Friday May 28 2021 Forecast (7:39AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (MAY 28 – JUNE 1)

The weather is going to be much cooler than it has been recently and on the unsettled side as we head into and through the Memorial Day Weekend. That much has become clear. The little details of the day-to-day weather are being worked out in each forecast update, and it’s coming into focus that it looks like our wettest weather will be tonight and Saturday morning and during the day Sunday. Sunday’s timing is a little faster than what was indicated yesterday. While I’m not ready to declare Monday a “save”, there is still a chance of some shower activity based on what I see now, but we may salvage part of that day with some dry weather and even some sun. Basically, the unsettled weather is going to the the result of two low pressure areas. The first one comes at the region via the Ohio Valley tonight into Saturday, passing just to the south on a frontal boundary sitting there. We’ll have a chilly northeast to east wind during this. Not atypical for late spring, while some of us were at or above 90 just a couple days ago, most of us will be stuck in the 50s, even some upper 40s, during Saturday and Sunday. We get a break in the rain as the first low moves away during Saturday, but a second low pressure area forming on the boundary to the south will then be pulled northward right into New England on Sunday, bringing the rain back. There is still a little bit of conflict among the various computer guidance about how far west this low tracks, with some guidance bringing it far enough west that we get into a more humid southerly air flow for a time Sunday night into Monday, ending that with a round of showers before the wind switches to north, while other guidance keeps that low center further east and keeps us on its cooler side, but also pulls it out of here quickly enough so that the majority of Memorial Day Monday is dry. At the moment, my leaning is toward the second scenario, but not without some threat of wet weather to at least start the day before potential improvement. There will still be some fine-tuning needed for this forecast. By Tuesday, high pressure will be offshore to the southeast of New England and we’ll see immediate results in the form of warmer weather to welcome June.

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Rain arrives west to east late afternoon / evening. Highs 60-67. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Lows 41-48. Wind E 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain tapering to drizzle then ending by late morning. Highs 48-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain returning south to north in the morning. Areas of fog. Highs 50-57. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog and drizzle. Lows 43-50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning. Partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 60-67. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog possible. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 71-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 7-10 (JUNE 2-6)

Seasonably warm, more humid, and episodes of isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms with the general pattern likely to feature high pressure offshore, high pressure in Canada, and a weak boundary nearby. An intrusion of cooler air is possible around June 4-5, but not certain.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 7-11)

Overall idea right now is similar pattern will continue.

79 thoughts on “Friday May 28 2021 Forecast (7:39AM)”

    1. Right now I am thinking each batch is good for a quarter of an inch to three quarters of an inch with locally one to two inch amounts possible.

  7. Thank you, TK. It seems a tad chilly as I sit on deck in shorts and a tee. Might not help that my hair is still wet from my shower. Still …..a glorious morning.

  8. Thanks TK.

    According to the tv mets, both systems should produce at least 1 inch apiece.

    I would say that should clear out the Drought Monitor map for quite awhile.

  10. There was solid rain forecast to the Mass/NH border on previous runs for tonight thru tomorrow morning.

    I think the 12z NAM and 12z 3K NAM may have even come a bit further north, throwing solid rains up to central VT. NH, etc and extending the very heavy south coast and SE Mass rains into central Mass as well.

    Also, closer to the event now, little more emphasis today on how chilly it will be tomorrow.

  11. 12Z 3KM NAM total qpf for 1st system tonight through tomorrow:

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2021052812/033/qpf_acc.us_ne.png

    Actually provides a bit of snow up North

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2021052812/033/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    Same charts for 12Z NAM

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2021052812/033/qpf_acc.us_ne.png

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2021052812/033/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    HRRR keeps the main axis a bit more South. Here is total Qpf

    https://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2021052812/033/qpf_acc.us_ne.png

    Shows not snow up North, because the main precip shield doesn’t make it there.

    1. Thanks Joshua. I’ll share with my granddaughter who has been enjoying the documentaries on Disney+. She was excited to tell me that one was on hurricanes

  13. Thanks TK.

    The 12z NAM has a total 4.0-4.5″ of rain across a good portion of SNE for both systems. Mind you I had 1.10″ at my house from those storms Wednesday night and it looks like another period of unsettled weather is likely later next week. Could literally end up pulling 7 or 8″ of rain out of this whole thing in less than 10 days. I think drought will be last things on our minds after next week!

    As far as this weekend, I have pretty much written off Saturday and Sunday. While the steady rain may be over by midday Saturday, I am sure the remainder of the afternoon will end up cloudy, cool and raw with mist and drizzle. The quicker arrival of the second system should time out perfectly to ruin Sunday.

    The saving grace is that Memorial day should end up decent with that second system hightailing it out of here. In addition to some sun, the GFS has highs pushing 70 in many areas. We’ll take what we can get!

        1. There is Lake in the Clouds but doesn’t seem from your Tuckerman photo that there is enough snow in that area.

        2. No, it was posted on Twitter and then I clipped the image as I didn’t want to give it away.

    4. I’ll give you a few hints:

      1. You are all wrong 🙂
      2. It is not in Alaska or the Pacific NW
      3. This mountain is on a beer label

      3. Philip said it, but the only beer label that comes to mind is COORS and that would be Golden, Colorado. BUT that would be too simply wouldn’t it.

        You got us good Mark.

      4. You got the beer right and their facility is in Golden, CO but the picture where that was taken is in a different location.

  19. Just watched that PBS special for which Joshua posted a link.

    Please set aside an hour to watch. You will NOT be disappointed.
    Fantastic! I mean it was REALLY excellent!

  20. Mark’s Moutain.

    Colorado and Coors would be too easy.

    I am thinking this is the Bitterroot range in IADAHO.

      1. You said it was in a different location, you didn’t say it was in Colorado and I posted this before you posted that it was Coors.

  22. Indeed, it is in Colorado but nobody gets a gold star until they name the mountain and the town the picture was taken!

    Alas, you can probably just Google it now…

    1. Boulder and Rocky Mountain national park. Looks like more than one mountain in this photo. And I’m not googling ….that is no fun 🙂

      1. I remember how treasured it was to score a case of Coors here. A friend got one for me for my 21st birthday.

  24. How close are we to having snow flakes mixed in with tonight and early tomorrow’s event? I know it’s not going to happen, as even with dynamic cooling it won’t get below the low 40s at the surface. Still, I think we’re within 6 to 8 degrees F of there being wet snow flakes. Am I correct in saying this?

    2. Between 3Z tonight and 12Z tomorrow there could be a chance.
      850 mb temps go sub freezing and by 12z tomorrow there
      are some areas where 925 mb temps go sub freezing,

    2. I recognized it from the 2013 movie The Hateful Eight with Samuel L Jackson and Kurt Russell.

  26. TK, Jacob just showed 4 inches plus in SE Mass. do you think we will really get that high for the total of both events?

  27. Our assortment of media are not really in agreement of rainfall amounts. They range from saying “no flooding issues with an inch to an inch and a half of rainfall from the first system and lighter amounts from the second system” to “we’ll have to watch for flooding with up to 4 inches of rain”. No criticism here, just info.

    I wonder if you can guess which way I’m leaning? HINT: I had a good laugh when I saw the NAM earlier. If I’m wrong. I’ll own it. 🙂

    1. Thanks. Any convective feedback involved or not the right situation for model error with that?

    1. Man on Ch 5 said could be up to 3. I have no idea who he is. Will see if I can find out

  32. 43 degrees and pouring in Coventry CT. 1.10” in the rain gauge so far for round 1 with hours more of moderate to heavy rain to go. Shouldn’t be too hard now to eclipse 2” for this first system. Up to 4.7” now on the month.

    Had this storm occurred earlier in the spring I could easily see it being in the 30s now with wet snow mixing in.

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