Indeed, the Delta variant is impacting a much younger set of patient groups. It’s not just that these patient groups are contracting the virus, a much larger percentage is getting sick than with previous variants, with some being hospitalized (and in ICU) and dying.
Schools in Britain have very clear and strict NPI protocols in place, buildings are generally well ventilated and have almost all been modernized (MUCH more money is spent throughout Europe on public infrastructure). So my concerns are that the Delta variant becomes an even greater problem here (in certain regions) for school-age children once schools reopen in the fall.
It is a really good article, Amy.
What strikes me is that, as is the case in the US, in England the priority is rushing testing to get kids back in school. I just don’t understand that. To me the priority should be taking whatever time is needed to ensure the safety of our kids.
To ensure the safety of our kids is to get them vaccinated over the summer!
Better yet, EVERY school district in the nation should mandate it imho. I believe BPS is considering it, but no final decision as of yet.
Another 16,750 cases today in Britain. So yesterday’s 40% increase wasn’t a fluke (yesterday the UK recorded 16,100 cases; the day before ~11,000). This is a sustained wave.
Vaccines work very well to prevent deaths. Not a panacea, but the next best thing: In the U.S. in May, of the 18,000 Covid-19 reported deaths, only 150 (0.8%) were fully vaccinated.
But maybe not as well in the UK. Of the 29/46% (or numbers close to those) you mentioned, I wonder how many were pfeizer vs AZ.
Good point, Vicki, and I believe there are two factors:
1. You already mentioned that AZ is used more than Pfizer in the UK. This is correct. A fully vaccinated person with AZ is a bit less protected than a person who has had 2 doses of Pfizer. I have not seen a report that gives a breakdown of the numbers of deaths of full vaccinated people with AZ v. Pfizer.
2. The Delta variant. It’s more transmissible, AND it’s more virulent. Evidence is mounting for both. The vast majority of deaths in the U.S. in May were not caused by the Delta variant. But the vast majority of recent deaths in the UK have been caused by the Delta variant.
I suspect that when new data on Covid deaths are revealed in the US for June and July we’ll see that a higher percentage of fully vaccinated folks among the deaths (due to more Delta variant presence). To be sure it won’t be a high percentage, but it will be higher than 0.8%.
Thank you, Joshua. I truly appreciate your input.
In Britain, in the coastal town of Weymouth (what a surprise, we have a coastal town named Weymouth, too! – wonder where the name of our Weymouth comes from …), the town council is holding its meetings on the beach as this is the only safe environment for these kinds of in-person events. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-dorset-57598926?
Spotting trends in this pandemic is not easy. One can be fooled by anomalous data, outliers, gaps in data, etc … My `job’ has been to try and sort out the real trends from the data hiccups or outliers. Right now, I’m spotting a sustained trend of case increases in Missouri, several counties in Florida, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Mississippi, several counties in Texas, and Arizona. It was something I was concerned about several weeks ago, as you may recall. The good thing is that the trend this year in those states is NOT the same as last year’s sunbelt wave. It’s less pronounced, and not a massive spike. Yet, it’s concerning because it shows a determined virus, if you will, that is not going away quietly. In fact, because of the virus’ ability to simmer in those states and not cool down or disappear it will gradually spread to other states as fall approaches. I believe New England is well protected for the most part, but we have to remain vigilant and analyze the data as they come in over the summer months.
All Mass. General Brigham employees will be required to get vaccinated as soon as FDA gives full approval.
Joshua, what’s taking the FDA so long? What more do they need?
Philip, your question “what’s taking the FDA so long?” is precisely the right one. There’s no valid reason for the FDA to be sitting on this for as long as it has. It can and should make a decision. Gosh, it made a very controversial decision – without evidence of clinical benefit – on an Alzheimer’s drug two weeks ago. You would think it could get its act together on a vaccine that clearly has benefit and a very good risk profile. Not perfect, but no treatment or vaccine is.
Is it because they see something we do not? I’m assuming you both mean for adults. Surely, a decision can’t be made for 12-18 until they work out a way to mitigate the heart issue. Testing for under 12 is maybe only six weeks old.
The Alzheimer’s drug is interesting. There reportedly was intense disagreement within the agency. One of the two larger studies for the drug failed to show any benefit. And yet they approved it. I sure hope they show much more caution than they did with that.
Israel is reinstituting indoor mask mandates as it is seeing jumps in cases. The good news is that the vast majority of fully vaccinated (all Pfizer) people who’ve contracted the coronavirus have mild or no symptoms. Still, a few are quite sick and hospitalized.
Nation’s positivity rate has increased from 1.9 to 2.3% in the last 10 days. Doesn’t sound like much but it’s not a good trend. The well vaccinated states are NOT contributing to that trend, but the lesser vaccinated ones are. With positivity numbers now approaching 10% in quite a number of counties in Missouri, Arkansas, Utah, Arizona, Oklahoma, etc … that’s just not a good sign. For the life of me in these lesser vaccinated states I don’t understand why simple measures like some crowd limits indoors, masks indoors in unventilated spaces, and some distancing indoors are not maintained.
Just unbelievable
Just spoke to an epidemiologist who said that the Delta variant is now dominant (>50%) in Missouri. Also, he said that in NYC Delta accounts for at least 23% of cases – as of June 12th. He thinks the number now is >30%. Massachusetts and NY/NYC are similar in terms of timing and trends. I think the vaccines will do an excellent job in repelling the Delta advance. But there’s still a vulnerable population that’s not vaccinated, and a small fraction among the vaccinated will get very sick and die (150 did, nationwide last month, and that number will grow with Delta’s advance). This is why I would emphasize restraint and keep some Covid restrictions/mitigation in indoor spaces. But, my words have fallen on deaf ears.
Those deaf ears play to a different drummer …..one that defies logic
We haven’t changed anything at my work yet. All the indoor restrictions that were in place at the start of vaccinations remain in place for now…
C-19 for 6-25 is ready.
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Your no-hype southeastern New England weather blog!
Thanks for sharing the Guardian article, Amy.
Indeed, the Delta variant is impacting a much younger set of patient groups. It’s not just that these patient groups are contracting the virus, a much larger percentage is getting sick than with previous variants, with some being hospitalized (and in ICU) and dying.
Schools in Britain have very clear and strict NPI protocols in place, buildings are generally well ventilated and have almost all been modernized (MUCH more money is spent throughout Europe on public infrastructure). So my concerns are that the Delta variant becomes an even greater problem here (in certain regions) for school-age children once schools reopen in the fall.
It is a really good article, Amy.
What strikes me is that, as is the case in the US, in England the priority is rushing testing to get kids back in school. I just don’t understand that. To me the priority should be taking whatever time is needed to ensure the safety of our kids.
To ensure the safety of our kids is to get them vaccinated over the summer!
Better yet, EVERY school district in the nation should mandate it imho. I believe BPS is considering it, but no final decision as of yet.
Another 16,750 cases today in Britain. So yesterday’s 40% increase wasn’t a fluke (yesterday the UK recorded 16,100 cases; the day before ~11,000). This is a sustained wave.
Vaccines work very well to prevent deaths. Not a panacea, but the next best thing: In the U.S. in May, of the 18,000 Covid-19 reported deaths, only 150 (0.8%) were fully vaccinated.
But maybe not as well in the UK. Of the 29/46% (or numbers close to those) you mentioned, I wonder how many were pfeizer vs AZ.
Good point, Vicki, and I believe there are two factors:
1. You already mentioned that AZ is used more than Pfizer in the UK. This is correct. A fully vaccinated person with AZ is a bit less protected than a person who has had 2 doses of Pfizer. I have not seen a report that gives a breakdown of the numbers of deaths of full vaccinated people with AZ v. Pfizer.
2. The Delta variant. It’s more transmissible, AND it’s more virulent. Evidence is mounting for both. The vast majority of deaths in the U.S. in May were not caused by the Delta variant. But the vast majority of recent deaths in the UK have been caused by the Delta variant.
I suspect that when new data on Covid deaths are revealed in the US for June and July we’ll see that a higher percentage of fully vaccinated folks among the deaths (due to more Delta variant presence). To be sure it won’t be a high percentage, but it will be higher than 0.8%.
Thank you, Joshua. I truly appreciate your input.
In Britain, in the coastal town of Weymouth (what a surprise, we have a coastal town named Weymouth, too! – wonder where the name of our Weymouth comes from …), the town council is holding its meetings on the beach as this is the only safe environment for these kinds of in-person events. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-dorset-57598926?
Spotting trends in this pandemic is not easy. One can be fooled by anomalous data, outliers, gaps in data, etc … My `job’ has been to try and sort out the real trends from the data hiccups or outliers. Right now, I’m spotting a sustained trend of case increases in Missouri, several counties in Florida, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Mississippi, several counties in Texas, and Arizona. It was something I was concerned about several weeks ago, as you may recall. The good thing is that the trend this year in those states is NOT the same as last year’s sunbelt wave. It’s less pronounced, and not a massive spike. Yet, it’s concerning because it shows a determined virus, if you will, that is not going away quietly. In fact, because of the virus’ ability to simmer in those states and not cool down or disappear it will gradually spread to other states as fall approaches. I believe New England is well protected for the most part, but we have to remain vigilant and analyze the data as they come in over the summer months.
All Mass. General Brigham employees will be required to get vaccinated as soon as FDA gives full approval.
Joshua, what’s taking the FDA so long? What more do they need?
Philip, your question “what’s taking the FDA so long?” is precisely the right one. There’s no valid reason for the FDA to be sitting on this for as long as it has. It can and should make a decision. Gosh, it made a very controversial decision – without evidence of clinical benefit – on an Alzheimer’s drug two weeks ago. You would think it could get its act together on a vaccine that clearly has benefit and a very good risk profile. Not perfect, but no treatment or vaccine is.
Is it because they see something we do not? I’m assuming you both mean for adults. Surely, a decision can’t be made for 12-18 until they work out a way to mitigate the heart issue. Testing for under 12 is maybe only six weeks old.
The Alzheimer’s drug is interesting. There reportedly was intense disagreement within the agency. One of the two larger studies for the drug failed to show any benefit. And yet they approved it. I sure hope they show much more caution than they did with that.
Israel is reinstituting indoor mask mandates as it is seeing jumps in cases. The good news is that the vast majority of fully vaccinated (all Pfizer) people who’ve contracted the coronavirus have mild or no symptoms. Still, a few are quite sick and hospitalized.
Then there’s Missouri, which I mentioned in a previous post. This is not good and getting worse. https://twitter.com/thehowie/status/1408176286250455040
Nation’s positivity rate has increased from 1.9 to 2.3% in the last 10 days. Doesn’t sound like much but it’s not a good trend. The well vaccinated states are NOT contributing to that trend, but the lesser vaccinated ones are. With positivity numbers now approaching 10% in quite a number of counties in Missouri, Arkansas, Utah, Arizona, Oklahoma, etc … that’s just not a good sign. For the life of me in these lesser vaccinated states I don’t understand why simple measures like some crowd limits indoors, masks indoors in unventilated spaces, and some distancing indoors are not maintained.
Just unbelievable
Just spoke to an epidemiologist who said that the Delta variant is now dominant (>50%) in Missouri. Also, he said that in NYC Delta accounts for at least 23% of cases – as of June 12th. He thinks the number now is >30%. Massachusetts and NY/NYC are similar in terms of timing and trends. I think the vaccines will do an excellent job in repelling the Delta advance. But there’s still a vulnerable population that’s not vaccinated, and a small fraction among the vaccinated will get very sick and die (150 did, nationwide last month, and that number will grow with Delta’s advance). This is why I would emphasize restraint and keep some Covid restrictions/mitigation in indoor spaces. But, my words have fallen on deaf ears.
Those deaf ears play to a different drummer …..one that defies logic
We haven’t changed anything at my work yet. All the indoor restrictions that were in place at the start of vaccinations remain in place for now…
C-19 for 6-25 is ready.