Tuesday June 22 2021 Forecast (7:42AM)

65 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 22-26)

A cold front will move across the region from northwest to southeast today. The extensive cloud cover ahead of the front and the early timing of the frontal boundary will work to prevent a significant thunderstorm flare up. A few clusters of heavier showers and possible thunderstorms are most likely from a Boston-Hartford line southeastward during this afternoon. However I’m not expecting any of these to become severe, though some may produce heavy downpours that make travel temporarily difficult. Otherwise, it just looks like a general area of showers will move up across the WHW forecast area from southwest to northeast this afternoon into this evening before moving away, at which time a dry, cooler air mass arrives. This sets up great early summer weather for midweek with a northwest breeze, sun & passing clouds Wednesday, and a sunny Thursday with light winds and a developing sea breeze, both days having very low humidity. High pressure which moves in from the Great Lakes Wednesday and right across the region Thursday will shift offshore by Friday and a warm front will approach the region with more cloudiness moving in during that day. There will be a shower threat Friday night or first thing Saturday as the front goes by and then we’ll find ourselves in a warm, more humid air mass for the start of the weekend. But any shower and thunderstorm threat with the next cold front should remain well west of the WHW forecast area Saturday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to general showers and thunderstorms midday and afternoon, with thunderstorms / downpours most likely in eastern CT, RI, and southeastern MA. Highs 78-85. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH, shifting to NW from west to east.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers during the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 53-60. Dew point falling significantly to the 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82. Dew point in the 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 51-58. Dew point in the 40s. Wind NW under 10 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point rising slightly to lower 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Dew point holding in lower 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming SE.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 75-82, cooler in some coastal locations. Dew point rising toward 60. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Fog patches forming. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 83-90, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

Cold front moves into the region from west to east with warm/humid weather June 27 and an increasing chance of showers/thunderstorms, especially west and north of Boston, depending on expected timing. Frontal boundary may stay nearby June 28-29 with additional opportunities for showers/thunderstorms and warm/humid conditions. Front should push offshore by June 30 but upper low may produce a few additional showers or thunderstorms before drier weather arrives from the west end of period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 2-6)

A weak frontal boundary may cross the region somewhere in the first couple days of this period with a risk of a few showers and thunderstorms, but the overall trend is for a westerly air flow and typical summertime warmth with mostly rain-free weather and moderate levels of humidity overall.

65 thoughts on “Tuesday June 22 2021 Forecast (7:42AM)”

  1. Thank you, TK. Hoping for a good soaking from these rains. And then more low humidity? Nice!

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Wonder how Tom fared in Southern VT last evening.
    He certainly got hit with something. Just hope it wasn’t bad.

  6. Thought I heard on the news last night that we are in the running for the hottest June on record. Is this true and what is your outlook for the summer months? Thanks.

    1. Interesting.

      While it’s been above normal, I don’t think of this month as having been record level hot. I’m also doubtful it will be one of the hottest on record given that we’ve had several periods of `cooler’ weather (with some upper 40s at night) and we’re about to get another one of these periods (50s at night). I can remember Junes with an even more consistent pattern of heat.

  9. Thanks TK !

    We had thunderstorms late, late evening (11-1am)?. Nothing directly overhead as far as thunder/lightning, I think cells went north and south of our area. 20-30 minutes of heavy rain.

    Now, a gentle light-moderate rain and much cooler.

    All the info from the blog is extra helpful for us when we are on the road camping.

    Have a good day everyone !

  10. Two things:

    1. I sent this to my boss early this AM in my nightly briefing at the end of my shift:

    It’s going to get really hot in the Northwest and interior West this weekend. If you believe the GFS, we’re going to smash some all-time records.

    Portland, Oregon – All-time record high is 107, set on 7/30/1965, 8/8/1981, and 8/10/1981

    GFS forecast is 110 on Saturday, 117 on Sunday, and 118 on Monday.

    Seattle, Washington – All-time Record high is 103, set on 7/29/2009

    GFS forecast is 105 on Sunday, 102 on Monday, 104 on Tuesday, and 105 the following Saturday

    Spokane, Washington – All-time Record high is 108, set on 7/26/1928 and 8/4/1961

    GFS forecast is 109 on Monday, 113 on Tuesday, and 108 on Wednesday

    Sacramento, California – All-time Record high is 115, set on 6/15/1961

    GFS forecast is 115 on Saturday, 119 on Sunday

    The other models aren’t quite as hot, but still near or above the all-time records.

    2. In regards to Boston setting it’s all-time warmest June, a co-worker who pays close attention to local climate data sent this to me and my boss this morning: “Boston’s June is currently 73.2°, the record is 73.4° from 1976. Based on the forecast Boston will probably have the warmest June on record. I still wonder if the thermometer is a degree or so too high, but it looked fine yesterday. Even so, other stations in New England are getting into top 10 warmest Junes territory. Concord is at 68.3°, number 11 on the list, should move up several slots over the next week.”

    1. Thank you SAK.

      Do you still believe that the GFS is BLUTARSKY regarding the NW high temps over the weekend?

      Or have you changed your mind? Curious and thanks

      1. The 120 at PDX and 111 in SEA it had yesterday? Yup, absolutely Blutarsky.

        Current model forecasts for highest temp at PDX and SEA:

        PDX
        ECMWF – 117 on Monday
        ECMWF Ensemble – 107 on Sunday
        GFS – 115 on Monday
        GFS Ensemble – 106 on Sunday
        GEM – 102 on Saturday
        GEM Ensemble – 111 on Sunday
        NBM – 107 on Saturday and Sunday

        SEA
        ECMWF – 98 on Monday
        ECMWF Ensemble – 100 on Sunday
        GFS – 103 on Sunday
        GFS Ensemble – 101 on Sunday
        GEM – 97 on Saturday
        GEM Ensemble – 102 on Sunday
        NBM – 97 on Sunday

  11. BTW, one reason I notice these things, is that I forecast for a radio station that covers Spokane, WA and Couer d’Alene, ID, so I am looking at the Inland Northwest every day.

    I also forecast for a radio station in the Bay Area, so central California always has my attention.

    TK – we have former co-workers out there. One is the Meteorologist-in-Charge of the Seattle office, and another works in the San Francisco office.

    1. Having close family in Bay Area and on Puget sound, I follow also. It is cousin on Puget sound who introduced me to Cliff Mass years ago. I am following the discussion from him and several in the area which is not unusual.

      I learned a good reason to pay attention to data you know is not accurate but can give you an idea of what May develop. Understanding the models are past accurate, they have used the information positively. It is impressive.

      The explanation by Mass above is an example.

      I also enjoy Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnick. When I was first introduced to his in depth theory on the Sea-Tac sensors, I didn’t use Twitter. Thanks to Marks comments last night, it occurred to me to follow him.

    2. We’ve invaded the West Coast! Haha!!

      Thanks for the plethora of info and thoughts on it!

      1. It is fascinating to me. Although the drought and extreme temps are very sad. I suspect that is what captured the attention.

  13. WPC Surface

    https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

    NOAA radar

    https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_eyJhZ2VuZGEiOnsiaWQiOm51bGwsImNlbnRlciI6Wy05NSwzN10sInpvb20iOjV9LCJhbmltYXRpbmciOmZhbHNlLCJiYXNlIjoic3RhbmRhcmQiLCJjb3VudHkiOmZhbHNlLCJjd2EiOmZhbHNlLCJzdGF0ZSI6ZmFsc2UsIm1lbnUiOnRydWUsInNob3J0RnVzZWRPbmx5IjpmYWxzZSwib3BhY2l0eSI6eyJhbGVydHMiOjAuOCwibG9jYWwiOjAuNiwibG9jYWxTdGF0aW9ucyI6MC44LCJuYXRpb25hbCI6MC42fX0%3D#/

    It appears that today’s precip will be from Anafront???

    2. Most of the rainfall for Boston will be behind the cold front. There may be just enough time for a heavier shower or a thunderstorm ahead of it or right on it as we are starting to see north of the city right now.

      The front has already gone by Fitchburg.

      1. I bet it starts at 3:23 this afternoon right . I have an estimate this afternoon & seems when I do something always screws the commute up lol

          1. I was referring to leaving the city where I work & it was indeed a horrible ride . I live in pembroke Jean but I grew up in Marshfield.

  17. a few really juicy cells to the South of Boston.
    Looks like a big hail signature as well on one of them.

  20. Looking at WCVB’s 10 day extended forecast with 5 days hitting 90 or a bit higher. Is this realistic or just an oddity in projecting the models out farther?

  21. We have some thunder here. Raining pretty good now, but nothing like what SAK was reporting. 🙂

    1. Some nearby lightening strikes. On right into Jamaica Pond, perhaps 1,000 to 1,500 feet from the house.

  23. 0.94″ in torrential downpours in the last 90 minutes.

    Lots of lightning strikes in Taunton.

  24. 1.12 inch and it is still pouring. Cells appear to be training over
    my area. Where was this last Saturday? I may have gotten some
    night crawlers. 🙂

  25. Wow you all have some very impressive rain totals

    A few loud rumbles of thunder and bright flashes here but nothing that compares. 0.38 rain and still a steady rain. 64 with 61 DP.

  27. Looks like another round heading northeast from Rhode Island.
    Just had another lightning/boomer. 0.95″

  29. 1.72, according to the rain gauge. That’s a good soaking for a fairly brief period of downpours. Still raining as I write this. It’s `cooled’ down a little and will continue to do so as the dew point drops to the 40s, but heck it’s June 22nd so a real cool-down will not be in play. I think we have to wait about 7 weeks until Boston has evening/overnight temps in the 40s.

  30. I am going to Bodega Bay California July 8th to do some herbivory and seagrass work over there. First time doing work in the Pacific Ocean and the temperatures there are in the 50s/low 60s for highs even with that record heat in the Pacific west.

  31. Fascinating story about elephants trekking across China. See link below. Why they’re doing this is a mystery to scientists. It’s likely related to the need for resources, such as food, water, and shelter. In most locations where Asian elephants live in the wild, there is an increase in human disturbances leading to habitat fragmentation, loss and resource reduction. Interesting to note is that one of the scientists interviewed for this story is Joshua Plotnik, assistant professor of elephant psychology at Hunter College, City University of New York. I never knew there was an actual field called “elephant psychology.” https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-57565514?

    1. Thank you. I know I will enjoy. I’ll send to my oldest granddaughter also. Elephants are incredible creatures

      1. Vicki my apologies I have not been on here much as I’ve been straight out . I hope you had a wonderful birthday last Friday

        1. Oh my. Please don’t apologize. I know you have been busy. Thank you. I hope Mrs SSK had a wonderful birthday also

    2. So intelligent, so curious. Amazing animals. Its unfortunate that China is a major reason for the three species declines. Increase human disturbance, habitat destruction, and changing climate are possibly major reasons. Rising temperatures could increase or shift the Asian elephants range as well.

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