18 thoughts on “C-19 Chat Post – May 20 2021”

  1. Important study from Germany on masks or face coverings. They work, at least if not exposed to lots of viral load, in which case sophisticated N95 and other masks are required.
    https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1395444425719910400/photo/1

    BioNTech CEO (Pfizer’s partner) says mRNA vaccine 70% effective against Indian variant. That’s a considerable drop.

    Astra Zeneca vaccine is NOT effective at all against the South Africa variant, at least not against mild to moderate disease. They’re now analyzing severe disease and deaths.

  2. Public Health England – an agency I have more faith in than our CDC – now says the Indian variant, or B.1.617 lineage, is outcompeting the B.117. 160% increase in B.1.617 cases in England in 1 week. Will be the dominant virus soon. What’s interesting is that the virus `knows’ there are vaccines out there and is doing its darndest to evade them. Sure wish CDC were on top of this. If they were, they would NOT have done away with masks and distancing in indoor public spaces. It’s clearly premature. Same applies to doing away with gathering size limits. I’m now very uncomfortable with this, especially indoors.

    1. Sadly far too many may not have known but have believed our rush to get back to normal might well backfire. So far too many of our steps have and yet we do not learn

    2. I don’t understand Joshua. How is the virus “aware” of our vaccines?

      I certainly understand not literally, of course.

  3. More “good” news. I heard on NPR this afternoon that there is a new corona virus now spreading in Malaysia. It originated from dogs.

    Note: It is not the original SARS.

  4. Philip, great question on the virus being `aware’ of vaccines. Obviously it’s not to be taken literally. But, for a virus its purpose in life is to propagate, find hosts, and avoid “dead ends” as Fauci calls them; referring to vaccinated folks. In its quest for survival the virus mutates. The virus adopts as it were a trial and error method of mutating. Some mutations are more successful than others. The most successful ones will be those that evade vaccines. It’s clear the Indian variant or B.1.617 lineage of viruses is a highly successful one: 1. Much more transmissible than the Wuhan 1.0 version, but also the Italian wild type and the British B.117; 2. More vaccine-elusive than any of the variants thus far. And, its by-product, which is just unfortunate happenstance, is more lethality.

    Vicki, Moderna hasn’t put out a statement one way or another. I know that studies are underway. My guess is the data will be similar for Moderna. 70% is still good, by the way, but: 1. That’s a company estimate, not a peer-reviewed estimate; 2. It’s clear the virus is getting better and better at evasion.

    I know I’ve said this before, but my father – a physician – repeatedly stated, “mother nature [in this case, referring to viruses and bacteria and infectious diseases in general] is hell-bent on getting you, we always have to be prepared and be one step ahead.” The biggest killers throughout human history have been and continue to be infectious diseases: In the past it was the plague, Spanish Flu, many mosquito- and water-borne illnesses, but also a range of communicable diseases like pneumonia, scarlet fever, and measles. Today, it’s malaria (a non-communicable infectious disease), TB, pneumonia, HIV, and now coronavirus. There will be more of these diseases moving forward. It’s inevitable.

      1. Don’t know. In India it appears to be impacting a younger population more than other variants. But I am unsure of children.

  5. Vaccines have made a significant difference in the U.S.. This is very encouraging. But I’m still concerned about the B.1.617 lineage variant., and P.1, too (but less so because it appears vaccines do well against P.1). Information in this UK article caught my attention, and it behooves policymakers (eg, CDC) in the US to monitor and take a more cautious approach. i’m also talking to you, Governor Baker.
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/bolton-hospital-covd-indian-variant-b1850870.html

  6. UK: Today, highest number of daily cases since April 19th; highest number of hospitalizations since April 24th. PM office says “home quarantine system not working.” Good grief. This is not the news I wanted to hear. UK is still doing MUCH better, relatively speaking, than we are, and we’re doing much better than we were. But, in the UK they view the variants differently than here; more cautious and clearly more worried. May be because their go-to vaccine made by Astra Zeneca loses efficacy against the Indian variant. But Pfizer/Moderna score in roughly the same ballpark area of 65-70% efficacy as AZ. I don’t know what to think.

    1. It seems to me that the U.K. looks ahead and learns from what happened behind. Maybe I’m wrong. Clearly, we are too busy using our success for political gain and also pandering to political groups to do that

  7. Joshua, in Bakers presser from Moderna a bit ago, a spokesperson said they are developing vaccines for the variants. Although, a rollout of boosters is a long way off.

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