Saturday May 22 2021 Forecast (8:48AM)

66 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 22-26)

This weekend will feature a preview of summer, followed by a reminder on Monday that it is not really summer just yet, followed by a reminder toward the middle of next week that summer is just right around the corner. Fickle. Fitting. Fast-changing. That’s our weather, and it will be on display for you to love, loathe, or just experience, depending on your preference(s). We start today where we have been for a couple days now, on the eastern side of an upper level ridge of high pressure, where the wind above us is blowing from the northwest, but at the surface a general southerly to westerly air flow means higher humidity and very warm to even hot conditions this weekend. With a fair amount of cloud cover much of the time today, the temperature will not reach the levels it would have under a clear sky with full sunshine, but you will notice it becoming rather warm after a modestly mild start, and the most sensitive will notice an uptick in humidity as we go through the day. The northwesterly air flow above us will be transporting yet another disturbance down across New England from Canada, and this, combined with what heating we do get from the sun, will pop a few isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm this afternoon and early evening. While most areas will likely escape this activity, the few areas that do see it can be visited by a brief downpour but more likely a lighter shower. Bottom line: you probably won’t get wet, but if you do, it won’t last long. Sunday will feature more sunshine but a bit more wind ahead of an approaching cold front which will be heading rapidly southward out of Canada into New England. Before it arrives, many areas will make a run at 90 and some may reach or exceed it for the first time this year. While the dynamics are not there for a widespread thunderstorm outbreak, the front is likely to trigger at least scattered showers and storms, a few of which may be on the strong side. So if you have outdoor plans, pay attention to the sky (and a radar app if you have one), especially during the afternoon. By Sunday night, the front will be exiting via the South Coast and we’ll already be feeling the change to a much cooler air mass, which will be in control of Monday’s weather as high pressure moves in from southeastern Canada. Many areas will be 18 to 25 degrees cooler for high temperature on Monday than they will be on Sunday. But this cool-down will be short-lived, as the same high pressure area that brings the cool air will settle to the south of New England by Tuesday and the return flow around it from the southwest and west will warm us right back up, lasting into Wednesday when we may heat up about as much as we do on Sunday. And another front will approach later Wednesday with a shower and thunderstorm threat, but that being 5 days away I can’t speculate much on that particular event at this point.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening. Increasing humidity – dew point approaching 60. Highs 68-75 South Coast, 75-82 southeastern MA not at immediate coast, and 83-90 elsewhere. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH early, becoming SW 5-15 MPH, but local sea breeze possible.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with possible showers. Clearing overnight. Areas of ground fog forming. Lows 58-65. Humid – dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny morning-midday. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms afternoon. Humid – dew point 60s. Highs 85-92 except 78-85 South Coast and 70-77 Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-57. Much drier – dew point falling to 40s. Wind NW to N 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 62-69, coolest coast. Wind N to NE 10-20 MPH, diminishing late.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 70-77. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. More humid. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Humid – dew point over 60. Highs 85-92 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 27-31)

High pressure from Canada brings cooler/dry weather May 27. Uncertainly on how the last several days of May play out, including the May 29-31 Memorial Day Weekend. For now thinking we may need to watch for a wave of low pressure bringing some wet weather around May 28-29 then high pressure moving in with drier weather, but this is very low confidence and may look rather different to me just 24 hours from now.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 1-5)

Air mass boundary in area the first several day of June with variable temperatures and at least a couple opportunities for showers/thunderstorms. No early indications of any extreme temperatures.

66 thoughts on “Saturday May 22 2021 Forecast (8:48AM)”

    1. Hard to know.
      That may be one parameter we really cannot forecast in advance.
      My inkling going toward the summer is that we’re going to have kind of a normalish summer so does that mean a normalish thunderstorm risk? We will find out.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Please keep the HHH the H out of here on Wednesday.
    My wife gets her 2nd Moderna that day and doesn’t
    need to be sick from the HHH before getting the shot
    and getting sicker.

    1. I think the only way we could avoid that is if the timing of features is a little faster than currently expected and/or the entire synoptic set-up is a little further south than currently modeled.

        1. All we can do is hope. I’d be wrong a thousand times over if it meant it was easier for her that day. Fingers crossed. We’ll monitor.

  9. JpDave ….. TK has 62F to 69F Monday, low dewpoints and cool nights Sunday night and Monday night and not a really warm Tuesday.

    I hope this preceeding weather to Wednesday will keep your house cool and can help your wife out leading up to Wednesday.

    I find with the cooler spring interludes, our house is slower to warmup this time of year on a hot day compared to mid summer, when the cooler breaks aren´t as cool or dry.

    Hope it works out Wednesday !

    1. Thanks Tom.

      We’ll see how it goes. We may be able to change the appt to Tues or Thurs. Or I install the ACs, as much as my wife hates them.
      Sort of a necessary evil.

  10. Including today, Logan has had a high temp of 70F or greater 9 of the last 10 days.

    Logan´s daily average temp has been above average 11 days in a row (not including today).

    Through yesterday, the average temp for May is running 3.2F above average.

    And all the sunshine we have had.

    I can´t remember a May like this before. Its like we´ve been experiencing June 3 to 4 weeks early.

    1. And don’t forget the Ocean Temperature.

      It is now sitting at 57,2 F, a whopping 5.26 degrees above average. That says it all!!

      1. Great point !

        I was standing in the ocean up to my shins last night for a while. It doesn´t hurt and after a while, I was somewhat getting used to it.

        Nice swells rolling in from the system north of Bermuda.

        1. Rip tide concerns this weekend.

          That 57 is 16 miles off shore. I wonder what the temp
          is at the beaches? Could be close to 60.

          I remember as a kid swimming at Nantasket with water temp 58 (they used to post water temp at the life guard station).

  11. JPD, I just thought of a suggestion. Could you locate a “walk-in” vaccination center for your wife? I would think that by now there should be a number of them around the city, maybe right in your neighborhood. Then you could go on any day you prefer.

    2. We have the appointment at a health center less than 3 miles from the house. Couldn’t be much better for us. 🙂

    1. For the life of me, I don’t know why I never got to see this
      band live in concert????????????????????????????????????????

    2. Oh yeah, great song !

      I didn´t see Zeppelin in concert either, but saw Page and Plant in the mid 90s.

      1. Cool. Wish I could have seen them. I have seen plenty of others, My big regrets were not seeing:

        The Who
        The Beatles
        Led Zeppelin

        Although, honestly, I never cared for the Beatles all that much. My friends were Beatles fans, while the Rolling Stones was my band. (yes saw the Stones at the old Boston Garden in 1965!) 🙂 Dating myself there.

        Call me crazy, but one song of theirs I really liked was
        Route 66. I still play that one all of the time. I love that rt 66 went right through the center of Flagstaff, AZ. 🙂 (Now US Rt. 40)

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxhLVMhsbAE

          1. Starring Martin Milner who went on to Adam-12 from 1968-1975. It’s currently on MeTv weekdays 5-6 pm. It shows what good policing should be, imo.

  16. First time having AC on but more for pollen than cooling. My dark grey car is yellow. I wash the deck table three times a day ans that really isn’t enough. I want to douse my eyes with drops. And yet I still love this weather

    And I hate closing windows. Maybe a heavy shower will tame the yellow evil.

    A Sutton fiend posted on her FB page today that she loves New England and all of its seasons but she has decided the best season of all is deck sitting season. Guess it is obvious why we are friends

    1. Yes ! My eyes are irritated in the morning.

      Cars are green also.

      I do like when we get a shower in these instances and the puddles have that yellow/greenish rim of pollen all around.

      1. I don’t know if there is still smoke in the air. If so, that would make what is typically hard on the eyes even worse.

  18. To cool off …. cross the Cape Cod Bridges. At 1pm, every reporting ob has a temperature below 70F.

  22. At Logan, 88F/DP 57

    If we had full sunshine they would easily get to the record 93 (1959).

    First 90 easily tomorrow?

    1. If the timing of the cold front doesn´t change, I was thinking the same thing Philip about tomorrow.

      I think tomorrow may feature more sun (less mid and high cloud cover) and the wind may at some point go more westerly, as opposed to today´s SSW.

      If these 2 things happen, perhaps 91F – 93F ?????????????

    2. Full sun probably would have gotten them to 90, maybe. 93 was never going to happen today.

      I’ll give them a 90 or 91 tops tomorrow so long as the wind is “west enough”.

  23. Meso West says Logan hit 90 today. It registered 90 on my equipment briefly at 1:59PM during a period of more sunshine.

  24. Thank you, TK.

    Punishing humidity today for the runner in me. But I must get used to it, so I ran 9 miles during the peak heat period. It’s the only way to get acclimated. The quart of ice water I drank after returning from my jog and the old head in the freezer routine brought me back to my senses.

    You gotta love New England. So many changes, so much seasonality. It turns us into amphibians. We must adapt. Of course, we’re not amphibians, so this explains the difficulty the body has in adjusting.

  25. Concerned about the algae and (cyano)bacteria levels in the Esplanade Lagoon, and possibly in the Charles, too. Already turning dark green, which suggests higher cyanobacteria levels. And, I’m seeing A LOT of dead fish, and not just older ones. The cormorants’ diet consists of the fish in the Charles. I’m still seeing them catch fish, and I also still see schools of young fish swimming near the edge of the lagoon. But I am concerned about the eco-balance. This would be the second straight year of elevated levels of cyanobacteria.

  32. Speaking of impressive…

    Great wins for the Bruins yesterday over the Caps and the Islanders over Pittsburgh today. Wouldn’t that be something if we had an Islanders/Bruins matchup in the East Finals?

  35. The system that is Ana and was a decent sized low for days has been a great wave generator.

    The swells are the biggest yet.

    With the light winds, the surface of the ocean is nearly calm, so you can see the swells up way out.

    Dozens of surfers currently by Brant Rock Village at one of the big wave spots.

    1. I am seeing video on the Humarock page of a woman overboard at the mouth of the north river. At the best of times, the current there is beyond nasty. Prayers for her…just terrifying

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