Tuesday May 25 2021 Forecast (7:22AM)

36 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 25-29)

The Canadian high pressure area that brought us a cool and breezy day yesterday is now to the south of the region and the return flow arrives with a warmer southwesterly wind today, continuing into Wednesday with the return of heat and higher humidity. A cold front will charge across the region late Wednesday with a shower and thunderstorm threat. Another high pressure area moves toward the region but hangs to the northwest on Thursday, but close enough for drier and slightly cooler weather. The cooling trend will continue later in the week but there will be a wet weather threat later Friday to early Saturday as low pressure passes south of the region, but probably close enough to involve us in its moisture envelope…

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 68-73 South Coast, 74-79 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 58-65. Increasingly humid with dew point rising toward 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of late-day showers/thunderstorms. Humid – dew point over 60. Highs 85-92 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers/thunderstorms early, then clearing. Lows 52-59. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 51-58. Wind N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain by late in the day. Highs 62-69. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows 48-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain or drizzle to start, then clearing. Highs 55-62. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 30 – JUNE 3)

High pressure is expected to dominate the weather for the remainder of the Memorial Day Weekend (May 30-31) with dry weather and below to near normal temperatures . A series of disturbances will move through the region during the first few days of June with a couple opportunities for unsettled weather, but warmer and somewhat more humid conditions.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 4-8)

A frontal boundary may be hanging around the region with additional opportunities for showery weather. No extreme temperatures are indicated.

36 thoughts on “Tuesday May 25 2021 Forecast (7:22AM)”

  3. Thanks Tk . I sure hope I can get Saturday in I need about 3 hours in the morning for job in Plymouth.

  5. JPD ..sending positive thoughts for Mrs OS and hoping if there is any reaction that it is mild. Is her appointment late day like I seem to recall was the first?

    1. Will there be a watch tomorrow? It depends upon how things look tomorrow. I suppose it is possible.

        1. I thought so. We’ll see how it looks tomorrow.
          I think for Eastern sections, we’re lucky the actions
          will come perhaps too late in the day for us, or as usual, it runs in to more stable air.

  8. NWS discussion concerning severe threat tomorrow

    The main forecast concern is the potential for a few strong to
    severe t-storms in the afternoon in the interior. Mid level
    shortwave will be moving across Gt Lakes with a pre-frontal trough
    moving into SNE in the afternoon which will be a focus for
    convection. Decent instability develops in the interior with CAPES
    1000-1500 J/kg and increasing wind field results in deep layer shear
    30-35 kt supporting storm organization and potential severe weather.
    CAMs are showing some broken line segments moving into interior SNE
    during afternoon with damaging wind being the main threat. However,
    forecast soundings also show decent turning in the lowest 3km in the
    CT valley with effective SRH 100-200 m2/s2, aided by backed low
    level flow and there is favorable 0-3km CAPE, so can`t rule out an
    isolated tornado with any discrete storms. Will continue to monitor
    with later forecasts.

  10. I know it can be disappointing when thunderstorms hit the marine layer and fall apart or the front comes through too late, missing max heating ….. with that said …..

    With the NWS discussion about tomorrow, the SPC´s tornado/wind/hail outlook and dp´s likely to be a little higher than Sunday in the mid to maybe upper 60s, I think it might be good to be in eastern sections tomorrow on this one. Hopefully, nothing too severe in eastern NYS or western/central New England.

    1. I agree totally.

      Here’s hoping the wind has a good deal of Southerly component.

      Good for 2 reasons:

      1. It puts a cap on the temperature rise
      2. It provides somewhat of that marine layer discussed above by Tom, greatly reducing the risk of severe weather

          1. Unfortunately, it won’t stop dewpoints from rising well into the 60s…oh well, only a one day stand thankfully.

            1. That much is true. If anything that wind could actually contribute to the dp rising a bit more.

          2. FWIW, 3KM NAM has Boston top out at 88 with dp 67.
            We’ll really feel that DP tomorrow!!!!

  11. Thanks TK. SPC will update the outlook for tomorrow around 130pm. Western areas of sne look to have the best shot at a locally strong or severe thunderstorm tomorrow.

    1. Looks like the biggest threat will be Eastern NY, Berkshires, Southern VT and SW New Hampshire.

  13. There will be a severe t-storm watch tomorrow and I feel the most likely place for this will be Worcester County N & W. I feel the greatest risk for t-storms with damaging wind (maybe hail) will be mostly near and west of the CT River, maybe a little further eastward than that in northern New England far enough away from the ocean’s stabilizing influence.

    This is pretty much on par for this kind of event at this time of year (late spring).

    Just have to figure out finer details … frontal timing, any pre frontal troughing, outflow boundaries, etc. as we get into tomorrow.

    As far as Memorial Day Weekend, today I continue to lean toward the ECMWF’s solution over the GFS’s slightly wetter one. I do leave the door open for wet weather basically Fri PM through Sat AM and with cautious optimism I think we’re dry from there. Of course we need rain, so a few rainy days would be beneficial. That would just piss most people off if they happened on a holiday weekend, especially the closest one we’ve had to “normal” in well over a year. But hey, those are the folks that waste time & energy being angry about something they can’t control. 😉 I will take whatever comes, but yes, it does look mostly dry right now.

    1. Thanks for your thoughts TK. I will be watching the radar tomorrow to see if anything develops.

    3. Tk do you think I can get an edging & mulching job in Plymouth done Saturday morning

  14. Nicer weather coming to the British Isles. Today was rainy in London and in the 50s. But it’s going to brighten up later this week and weekend, and even warm up to near 70F. Spoke to my daughter, who’s now working for Penguin books. She’s joining the company’s softball team (not cricket, not rounders) and will be playing on one of the many Regent’s Park fields (pitches) Thursday evening.

  15. Thank you, TK.

    I’ll be driving back here from Westborough tomorrow around 3:30, so I sure hope any severe weather holds up till after 4:15!

  16. 18z GFS really wants to turn Memorial Day Weekend into a 3-day cloud & occasional rain party. It and the ECMWF continue to sing different tunes.

    Haven’t seen any TV mets’ thoughts on this yet. You know mine. NWS is with me. AccuWeather is with the GFS. Someone’s gonna be wrong!

    1. The general consensus on the TV folks leans in agreement with my forecast at this time.

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