Wednesday June 30 2021 Forecast (7:31AM)

146 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 30 – JULY 4)

On this final day of June we will also experience the final day of high heat and humidity in this early summer stretch of it. Unlike the last 2 days, today carries a risk of more regional thunderstorm activity as a cold front approaches. The timing looks a little later on this today, with the primary threat for the WHW forecast area coming in the 4PM through 9PM time frame from northwest to southeast. There can be a couple isolated shower or storms popping up ahead of that threat window, as early as 2PM or so. The greatest threat for severe weather is damaging wind with the storms. Small hail is a potential, along with the usuals: heavy downpours, lightning. If a storm cluster forms and trains over the same area for a while, which is possible, then flash flooding would become a threat, so we’ll have to watch for this as well. If you plan to be outside today into this evening, obviously plan for both the high heat and humidity and watch for approaching or developing storms – and have a plan! Once we get by this threat tonight, the cold front that delivers it will also deliver slightly cooler and less humid air, but only down a little bit, and as the front washes out over far southern New England Thursday we’ll still feel a bit of humidity and it will be a warm day, but we’ll be dealing with a lot more high and mid level cloudiness than we’ve seen during the last few days. An influx of moisture will head northeastward toward our region Thursday night while a second frontal boundary pushes through from the north. This front may trigger a few more showers and thunderstorms in the region Thursday afternoon, and the combination of it and the moisture arriving from the southwest is expected to bring more widespread showers to the region later Thursday night into a portion of Friday, before we see a drying trend north to south, along with much cooler air this time. High pressure from Canada will push the unsettled weather further south as we reach the holiday weekend, but upper level low pressure will still be stretched out across the region and will take a good deal of time to depart, so at this point I cannot rule out some scattered shower activity Saturday and isolated showers for Sunday. As far as the actual weekend goes, humidity levels will be quite manageable, and Saturday will be the cooler of the two days with a general northeasterly flow. The wind should be variable then eventually more westerly on Sunday allowing for a bit of a warm up to get underway.

TODAY: Early clouds north central MA and southern NH otherwise mostly sunny through midday. Partly to variably cloudy this afternoon and evening with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible by mid afternoon, then scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms from northwest to southeast later afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms can become severe. Highs 88-95, cooler South Coast.. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with showers and thunderstorms favoring eastern and southern areas. Partly cloudy with patchy ground fog forming overnight. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy but some sunshine. Highs 75-80 South Coast, 80-85 elsewhere. Dew point middle 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Numerous showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming N to NE.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, especially CT, RI, southern MA. Highs 68-75. Dew point near 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 55-62.Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers possible, favoring central MA, eastern CT, and RI. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Wind NE up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers possible, mainly southwestern NH and central MA. Highs 75-82. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 5-9)

Warmer slightly more humid with a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms later July 5 and again July 6 with a couple disturbances passing by. Mostly fair and seasonable weather mid to late period with weak high pressure in control, but this remains a low confidence forecast.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 10-14)

Near to above normal temperatures and an increase in humidity but with a slightly better chance of showers and thunderstorms as a frontal boundary hangs out in the region.

146 thoughts on “Wednesday June 30 2021 Forecast (7:31AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    0.24 inch in a nice little T-storm yesterday with some nice gusty winds.

  8. As of 8:54 AM, Logan is already up to 89. Yikes!
    dp 70 All other obs are 83-85.

    real temp in JP: 83

  9. Thanks TK
    I expect a severe thunderstorm watch to be posted sometime this afternoon. Far northern CT Boston Worcester area look to be in the sweet spot for strong to severe thunderstorms.

  10. From NWS Boston I am not sure how good the HREF model is when it comes to severe weather
    HREF updraft helicities suggest best chance for
    severe weather will be along and north of I-84 and I-90 corridors in northern CT and interior MA to BOS area, mainly 3-9 pm.

  13. Thanks TK

    I asked yesterday and may well have missed the answer.

    Does anyone have experience with the Kestrel 5200 or any other Kestrel meters?

  16. More watches likely on the way:

    Current expectations are for robust
    storm development to occur by 16-17Z (Noon – 1 PM EDT), and multiple
    Severe Thunderstorm Watches will likely be issued to address this
    increasing severe threat.

  17. The potential for damaging winds is the biggest threat with these thunderstorms today. This will start the step down process from this heat and humidity.

    1. I’d love you to share the reasoning behind that hunch?

      I don’t care if severe under performs, but surely would like a bunch of rain!

    2. My VERY unscientific thought as we had the several cells to through here last night was that they took energy with them so we may be spared some today. Yup. I know there is a whole day and a ton of heat to rebuild any energy. And I know it is absolely illogical. But….

      1. I don’t that is the reasoning.

        My guess is some sort of down slopping occurs, knocking
        down the dew points, meaning less fuel for t-storms.

        However, I am most curious to know what is driving TK’s hunch. It’s something for sure!

        1. Which absolutely demolishes my theory. Our temp dropped significantly last night with the storms but DP held at 71.

        2. On 2nd thought, perhaps more likely the front slows down
          such that the lifting action doesn’t get into SNE and existing storms die out or approach SNE in weakened form.

          OR the action gets here too late and we will have lost the heating and fuel for storms.

          Something like the above as dps are ridiculous!!!!

  24. Would love any rain as well! Our town has a complete water ban and my lawn is now bone dry. Hoping for some good soaking rain this week.

    1. Wow. That stinks. We are watering and our lawn is still drying up. I hadn’t seen water bans in Ma, but then I haven’t gone far from Sutton.

  25. Thanks, TK!

    94 degrees at 12:45. Our dewpoint was 75 at 11 am!!

    Thinking of Mrs. OS, as always, Dave. Hopefully just another day of this.

  27. There’s been a high cirrus cloud shield mixed with low cumulus clouds on the northern third of the horizon, while we’ve been baking under nearly full sun and have built up significant instability.

    I can now, in the last 15 minutes, see some ominous towers quickly building in the same N and NW direction.

    I’m a bit uneasy about what may be coming. Closed our canopy up and brought in things that could be affected by sudden gusty winds.

    About 2 miles outside of Manchester, VT yesterday, there was either a strong outflow or some kind of microburst as power lines were down, streets were rerouted and there was small but concentrated areas of tree debris in spots.

  28. Given our location, I’m using the Albany NWS radar and there’s a cell over Utica, NY with reds and purples. It’s warned for wind and hail. Looks nasty.

  33. RECORD EVENT REPORT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
    0320 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2021

    …RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT BOSTON MA…

    A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 100 FOR BOSTON MA TODAY JUN 30TH.

    THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 95 SET IN 1945.

  36. Severe Thunderstorm Watch up for all of SE New England except southern Rhode Island and Cape Cod/Islands

  38. 96 degrees the high today here at my Taunton home.
    Last time it was 100 was July 20, 2013.

    The hottest day last summer was 99 on July 28.

    The all-time June maximum in Taunton was 101 on June 10, 2008.

  40. One of the most impressive supercells I’ve ever seen in New England plowing into the Berkshires right now. When I first checked it I saw 71dbz radar echoes at 27,000 ft! That’s High Plains material. NWS Boston with golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts in the warning – possibly conservative on both fronts. Radar algorithms were estimating ~3.3″ diameter hail (bigger than baseballs) but that’s probably overdone (due to the hot low levels) and has come down a bit.

    I’d expect activity to gradually wane as it moves east, but some of these storms will leave a mark (and already have in some areas).

    1. Oh no. Thanks, WxW. I just looked. If it heads due East it will be just north of me. I hope. But will keep an eye

  41. Does anyone have am Estimate in when that cell could reach this area? My son in law is Doing an outside install of a condenser. I’m not sure it he is on a roof but still would not be a good thing

  42. Happy to report the strongest must have gone just south of us.

    Rain, thunder, but nothing for wind or hail.

    Be careful as the western mass stuff heads eastward.

  43. For model watchers…
    18Z NAM and 19Z HRRR not handling the convection very well so don’t bother.
    Just watch the radar and monitor any warnings from NWS.

  44. I have a question above but also wondering which warned cell WxW was referring to. The more southern one or the one over north field right now.

  45. Vicki – the one I was referring to earlier was the southern one. It has weakened some but is still severe. The more northern one actually looks worse now. That one also has some rather strong rotation with it. It’ll be a couple hours before they make their way east though.

    1. I can’t thank you enough. My son in law is not in a safe situation. The southern one looks to be dropping a bit more this way but not far enough. And he is in south Sutton.

      I really cannot thank you enough as I’ve been on pins and needles

  46. Tornado Warning near Orange now, a very good call IMO. These are all supercell storms and are capable of all hazards at this point – wind, hail, isolated tornado. Keep a very close eye on your local warnings this evening.

  47. Just got off the phone with my daughter in London. She’s kind of had it with the weather there. Basically no summer, and not even much of spring this year. A lot of light rain and 15C (~59F), with occasional bursts of sun which make the temperature go up into the 60s. I’ve said this many times, but it’s worth repeating. We don’t know how lucky we are in most of North America to have abundant sunshine and across the Norther tier of states anyway, 4 distinct seasons. In parts of Northwestern Europe sustained periods of sunshine are quite hard to find, ever.

    Two other notes, not weather-related.

    Glenn Ordway is retiring. While not a favorite of mine, I respect what he did during his career. Worked with Johnny Most for years as a Celtics broadcaster, and was quite good at it. Then he changed the face of sports radio forever. I think sports radio has veered in the wrong direction recently, focusing less on sports and more on personalities. But, when Glenn was/is only focused on sports, he can analyze as well as anyone else I know – and do so for all 4 major sports. I wish him well in his future endeavors.

    Then, there’s the passing of Donald Rumsfeld at 88. Rumsfeld was a brilliant man, but quite controversial, acerbic at times, and also a bit too bellicose for many. Yet, I will remember him for his knack with words:

    “Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don’t know we don’t know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones.”

  48. More populated areas of middlesex county lie ahead of these severe storms. In addition to the tornado warned cell, there are a couple other very strong cells too.

  49. Already starting to see some upscale growth with the storms, and a gradual loss of intensity. Still severe, but the tornado threat is definitely diminishing, and the hail threat will drop also as storms congeal. But some risk for damaging winds will make it all the way to the coast, or just about.

    1. I have a high school friend in Gardner. She said it got very dark but once it passed, air is much cooler

  51. RECORD EVENT REPORT
    STORM HQ BROCKTON MA
    0545 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2021

    …ALL TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET…

    AN ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 106 SET TODAY JUN 30TH ON THE STORM HQ MOBILE TEMPERATURE SENSOR WHILE TRAVELING ON INTERSTATE 95 IN LEXINGTON, MA.

    THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 102 SET YESTERDAY ALONG SEVERAL STRETCHES OF INTERSTATE 95 AND US-3 IN MANSSACHUSETTS.

    2. That is the stretch of road that years ago on that extremely hot Patriots day I noticed our car temp skyrocketed for a while. I mentioned on the weather blog and TK said it was the type of road that caused the spike. I mentioned It here recently

      1. Here you go

        Woods Hill Weather
        APRIL 16, 2012 AT 10:57 AM
        Asphalt heat is a likely reason. Your warmest readings came in an area that the asphalt is newer and darker.

        1. That’s an impressive search!!

          LOL funny post SAK, reminds me of the one I made from my work parking lot. 😉

  52. Thunder to my north. Very dark north and east of here also. I don’t see anything close on radar but it is loud.

  53. Sad, but predictable given the extent and duration of the heatwave across the Pacific Northwest: More than 130 people in Vancouver have died. https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1410354718262673423

    Can’t find numbers for Washington State and Seattle, in particular.

    For some reason it takes state and local authorities a long time in the U.S. to systematically report fatalities; much longer than necessary, in my view. The Texas freeze back in February, for example, cost the lives of hundreds of citizens, but the reports trickled in at first. Only in April did we get a final tally.

  55. We got the one that came charging down Rte. 2, and it boiled up really fast. Dark sky, thunder and lightning, and heavy rain for about 10 minutes, and the temp dropped 20 degrees. Yay!

  56. In Sudbury, it got very windy and dark. Clouds moved very fast and there was a big patch of blue sky. We had some thunder and lightning and a brief downpour. Temp. down to 74 degrees now.

    1. Hey hey hey. Soooooooo nice to see your name here. I hope all is ok with you and your husband 🙂

      1. Could be better. Hasn’t been a good year. In any case, sky is really amazing right now. Big cumulus clouds, dark and some very bright w/blue sky.

        I have been looking at WHW off and on. And congrats to TK for keeping up this great blog. And hoping Mrs. OS feels better soon. Vicki, hope you and your family are doing well.

  58. Wall Street Journal is reporting 45 deaths in the Portland, Oregon area in connection with the heatwave.

  61. Same here in Coventry at the baseball field as we finish the game from last night. It has turned dark gray to our north with thunder in the distance from that warned storm over northern Hartford and Tolland Counties. Wind picking up a bit as well but still no rain.

  62. Large cell closing in on my area. Constant thunder, numerous lightning strikes just south of me in Connecticut., could be in for a substantial amount of rain with this cell could be some training with storms coming up from the south merging with line coming in from the west.

  63. Incredible lightning display like I haven’t seen in a long time. Constant Bolts no break in between

  64. Vicki you’ll be in it very shortly. I will take this free forth of July fireworks show any day, it beats waiting in traffic. Plus it’s much louder. This is insane.

    1. It is amazing. We have been in it a while. Small hail, 0.73 in 25 minutes. Lightning and thunder just have not stopped. Quieting a bit now

      Glad you got to enjoy

  69. My sons future father in law is in bucksport, maine. He said they may well go pave had a tornado there

  70. Very impressive wind signature with the storm over Bridgewater right now. Radar indicating widespread 65-80mph gusts are ongoing. I expect we’ll see a lot of downed tree and power outage reports in that vicinity.

      1. 🙂

        Been watching the storms up there to pass some time in advance of my first of several overnight shifts tonight. Pretty solid event overall, I would say as a whole it’s been the most impressive of the year in SNE so far. I hope to chime in more from time to time going forward!

    2. I got the video on RadarScope and sent to my granddaughter who loves weather. We txt through storms.

  71. The 100 at KBOS definitely looks a little high to me today. Though not as high as the 103 at Newark, NJ…

    It was again a very favorable setup for heating at Logan, and today was probably the hottest day on a regional level in at least a few years, but yeah I’d say 98-99 makes more sense for the high at BOS.

    1. There were a few 99s nearby. I have screen captures from the link SAK gave me but then got sidetracked with the storms

      Not sure what we just had here. Thunder but at the end the house shook, rattled and shook again ….and the thunder wasn’t that sharp. Felt more like an earthquake. It was really odd

    2. WxW I can’t find an email for the nws Boston. Tk said he’d been messaging them on FB but they are no longer accepting messages. Do you know where I can find their email address?

      1. You could try their webmaster email (box.webmaster@noaa.gov). I’m not totally sure how they do it there, but at least at my office any weather-related questions sent to the webmaster account get forwarded to the operations staff.

        1. Ahhh thank you. I did find that but thought it would be web sites related. I will do. I’m couch bound for a bit longer so this is my entertainment. Sometimes cage rattling makes a difference

  74. Got crazy dark with that storm passing to our north earlier at my sons game. Low swirling dark clouds, a huge gust of wind, and supercooled air blew across the field and sent everyone scurrying. Fortunately it was an official game by then. Didn’t end up raining at all other than a few drops with that first cell as the bulk of it slid north but that was pretty cool. It was the outflow boundary from the storm even though we were on the periphery of it and didn’t experience the storm itself. It was pretty wild feeling the wind and supercooled air. Fascinated my son.

    The second cluster of storms about an hour later did plaster us here with heavy rain, wind and lightning…of course, right when I was outside grilling. I knew it was coming but we had to eat 🙂

    1. Nice. It is special to have our kids and grandkids enjoy weather with us. My son has always been a fan

      How’d your sons team do?

      1. They won and crushed the other team so they play again Friday. Next team is much tougher though. If they lose they are done…a win means they play again next week.

  75. Chased for 5 hours. Not a great deal of video to show for it, but a few pics and some great visuals that I did not catch on video.

    I was on a hill watching the fireworks in Somerville while a thunderstorm was going through. I think they were nuts to try to have that event tonight. Rain date is tomorrow. They should have postponed. If it rains tomorrow night, they can push it out to next Wed or Thu which they have done in the past.

    1. I was shocked. Atlas had really strict regs if there were lightning. As you know we had a storm that day. I memorized and rememorized the atlas policy

  77. Tropical Depression 5 has formed about 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands. Unlike the 1st 4 storms this season, this one might actually be tropical!

Comments are closed.