Feels Like Winter!

243 Comments

3:26PM

The headline is for the immediate weather: COLD. Not record cold. But cold nevertheless, especially compared to what we have seen. Even this cold shot will not last too long, as milder weather lies ahead yet again as we hit the end of the week. Beyond Saturday, my forecast confidence drops off quickly due to great spread among the various guidance, so for today I’m using a blend of my favorite model (ECMWF for those that care) and a little gut feeling, and a vague forecast will be the result, so please check back if you want my thoughts as I figure out what will happen.

In the more immediate future, our cold snap will last through tomorrow before a weak system passing north of the region moderates the temperatures for Thursday. A slight chill-down on Friday will be followed by another warm-up on Saturday, and then a chill-down once again later in the weekend, though not to the level we are at now. A low pressure area is expected to slide south and east of New England on Sunday. With colder air in place, or at least close by, it’s a little too early to say what type of precipitation will would see from this system, assuming it comes close enough to give us any.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 5-10. Wind NW 10-15 MPH gusting 20-25 MPH. Wind chill near to below zero at times.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. High 23-28. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 15-20. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. High 33-38. Wind WSW 10-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 22. High 33.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 28. High 44.

SUNDAY:  Cloudy. Chance of rain or snow. Low 30. High 38.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 35.

243 thoughts on “Feels Like Winter!”

  1. TK, glad to hear your dad is doing better this afternoon. Its not easy seeing a parent not feeling well and in the hospital, so I hope your ok as well.

    1. It’s hard to see, and I know you went through a lot recently. So far the outlook is good for him. He is 88, and these things start to happen, but still you want them to be comfortable no matter what happens.

      Optimistic he’ll be home tomorrow or the day after.

      2. TK my very best. Good wishes and prayers for you all. I know how horribly difficult it is and the toll mentally and physically it takes on you too

  2. Looking east and southeast over the ocean is a wall of dark cumulus clouds. Some fish out there are probably getting snowed on.

    1. Tom right at horizon all day it appears to be huge waves. Or are those clouds?? It’s literally sitting on the ocean at the horizon and only extends up a tiny bit. We’ve been fascinated by it. Looks like an armada of ghost ships 🙂

  3. Hopefully it will be snowing on us late in the weekend instead of the fish. BaileyMan said a storm would happen between the 7th-11th of the month. WeatherWizard felt the first half of January would be the best shot of seeing snow.

    1. I think odds favor at least mix for the Sunday system and mix to rain for anything that happens around the 12th, because we have to go through at least another rebuilding of the SE ridge before we see anything more significantly different.

  4. TK, Thank you for the update. Very sorry to hear about your Dad, but pleased to hear that he is doing a little better.

  5. TK, Many thanks for the update.

    Well, at least we have a system and probably 2 to watch.

    Not thinking we have much of a chance with the 2nd system.

    Looking towards system #1 to give us something. Time will tell.

  6. If I read Matt Noyes correctly, from what was posted on the blog last evening, then today is a test of his thinking. I think its 33F in Atlanta, GA and in the 40s down to the Florida Panhandle. I think the point he was making was that there was an above avg amount of heat content in the southern and southeast part of the USA, but if a cold shot got down into that region, it might help alleviate some of the heat content remaining. Well, its cold down there. It will be interesting to see if this affects our Saturday warmup and helps to change the storm track any.

  7. Melissa’s morning blog mentions a possibility for snow on Sunday-Sunday night. It will be interesting if the evening tv mets mention snow for Sunday. We will see.

    I would say that if we don’t get any snow before MLK weekend, then no more opportunties for the rest of the month. So far NAO looks positive thereafter so February-March-early April will be our last chances. Regardless, below normal snowfall is pretty much a surety for Boston and most of SNE.

    TK, I hope your father can leave the hospital and recover soon! 🙂

  8. Does anyone here know why Boston Buoy has not reported in over a month?

    I imagine ocean temps are around 44-47 degrees?

    1. I don’t know, but I can tell you that
      the other Buoy a little farther out at Stellwagen is
      at: 45.9 as of this afternoon.

  9. NWS out of Upton, NY indicating a storm coming up the coast but with warm air in place it will start as rain but there could be a band of accumulating snow northwestern areas. Will see if that happens across the interior in SNE. I think this maybe our best shot because as some people have indicated the NAO is going positive again.

    1. JJ,

      As long as you mention the NWS, I found this discussion from the GRAY, ME
      office to be even MORE interesting:

      GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES… WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND TRACKING NORTHEAST. THERE ARE TRACK AND TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE TWO MODELS… WITH THE GFS TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AND THE ECMWF TRACKING MORE SLOWLY WHILE HUGGING THE COAST AND INTENSIFYING. THE ECMWF HAS A BETTER TRACK RECORD
      ESPECIALLY THIS SEASON. BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND BRING SOME SNOW TO OUR AREA. GFS SOLUTION ONLY PROVIDES A COUPLE OF INCHES… WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW. THE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE TWO IN BOTH PRODUCING A
      COASTAL LOW WITHIN 100 MILES OR SO OF EACH OTHER IS VERY GOOD CONSIDERING THIS IS DAY 6 OF THE FORECAST. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT SOME SNOW MAY FALL SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS BUT THERE IS ROOM TO GO UP MORE IF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IMPROVES.

        1. I would much prefer the GFS verify with a couple inches of widespread snow than the Euro with a foot of snow for the interior and all rain for Boston.

      2. i hope the foot of snow happens. It will be nice compared to the brown ground. Right now i would not get excited

  10. With some help from sun data for Boston from Taunton NWS…..

    Tomorrow is the latest sunrise of January, with a one second loss (later rise) compared to yesterday. With solar noon moving later, the sunset is 55 seconds later for an overall net gain of 54 seconds.

    By Friday, Boston gains more than one minute of sunlight per day.

    The sun will now be gaining .1 of a degree in altitude daily, that is until mid month, when it will be gaining .2 of a degree daily and towards the very end of the month, nearly .3 of a degree daily, for a total gain of 5 degrees of elevation by month’s end.

    1. Hey Tom, that late sunrise will return yet again in early March with DST. 🙁

      DST = Daylight “Stupid” Time 🙂

      1. In the 70s we set clocks ahead in January instead of April to save energy. Thought was more people home in evening that would not use lights. We were at work and kids at bus stop in
        Pitch black. It was interesting.

        1. Yes Vicki, I remember those days. I was in junior high at the time. I hate late sunrises but I love early sunsets.

          1. I also wish that we could get rid of DST altogether and just stay “standard” year round.

            Not likely to happen in my lifetime for sure, if ever. People love late sunsets too much.

            1. I also love early sunsets. I loved being at work in the 70s and looking out the window at the sunrise too:)

      2. Hi Philip.

        How true. On one hand, I like the March DST change. On the other hand, when its 28F at 6pm and the sun is shining on a clear March evening, I somehow find that discouraging. The light wants to drag me outside and the cold stops me in my tracks.

  11. Here is the text from the NWS out of Upton, NY. We got a watcher here
    MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE LOW PROGGED TO TRACK UP THE COAST AND IMPACT
    THE AREA SAT NGT AND SUN. THE EXACT TIMING WILL HAVE TO BE
    REFINED…BUT THE 12Z ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONALS DO INDICATE THAT
    THE FEATURE IS LIKELY. GFS IS CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE ENSEMBLE
    MEMBERS. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS THE WRN OUTLIER. FCST FOLLOWS CLOSE TO
    THE OPERATIONAL GFS.

    THE COLD AIR WILL NOT BE IN PLACE AT THE ONSET OF THE SYSTEM…SO
    PCPN IS LIKELY TO START AT RAIN EVERYWHERE. AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS
    IN…A BAND OF FROGEN DEVELOPS. THIS WILL ASSIST IN PRODUCING
    HEAVIER PCPN RATES AS WELL AS BETTER DYNAMIC COOLING IN DEEPER LIFT.
    FOR THESE REASONS…A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
    WITH THE LOW. FAVORED AREAS WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN INTERIOR…BUT
    THE BAND COULD MAKE IT CLOSER TO THE COAST IF A TRACK NEAR OR E OF
    THE GFS IS REALIZED. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS COME IN SLOWER AND NOTICEABLY
    DEEPER…SO POPS HAVE BEEN LINGERED INTO SUN NGT. IF THIS TREND
    CONTINUES THE BULK OF THE PCPN COULD BE SUN AFTN AND EVE

    1. ZZZZZ….waiting for the 18Z GFS to see if it still has it and if it UPS
      the qpf. To a lesser extent, I’d like to see what the 18Z DGEX has to say
      as well.

  12. I sincerely think we may end up having no snow the rest of this month (remarkable), unless we count traces to an inch or so. I also do not think Boston gets below 12 tonight, and if I am interpreting the models correctly 12 may be the minimum this winter (again, quite remarkable) unless February has something in store for us in terms of harsh cold (which is highly doubtful). Even with the positive NAO and La Nina and all the other variables this winter is somewhat baffling to me, especially given the serious lack of snow and cold across most of the contiguous 48 states.

    1. That would drop Boston’s 30 year snowfall average from about 42 inches
      to 40.6 inches or so. Wouldn’t that be something????

      1. btw, who came up with using a 30 year average?
        I think we should be using a total average from the day
        records started being kept. Any other thoughts?

    2. I think Logan’s low for today is 11 degrees, but a few miles inland (Brighton) we bottomed out at 8 degrees and are currently at a balmy 9 degrees! Love the snow, but single digit temps… not so much.

      1. Sorry, the panels I wanted didn’t show. Look at hours
        120, 126 and 132 for the progression of the system through
        our area.

        12Z GFS coming out.

  14. TK- Again I am sorry that your dad is not feeling well, I hope he can get back home soon. Hang in there pal.

  17. Harvey said low confidance for Sunday- Pete said wet at 39. I am sure this will change a thousand times. Pete said rain So I would plan for snow.

      1. For sure Charlie- It will not be a snowless month at all. Maybe Sunday, maybe not but It’s coming real soon. Trust me on this one. I will predict we get at least 8 inches this month. But I feel It will be more than that.

  18. I know I said something’s brewing for mid month but it’s also very possible it could be a rain event from Boston to Providence

    1. Got to the mall. Husband who is not techy and had an ancient phone got the iPhone 3GS for 99 cents. It was like pulling teeth to get him to do that but hr now has a phone that works to drive back and forth from here. Got inexpensive binoculars for me too :$

      1. I’m not sure if you have been there before, but It’s a nice mall. Sure has come along way from when I was a kid.

        1. I had been there John. Took my oldest to her first movie ever in 1983 there to see snow white. It was first time it had been in theaters in years and of course VHS didn’t exist. It’s my kind of mall. Not overwhelming like natick

      2. Good deal! I’m expecting my new 4s iPhone. Wish mine only cost 99 cents. Not only was it 2 C-notes, but since July the state taxes you on the wholesale value of the phone, not the discounted price. Can’t wait to see what weather apps are available. Any suggestions???

  21. Interesting…Pete Bouchard (of all people) is calling for all rain, but Harvey and Todd are going for either rain and/or snow for Sunday.

  23. TK-My best to you and your family.

    Don’t get caught up in the model runs, especially the 6z and 18z…If it were up to me 6z and 18z would only run to 60hrs

    1. Hi Vicki.

      Yeah, I know what you are talking about. I dont know if this answer is correct but, I do think its waves out at sea that we are seeing. That northwest wind probably builds the seas quite quickly out away from the shore.

      1. Wow. It’s amazing. Thanks for the help. We drove by high/middle school today and I “waved” to you. My husband just laughed. He knows I’m more than a bit nuts

  26. TK I know this goes without saying but I have a tendency to state the obvious and am too old to stop now:). You have your hands full. Everyone here can hold down the fort. Please make updating posts here a very LOW priority!! Thank you for all you do

    1. Second your thoughts……

      Vicki, full moon next Monday…tides begin to increase some starting Thursday and are somewhat decent by the weekend. If a storm comes around Sunday, that could be a pretty good tide to see. Nothing that will flood, but pretty high.

      1. Vicki, I echo your thoughts as well. There are certainly no weather issues the rest of the week other than the now usual roller-coaster temps…and even if there were stormy times coming, family comes first and foremost!

        And besides, between OS, Hadi and Scott we are more than covered here with all the different models, Lol. 🙂

      2. Some waves tonight so will hope for more this weekend. If not too windy and no precip we will have fire on beach sat nite I hope. Son will be here then

        1. No fire on the beach. Don’t you know the rules. LOL. What area you guys renting in, and for how long. Have you gone out to eat yet.

          1. Really ??? Everyone has fires when we are here in summer. We are on Atlantic drive. We can’t have one in winter

            1. Easy- I’m just playing with ya, fire away.
              All kidding aside I don’t think you can have fires on the beach. I am almost certain you can get away with it. I really was just kidding.

              1. I’m not positive. I know there are tons of them in summer I think you are right that they don’t encourage it but also don’t enforce. Maybe I should call fire dept. Son has done tons of camping and hiking so is incredibly cautious but don’t Want to cause problems either.

                1. Vicki- I was so kidding. I wish I did not say anything. Please do not call fire dept. light away and enjoy. I was joking.

  27. As I said earlier the Sunday storm Potential is a watcher. Its too early to say what kind of precipitation will fall. I am not sold this will be just a rain event at this time but I don’t see a blockbuster snow event.

    1. Just got done reading the blog from pete. He is sold,sold and more sold on rain.
      I better prepare for a call in.

      1. Pete must not realize the changes going on in our pattern, he’s either going with an all rain scenario or a no storm at all scenario..

        1. His words were a storm is there one day and gone the next. He said he doubts It will even be in his forcast tomorrow.

          1. I’m not saying this will be rain but I’m beginning to lean towards another rain event, next…. 🙂

            2. Pete is 1oo% sold on rain Vicki. Harvey did not say it in that way. But he seemed to not have high hopes for anything big.

  28. When Pete doesn’t hype usually that means this is rain all the way for Boston to Providence 🙂

    1. If pete is saying rain, fire up the snowblower. Harvey’s tone was low on it. He said it had = chances. From what I got from him If It is snow It will not be a big deal.

      1. John – and I know I’m repeating – but I follow pete and more often when he commits and others ride the fence he’s right. Not all the time but he was right with Earl and Irene and Halloween storm. I would rather a person commits and stick his neck out than be safe. Haha. Probably because I am famous for sticking my neck out 🙂

          1. I do like him. Very nice person. What post. I mostly use my phone here so miss some with the small screen

  30. Tonight: The coldest so far of the season the temps will dip into the single digits.
    wednesday : the coldest day so far this year with highs struggling in the mid 20s . temps will start out around zero.
    wednesday night Partly cloudy lows in the mid 10s
    thursday and thursday night partly cloudy highs in the low 30s ,lows in the upper 10s
    friday increasing clouds highs in the low 30s.
    friday night through sunday as of now looks mostly cloudy with highs in the 30s lows in the mid to upper 20s.
    monday through tuesday partly sunny highs in the low 30s ,lows in 10s

    there is a possibility of a winter storm for saturday night through sunday night but recent model runs have hinted at a weaker and warmer storm or a storm tracking to far south. Keep in mind its about 5 to 6 days out so there will be movement in the track ,intensity, temperature and upper atmospheric conditions. No one should get their hopes up on this possible storm. right now i think mainly clouds with a few flurries for the cape and islands.

      1. the models were saying it earlier were saying the leading edge will effect us late saturday night or predawn hours of sunday and last through the day and it will only happen if it makes it far enough north and west but not to far north and west

      1. For sure. I seem to remember that kind of thing, having been fortunate to be down in Florida during a school winter vacation.

    2. Yes they are! My brother is vacationing on a beach in the Tampa area right now, and not at all thrilled that he should have packed his hat and gloves instead of a bathing suit!

  33. They put out the fire pits today for Sunday’s opening of the skating surface. I think It will be a pool instead of ice.

    1. Wow. Fire pits around the rink. I love it. My daughter and husband love the town. Smaller town feel

        1. I’d love to live on the water. It’s far from my older daughter and her family. We will see what retirement brings 🙂

  34. This is will not be a blockbuster if it does snow. I am hoping for a light accumulation but my hopes are not high after being disappointed a few times during the month of December.

  35. I am beginning to think that we are jinxed this winter. I am agitated with this:)). I find it depressing that winter has no snow. Today was miserable in my mind, cold with a feeble sun!! Can you tell I am mad!!!

      2. It seems like not all think that. We will get snow, we will get snow, we will get snow, we will get snow. Did I say we will get snow.

      3. Tk is right. Basically winter is only 12 days old and we have many more weeks that will continue in this snowless winter. Might as well get use to it. At least this cold weather might freeze the ponds to go skating.

  36. I know TK!! I think I have been spoiled recently.

    John I think we sneak some snow in on the back end. I think Saturday’s temps are a big factor ie if we get near or above 50 or don’t drop at night enough it will end being rain on Sunday/Monday.

  38. John I hope we will have above normal snowfall. If you look at the stats they all lead to below normal snowfall. An October snowfall, temps above normal in both October and November, and a snowless December.

    1. Stats don’t hold this winter. We finish just above. I know this will be the case. People are giving up way to early here. Winter is just weeks old. There is no way we finish below. A few big ones coming soon.

    2. I know stats show low snowfall in winters with oct snow but is that just a fluke or is there a reason?

      1. Vicki, I don’t know the reason but the corelation between low snowfall totals and October snows are no fluke. The stats have shown it since record keeping began.

        Maybe TK can explain?

  39. As I said last week lets see where we are at the end of January in terms of snowfall. Some of our biggest storms have come in the months of January and February. The blizzard of 78, The blizzard of 96, and The Presidents Day Storm of 2003 come to mind.

  42. Winds have picked up here…
    COLD out there.

    Dad is doing ok. Still in rough shape but under great care and the outlook remains good. We will see what tomorrow brings. Thanks everyone! 🙂

    1. My dad was in a similar position. Just watch out for c-diff. Ask the nurses if anyone has it on the floor. Even if it is not present, prepare and act like it is.

      2. Good point Coastal. My mother was exposed to both c-diff and MRSA while recovering in the hospital from pnemonia. Good hand washing/sanitizer is your best defense!

  43. All is not lost in this winter…..I think its proving beneficial to the arctic…….With the +NAO and progressive flow at high latitudes, the arctic air has been plenty sitting up in the arctic. Its showing up in ice cover, which is starting to not be so far below the norm.

    The past few winters with all of the blocking was cold and snowy for the mid latitudes, but it was mild for the arctic.

    Maybe a sacrificed winter at the mid latitudes will come at the replenishment of arctic sea ice, which overall should be good for the atmosphere and planet.

    1. Our heat keeps running and running and running to try to keep up to the programmed temp. Hasnt been that way very often, there have been days and some nights where its clicked on a couple of times.

  45. I hear ya Tom, mine has been on most of the night. It’s tough with young kids sleeping who don’t use covers yet so we keep the heat higher then before kids.

    2. I just had my house insulated over a month ago. I noticed a huge drop of in the furnace run time but tonight she is on more than usual.

      1. Thats on our to-do list. I think it would help us in the summer as well. My A/C fights a losing battle on hot days until the sun gets very low in the sky.

        1. If you heat with gas there are rebates offered. We got $2000 off the cost and only spent $2400. Our payback is 3.1 years which isn’t bad. Mass-save is another place to look.

          2. Mass-Save HES is an excellent program (no income criteria) Had them at my home today and found out my roof/attic is wide open (uninsulated) which is why I’ve been having such bad ice damming. Check it out, it’s a big help if you need to insulate your home!!!

  46. Tweet from Harvey earlier.

    Some chance of some snow or rain on Sunday…but, NOT a high confidence forecast yet

    1. That is pretty much what Harvey said at 6:00. I am beginning to get a feeling that between now and early April storms are going to start showing up and disappearing and showing up again, etc. on the weather maps a lot. This is typical of below normal snowfall winters moreso than normal-above normal ones…at least it seems that way.

  50. 121-year average Boston snowfall = 43.0″ (exactly) 🙂

    I don’t understand though why a 30-year average is used…any ideas?

  51. I loved the winter of 95-96 with over 100 inches of snow. At the rate we were going last January I thought snowfall would get close to 100 inches.

  52. I switched to gas couple years ago and it was the best thing we did. I am closing to recouping what I spent in it 4 years ago.

  55. Currently 11 degrees in Marblehead, imagine if we had a snow pack and lighter winds, would be the recipe for sub zero lows.

  56. The 00z GFS, though it is getting a little better idea of upcoming trends, is horrendously bad in its placement and timing of surface features pretty much from 72 hours onward. Don’t even bother.

  57. Sorry to nit-pick but what’s up with the NWS’s wording: “much cooler .. low around 9”? how about “very cold .. low around 9”? … oh it’s just a pleasantly cool upper single #’s this evening. That might work for Siberia, but not Boston.

    2. they heard what was going on the wbz blog some one commented .IF you are talking about the wbz mets.
      Geoff posted this
      “If there is one phrase that really annoys me it’s “the coldest weather of the season”. Of course it is, it is January.” and
      Coach23 said
      “Coldest weather of the season.” Are we really starting that again. It’s January, get over it. It has to be the most ridiculous remark and yet every weather person is making it. Can’t you come up with anything better?”

      people like this might be the reason why they are watching what they say

  59. I do believe we have a pattern change around mid month 12-17th along with a snow event, it’s just so weird I thought yesterday that the cold would come in around the 12th and now it could come in possibly as late as 17th, I’m telling ya the people that think winter will come back with avengence I think is respectably crazy but I’m sure alot of u think I’m crazy, will c

  61. I think we will get 22.8 inches of snow for the remainder of the year, I think this amount will come only cause this was my guess in Oct-Nov, hagaha 🙂

  64. The suns angle is now around 20 degrees south of equator and heading this way, it always amazes me how fast the sun gets higher in sky from now till March

  65. TK, your NWS comments are so true. I stopped reading alot of their stuff mostly because it’s never written in “humanese” and when it is, it’s laughable half the time. Why can’t they just say it will be very cold tonight with temperatures dropping to 9F??

  67. Well the EURO/GFS show nothing for this weekend, a souther slider that’s OTS.

    Charlie there are always surprises out there…..

  68. Good Morning – was 11 here at 5:30 am. Ch 7 has nothing for this weekend except possible snow shower on Sunday night. Who said the storms keep disappearing? They sure do. Meanwhile several friends are complaining about the temps – I’d say anyone who doesn’t like cold should be celebrating that it took four days into January to get cold 🙂

  71. Not much out there OS, TK did elude to a JJ scale 2 storm around the 14.

    BTW I would not take much from any of the GFS at this point. It appears that it’s having a very hard time with the overall set up. I guess the EURO also seems to be suffering from simialr issues. 1 run has a huge storm and the next doesn’t, that tells me that they are having a hard time overall.

    1. AMEN to that!
      What a Winter season so far. I’m beginning to think that it
      may be SNOWLESS the rest of the way.

        2. I do believe we get a light to moderate snow event somewhere around the 15th, it’s to early to tell accumulation but I would bet its a 3-6 inch snow event then it’s cold for a time only to be followed by a mild spell for how long I’m not sure

          1. Then again if I was on television I would never say that as that far out u would have a better chance of getting shot in the woods by a state trooper that mistakes u for a deer, haha really it’s not funny, me and my wife said why is there even deer hunting inside 495, absolutely crazy, anyways take it easy everyone

            1. I agree about banning any form of hunting inside 495 – too populated. I was surprised the woman was in the woods during hunting season. My daughter and her friends never took their ponies/horses in the woods and even in their paddocks on the edge of the woods the horses wore reflector gear. Kids did too when they were in the paddocks with the horses

  73. today . mostly sunny highs in the low 20s,
    tonight increasing clouds lows in the upper 10s rising into the low to mid 20s
    thursday through friday partly to mostly cloudy highs in the low to mid 30s lows in the low to mid 20s
    friday night cloudy lows in the upper 20s and low 30s
    saturday more clouds than sun. highs in the mid 40s with a wind shift.
    saturday night and sunday mostly cloudy lows in the upper 20s highs in the mid to upper 30s

    This week is kind of set in stone we know whats going to happen unless a large change happens. the question is this up coming weekend. How warm does it get saturday. When does our next possible weather system come and how close does it track to us. how much cold air is in place. All questions that we will not know because the models are going all over the place. The recent model runs have hinted at the storm going to far south with a few snow showers or flurries for the cape and islands. Other ones have the storm coming up and being a larger storm but in the form of rain.
    this storm has not even formed yet .

    1. I think we can pretty much kiss this weekend’s storm Good-Bye!!
      That is unless there is some sort of surprise!!!

  75. I will say that the storm for the 12th time frame has not even gotten in the US so sampling on it is not good.

  77. Good old Henry over at Accu thinks that there may be something brewing around the 12th… that is if every phases together. Big if! Anyways, he also feels that the SOI values have really ‘crashed’ (debatable!) and that the NAO is going neg, but will it hold? probably not! No block so 95 corridor will most likely get rain if anything does get its act together.

  78. The trolls over on WBZ are trying to spread false rumors about Melissa today. Even yesterday some were harrassing her regarding her blog wording descriptions of cold, cool, coldest, etc. No discussing of weather over there as of yet, so what else is new? Lol. 🙂

  79. 12Z GFS has something cooking down in the Gulf at the 150 hour mark. Not sure
    of eventual track or timing, but strongly suspect if/when it gets here => RAIN!

    1. As suspected. A very Vigorous INSIDE RUNNER for 1/12:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F04%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=189&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

      Now we need to get this to trend to the EAST!!! Fat Chance of that! Lol

    1. It isn’t my friend either. As you know, we are just searching all of the time.

      I’ll be wating on the 12Z Euro to get a sanity check on that one.

      BUT, given the season so far, IF anything is going to happen around
      the 12th or so, I’d wager just about anything that it would be an
      inside runner.

  81. Wow I’m not a big watcher of each model run but good lord we may go through jan snowless, everyone keeps saying this will come around or that will come around, I’m not sure anything will come around, I’m almost ready to root against the 1936-37 season, also went to the back pond this am just to see and it’s around 1-2 inches thick and water in the center and it’s Jan, I’m wondering if this weekend mild spell will melt it and there will be no ice on it and by then we will be going into mid Jan, have a good day

    1. We’re huge on Ice Fishing, not sure we’re going to make it this year! Maybe something in February…. Every year I buy each of my kids one top of the line wooden tip up trap so they will eventually have a full set to take with them when they move on out… Hopefully we can get out once or twice later in the year.

      TJ

  82. I don’t think this will be the least snowiest on record. We still got the rest of January, February and March to get through.

  87. Still a lot of pacific air on the long range GFS, with not a lot of western ridging. May be a model error of sorts though.
    That PV does look promising, also heights are shown to be building over Alaska.
    I think any snow will wait till the second half of the month.

  88. I am hoping we could get a snowarama instead of a rainorama as depicted by the GFS for 1/12. Will see what tune to the 12z EURO sings when it comes out shortly.

      1. it’s unbelievable!! We r now looking into the 3rd week of Jan for the 1st snow. We r a foot below average to date, and by the 3rd week of Jan we will be around 20 inches below average to date.

  90. Scott I saw the pacific air, but it really builds the cold here in the east. Could be error of course.

  91. 12Z GEM does not go out far enough for the 1/12 event, HOWEVER, it does show
    a LOADED system in the guld with WARM air ALL the way up to our area. “hint” of
    a more Eastward track based on 500MB heights depicted, but who knows. IF this
    were to pan out, would need Eastward track and some colder air to filter in ahead
    of the system. A long shot at best. See what Euro has to say.

  92. Some of our biggest storms formed in the Gulf of Mexico. I don’t if the ingredients will be here this time around. If we could get a strong low to form on the coast that could yank the cold air down.

    1. Euro at 150 hours has an incredibly JUICY system down near the
      Gulf in East Texas near Louisiana. Not sure how it will translate, but
      man is it LOADED!!

        1. UGH!!

          Euro at 180 hours has system pretty much centered
          over Kentucky, CLEARLY an INSIDE RUNNER.
          btw, it has lost some of its punch since leaving the Gulf
          area. Too bad we didn’t have a nice Artic high to the North, perhaps forcing this to redevelop on the coast.
          Nothing to stop this inside runner. Freight train delivering RAIN!

  93. An UGH for now but there is time for that to change and if just moves east a little bit there would be different outcome.
    UGH meter at a 2 for now.

    1. UGH meter?

      0=the Best case
      10=the worse case

      OR

      0=worse case
      10=Best case

      I am somewhat confused now.

    1. That’s what I though you originally had. I was confused because
      you only have it at a 2 now. Mine is already at a 10 because I KNOW
      it ain’t gonna change!!! Lol If anything, it gets warmer and wetter!

  95. Hi all! Quick update on my dad and the weather…

    Dad: Talked to him on the phone, which was actually a call I made by accident when I meant to call my mom at home first. He answered, which surprised me, and sounded much better, which was a nice surprise. I think he’s in for at least one more night. Going to visit now. Again thanks for all your support. 🙂

    Weather: Storm on the 8th – not completely off the table, but falling off the edge quickly, per 12z Euro. Storm on the 12th – odds favor a warm storm. Storm on the 14th – odds favor a cold storm but of course this being the furthest away it’s also the most uncertain. 🙂

  97. It was a rather strong 36 hr cold blast, but…when its month end and we look back, we might not remember it being that. Why ? Because yesterday, Logan recorded its high temp at the very start of the day (midnight). It was 35F. Today, though it doesnt feel it, has made it to 27F. I thought yesterday and today were going to wash out the above normal temps of the first 2 days, but now I dont think so. We are off to the races again as far as above normal temps, as Logan only has to reach 36F/23F now to be normal.

    1. To be more specific…its a numbers game. There’s Saturday and early next week. Saturday looks +10F above normal and an inside runner is either going to create a warm high temp or a real warm low temp. So, even if 5 of the next 7 are near normal, those other 2 days are likely to skew the average.

  98. 12Z EURO does have lots of cold air in the long range just like the GFS. I am liking the look of both.

  102. I actually heard someone say: “I’ve had enough of this cold weather for one winter!” today. 2-day tolerance for a New Englander is pretty lame.

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