New Year’s Weekend Forecast

106 Comments

8:29PM

A warm front will drift northward across southern New England tonight, putting a cap on any temperature drop. Low pressure will track across central and northern New England on New Year’s Eve with mild weather in the Boston area along with showery weather. Shower activity should be done in time for First Night outdoor activities. Temperatures will remain above freezing all night too, with the exception of some inland locations. New Year’s Day on Sunday will be fair and mild, but a change will be coming as several cold fronts and troughs move across the region from Sunday night through Monday night, resulting in some rain to snow shower activity as the cold air comes in waves. This will lead to the 2 coldest days of the season so far Tuesday & Wednesday of next week as some Arctic air is tapped in Canada and delivered to New England. There is still no significant snow in sight.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Temperature rising through the 30s but holding in the lower 30s in some inland areas. Wind variable from NE to SE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely, especially midday through mid afternoon. Chance of thunderstorms. Patchy fog. High 45-50. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to SW.

SATURDAY NIGHT – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Slow clearing. Patchy fog. Low 31-36. Wind SW shifting to W under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Mostly sunny. High 50-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered rain showers before midnight. Isolated snow showers after midnight. Low 30-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered snow or rain showers during the day. Chance of a snow squall in the evening. High 40-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 15. High 25.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 20.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 10. High 30.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 20. High 35.

106 thoughts on “New Year’s Weekend Forecast”

  1. Thanks for the update TK! 🙂

    John…I want to wish you and your family a Happy New Year as well! 🙂

    Happy New Year to all! 🙂

  2. Scott mentioned that 1968-69 was an El Nino winter. Speaking of such, Henry Margusity suggested that this winter could go from La Nina to El Nino come February.

    TK…is this really possible?

    1. El Nino is what we had last winter is that right. And also is that the worst of the
      two. I think I may have that wrong. La Nina was what we had last winter right,
      but with the Greenland Block. Anyway’s could sombody explain on both of them, and If this did turn into El Nino what that would mean.

      1. Last year we had a moderate to strong La Nina.
        Like this year with the La Nina, we’ve had the southeast riding, and it’s been able to force storms west of us, allowing us to warm and and rain. Last year we had the blocking in place, which prevented the ridging from getting too far north, which allowed storms to travel east of us, which gets us the snow.
        Last year as soon as we lost the blocking, the southeast ridge took control for the rest of the winter because of the strong La Nina.
        I don’t think El Nino will become established during this winter.

  3. Coastal- did BM try to contact you. He said thank’s for the offer but as of 8:20 has received no emails. Can you check to see if we have the right email down. Ok I am on
    a mission to get him on here. On another note It may or may not have been him.

  4. Weird I responded to the post from Bm and It did not post. The only reason why I am going over there is to reel him in, It would be like catching that big Tuna.

    1. John see mycomment to Rainshine yesterday. BZ had ablog problem. Random posts just never show up. Theyhave lost tons of regulars on all of their blogs

  7. The warm air literally surrounds us…….Cape Cod, all in the low 50s……Even the Buoy around Acadia National Park in far downeast Maine is reporting 46F with a SE wind, showing the mild air transporting northward very easily over the ocean. Buffalo, NY is 44F with a SW wind and its above us….Mt. Washington is 25F……… Even in a mild autumn/early winter, there comes a time when dislodging surface cold air becomes tough to do and I think we’ve reached that time.

  8. I wish everyone a Happy New Year!!! Its been a great year with this blog that TK has setup. I have enjoyed hearing all your thoughts on weather sports etc. The best part is it remains civil here.
    Anyone Have Any Bold Weather Predictions For 2012?? I Would Love To Hear What You All Think!
    I am thinking we have a Major Noreaster before the winter is out
    2-3 big thunderstorm days but no repeat of what happened on June 1st
    Hurricanes and tropical storms will stay away from New England although we could get remenants up here.
    Will see how these hold up.

  9. First of all, I would like to wish everybody a Happy and Healthy New Year! I am very grateful to be part of this blog – sharing my passion of the weather with people who love the weather as much as I do! And this is a great blog – TK – thank you so much!

    JJ – here are my predictions for 2012.
    I believe that starting sometime in Feb. we will get a Major Noreaster which will lead to more frequent snowstorms right into the end of March. I believe we will still have snow on the ground in mid-April. Temps. are going to continue to fluctuate up and down.
    I also am thinking we are going to have a very warm-hot but dry summer – but any thunderstorms we get will be on the strong side. I will go for 4-5 big thunderstorms days and at least 2 tornado watches. (I don’t want anything bad to happen). I don’t see June 1st happening this year – I don’t think.
    I do believe we will get a hurricane in New England – worse than Irene – and some misses.
    Next fall I see to be wet and cool.
    Sorry to sound so pessimistic and ‘though I like the excitement of thunderstorms I don’t like the bad things they can cause – I just feel things are changing. I can’t give any specific or scientific reasons, just what I feel.

    1. Hopefully you dont have to head southward today. At the surface, the warm air seems to be having a tough time making any progress. Its still not much above freezing, even in Boston.

  11. I hope you all have a safe New Year’s Eve, whether you are celebrating out, at home, or sleeping… 😉

    And in advance, a Happy 2012 to all of you! Thanks for being part of Woods Hill Weather during its first year of existence! One of the highlights of the blog’s first year is winning the contest on WBZ-TV, but the real highlight is all of the faithful readers and bloggers! Thanks for remaining civil to each other, even in our occasional disagreement. I know this will continue in the year ahead.

    Predictions for 2012 (based partly on science and largely on intuition):

    January: up and down temps, may see a cold wave 2nd half of month, but drier than normal, though despite this we will have to remove snow a couple of times.
    February/March: Temperatures oscillate frequently and for all their extremes may end up near normal, stormy periods, with 1, possibly 2, snowstorms of greater than 6 inches (in general). If everything comes together, one blockbuster (foot+) snowstorm may occur, and it will be on a weekend, because I want it to be on a weekend. 🙂
    April/May: Cooler than normal Spring with a drying trend, brief warm spells (almost the opposite of the recent pattern of dominant warmth interrupted by brief cool shots).
    Summer: Seasonable overall with cool shots in June balancing out brief spells of heat late June/July, drought building through July, breaking in stages during August when seasonable heat and tropical humidity starts to increase rainfall.
    Tropical Systems: No hurricane landfalls. Early-season tropical storm threatens Cape Cod in June, then a couple former hurricanes or tropical storms threaten from the south August and/or September.
    September: Heatwave early month, then a major turn-around to a chilly/dry pattern.
    October-December: One of the coldest 3-month periods, relative to average, on record. Big rains in October, below normal precipitation but early flakes on a frequent basis November/December.

  12. Happy New Year to everybody. Lets see 2012. Snow starts to come mid Jan and Feb,
    two or three big snow storms, maybe some small clippers. After a slow start we finish the winter with just above for snowfall. March will be rainy with less than 3 inches of snow. Cool and rainy April with heat coming around memorial day weekend and lasting to give us a hot and dry June, July and august. For the third year in a row there will be a hurricane lurking around Labor day weekend with a possible storm to remember as I think we get hit with something stronger than Gloria. September very nice and warm. October cooler than this year and early killing frost with the first snowstorm coming around thank’sgiving. December very cold and snowy.As I predict a dry and hot summer, any rain would come with some severe thunderstorms.

  13. Happy New Year to all !! TK…thanks for this awesome blog, looking forward to participating in 2012.

    Predictions…..

    One of the 4 Boston Pro Sports Teams will win the Title this year. I’d say the most likely to do so would be the Bruins……then Patriots……then Red Sox……then Celtics.

    Weather……Its been +NAO for 4 months now, so I figure when spring should be arriving, we’ll see some stretches of -NAO and thus from mid to late February onward, its going to be cooler than normal. Best snow chances from Feb. 18th thru March 29th……….

    Texas is still in drought, so, I think another summer next summer similar to this past one. Big ridge in the central US occasionally sliding eastward a bit to give the east coast spells of heat. Somewhere btwn 10 to 14 days of 90+ at Logan with again 1 or 2 days near the 100F mark….If La Nina is transitioning to El Nino, then a bit more shear in the tropics and a less active season.

    Next Autumn and Early winter……..more zonal flow….so, no arctic intrusions but no big warmups like what we’ve just gone through…………(Alright, so just go with the opposite of all this and thats what probably happens. 🙂 )

    1. Thank’s Tom- You may be right with your sports call. I would say pats or bruins. Could the pats shock everybody and win it all with no defense.

      1. Hi John.

        Given that defense, I would appreciate this championship a lot more than any of the 3 earlier in the decade, especially the last 2 in 2003 and 2004.

  14. I’ve already wished everybody a happy new year so I’ll just get into what I think happens, and I agree with tk that this month us drier than normal with below normal snowfall but I do believe that feb comes in slightly above the normal of around 10 inches, I’m going out on a limb and saying that I believe when winter is all said and done that most of us from Boston to Providence receive between 15-25 inches for the year. I’m not sure it will snow again until mid Jan, remember for some they didn’t get any snow in oct so for some this will be there 1st snow event for the year, ohh I guess I’ll say it again happy new year and go ahead and have a glass of wine or 2 but don’t drive 🙂

  15. Kind of neat…..Bar Harbor, ME has jumped to 46F with a SE wind. Meanwhile, in interior southeast New England, its in the low-mid 30s. Summit of Mt. Washington is up to 27F.

  16. Happy New Year to all!

    I was dismayed last night to see Matt Noyes (who I respect as a forecaster) tell the viewing audience that they would have “great weather for first night … 46 on the Boston Common at 6pm.” This tells me that most of the viewing audience likes mild temperatures. This represents an enormous shift in preference from, say, three decades ago. I know, I used to go to first night activities at that time. The colder it was, or at least seasonable, the better. Better for the ice sculptures first of all. But, also better for the spirit of a mid-winter holiday! Do people really like New Year’s festivities on a damp, 46 degree day and evening? I know that I would much prefer a real winter’s day (sunny and low 30s) followed by temperatures dropping into the lower 20s. Similarly, celebrating July 4th on a 65-70 degree day would not be as fun as an 85 degree day. A key ingredient for all such celebrations is seasonality (is that a word?). In part, we observe events like Christmas, Hanukkah, New Year’s, July 4th, Thanksgiving, Labor Memorial Day weekends, to celebrate the seasons they represent.

    TK and others (JJ) were right yesterday in telling me (and others) not to throw in the towel on winter. I should just stick to my guns and say this winter will go out with several bangs. But, I must say I’m a skeptic on this winter ever turning it around. In other words, I doubt my own predictions. It has not only been mild in December, November was exceptionally mild as well. And there really does not appear to be any real shift in this pattern. We occasionally get very short-lived doses (I will not call them blasts, as they’re really not that cold or arctic) of cold air, followed by showers and 40s (and sometimes 50s) that last much longer than winter’s cameo appearances.

    1. Hi Joshua…First Night activities these days are very much focused towards younger children and when parents bring them, they probably don’t want to have to deal with bundling them up so much, not to mention missing gloves, hats, etc.
      Also younger kids tend to get very uncomfortable in extreme cold temps, start crying wanting to go home early, etc. As for the ice sculptures, it’s too bad there is no chemical to keep them nice and frozen in 50+ degree temps so they can be enjoyed with no dripping.

      I do see your point though…First Night is a bit more fun when it’s cold. 🙂

    2. It’s very obvious that most would rather have milder than colder and drier than wetter, it’s just human, myself I like the 4 seasons but it’s just a fact that people want it Warner and sunnier than colder and snowier, it wont ever change.

  17. Since we are doing predictions for 2012, I would say regarding snowfall, any above normal amounts are probably now “off the table” until the new 2012-13 winter season.

    The best we can shoot for will be near normal (42″) snowfall. It would actually be a great achievement considering the extremely late start to real winter conditions. We should get going mid-January but overall opportunities will be few. I am keeping my fingers crossed that March will bring significant snow for a change…it has been a few years since March brought “any” snow for that matter.

    Today’s NAO trending negative towards mid-January, but then trends back up if I am looking at it correctly? I have a feeling NAO will never stay negative for any real period of time the rest of the winter.

  18. I am enjoying reading your posts for weather prediction for 2012. Anyone else please feel free to chime in your weather predictions for 2012. I think 2012 will be less extreme than this past year.

    1. I already have more optimism for snow in 2012-13 winter…can’t get any worse than this one so far, right? 😉

  19. Reading Brett Anderson’s blog was not what I wanted to see. It looks like once this cold spell hits temps above normal the rest of the month.
    As I said yesterday I think there will be measurable snow for January at some point but it will snowfall will be below average and temps will be above normal. Now if for some miracle the Old Farmers’ Almanac is right with their blizzard prediction at the end of the month snowfall will be much greater than what I am thinking.
    NAO not that great as it looks like is getting closer to neutral.

  20. I’m going to predict 30″ tops for this winter. Unfortunately think we’ll have a cool/wet spring/early summer. I think the weather will be much less severe countrywide as compared to last year. The 2012 winter will start off with a bang and last into 2013.

  24. Cold temps still here in central Maine. Everything is iced over, car, driveway. Very dangerous conditions up here. Saw on the news up here two car accident with fatalities due to the ice. We are indoors for the rest of the day.

  25. Happy New Year’s to all! Thank you TK for this brilliant weather blog! Coastal, for turning me on to it and the rest of you for making this such an exellent blog with your weather expertise, thoughts, and fun and interesting predictions! Everyone have a safe and wonderful New Year’s celebration!

  26. 12z GFS and EURO are against each other for the long range, the GFS wants to keep it seasonably cool with a few clippers while the EURO wants to send a storm through the lakes region, which allows us to bake for a time.
    Aside from the long range, today’s high temps never made it out of the 30’s even in Boston.

  27. Happy new year I’ve enjoyed getting to know everyone very much. TK thank you for all of the work you put into making this blog happen

    Not a bad day. I’ve been on and off the deck and only just needed to add a jacket.

      1. John we have been here since 10:00 and I love your corner of the world. Thank you for your offer of help. Happy new year

  28. I have had it with the wbz posting issue. I just sent weatherwizzard a detailed post. I really am not a computer person. So after typing in length and than not to see my post, It really ticks me off- sorry. I wonder if coastal has been contacted. He has not posted here to my knowledge.

  29. Happy New Years everyone!

    Just an early teaser, the GFS has something cooking around the 8th..this is the 18z run.
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20111231%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_186_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=186&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12%2F31%2F2011+18UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes

        1. I see you have big plans too LOL. My son is having two pals stay over, both brothers. The oldest who is the one my son hangs out with is on his way out. As I type he is upstairs getting sick, YIKES. His younger brother want’s to stay. That may be a double YIKES. I think 50s
          with no rain vicki. I guess It starts warming up again on Thursday. Next weekend is the grand opening of the skating surface that they put in here in Pembroke. I have a feeling It will be a pool instead of ice. Hey Vicki are you watching the three stooges tonight LOL.

          1. Ok- one kid gone. We will see how the other one does, I believe first sleepover. Did I already say YIKES. Thank god for the stooges.

          2. Not a stooges fan but friends watched them all day yesterday!! Ugh always fun when a kid staying over gets sick. N

            1. Vicki I just love them. They will be coming out with a movie this year. Curly is the one I like the most. My son just asked if Moe was the boss LOL.

            2. One night when you and your husband head out, you should try the Fairview in Marshfield I think you would like it. And I have not been but I heard the Brimstone in Pembroke is good. As Tom said you have the Barker Tavern in Scituate but It is expensive. The Satuit tavern in Scituate is good. For Chinnese Tsangs in Hanover is outstanding.

  30. nothing looks interesting really and nothing really convincing.
    Its going to get cold for the week ahead with highs in the 20s and 30s with some of the lows in the lingle digits but temps will be right back up next weekend ahead of our next weather system

    1. Yea-I believe It is just Tuesday and Wednesday than right back into the high 40s low 50s. Everthing will come togeather for the snowstorm MLK weekend.
      Well that’s my call anyways. Happy New Year Matt.

  31. B’s not looking good tonight. Losing 3-1. They’re going to have to calm down and get control of themselves if they want to pull this one out.

  34. We will be starting a tradition at my home tonight at midnight and hope to continue it for years to come. At midnight we will let the old air out and the new air in while we are banging pots. Neighbors will love us for sure.

    1. Hi John where is best hospital for pediatrics in this area? Grandson was at dr this morning and they said he is fine. Can’t go into how upset my daughter is. Now they say he should go to ER for nebulizer and antibiotics. They don’t want to go out since so many are drinking but if they have to would be great to know best ER to go to. Thank you

      1. Vicki- I work at Children’s Hospital. If It were my son that is where I would go. They could be there in 45minutes. Your other option would be Jordan Hospital exit 5 I believe ,in plymouth or South Shore Hospital in Weymouth. But if they were going to even head towards Weymouth I would go the extra 15minutes to Children’s. Hope this helps. Vicki I know its NewYears Eve but would do Children’s.

  36. Vicki I hope that information helped. I was hoping to hear back from you, If I can be of any help to you and your family please don’t hesitate. I hope everything works out for your grandson.

    1. Sorry John. Things got nuts. They talked to dr again who said wait. The concern was drivers who’d been drinking. They r on way to hosp now. Thank you very much.

      2. Vicki – Hope everything is ok. Please let us know how your grandson is whenever you get the chance.

    2. Thank you all. John they ended up going to newton wellesley. It’s where Tristan was born. He actually just had minor surgery at children’s but it was slippery and they were afraid of drunk drivers too so went to area they knew best. Tristan has pneumonia. My daughter took him to his pediatric practice yesterday morning because she thought he might. The dr who shed never seen before said Tristan was fine and was very critical of my daughter when she said she knew something was wrong. I’d hate to be that dr when my daughter calls her. It was an interesting new years since my other daughters jack Russell ate a whole balloon string and ended up at tufts vet at midnight.

      1. Glad to hear you grandchild got the medical care he needed! Newton-Wellesley is a really good hospital.

      2. Thought and Prayers are will you and your family. I agree, Newton Wellesley is one of the best around. Both of my little guys were born there.

  37. From Taunton NWS climate data…for the last 3 months, the Logan temp departures were….

    October +3.5F
    November +5.7F
    December +5.3F

  38. Early parts of January….

    Its 30F this morning on the summit of Mt Washington (yes, 30F !!!). There seems to be opportunity for sunshine today, so much milder highs along with very mild overnight lows could give today a +15F anomoly. As has been trending, tomorrow sneaks in 1 more above normal day, as the very cold air really doesnt get in until overnight Monday night. Average wise, those 2 days are likely to offset the well below highs of Tuesday and Wednesday, before a bit milder air returns late week. Though it is interesting to see a bit of a sneaky shot of cold air brushing New England on Friday.

    In summary, I think by about January 7th or 8th, most New England climate reporting stations will be running about normal tempwise then.

  39. Love the 984mb low the 0z GFS has over southern New England on/about Jan. 10th….Well, that would be a nice snowstorm for ……………central NY State. 🙂

      1. My daughter said roads were icy Here last nite too. I hope this morning in Maine is as glorious as the morning here

  41. Vicki – I am glad your grandson is being taken care of and I pray for a speedy recovery. He will be fine.

    It sounds like you haven’t had a great start to the New Year – but things can only get better! Take care!

  42. A little icy this morning but temps will warm up. Heading back home today. Better day for driving for sure.

    Vicki sorry about the late night ER visit. I know the feeling.

  45. Yesterday’s 12z EURO’s torch at the end of the run is non existent this morning on the 00z run. I am monitoring that storm it has advertised to cross the country, lots of cold air will be available.

  47. Vicki I hope all is well and thoughts and prayers are with you and your family.
    Happy New Year everyone!!! I can’t wait to see what mother nature has in store for us. I know a few responded with some bold predictions for 2012. If anyone has not I’d love to hear what your predictions are for the upcoming year. Mine were a Major Noreaster 2-3 big thunderstorm days and no hurricanes and tropical storms for New England although we could get remenants up here.

  48. According to the WeatherWizard on the BZ blog if were going to see snow it will be the first half. February looks better. I did not like looking at the EURO weeklies.
    A big UGH!

  49. 48F at Logan at 11am……Very important question…..if it hits 90F at Logan later today, does that count towards last summer’s total ? I know its 2012, but technically were still closer to this past warm season than we are to the next warm season. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 oh and my prediction fell 1 day short.

  50. i think since we are in this pattern now we will have a wet and cool spring. with a cooler to normal summer temperature with above normal rain fall .

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