The Week Ahead

158 Comments

1:10AM

Though some midwinter cold is on the way, there are still no signs of significant snow.  This week will start out with a windy weather change, a plunge in temperature from the mild weekend readings to midwinter cold by Monday night through Wednesday night, followed by a moderating trend later in the week. Some moderate to locally heavy rain showers have been moving through the Boston area with the initial cold front during Sunday night, but all of this activity will be offshore to the east by morning. A couple more trough lines and a secondary cold front will come by during the day Monday and into the evening, bringing a slight chance of snow showers as the cold air comes in. After a cold snap Tuesday & Wednesday, expect a moderating trend for later in the week. It may turn a little unsettled at some point toward the weekend, but indications are that no major storminess will occur.

Detailed Forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Rain showers ending from west to east. Low 35-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunshine and passing clouds. Slight chance of snow showers, especially over the hills north and west of Boston. High 40-45 in the morning then cooling to the 30s. Wind SW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Low 15-20. Wind W 15-25 MPH shifting to NW. Wind chill below 10 at times.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 22-27. Wind NW 15-25 MPH gusting around 30 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 5-10. Wind NW 10-15 MPH gusting 20-25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 21-26. Wind NW 10-15 MPH gusting around 20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of light snow showers early, then partly sunny. Low 16. High 35.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny then mostly cloudy with a chance of light mix to rain showers late. Low 24. High 42.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 46.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 44.

158 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  2. Thanks TK !!

    I think I am in Charlie’s camp regarding little or snow snow at Logan and a vast majority of the local area for January 2012 and here’s why…..

    With the combination of a weak La Nina and little if any blocking at high latitudes….

    a) It causes the trofs in the east to be set up in such a way that when cold air is provided, storm development takes place well out into the ocean and thus cold and precip dont meet up.

    b) it allows clippers to pass to our north, as there is little resistance to that path. So, not much of a chance of one passing to our south and providing a snow event.

    c) when the southern stream gets involved, because of La Nina and little blocking, the cold air is in retreat and the storm path is directly at us or to our west.

    Unless some big change occurs in the atmosphere, I really can see it not snowing this month too.

  5. Good lord, I look at models everyday like we all do and I’m just hoping to be able to say I see our 1st snow event of the season and I think it will happen,,,, BUT I don’t:( I don’t see anything concrete at all, as I’ve been saying there is no sustainable cold air, so I see alot of ups and downs with no prolonged cold air, I’m not officially going with a snowless jan as there something I am continuing to watch after mid month, the 8th storm seems not to be a significant at all even if it does snow, I give it 2 more weeks and then I will be officially rooting for a snowless winter or at least under 8 inches like 1936-37. Have a good day everyone and think spring, it’s really not that far away

  7. As always, TK, thank you for your forecast. You do a fantastic job.

    I think that this week’s book-ends – Monday and Friday – will be very similar. Only difference is that today will be a prelude to a couple of cold days, while Friday will be a prelude to a couple of mild days (I’m thinking we’ll hit 50 again on Saturday, and that, my friends, is unbelievable given the numbers of days above 50 this late fall and early winter).

    It’s a bizarre winter to say the least. My daughter called me from Bretton Woods (she’s working at the Appalachian Mountain Club’s Highland Center) and said that even the stalwart AMC veterans had not seen a winter like this in quite some time (decades, according to the AMC weather person). She was told by that person there that usually the southeast rainstorms that can impact Boston in December and January provide at least some significant snowfall to the mountains. That has not happened this year. In addition, clipper systems have barely had an impact as they’ve tracked too far north. Finally, she was told that >80% of the days since November 1st have been above normal temperature-wise, which is a stunning factoid.

  9. Happy New Year!

    00z ECWMF does take a Tennessee Valley Low and eject it off the coast of NJ just South of Long Island during the daytime hours next Tuesday 1/12. Pretty robust precip ~1.0″ South East Ridge does break down some, decent riding in the west, so there are some players in place. I don’t think the ECWMF makes complete sense with its track because its eastern trough does not go deep enough to spin the low off the coast where it currently depicts it. Based on its trough positioning, allowing for only a partial collapse of the ridge, and it keeping the NAO positive at that time, it seems to me it would send the TV Low up the Hudson Valley or no further east than the CT Rvr Valley. So those are the negating factors to the storm that the ECWMF has. Its Ensembles are warmer, GFS and its ensembles are further east, GGEM and its Ensembles have nothing. So another time period to watch.

    1. Yes the GFS ENS goes neutral to slightly negative. GFS OP stays positive, and the ECWMF and its ENS are strongly positive which is what bugs me about its current OP run solution for 1/12. The GFS ENS more OTS solution at least runs congruent to its NAO forecast. The ECWMF does not which makes me have some hesitation in accepting its current solution as fully plausible.

  12. Yeah if you look at the NAO since the start of September it has been mostly positive. There was just that little dip towards negative around the time the Pre Halloween Noreaster happened.

  16. JMA so based in your above comments you really don’t find the 00z euro to be making sense. Any thoughts of the rest of winter?

  17. 45 and sun between great cloud cover in Scituate. We had some really dark clouds go over that must have been the flurries producers.

    1. Sunny here in Pembroke. Cloudy skys do appear but sun wins for the most, temp wise not bad at all, for now.

  18. Sun is out in Sudbury – lots of clouds around – and it is snowing! Just a light flurry. But, hey, should I change my name to “snowshine”? It is very windy out, ‘though.

    1. Just kidding – I don’t want to change my name. I’ve been rainshine so long – don’t want to change! 🙂 But it really is snowing – just some flakes blowing around.

        1. When you get a thundershower or shower in the summer, sometimes the sun comes out in the middle of the shower. The rain looks so pretty – almost sparkling. So, I call it rainshine! Hope that makes some sense – I could call it sunshower, but I like rainshine better. Hmmm – just thinking about it makes me kind of missing summer – don’t tell anyone that – everyone is missing snow! (me too!) 🙂

          1. Cool. Makes perfect sense. I very much miss summer. Winter is just not for me. I am a shorts and T-shirt kind of guy. I enjoy all my potted plants that I put on my farmers porch, and so much just sitting on it during a thunderstorm. The one thing I do not miss is trying to keep the pool clean, lots of trees around it, and It is a very big and deep pool. I would guess the deep end is 7 feet deep. Soon enough I will be in shorts.

  19. John I thought I posted but don’t see it. Do you know anywhere along 139 area where I can buy binoculars? I forgot mine. We don’t want to drive too far so may wait until someone heads home. We tried radio shack and staples and kohls no luck Thank you

        1. Not sure if you know where it is. Take a left out of Kohls parking lot. Go all the way to the end and take a right at the light onto 53. Follow that road straight for about 10 minutes and you will come to the mall on your right, you can’t miss it. It is right after target.

      2. Thanks John. We will take a ride up there tomorrow. I like the drive up 123. I am sure we could find them at derby st but am not a shopper – esp when I’m in a relaxing frame of mind 🙂

        1. I think you could find them at the mall, I would be shocked if you did not. It is a very nice simple mall.

        2. Vicki I live10 minutes from Kohls. Where I told you to take a right onto 53 at that light, I take the left which leads you to the center.

            1. Sure is. 5minutes from my house. They have a ton of stores and places to eat on that stretch, check it out. Again the mall is right after target.Wallmart is in the mall.

  20. In case nobody heard the pats will be playing on Saturday night 8pm January 14th. I swear everything is coming up for us on that date. Watch we get snow. Whenever I have plans during the winter we either get snow or we are watching a storm for that day. That would also be MLK weekend.

  21. I remember that game in 2002 with the snow against the Raiders the tuck game. That was one of the few times it snowed during the winter of 01-02. The winter of 06-07 stunk and I hope we won’t be adding the winter of 11-12 to that last.

    1. I doubt It. I bet that game is either real cold, or snowy. Right now I say we get that storm that myself and Philip called for Mlk weekend. I’m telling you we have so much to do that Saturday I bet It snows for first time.

  22. According to Cirrus on the BZ blog coastal storm for the early next week not on the models. Don’t know if its a troll talking or someone who has been looking at the models. One thing is certain the coldest air of the winter for tomorrow and Wednesday!

    1. I guess you and I have been reading the same stuff , just saw his post. It was a good read on there homepage 2nd story. It was regarding the weather. Check that out.

  23. I just got done reading Miss Macks forcast for today. She also made mention that the longrange compute models showing a coastal storm for next Tuesday. What do you guys think? This would be in the exact timeframe that BM was talking about. I have seen him nail storms before.

  24. Yeah BaileyMan said between the 7-11th of this month. WeatherWizard said yesterday if snow does not happen during the first half of the month we might have to wait till February.

      1. That’s a good day. Mac is taking off two days each week and they are flexible. John my daughter and SIL just drove by a couple of Pembroke houses. One on Tara rd and can’t remember but in same area. They found ice rink too

        1. Vicki- All I can say about Pembroke is that we love it very much. It is a great family town. I am sure she drove by the center that was just built and opened last spring. They are now finishing it up with another stop and shop, we can’t wait for that to open. You pull out of my neighborhood and the center is right there. The outdoor skating area is new this year. The plan is to see how it goes and may make it bigger. Pembroke turns 300 this year and there is a yrs worth of events starting soon. September is a huge parade, roadrace. Fireworks on 3/17. A car show, plane show, a ball and many more things. Great family town. Where the rink is they have a huge easter egghunt there every year.

          1. Sounds wonderful. Daughter said houses were on Valley and mountain rd. She has no idea where my SIL got Tara

                1. They were, like right there. Would she ever buy here. Great location, great town. Now is the time to buy.

  26. It is not mentioned on my blog post above because it’s beyond the time frame I was covering there, but for a few days I have been watching trends that point to coastal storm development sometime next week. Target dates: January 11-14. I know the 00z Euro had something around the 10th but I think that may be too soon. I just got to my comp for the first time in several hours so I’m going to look things over now. Suspect the Euro will reflect something during that time frame on its 12z run. Let’s go see! I’ll look at GFS runs but frankly I am not trusting that model much again right now.

  27. Kind of neat to look at the Lake Effect snow on radar and the hit and miss coverage of it. I think one band is coming off and making it all the way thru northern VT, northern NH and into western Maine.

    It feels chilly out, but I guess its more of the low dewpoints and wind than it is the temp itself, which is still in the upper 30s to low 40s. It could be that Logan officially has only one day (Wednesday) with a subfreezing high temp as I’m thinking it could be 32F or a little higher at midnight tonight.

    1. Again I don’t agree with that thinking about temps. I know climatology speaking that is the case,but in reality tomorrow is not going to above freezing.

      2. For sure……tomorrow during the day, in the 20s and falling…..But, when we are looking back at the end of the month, Jan. 3rd might well show a misleading high temp that occurred around the midnight hour.

  28. NAO and AO indices are looking to be headed negative, the stratospheric warming is well under way, which will help weaken the PV and allow to move southward.
    The MJO is just about finished with phase 6, only took a few days.
    These are very good signs, but it also tells you that the models are going to have one hell of a time figuring out the next 2 months.

  29. 12z ECWMF loses the 1/10 storm and now has a warm storm on 1/12 with SE Ridge in place and a digging trough from the Mountain states all the way into the eastern portions of the Midwest forcing coastal storm to ride between the two through into Eastern New York State / Western New England and up into Northern New England, much more in line with my thinking of how I thought the 1/10 should look based on the the other climate parameters the ECWMF was portraying.

    One of things I find fascinating is that the 12z GFS produces .15-.19 of QPF over most SNE over the next 16 days. I am not saying that is correct, but it is noteworthy from a modeling standpoint especially based on climatological factors within its forecasting algorithms. That is incredibly dry output for January.

        1. Honest too god Tom- I would love It If we got none, sorry. But there is just no way that will happen.

          1. Thanks John, will do……….thinking ratios, rates and unit rates. Thats what we start back with tomorrow.

  32. As I know we will not have a snowless January or more of importance a snowless winter, has there ever been a snowless winter recorded. I doubt It, but would like to know.

    1. I think the lowest in 1936-37 with 8 inches I think, John I may be off so maybe tk or somebody can help

  34. Tweet from Matt Noyes today

    Looks like next week NewEng is very close to snowier vs. rainier than normal line – but that is encouraging for winter lovers.

  38. Earth is at perihelion later this evening, about 91.5 million miles from the sun. Hope that sun is out today to take some sting out of the cold air. Have a good day all !!

  40. Next weekend we will be back close to 50 Degrees after this short cold snap, this is crazy but very interesting for Jan

  41. the week ahead looks really calm but colder than we have been use to.
    today and tonight clear highs in the mid 20s lows in the single digits
    wednesday partly sunny highs in the mid 20s
    wednesday night cloudy chance of snow showers some minor accumulations lows in the low 20s
    thursday and thursday night partly cloudy highs in the mid 30s lows in the upper teens
    friday mostly sunny highs in the low 30s
    friday night through sunday mostly cloudy highs in the upper 30s lows in the 20s

    1. Does look like the coast even pick up some snow based on the 00z run, but JMA eluded yesterday might not be an accurate read, but several potential storms to track

  53. Nao forecast looks Dreadfull again!!!

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html

    The Euro has something for the 9th, but forecasts mostly rain for Boston area,
    However, 850MB temps could support snow, so that will be close and have to
    be watched. The GEM has this system as well, but as more of an inside runner,
    having it pass directly over the Boston area for RAIN.

    The Euro sure has something juicy for the 13th. The GEM has NOTHING
    for the 13th.

    But both of these are way out there and the GFS has NEITHER of them.
    So who knows what will happen?????

  54. Apologies for lack of update. My Dad is in the hospital. Will catch up later today. Thanks all!!

  57. 12Z GFS now has a minor system for 1/8. Don’t know IF this is the same
    as the Euro was showing for 1/9. If so, it is certainly depicted as Weaker.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F03%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=129&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    1. 12Z Euro Now has a system for 1/12, but has it with MUCH warm air ahead of it and to make matters worse, an INSIDE RUNNER. Again, this is WAY
      out there, so hopefully there is room for change. The only good thing is, that
      now the models are in agreement about a system. Just a question of timing
      and track.

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F03%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=216&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    1. Yes he did! As I recall, he said Hudon River Valley to Ct. River at the most
      Eastward! Let’s see what the 12Z Euro has to say, but at this point,
      Situation normal for this season. That is a tease, only to have it shift westward
      due to that SE Ridge and +NAO. Right now, at least for the time being, January is picking up right where December left off.

      1. Mets are talking about the chance of a coastal storm on Sunday, what do you guys think. Just heard it in the shop.

  61. Ok so the GFS now has a storm, since it’s so far out, the track at the moment isn’t a huge deal. If we can get the NAO to go negative that we may have a shot at some snow soon.

  63. Though the weather may be a little boring around here, except for the brief cold spell and possibilities of snow next week (I am thinking rain in Boston, but some heavy and much-needed snow in the interior and to our north), around the globe there is a lot of interesting weather. In the UK and the Netherlands a major Atlantic storm swept by leaving behind a trail of damage after 65-85mph wind gusts were recorded. And, by the way, places up north in our hemisphere that tend to be fairly dry by now, are getting tons of snow. I may have mentioned the friend I have in Sept-Iles, Quebec. He emailed me to say that they just got over a foot of snow, and it’s been snowing almost on a daily basis since mid December, which, according to him is unusual. Getting light fluffy snow is of course common in January up there, but it’s usually too dry and cold for major storms. This year it’s been a different pattern.

    1. Joshua I was up in Maine for the last 5 days and they are in desperate need of snow so I sure hope they get it even if we miss out!!

      1. Agreed. A colleague of mine was in Jackman, Maine last week where they definitively had snow (a good amount, in fact). But, she mentioned that there was an abrupt cutoff on route 201 right around Solon, Maine, between snow and absolutely no snow. This confirms what I saw last week, too. Franconia Notch had some snow – though not much (5 inches or so as a natural base), but below Lincoln, NH there was none. I have never seen as little snow in New Hampshire as I did last week (in late December), and I drive there a lot at that time of year. Vermont, as I mentioned, did have patches of snow, including places like Norwich and Montpelier, but no real snow depth, or even snow piles. The silver lining, I guess, is that state and local budgets are saving a lot this year with so little to plow and salt.

    1. Euro for the 1/8 event has the immediate Boston area in a Rain to Snow
      event with Boston picking up like 2-3 inches after a changeover. With interior
      sections grabbing something like 6-10 inches or so. Tried to get a link, but
      it didn’t work out so well.

      Not far enough out for the next event.

  66. Hi Hadi…regarding that NWS year end summary, isn’t that 9.0″ as normal December snowfall for Boston a bit high? I always believed that should be more like around 7.0″.

    I am now puzzled as to how NWS came up with that 9.0″ December average. If you think about it, ocean temps are still on the high side during the month of December (40-42 degrees?). During January-February is when we get our coldest ocean temps (34-38 degrees) which is why we get higher snow totals (13″ and 12″ respectively) during those months.

    This is all under “normal” conditions, of course.

    1. I remember that 8 inches was the old December average. We picked up a bunch of snow last December and they are probably using the current 30 year average, so 9 inches is most likely correct.

    1. An extension of it, yes. Pneumonia of some sort resulting from a long-lasting chest cold.

  68. Henry Margusity is calling for a snow event around the 12th. Based on today’s NAO I do agree with his thinking. However, it looks like the NAO shoots right back up for the 2nd half of the month. Maybe NAO goes back down more consistently for February??

  69. So do we have a chance of some snow on the 8th and 12th. On my bb, internet at work is down.

    Tk, sorry about your dad.

  71. I wish on weatherunderground we could post total precip for a storm, but I can’t figure out how to do that

  72. 12Z Euro NG for the 12th event. Still has something, however it appears that
    a Northern stream system take the Souther stream system, that previously
    was a Coastal and SUCKS it into itself, ending up with a BIg storm to the NW
    of the Boston Area. YUCK!

    This is the end result. Because these runs this far out are in 24 hour increments
    hard to know exact course of events, but if it ends up this way, not good, save
    for perhaps a littel back end snow:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&hh=240&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=192&fixhh=1

  73. Coastal based on the latest EURO yes I would say there is chance Sunday night/ Monday, nothing huge unless track changes but our best chance so far.

    1. Looking at the JMA and NOGAPS, they both have the 1/8 system and
      fairly potent AND more to the EAST than the Euro and GFS. SO here’s
      hoping the system is as potent as depicted on the Euro and tracks a bit
      farther East than depicted on the Euro.

  75. My Dad was admitted to the hospital and will at least stay tonight. They’re taking good care of him and he’s doing a little better as of this afternoon. 🙂

    Updating the blog now. Short discussion and forecast through early next week will be in by 3:30PM.

    1. Ecellent News. Hopefully he can come home tomorrow and feeling better
      still. That Pneumonia can be pesky, especially in the elderly.

        1. Sorry, Don’t understand why the whole link won’t show.

          Rest assured it has the system, just a bit South and East of Boston. Just a bit too close.

  78. Hey all! Blog is updated. Vague wording beyond Thursday but early on I am favoring a more easterly track for the Sunday system. If that happens the irony would be that both the GFS and Euro had the system S of us on runs several days ago, on the same date…

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