18 thoughts on “C-19 Chat Post – July 1 2021”

  1. This is interesting.

    I spoke to a friend for the first time in a while. He is in medical field. One son in law has a client who works in research in this area. Both are absolutely mystified by the lifting of mask mandate. And both were adamant that there should be a remote option in the fall until all children can be vaccinated if they choose to be

    https://imgur.com/a/KdUBhv4

    1. Thanks for sharing, Vicki. I don’t understand it either. Perhaps more troublesome than the lifting of the mandate is that indoor spaces like pharmacies and tiny boutiques with no ventilation have no more mask requirements. Not even a sign saying “masks required if you’re not vaccinated.” As I’ve said many times before I don’t think masks (or distancing) will be protocols beyond, say, the winter of 2021-2022. But, I always expected at least some of these protocols to be in place until then. So long as globally a pandemic is raging in many nations, and simmering here at home, especially in a growing number of states with Delta dominance (and of course people do travel from these states), the precautionary principle should apply.

      Unfortunately, I’ve found that in terms of public health the majority of the public in the U.S. just doesn’t care. Whether it’s the diseases of despair – from the opioid crisis, gun homicides, to mental health and suicides – or (at least somewhat) preventable deaths with better health measures in place – infectious diseases like Covid, HIV, but also infant mortality and traffic fatalities – the U.S. does very poorly compared to peer nations. It’s why our life expectancy is so bad comparatively speaking. We’re the ONLY wealthy industrialized nation to have experienced a drop in life expectancy from 2013 to 2019, so prior to Covid. From 1980 to 2013 our increase in life expectancy was incremental, while every other wealthy industrialized nation saw a steep increase. It’s an indictment of our public health and healthcare systems (and tiered access to those systems), the fact that politicians mostly wring their hands instead of actually doing things to improve public health, reduce mortality and morbidity indices.

      I lived in the Netherlands during the HIV crisis of the 1980s. From the outset the government there took it seriously, ran constant spots on the radio, TV, and on street placards and signs, advertisement kiosks in cities, towns, and on public transportation, saying “HIV will kill you if you don’t practice safe sex.” From 1983 on it was a constant barrage of public health messaging, condoms were handed out in my high school, and we were told of the dangers of this deadly disease. Local authorities went to sex workers, not to arrest them, but to make sure they knew of the steps they needed to take and to provide free check-ups. When I spent my summers in the U.S., even in liberal Massachusetts, I saw practically none of this. If anything it was a taboo subject here, really until the early 90s. No doubt this contributed to the U.S. being one of the poorest, if not poorest, performers when it came to HIV fatalities. The Netherlands was one of the best.

    1. It is a preview of sorts. Glad Eric is paying attention. There is decoupling of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the UK, as I mentioned the other day. But, it’s not as if the latest wave there, which is in full force (today added another 28,000 cases), isn’t causing increases in hospitalizations (up 60% in 3 weeks) or deaths (up 50% in 3 weeks).

      The decoupling has to do with the fact that a much younger group of patients is being impacted by this wave, and by the fact that among the cases are many breakthrough infections, the vast majority of which do not lead to severe illness. All this said, Delta impacts the young in ways the previous variants did not. The numbers of hospitalizations and deaths among the young (55 are very well vaccinated (well over 95%), so we’re not seeing nearly as many severe cases in the older patients.

      1. Thank you. Eric tweets a fair amount re vaccines and covid in general. I also like that he does this

  2. Life expectancy graph (1970 to 2018 – things have only gotten worse since). See tweet below. This should be mandatory material for all high school students in America, as it demonstrates a rather catastrophic failure of the US public health and healthcare systems to improve life expectancy. We sure do spend a lot, but mostly on marginally beneficial services and technologies. https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1208431497146822656/photo/1

      1. I follow Dr. Topol as well. I like his analyses. My only problem is he is a bit too overconfident in vaccines. I think vaccines work very well, but the data from Public Health England shows that they’re quite not as excellent as Topol and many others `want’ them to be. Topol has a habit of citing evidence on vaccine efficacy that is rather obsolete, so, not looking specifically at how vaccines do against the Delta variant.

        Also, one can look at Israel the way Topol is, or one can look at it the way the Israeli government does: Israel is doing very well, but after getting cases down to single digits it is now averaging close to 250 a day (today’s number was actually higher than the 7-day average, so I’m confused by what Topol is saying). Yes, there have been only a handful of hospitalizations reported in recent days and zero deaths. But these are lagging indicators, as Topol knows (but appears to forget each time he analyzes Israeli and UK data). And substantial number of reported cases are breakthrough infections, enough so that Israel has reimposed the mask and distancing rules.

        1. Thank you. Some of that crossed my mind. Not re Israel which is good to know but re overconfidence

          It seems a many believe “I’m fully vaccinated and can get back to life as it was.” I sure understand how horrific this 16+ months has been. We all lived it. And when I got my first vaccine, I felt such great hope. When I got the second, I felt like a kid at Christmas

          The vaccine has been around only a matter of months. We just don’t have any way of knowing for sure. I know it comes from the same hope I suspect we all felt when vaccinated to get back to what we once knew. But I think in good part it comes from our officials…..political, health, etc.

          They spend more time tailoring their advice to what they want the end result to be rather than what is. They constantly send mixed messages. And they really make some plain foolish decisions….such as removing the mask mandate. I will never understand the resistance to masks.

          Sort of related, I keep forgetting to say I am shocked that CVS doesn’t require masks. Irresponsible doesn’t begin to describe. I now have everything mailed to me so have not been in one since this began.

  3. I just registered online for the $1 M vax millions giveaway. It was much easier than I thought. You must be fully vaccinated but, surprisingly, I was not asked any proof of vaccination. I guess that comes if/when I win the lottery?

    VaxMillionsGiveaway.com

    1. You had to give permission for them to check your records to be sure you are vaccinated. You can’t submit without.

      Good luck.

  4. Vicki, I’m very similar to you with respect to vaccines. I am VERY happy I’m fully vaccinated. It feels much better than not being vaccinated. And, I’m not afraid of being out in public. Wasn’t afraid before vaccines, but was certainly more on edge. I just don’t think there’s an on/off switch here.

    This doctor echoes my thinking on the risk of transmission by fully vaccinated people to unvaccinated folks. See tweet below with a graphic. Delta has enhanced this risk. The risk of severe illness or death for the vaccinated is very small. Still, it exists, especially for those with underlying health conditions. And the risk of transmission is actually much greater than CDC cares to admit. https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1409700004705435649

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