BNO News compiles data from Johns Hopkins. Here’s their Thursday “U.S. Covid update” – alas, biggest one-day increase in nearly a month:
– New cases: 18,101
– Average: 13,664 (+544)
– Positivity rate: 2.7% (+0.3)
– In hospital: 15,815 (+349)
– In ICU: 3,921 (+27)
– New deaths: 275
This isn’t alarming yet. But, it’s clearly not trending in the right direction. The Delta variant isn’t `respecting’ seasonality.
Remember what I said about Dr. Topol, who I respect. I think he’s a bit too overconfident in vaccines. To reiterate, vaccines work very well. But they’re not perfect by any stretch of the imagination and they’re encountering stout resistance from Delta, even in highly vaccinated nations.
For some reason Topol was under the impression that case growth had slowed in Israel. That is not the case at all. Also, new cases and hospitalizations (including ICU) have included some fully vaccinated (Pfizer) folks.
This is from the Times of Israel:
New Covid cases up 800% over the last 2 weeks. Serious illness and hospitalizations are rising as well. 6 people hospitalized for Covid overnight, something Israel hasn’t seen in a long time.
I saw that too. And I think I will either stop following him or take what he says with a grain of salt
I respect him a lot. He’s a great scientist. I just think he’s not doing enough `let’s wait and see’ rather than trusting that everything is fine now that the majority of certain populations is vaccinated.
Nuance is important here. Israel and the UK (and US) are NOT going to have another massive surge in hospitalizations and deaths. I am confident of this, and the vaccines are the reason. But, the reason authorities re-instituted certain social distancing protocols in Israel is because they’re concerned about ripples, mini waves, and unnecessary hospitalizations and deaths. The precautionary principle applies.
If the U.S. is well under 100 deaths/day then we’re in typical flu territory, if you will, and I think it’s prudent to then say we’ve conquered the virus. Yet, we’re not. Not even close.
I heard on the news this morning that the Dominican Republic is now offering booster shots (#3) in response to the Delta variant.
Maybe it’s just me, but hasn’t Dr. Fauci been awfully quiet lately? I haven’t seen any tv interviews or updates with him in awhile.
Case in point re: Topol. Today’s new cases in the UK are above 27,000, but slightly below yesterday’s tally. Right away, Topol seizes on this to talk about this as if it’s a good thing. He went on to say hospitalizations only increased 16%. Topol is better than that. As a scientist he knows that one should NOT focus on day to day changes, but rather the 3-day or 7-day average. And that is doubling every 9 days in Britain! Moreover, hospitalizations are increasing by 25%, not 16%. Sure, there’s been some decoupling – which is good – but this wave isn’t pretty. It’s landing many people in the hospital, and killing some. And most of the deaths are in the under 60 population. https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1410978218765688835
Nuance. Nuance. Nuance. On both sides of the Covid-19 debate there’s been a striking lack of nuance. We’re deluding ourselves if we think that the explosive growth in cases in the UK is meaningless, or simply a “casedemic.” I fear that Topol does a bit of ostrich behavior, as well as Gottlieb and others, because they want all to go well in highly vaccinated countries. No doubt, vaccines work. And because of that there has been SOME decoupling of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. But make no mistake, hospitalizations are rising across England (very latest figure is 30% in 1 week – ~30% of whom are partially or fully vaccinated with AZ or Pfizer), and it’s chiefly among the 18-64 age group. This thread is very helpful, and has been ignored by the CDC, NYT, Topol, Gottlieb, and others. https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1410984598562037762
We’re not children. We can handle the truth, which is always nuanced. We don’t live in a black and white world. My message would be: “Being fully vaccinated is great, it offers very good protection against severe disease, but it is not foolproof, particularly not against contracting and then transmitting the virus. Until we have a much lower caseload and more people vaccinated, please be cautious, especially in public indoor settings.”
C-19 / 7-3 / ready.
Comments are closed.
Your no-hype southeastern New England weather blog!
BNO News compiles data from Johns Hopkins. Here’s their Thursday “U.S. Covid update” – alas, biggest one-day increase in nearly a month:
– New cases: 18,101
– Average: 13,664 (+544)
– Positivity rate: 2.7% (+0.3)
– In hospital: 15,815 (+349)
– In ICU: 3,921 (+27)
– New deaths: 275
This isn’t alarming yet. But, it’s clearly not trending in the right direction. The Delta variant isn’t `respecting’ seasonality.
Remember what I said about Dr. Topol, who I respect. I think he’s a bit too overconfident in vaccines. To reiterate, vaccines work very well. But they’re not perfect by any stretch of the imagination and they’re encountering stout resistance from Delta, even in highly vaccinated nations.
For some reason Topol was under the impression that case growth had slowed in Israel. That is not the case at all. Also, new cases and hospitalizations (including ICU) have included some fully vaccinated (Pfizer) folks.
This is from the Times of Israel:
New Covid cases up 800% over the last 2 weeks. Serious illness and hospitalizations are rising as well. 6 people hospitalized for Covid overnight, something Israel hasn’t seen in a long time.
I saw that too. And I think I will either stop following him or take what he says with a grain of salt
I respect him a lot. He’s a great scientist. I just think he’s not doing enough `let’s wait and see’ rather than trusting that everything is fine now that the majority of certain populations is vaccinated.
Nuance is important here. Israel and the UK (and US) are NOT going to have another massive surge in hospitalizations and deaths. I am confident of this, and the vaccines are the reason. But, the reason authorities re-instituted certain social distancing protocols in Israel is because they’re concerned about ripples, mini waves, and unnecessary hospitalizations and deaths. The precautionary principle applies.
If the U.S. is well under 100 deaths/day then we’re in typical flu territory, if you will, and I think it’s prudent to then say we’ve conquered the virus. Yet, we’re not. Not even close.
I heard on the news this morning that the Dominican Republic is now offering booster shots (#3) in response to the Delta variant.
Maybe it’s just me, but hasn’t Dr. Fauci been awfully quiet lately? I haven’t seen any tv interviews or updates with him in awhile.
Case in point re: Topol. Today’s new cases in the UK are above 27,000, but slightly below yesterday’s tally. Right away, Topol seizes on this to talk about this as if it’s a good thing. He went on to say hospitalizations only increased 16%. Topol is better than that. As a scientist he knows that one should NOT focus on day to day changes, but rather the 3-day or 7-day average. And that is doubling every 9 days in Britain! Moreover, hospitalizations are increasing by 25%, not 16%. Sure, there’s been some decoupling – which is good – but this wave isn’t pretty. It’s landing many people in the hospital, and killing some. And most of the deaths are in the under 60 population.
https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1410978218765688835
Nuance. Nuance. Nuance. On both sides of the Covid-19 debate there’s been a striking lack of nuance. We’re deluding ourselves if we think that the explosive growth in cases in the UK is meaningless, or simply a “casedemic.” I fear that Topol does a bit of ostrich behavior, as well as Gottlieb and others, because they want all to go well in highly vaccinated countries. No doubt, vaccines work. And because of that there has been SOME decoupling of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. But make no mistake, hospitalizations are rising across England (very latest figure is 30% in 1 week – ~30% of whom are partially or fully vaccinated with AZ or Pfizer), and it’s chiefly among the 18-64 age group. This thread is very helpful, and has been ignored by the CDC, NYT, Topol, Gottlieb, and others. https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1410984598562037762
We’re not children. We can handle the truth, which is always nuanced. We don’t live in a black and white world. My message would be: “Being fully vaccinated is great, it offers very good protection against severe disease, but it is not foolproof, particularly not against contracting and then transmitting the virus. Until we have a much lower caseload and more people vaccinated, please be cautious, especially in public indoor settings.”
C-19 / 7-3 / ready.