Sunday June 27 2021 Forecast (7:46AM)

79 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

Heat continues to build in as we close out the weekend and we’ll peak our hot days Monday and Tuesday. As we get to mid week a frontal boundary will get into the region and increase the chance for showers and thunderstorms.

TODAY: Lots of clouds early to mid morning, then partly to mostly sunny. Fog patches South Coast early morning. Highs 85-92, cooler Cape Cod. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH with gusts over 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches in sheltered locations. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Slight chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 88-95, cooler South Coast. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 90-97, cooler Cape Cod. Dew point falling to lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 68-75. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 86-93. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of evening showers. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 84-91. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 2-6)

A frontal boundary should be in the region to start the period with a higher shower and thunderstorm threat and less heat but still somewhat high humidity, and then high pressure from eastern Canada may sneak down and dry the region out but keep it on the warm side for July 3-4, before that high slips to the south, it stays warm but turns more humid later in the period. The confidence on this scenario is not particularly high still.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 7-11)

No significant changes to the medium range outlook of a typical summertime pattern with weak jet stream to the north and a regional pattern of moderate humidity, warm air, and limited shower and thunderstorm opportunities.

79 thoughts on “Sunday June 27 2021 Forecast (7:46AM)”

  2. Thanks TK.

    This morning the tv mets backed off the 5-day heat wave down to a 4-day.

    It’s still going to be very uncomfortable either way.

    Also, Jacob noted that the last time there were 2 heat waves in June was in 1941.

    1. There’s still no lock on even a 4-day at Boston.
      And I’m almost certain no records are even tied.
      As I said several days ago, as far as our hot weather can go, this will be “modest heat”. Yes it will be uncomfortable. But it’s modest compared to our big heat.

      1. Fwiw, WBZ Radio AccuWeather.com is expecting near record temps all this week.

        I will certainly defer to you as always TK! Just being the messenger here.
        🙂

    2. Technically, 1941 is the last time that Boston had 2 heat waves in the month of June. However, in 2017, Boston had one in May and one in June.

        1. I was pointing out that 1941 was not the last time we had 2 heat waves before the end of June, which is more impressive that just having 2 heat waves in June.

  3. Logan dew point is sitting at 70 as we start out this Sunday and temperature is rising pretty quickly as it is up to 81 already.

    1. Well it’s still 81 an hour later. What’s up with that?
      There appears to be enough sun to boost that temperature and wind is SW?????

  7. Bright sun in southern, VT with a few cu starting to develop.

    Pretty neat to see the effect of the thick forest on the temps.

    One example, is our campsite, which is tucked into the woods. Come out of it 20-30 yards and it’s an open field containing a paved looping road.

    Just walking across the campground from the edge of the forest to the open area, one can feel a noticeable difference. It was quite noticeable yesterday also, under cloudy conditions.

  8. June is an interesting month. I recall several very hot June days. One early 1984. Another around mid June maybe 1992/3. Conversely, I seem to recall more unusually cold June’s. Two that stick out are 1982 and 2011.

  9. Thank you, TK.

    Also, thank you for your advice on coolest (relative) days this week to plant

    For any landscapers who read WHW, I’d sure encourage you to ask re your area and weather. It’s been a tough planting season and TK has sure helped more than once

  10. Seattle Sea-Tac is up to 81 at 8 AM local time with a NNE wind at 9 mph. For them in this set up, that is a hot weather wind direction providing down sloping from the Cascades.

    I read a technical discussion from Seattle NWS indicating an expected high of 104 today and 110-112 tomorrow!
    Talking about obliterating all-time high temperature records!
    Wow! There is one hope for tomorrow. There could be a wind
    shift to sea breeze to bring some relief and perhaps occurring
    before reaching those insane high temps tomorrow. We shall see.

    from NWS

    with the current forecast showing
    104 for Seattle, 107 for Olympia and around 100 for Bellingham.

    Unfortunately, Monday still looks to be noticeably warmer for most locations than Sunday.

    This will result in even hotter temperatures
    by Monday afternoon, with potentially 110-112 in Seattle and Olympia and around 105 in Bellingham.

    full discussion:

    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=sew&product=AFD&format=CI&glossary=1

    1. Funny they used the word warmer in Unfortunately, Monday still looks to be noticeably warmer for most locations than Sunday.

      Wouldn’t one use the word HOTTER in this situation?

      Do they have the same staff as the B Norton Office??????

      Sorry but they used a POOR choice in a word.

      1. Their wording of “cooler”, “warmer”, “hotter” etc is bizarre in and often incorrectly applied. It’s been like that for several years now.

        I don’t remember the exact date, but once I saw “hotter” applied to highs in the 80s and “warmer” applied to highs in the lower 90s on the SAME FORECAST. And I’ve also seen “cooler” used quite incorrectly. I’m not sure why the QC is lacking, but it shouldn’t be.

  11. It’s after 11AM and Logan is only up to 82. At this point it seems
    unlikely that Logan reaches 90 today, despite all of the media
    hype. 🙂

    Who knows, I suppose it still could, but not looking that way to me.

      1. Logan’s & LWM’s thermometer readings are really sticking out as the 2 false hot spots as of 11AM. HAHAHAHA. Can it be any more obvious that those readings are shit? I’m so fed up with this crap today I’m not holding back. 😉

        FIX THEM!!!!
        And for the love of Peter Paul Mary & Alex get new sensors for the entire fleet! These ones suck slimy banana peels!!!

  12. Related to the temp (heatwave chatter) above…

    Boston’s thermometer is still off (by 2). NO doubt about that. So if they hit 90 or 91 today, it won’t actually be a 90 degree day. That will be important to take into account when counting for an official heatwave, even though it’s likely to just go into the record books as is and next fixed (sadly) – this angers me, rightly so. The data needs to be CORRECT. Period.

    Even so, I’m still not sure they even reach 90 today. They have time, but I’m just not sure it’s going to happen. NWS forecasts 91, so we’ll see.

  14. When Vicki mentioned June 1984, I immediately thought of Celtics – Lakers Finals at the old Garden. Those were the days! 🙂

    Looking back, it’s a wonder folks didn’t get ill from the intense heat during those times. No open windows or ventilation fans. Just 18,000+ packed in!

    Also, wasn’t the Mother’s Day Stanley Cup Finals in May 1970 somewhat hot as well? Those were the days also! 🙂

  15. Thank you, TK.

    Still only 84F where I am (Back Bay); sun trying to peek through a stubbornly thick cloud deck. It’s uncomfortable, but I’m hanging in there, thanks to a large oscillating fan.

    Seattle had some brutal heat in August of 1981, I’m told – mid to upper 90s for several days with dew points in the low 70s.

    Several large domes of expanding heat are impacting the Northern Hemisphere. We know about the one in North America. But there’s also one in Eastern/Southeastern Europe/Western Asia that’s fanning out to the west and east.

    1. 8/8/1981 PDX ties their all-time record of 107
      8/9/1981 PDX hits 105, 2 degrees shy of their all-time record
      8/10/1981 PDX hits ties their all-time record of 107.

      8/9/1981 SEA hits 99, tying their all-time record at the time.
      8/10/1981 SEA hits 98, 1 degree shy of their all-time record at the time.

      Yes, this current heat wave is worse, but they have had something at least similar before.

      1. The weather folks in that area have all posted the same. I am beyond impressed their no nonsense approach. It’s been shared here also. The question is will this be more of a norm with the climate change. No one pretends to have the answer not should they. But the possibility is there. 127 years for 3 100+ days in SEA and the POSSIBILITY of three in as many days. I can sure see why people who enjoy weather are intrigued

      2. Great example of the difference between “rare” and “unprecedented”. That is essential knowledge.

  16. Logan up to 88 with dp 72

    My sensor is reading 88 with dp 75

    Bedford and Beverly have dp of 73

      1. Your current Twitter thing reminds me of my early BBS experience in the 1990s. 😉 Love it!

  18. Boston at 88 (real temp 86). Gonna be close. Two more degrees for fake 90, four more for real 90.

  19. SAK, thanks for providing the details on the August 1981 heat in the Pacific Northwest.

    Temperature still holding steady at 85F in Back Bay. Not sure if 90F is in the cards here, though I’m sure there will be differences between temperatures in the various Boston neighborhoods.

  20. I suspect we are going to start seeing some pretty pessimistic forecasts for July 4th weekend.

    The GFS had some seemingly absurd forecasts for this time period. At one point it had 8 straight days of rain beginning around June 30 and continuing well into July. The GFS has wanted to cut off a low in Ohio in a pattern very atypical of July. The ECMWF has been much more progressive and brought some
    showers through Thursday and Friday and then make for a nice summer weekend Saturday through Monday.

    Now the 12z ECMWF has swung to a GFS solution with about 4″ of rain Thursday into Sunday with temperatures during the weekend trapped in the 60s. Memorial Day on July 4th.

    In my opinion, don’t despair. I still favor a frontal passage Thursday evening into Friday. Showers and Thunderstorms likely during that timeframe. Then there should be enough strength of high pressure to force out the front and make for a dry and seasonably warm July 3 through 5 with maybe a return flow allowing more humidity to reach SNE by the 5th. After that a summery pattern should persist.

    I am basing my prognostication, on some hope and optimism, but also climatology, the suspected synoptic set up at the time, and of course known model error and more recently for both the current versions of the GFS and ECMWF – OMA – Obvious Model Absurdity.

    3. Let’s hope that frontal passage is late Thursday evening. I have Sox tickets for the 1pm game. (6 rows off the field by the Pesky Pole)

      1. Great game today!!

        I’ll be at Hampton Beach all day Thursday, regardless of weather.

    4. Both ECMWF and GFS have had a tendency to under forecast high pressure coming out of eastern Canada.

  23. Wonder if Boone is feeling the figurative heat (and literal heat and humidity), or anyone in the Yankee front office. So far 2021 has been a disgraceful performance by the Yankees. The Yankees have a lot of talent and are playing like a mediocre team this season. Weird. I know coaches in baseball have minimal influence, but it seems like Boone is too laissez-faire. The Yankees need energy, a jolt of some sort.

  24. Seattle temp is 97. Wind is from the North, but with a slight component from the W. Will it make it to 100? We shall see.
    I would think it would need an E component to the wind to do so.

          1. The wind is from 340 there right now. That means it’s essentially blowing over land for several miles, including downwind of downtown. If it were 330 or 320, they’d feel more of a marine influence.

  25. One step forward two steps back for the Yankees this year. A frustrating season to say the least and no Yankees fan thought after77 games they would be 40-37 and in fourth place in the AL East

  27. JJ, I thought the Yankees would be the team to beat. They still could turn out to be that. But right now they’re a mess. It should be noted, however, that in 2009 the Red Sox won the first 8 games they played against the Yankees. I recall one game in which Ellsbury stole home on Pettitte. Well, we all know what happened later that year.

    1. The Yankees against the AL East. 5-8 against Tampa Bay 0-6 against Boston 6-6 against Toronto and 6-4 against Baltimore which is one of the reasons they are in 4th place.

  30. “BREAKING: Lytton BC has hit a maximum temperature of 45.5C (114F) as of 240 pm local, setting a new ALL TIME MAXIMUM for Canada. Old record was 45.0C (113F) in July 1937. Temp will certainly go a bit higher this afternoon with a few more hours of heating to go #BCheat”

  31. I think I’m addicted to the poppy seed salad from Panera. What a great dinner on a hot evening. 🙂

  33. JMA you were right on the money about the forecasts starting to pop up about the much wetter pattern at the end of next week…

    Gonna stick with my idea at this time, which also agrees with yours. Obviously low confidence by default, but I don’t think we need to be getting too discouraged this far in advance. 🙂

  34. So, this non-tropical low level circulation with a few patchy middle clouds partially around it east of the Georgia/Florida border and a blob of thunderstorms with no circulation under it well to its northeast suddenly goes from a low chance of development to a 50% chance of development offshore of the US Southeast? Anyone wanna guess what’s gonna happen? 😉

    They’re either going to name a deck of altocumulus clouds or a batch of showers and thunderstorms. Take your pick.

  35. Spokane hit 100 at 3:00 pm. Some really nice memories there of sitting around a tiny sprinkler in my sister in laws driveway during another 100 degree day with family who are now watching from above

  36. Hey JPD Seattle did it 104 at 5:29 PM PDT. Wind switched and was no longer going over runway to cool it down.

    It also had a record high minimum 73

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