Sunday May 23 2021 Forecast (7:26AM)

74 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 23-27)

The feel of summer will be in full force today, but this is not really that unusual for late May, as we tend to get shots of summertime heat and a bit of humidity like this on maybe 2 out of 3 years in May across the region. Regardless, this stretch is about to come to an abrupt end tonight after a sharp cold front moves across the region. While the dynamics are not great, they are enough that the front will likely trigger a broken line or at least a line / zone of scattered showers and thunderstorms as it moves across the region tonight. And then in comes a brief but sharp shot of cool air for Monday, delivered by Canadian high pressure. But this won’t last long as the high ends up south of the region by Tuesday and a warm front moves in from the west, bringing clouds, higher humidity, and a shower chance. The warm front’s passage will introduce a shot of hotter and humid weather for Wednesday, which itself won’t last long as another cold front arrives later in the day or at night with a shower and thunderstorm threat, and a return to cooler and drier weather once again for Thursday, but this time not as strong a push of cool air as the one we will see tonight and Monday.

TODAY: Mostly sunny through midday. Variably cloudy with passing showers and thunderstorms possible from north to south across the region during the afternoon. Highs 86-93 except 78-85 South Coast and 70-77 Cape Cod. Wind W 10-20 MPH. Humid – dew point over 60. Wind SW 10-20 MPH but can be variable with locally strong gusts near any storms.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 48-55. Much drier – dew point falling to 40s. Wind NW to N 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 62-69, coolest coast. Wind N to NE 10-20 MPH, diminishing late.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 70-77. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. More humid. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of late-day showers/thunderstorms. Humid – dew point over 60. Highs 85-92 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers/thunderstorms early, then clearing. Lows 50-57. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 28 – JUNE 1)

There continues to be conflicting guidance regarding the last several days of May, including the May 29-31 Memorial Day Weekend. Continuing with the thought process of increased moisture in the area and a chance of some wet weather May 28, maybe into May 29 before high pressure takes over with drier weather for the balance of the long weekend and possibly through June 1. Still not a very high confidence outlook.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 2-6)

Looking for a frontal boundary in the region with more moisture and some wet weather opportunities and a lack of temperature extremes.

74 thoughts on “Sunday May 23 2021 Forecast (7:26AM)”

  3. Thanks TK !

    80F at Logan at 9am.

    Lots of good weather today.

    The high temps, what towns get a shower/storm and is there a sudden temp drop along the immediate coast late afternoon if the wind becomes north ?

  6. Very sad ending to boating accident at mouth of the north river by 4th cliff Humarock. Only two of three folks were able to be rescued

  7. 82 currently at Logan, however, of note the wind is
    WNW at 12 mph. With that wind direction, maximum high temperatures for the conditions could be realized.

    Interesting that models show 850 mb temps about 15 degrees C, perhaps 16 tops. That would yield high temps of 86-90 or thereabouts. Not sure how far into the 90s we go today,
    UNLESS the models are INCORRECT about 850 mb temperatures.

    1. From NWS

      With visible satellite imagery
      showing plenty of sunshine, still expecting many locations to
      hit the upper 80s to low 90s (a few mid 90s readings wouldn`t be
      at all surprising). For reference, daily record highs for our
      four climate sites: BOS 93F, BDL 96F, PVD 94F and ORH 89F all
      set in 1964.

    2. Perhaps the perfect downsloping wind direction to add a couple degrees to what the 850 mb temps should equate to for high temps ?????????????

  8. Thanks TK
    I am going to be tuned in to the PGA Championship to see if my favorite golfer Phil Mickelson makes history and becomes the oldest person to win a major. Then I get to enjoy watching my Knicks for the first time in the playoffs since 2013.

      1. We are also. I’m hoping he can stay ahead of his nerves. Did I read he’d be oldest to win a major or did I make that up?

        1. I´m not sure if he would be the oldest.

          I know Jack was 46 when he won the Masters in 1986.

          That was amazing to watch and watching yesterday, I kept thinking about that. That was a great final round to watch. 35 years ago, my goodness.

  9. I thought when he lost the 2016 Open Championship that was going to be his last time to be able to win a major. He shot 6 under 65 and lost to Henrik Stenson who shot a 62. If Phil wins this would be his sixth major win. I was saying to someone the other day if he did not golf in the Tiger era he would be looked at as the greatest golfer since Jack Nickalus.

    1. I think he and Koepka are the final group ???

      They´ve had seabreezes, I think, the first 3 rounds, but they may hold onto a landbreeze today with mid 90s.

      If so, those putting greens are going to be fast !!

  10. Tom he is in the final group with Brooks Koepka. They tee of at 2:30 this afternoon.
    Vicki you are correct if Phil wins he would be the oldest golfer to win a major. He is 50 years old and next month will turn 51.

  12. Thanks TK.

    Had my first DD iced coffee of the year, unusually early. I believe last year it wasn’t until June. It will certainly be back to “hot” for tomorrow! 🙂

    Again, sorry for the above post. Thanks again TK for that Covid-19 Page as well.

    1. No problem. I can erase the mistakenly posted version above since you re-posted on the other page.

      I will have iced coffees occasionally in the cold season too, depending on the day. If it’s a relatively “mild” winter day and I’m on the way home from work driving in the sunshine, I will sometimes grab an iced instead of a hot if I stop somewhere (McD or DD, sometimes Honey Dew, which are all either directly or slightly indirectly on my home routes).

  17. We’re at 86 here in JP.

    Btw, the ocean has warmed to 60.4 degrees, a whopping 8 degrees above average. That is more than 3 standard deviations
    from Average. In fact it is 3.4 standard deviations. That is pretty
    significant!

      1. Matt, it is based on 30 years of data that I used in my app,
        ending in 2018 or 2019. I downloaded the data from a NOAA site. I have not as of yet added the new data in there.

  19. SPC outlook remains unchanged. SNE in a marginal risk for severe.

    …Northeast States…
    Convective coverage will likely remain sparse owing to modest
    convergence along a predominately west/east-oriented cold front,
    which will be pushing south across the region this afternoon.
    Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, surface temperatures warming
    into the 80s amid upper 50s to low 60s dew points should support
    weak buoyancy with MLCAPE of 250-750 J/kg. Along the periphery of a
    mid-level speed max ejecting across northern Maine, adequate and
    nearly unidirectional deep-layer shear will exist for a few cells
    capable of producing locally damaging winds.

  20. If I´m reading the ob correctly, though Logan reported 88F at 1pm and 89F at 2pm, I think it touched 90F sometime between 1 and 2pm as its saying a 6hr high temp of 90F.

  23. Very hot morning out in the field in pembroke today . We started around 8:30 & was done at noontime . Luckily the very nice customer filled a cooler of ice & water . Thanks Tk for the weekend forecast

  24. Down to 84 after topping out at 91 earlier.
    Dark in the house, but I don’t think we’ll see a drop of rain here.

    1. Sorry didn’t see your post. Was typing. Hard to tell if it will miss us but I think so. Wind really picking up

  26. Looks as if the worst of that line will slip to my east. Getting pretty dark to WNW. Wind is picking up

        1. I like to look at the composite reflectivity. Gives a composite at all levels.

          In thunderstorms, always look at the velocity display under either digital or or super resolution. It will show any t-storm rotation.

          The correlation Coefficient can be helpful in locating the rain/snow line in Winter.

          Here is some more information

          https://blog.radarscope.app/what-does-differential-reflectivity-and-correlation-coefficient-tell-us#:~:text=The%20Correlation%20Coefficient%20is%20a,value%20from%200%20to%201.05.&text=Meteorological%20echoes%20will%20typically%20have,have%20values%20less%20than%200.8.

          Best play around with all of the options.

          Good luck and enjoy

  30. Down to 82 here. I do believe that the front
    is passing through now or just barely past us within the last few minutes. Cooler air is slowly filtering in.

  31. Nice downpours in a very narrow strip just south of Taunton. This could have happened anywhere today, but most places were hit with lighter showers or nothing at all. Knew it wasn’t going to be everybody. And Logan landed right about where they were expected to for a high temp. I jinxed them the other day when I said they’d reach 90 after their “normal” first date. 😉

      1. What a moment for golf! It was impressive by itself, but even more so on this course. Wow!

        1. I agree. And in more ways than one. Kiawah arrived in South Carolina just after Mac’s parents retired in Mt Pleasant. They were so proud to have in their state.

          1989 and on the weather side of things much construction was destroyed with Hugo

  33. So happy Phil Mickelson won! Phil won’t need that special exemption for the U.S. Open now.

  34. I hope the Penguins and Islanders play 3 more, quadruple OT games.

    The Islanders are the Bruins, very strong defensively with decent scoring ability. Other than the Bruins getting home ice, I want nothing to do with the Islanders.

    I think the Bruins defense would hold the Penguins in check and the Penguins are not as strong defensively.

    1. This is always tough for me. I like to set-up what-if scenarios. If the Bruins were to lose in the 2nd round, I’d much rather it be to the Islanders who have been my #2 team for decades. 🙂 But beating the Penguins would be highly satisfying, and the way the Bruins are playing right now, they can beat anybody if they play this game. So I guess it really doesn’t matter. 🙂 But either way, the B’s will be getting a bit more rest & practice than their opponent will….

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