Sunday May 16 2021 Forecast (8:09AM)

51 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 16-20)

A weak trough of low pressure will cross the region during the day today, and while the majority of the day and possibly all of the day will be rain-free in most of the region, there will be some varying amounts of cloudiness and some scattered shower activity developing with the passage of the disturbance. A cold front will cross the region from north to south Monday, another focus for some shower activity, and possibly even a thunderstorm. This leads to a stretch of fair weather starting Tuesday through midweek, along with a warming trend with high pressure building over the region both at the surface and aloft. However this opens the door to sea breezes, and by the end of the period we will have to keep an eye out for one of those can-be-sneaky back-door cold fronts that are often not picked out by medium range guidance.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms midday-afternoon. Highs 70-77 except cooler in some coastal areas. Wind SW up to 10 MPH except light sea breezes developing in coastal locations.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 66-73 except cooler in some coastal areas. Wind N up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72 coast, 73-80 inland. Wind S up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85 except 70-77 South Coast and 63-70 Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 77-84 except cooler in coastal areas and possibly cooler all areas later in the day. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH may turn NE later in the day.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 21-25)

High pressure aloft likely remains dominant early in the period but more high pressure at the surface to the north likely means cooler than previous days. Watch for low pressure from the west which may bring a shot at wet weather later in the period (May 24-25).

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 26-30)

Overall pattern looks dry and mild, but ocean’s influence likely keeps coastal areas cooler some of these days.

51 thoughts on “Sunday May 16 2021 Forecast (8:09AM)”

  1. Thank you, TK. ‘Tis a glorious weekend!

    Yesterday was a perfect day to pick up a few flowers for the deck. This was my view at twilight. If you look closely, the second photo just happened to catch a hummer having his nightcap.

    https://imgur.com/a/SOGzVsz

  4. Since I make many posts regarding my perception of awful spring weather ……

    This stretch of weather has been awesome ! Lots of 70s days, in a row and a good amount of strong sunshine too.

    And more to come. which of course makes me a bit concerned that we´ll freeze Memorial Day Weekend or for the first half of June, 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. It has been a nice stretch.

      We’ve had a tremendous amount of sun throughout 2021, even during the winter months.

    1. looking into it a little more, the center is forecast to parallel the west coast for a while, moving N or NNW and eventually landfall further north.

  7. Thanks TK.

    A nice stretch of weather indeed. We have finally rid ourselves of early spring chills. The tv mets even hinted at a touch of humidity Wednesday and Thursday. Our first ‘HHH’ of the season?

    Btw, I put away my winter coat yesterday, soon to go to the cleaners.
    🙂

    1. No it won’t be HHH. Not even remotely close to that.

      80+ and borderline moderate humidity, i.e. dew points in the 50s in May is not really that unusual but it’s definitely far below “HHH” criteria.

  9. FWIW, wind speeds this year-to-date in Boston so far are running below average. A few higher elevations are running near to slightly above average for wind speed, but in general, most of the population is living in areas that have been less windy than normal, not more.

        1. Interesting. Seems like a very windy spring to me. I’ll take your tv mets word for it, of course. 🙂

          1. The average wind speeds over a period of time (in this case they were showing meteorological spring-to-date I believe). So it’s definitely possible that some areas had a couple of events in which they saw stronger wind gusts than they’d seen recently. But when you add up all the wind and average it, the speeds in most of the region (with a few exceptions) were slightly lower than average. Sometimes those stats are not all that helpful since all you need is 1 or 2 stand-out events that may have caused damage and/or power outages to catch your attention. So it varies from region to region obviously.

            1. If I’m reading correctly, That’s what I was getting at. I’d also like to see the number of excessively windy days. I do believe we have had higher winds. I also believe we may well have had more days with high winds even though they don’t break records.

              Not sure if I’m explaining it well enough to make sense

              1. Makes sense. There was a cluster of wind events in there for sure. Some of the data, Blue Hill Obs for example, reported slightly above average wind speed, and I think Worcester did as well, but they were the exception. Regardless, there were a # of clustered events in there, and there were a few places that were slightly windier than average while the majority were not (Boston included).

    1. Whoa. I had to look at the radar. Seems you are not alone. Might be some activity down Jimmy James way. Heading to Mark’s area…or south of it??

  11. Shower here, big rain drops, perhaps a couple hundredths to a tenth inch of rain.

    I may have also heard a rumble of thunder.

  13. The darkening of the cumulus cloud(s) happened pretty quickly. I was sitting here and was surprised to here the rain drops hitting one of our windows, otherwise, I wouldn´t have had a clue something was developing overhead.

  15. Another local area with popping showers/thundershowers appears to be up by the cloverleaf, where Rte 93 and Rte 128 intersect.

          1. Nope.

            My mom used to tell me her father didn´t like it either.

            Once I can guage that there´s some flash/thunder separation, I will calm down a bit. But those few times a summer, when they are nearly instantaneous, I don´t do too well. 🙂 🙂

            1. Sorry to hear. I rather like it. But an instantaneous one will still make me jump. But I don’t run for cover. 🙂

  17. Thanks TK.

    Partly sunny here at the softball fields in Norwich but my son reports it is dark and thundering back home.

  18. A shot a nice (but short-lived) time lapse video from my 3rd floor window of the development / approach of a moderate shower here. The rain/wind forced me to end it just as the shower arrived. There was a rumble of thunder in the distance but that was from a separate cell moving through the Acton area at the time. Lightning detection did indicate a single cloud-to-ground strike near Grace Path in Acton on the southwest edge of the Spring Hill conservation land.

  20. Very dark clouds again.

    The radar makes me think the thunder clap I just heard came from the cell just to my southeast.

    Yet, the darkness of the clouds to our northwest look more threatening.

  22. Thanks, TK!

    The sun is shining, and raindrops are splattering on the window. The grand-toddler is so confused….

  23. Interesting cell moving thru Marlborough. JJ it looked as if the line that went by you hung around a bit. Did you get much rain?

  24. Well I gave up a rainbow for a nice little storm chase, but that’s ok because we have a nice sunset just about to unfold – the first 8:00 p.m. or later sunset of the year!

    Got some nice pics & time lapse on the way, and this followed a 2 hour walk around my local pond. Net photos / video today … 159. Ugh. And I thought I was already behind. 😛

  25. TK. Did you post a link to the time lapse you mentioned above? I’m not able to see it 🙁

    1. Are you referring to the one I shot at home? If so, it’s on my FB page (I think). 🙂

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