Saturday July 3 2021 Forecast (8:51AM)

114 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 3-7)

I’d like to be writing a short blog update on this Saturday morning of a summer holiday weekend, but with temperatures in the upper 50s to near 60, a chilly wind off the Atlantic, a low overcast, drizzle, fog, and showers around, maybe you need some extra reading material, so let’s stretch this one out a bit. 😉 If you happen to be reading from outside of this area, I hope you are enjoying much nicer weather than we are currently experiencing. After a solid heat spell earlier in the week, we’ve fallen back to levels very reminiscent of Memorial Day Weekend, chilly, raw, damp. At least in late May one can justify that type of weather, being springtime and much earlier in the “warm season”, without chilly ocean nearby and weather set-ups that can still often propel winds more sharply off the water, not the more gentle sea breezes that we more often see as we move into the early weeks of summer. But this time, the synoptics conspired in such a way to show us a little more of an extreme case, and for the second straight time it’s falling on a holiday weekend. That, I assure you, is pure coincidence. The atmosphere has no idea what we are celebrating and observing. It’s just doing what it does. All we can do is make the most of that, so I hope you find a way to do that if you had outdoor plans that have to be changed. The peak of our “bad” weather comes today when we have the strongest northeasterly air flow at the surface, and maximum amount of both low level moisture and moisture above us and upper level low pressure moving right over the region. This combination socks us in with thick cloudiness, with low undefined bases and sometimes fog as the air is pretty fully saturated. Drizzle is common and sometimes persistent, and the upper level low will help generate showers, a few of which can be on the heavier side. As of 8 a.m. today these already exist across the central MA and a good portion of southern NH, but can occur pretty much anywhere during today and into tonight as well. We’ll see a gradual, and I mean very slow improvement of the weather during Sunday. The overcast will start to thin at times, and you may see the sun trying to poke through. The drizzle will taper off, the fog will be more patchy, and while we still have the chance of showers as the upper low continues its lazy journey across New England. At least any shower activity will be diminishing and the last of it should exit by early Sunday evening. Full improvement finally comes during the overnight hours, leaving Monday, the observed holiday for some, as the nicest day we’ve had in a while with a good deal of sunshine, fairly dry air, and a nice temperature recovery. Unfortunately, many folks will have planned this as a travel day. Well, at least the roads will be dry! And now for the part where we add insult to injury. A warm front comes through the region Monday night with some cloudiness and perhaps a passing shower or thunderstorm, then we’re back into the heat for Tuesday, which returns after the warm front passes and ahead of an approaching cold front. This front may be fast enough to bring a shower and thunderstorm threat by late Tuesday or Tuesday night, but the early indications are that it will slow down and not really get all the way through the region, leaving us warm and somewhat humid and vulnerable to additional unsettled weather on Wednesday. Details will have to be fine-tuned for how that plays out…

TODAY: Overcast. Areas of fog and drizzle. Scattered to numerous showers. Highs 58-65. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH, strongest in coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Numerous showers evening becoming scattered overnight. Lows 56-63. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to isolated showers. Highs 65-72. Dew point upper to middle 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Isolated showers possible evening. Lows 55-62. Dew point lower 50s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible overnight, favoring southern NH. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of late-day or evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs 85-92. Dew point rising to upper 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 8-12)

The frontal boundary bringing unsettled weather chances from late Tuesday through Wednesday will still be in the region to start this period, and we’ll also have to watch the remnants of a tropical system from the south that may increase rainfall chances as well, but this should move quickly enough and high pressure should start to advance in from Canada so that we start to dry out by July 9 and set up at least a nice start to the July 10-11 weekend, which may turn unsettled before it ends from an advancing warm front and low pressure area, bringing additional shower and thunderstorm chances for the end of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 13-17)

The pattern will be one of air mass changes and a couple opportunities for showers and storms again, but it’s impossible for specific timing this far out.

114 thoughts on “Saturday July 3 2021 Forecast (8:51AM)”

  1. Thanks TK
    Another holiday weekend this year that will feature record cold low high maximums? If you are not a fan of heat you are hoping yesterday’s CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook happens with below normal temps in the 6-10 day outlook and normal temps in the 8-14 day outlook. I know it is early but this July looks to be different than July 2020 when BDL had 20 days 90 or higher and the hottest month on record.

    1. Thanks Jimmy. I had no idea that last July was that noticeably hot. The year 2020 overall was just so forgettable AFAIC!

  3. Thanks TK.

    TK – Wanna bet that there will be a trifecta of chilly, miserable temps for Labor Day weekend as well? Mother Nature might as well go for it. 😉

    2. No.
      That’s when we were going to break our New England hurricane drought….. Lock it in.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Putrid weather for a Holiday weekend. That’s New England for you.

    On good thing, the ground is now wet, so I should be able to pick up some night crawlers tonight to go fishing tomorrow AM. I am presuming it will generally be dry enough. I don’t mind a shower here and there or a touch of dirzzle. I just won’t fish in a miserable steady rain. I’ve done that before and it is no fun.

  6. Thank you, TK.

    A rather continuously cool and damp July 4th weekend is unusual, but does happen.

    What’s remarkable is that in the span of 4 days we may have 3 records broken: 2 for consecutive days of record-breaking heat, and then 1 (today) for a possible record cold low maximum temperature (was 61F in Boston; let’s see if that can be broken). To add to this oscillating craziness we’ve got a Tuesday on tap which could easily top 90F, though I don’t think a record will be broken. Of course, who knows at this point. Temperatures can soar with a southwesterly and lots of sun.

  7. 6 days ago I held out hope for today being a salvageable transition day, after a rainy later Thursday and Friday. As you can see the the upper trough and lower level moisture are conspiring against us and a drying NW flow won’t make it here to make our Saturday a day of improvement.

    Sunday will be a bit more like what I thought Saturday would be, particularly in western areas, however the additional sun and heating, could lead to instability showers in those areas that do see greater improvement.

    As the observed holiday is on Monday, many people will be able to end the holiday weekend with a warmer, drier day, with tolerable levels of humidity. Tuesday will be a summer day and with so many people taking time off the week of July 4th, hopefully it will take the sting out of such a poor weather start to the holiday weekend.

    Remember in Mid June all those posted mid – long term model outlooks and CPC outputs prognosticating no significant heat probably into July? Well, the end of June turned out pretty hot, wouldn’t you say? Also the 6-14 day outlets are always going to trend cool when there are days that have much below average temperatures in sequence. Bottom line a really poor and divergent suite of model data and anomalous climate set ups, have made most of us struggle with extended outlooks going back to February.

    Speaking of temperature, I have not weighed in on this too much, but it is very obvious that Logan is not even close. We can argue about the reluctance to correct the sensor or the motivations to not correct the temperature gauge, but when Boston is running 2-3 degrees warmer than Norwood, Bedford, Chicopee, and Windsor Locks on a regular basis, let’s at least have an honest conversation, that it is clearly wrong, especially when we are using at the bellwether indicator of regional climate information and trends.

    Named storms – yes, storms are of course being named that were never being named before. Beware of the insurance industry, and how their exposures change (to their benefit) when a storm is named. Greater deductibles kick in on most policies when a storm is named and there are backstops to potential substantial losses for carriers when a storm is named. For all the named storms, a better US indicator can be the number storms that make landfall at hurricane strength.

    Poor weather = more time for me to ramble….

    1. Always love to see you chime in with a ramble.

      And I can’t ramble back, at least in a disagreement sense, because I agree with all of it. 🙂

  8. For any Sci-Fi buffs out there, Amazon Prime’s new movie,
    The Tomorrow War, isn’t bad at all. I really enjoyed it.

  9. Going biking with a friend tomorrow no matter what. A few showers and drizzle won’t `dampen’ the spirit.

    On the bright side, in just a few months we’ve managed to reduce the precipitation deficit to zero. We’re now in surplus territory. This will be good for: a. Preventing wildfires; b. Foliage.

  10. Just curious how much rain is expected over the next day in metro west. It may be cold and dreary now but at least I can get outside for dog walks etc. Can’t wait until the second half of the weekend.

    1. Probably not all that much, in terms of measurable amount. Most of it will be taking place during the next 15 hours.

    1. If I was up there right now I’d be loving it, just because it is that way. And because I was standing atop New England. 🙂

      1. I was planning to climb it this past Thursday, but visibility was miserable and I did not think I was going to be able to see the cairns so I opted to climb Mt Pierce.

    2. Thx. The second link was an informative post, echoing many of the comments posted here that new technology is allowing more low-impact storms to be identified and named. The article specifically mentioned risks to mariners and coastal residents, so as TK mentioned earlier > insurance issues.

      Also, thanks for today’s discussion TK.

      1. Agree. I read the article early today as SAK had posted it on yesterday’s blog. I mentioned something similar to WxW a few days ago and go TK in messenger. It seems a given that we are seeing more because of technology and what was the norm will change

        I’m reading some more articles from Chris Landsea…. interesting name. Some curious dynamics going on there

  15. Wonder if the sensor issue at Logan will prevent a record cold high temp ?

    The record is 61F. I think they’ve hit 60F so far.

    1. It could. I just wish they’d fix it so we can move on from it. And they need a program where all sensors are routinely checked and calibrated if necessary. I don’t think that’s too much for any of us to ask of our government. 🙂

      2. I wrote to six Mets. I chose from have heard back from five so wrote to one more from the same network as the missing met. I have yet to hear back from that individual. I wonder if the network screens emails. I wrote to the nws also and have not heard back.

        I figure I’ll wait till Tuesday since many are on vacation and then summarize what the folks have said and share here

        As far as today, Logan’s temps are right in line with others. It has been for a few days and once or twice was lower.

        1. I wonder if it has to do with sunshine, not unlike
          our home sensors. It’s been totally cloudy so the sensor
          is reading correctly? I dunno, just a thought.

          1. I wondered that myself but then some of their worst readings have come during night time. So that kind of takes away from the sunlight theory unless it’s indirectly related to that as in heated asphalt.

  16. I’m a little concerned about some potent warm front t-storms in NNE Monday night. I don’t think they’ll get down into SNE but these things have been known to dip further south than modeled so something to watch.

    We may also find ourselves with a low coverage but high potency storm issue on Tuesday afternoon / evening.

  18. There have been some CGs with that RI stuff, creeping into MA but the lightning activity, for now, has dropped off. If you’re down in southern MA just know you may hear rumbles, or more than rumbles, for the next couple hours.

    1. I’m down in Newport (enjoying an Awful Awful at Newport Creamery at the moment), and it’s been pouring for a while, but no lightning yet.

      1. I Love Awful Awfuis! haven’t had one in a long time!
        At least you can enjoy that even though the weather sucks!

  19. Call me old school but I kind of miss the

    ALL CAPS WEATHER DISCUSSIONS AND STATEMENTS FROM NWS

    Haha!!

    There was just something kind of cool about them.

      1. I was just thinking about him and his epic discussions…

        Loved it when I hadn’t seen him for several years and he comes to a weather conference, sees me in the stairway and says “Oh hey Brian, how have you been!?” Didn’t expect him to remember me by name. Nice guy.

    1. My lightening app is still showing lightening strikes all over SE MA.
      Closest one to the city is holbrook.

      2. Great. That means one of my cats is cowering under the bed. (I live less than 1/4 mile from the Holbrook town line).

  21. Upper lows are fascinating.
    It’s not like we had any solar heating and destabilization. This is all just happening upstairs in the atmosphere. Not the same set-up but it reminds me of the potent t-storms we had in March 2020 when my house (antenna) was struck by a CG that originated from clouds whose bases were considerably higher than a typical t-storm. The storm was treating the top of the cold air at the ground like it WAS the ground. Plus an atmospheric inversion made that storm produce some of the loudest thunder I’ve ever heard.

        1. Tom it’s all good . We did a quick construction Debris pickup this morning that was done by 11 & since that point I’m in chill mode & off to Tuesday . I have been going 7 days a week , crazy hours at the hospital & side work has been going since March steadily. As much as I was looking forward to sitting outside enjoying my flowers , flag & a roaring fire in the pit I’m able to finally relax . I have a pond in my neighborhood & Joe & I hopefully can walk down to watch the local ponds have a firework shootout tomorrow night

  26. That’s another boatload of rain, especially in Southeastern Massachusetts. When all is said and done we’ll have had our July average rain total and then some by later this evening, if not sooner in some places.

  27. Thunder has begun in Back Bay. To say the atmosphere is unstable in the past 3 days is an understatement.

  28. Thunder and lightening here in JP.

    56 degrees!

    .38 inch today, most of that in the last few minutes, 🙂

    Current rate: .7 inch per hour.

  30. We are missing this which is good. Not sure we can hold more. We have had 4.76 for a 5 day total

  32. The thunder/lightning literally shook my house. Scared the heck out of me. Came out of nowhere. Good thing I didn’t have my TV on.

    K-BOOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    It wasn’t anywhere nearly as loud on that blistering 100F day, and yet on the record chill day (60F), the world comes to a crashing end! :-O

  33. Vicki, you’re a bit too far west for this deluge.

    Philip, the thunder made my cat jump in the air.

    It’s quite dark outside, 55F, and pouring. Time for a a fire in the old fireplace. Well, if I had an operational one I might. Just think, we’re 3 days removed from a sweltering 100F day.

    1. I am too far west. I watched it approach. While I would not have minded lightning, our garden is saturated

    2. When I got home from work, I turned the heat on. Call me nuts but the house feels mighty good.

      This will make back-to-back holiday weekends I’ve done this. Will Labor Day complete the trifecta?

      Our climate makes no sense anymore.

  35. high temp 59 here. .91 inch on the day so far. looks like another 2-3 hours of rain hope it is less.

  36. If this were a winter weather event it could be one of those 15 to 20-in Boston snow falls while Worcester gets a coating. 😀

    1. I’m jealous. We had one a few nights ago that felt as if it came from ground up. I have never felt anything like it and actually checked to see if we’d had an earthquake

  38. For some very cool days in mid July, we don’t have to go back far in time – July 13th and 14th, 2017. Overcast, fog, and light rain with temps in Boston hovering around 61F during the day.

    I do believe today is not only record-breaking for July 3rd (my thermometer never made it above 58F and has been 55F most of the day) but it’s about as cool as it gets in July. Does anyone know of a day that was stuck in the 50s in July in Boston?

    1. Boston’s record low max for July is 60, which has happened 9 times:

      7/18/1873
      7/5/1882
      7/13/1898
      7/20/1902
      7/2/1914
      7/2/1915
      7/1/1921
      7/6/1956
      7/4/1978

  39. At BDL in Windsor Locks CT where weather records are kept for inland CT it was 62 degrees today which ties for the third coldest July day on record. On Christmas Day last year it was 63 degrees. No record low high maximum at BDL today.

  41. Your welcome Vicki. I don’t know what the coldest ever high temp is for Boston during the month of July but at BDL it is 60 degrees back on July 6, 1954 according a tweet from Ryan Hanrahan.

  42. This rain does NOT look like it wants to quit!! Up to 1.25 inch on the day and still coming.

    Doesn’t look like I get any night crawlers tonight. As much as I want them, I am NOT getting soaked to get them.

  43. Thomas Jefferson ….

    On July 2, the day of the vote, he noted it was 78 degrees at 6 a.m. and still at 9:40 a.m. By the time Tom got back to his lodgings (one supposes) at 9 p.m., it was 74 degrees.

  44. Vicki it was drizzling at times where I was but I missed out on the rains eastern MA is getting today.

  45. Thanks, TK:

    Closing in on 3″ (2.96″) in the last 48ish hours.

    At least we’re 10 degrees warmer on the Independence Day weekend than we were on the Memorial Day weekend! 🙂

    Plenty of lawn mushrooms to garnish the Fourth of July steaks! 🙂

    Like most, tomorrow will the first time since Christmas, 2019 that we’ve be able to get most of the family together. I hope y’all enjoy family and friends tomorrow and Monday!

    Here’s a beautiful and an amazing version of “The Stars and Stripes Forever” by Berklee College of Music professor, Guy Van Duser:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u3eBmcwl9h8

    Happy Fourth of July, everyone!

  46. Will the rain diminish at some point soon? I have a major flooding situation. Water is right up to the door leading to the courtyard, where there’s at least 4 inches of water (same in the trash area). Once it gets over the threshold the water will enter 3 units in the building, including mine.

      1. Our drains have been cleaned several times (twice in the past year), but the city drains and also a private street’s drains nearby have not. So, since 2019 heavy rains have caused flooding at our building, but also quite a number on the street I live on. I’ve repeatedly told the city to clean the drains, and was also in touch with the association that takes care of services for the private street. Alas, they haven’t gotten to it yet. I’ve been asking for months. I’m anxious now, because the rain just isn’t letting up.

    2. Awww geez. That stinks. It may be pulling away. But then I’ll wait for someone else to validate that. Meanwhile, I’ll hope I’m right

  47. Looking at the radar it’s extremely slow moving. Just spinning for the most part with heavy bands of rain on top of where I am – even heavier just to the east (my guess is the harbor islands are getting absolutely hammered). Oh, how I wish this was a winter storm. Alas, it’s a rain storm and we’ve got big flooding problems now.

      1. Indeed. It’s let up a bit, but still raining pretty hard. I really hope it stops soon. Water is now splashing over the door threshold. Not quite into the hallway, but just about. It’s got to be 5 inches deep in the courtyard. Door is not at the courtyard level. It’s about 6 inches up from the courtyard level. So I have an inch or less to spare. I noticed on my walk this afternoon that side streets were flooded. That’s been a regular occurrence for two years after heavy rains.

        I don’t normally complain about forecasts, because it’s not anyone’s fault. But, I saw last night on two weather stations time lapses of the rain today; both of which ended with Boston receiving 0.3 inch. So much for that prediction. Good lord.

  48. One has to wonder if the new record should actually be 57 or 58F.

    What do you think about that TK?

    1. 58. The reading is still incorrect. They should have been one of the cooler spots today based on the weather and their location.

  50. To answer the question earlier about why this wouldn’t be 4 feet of snow from 5″ of rain. The warmer the air is, the more moisture it can hold. This is called the mixing ratio.

    At 90 degrees, 1 kg of air can hold approximately 30g of water vapor.
    At 70 degrees, that number drops to 15 g of water vapor.
    At 50 degrees, you’re down to about 7.5 g of water vapor.
    At 32 degrees, you’re down to about 3.7 g of water vapor.
    At 0 degrees, you’re down to about 0.9 g of water vapor.

    So, a storm like this would literally have about 1/3 the amount of moisture in winter compared to now. So, take the 5″ or so that has fallen, and that reduces to about 1.50-1.75″ or so in the winter, thus TK’s estimate of 15-20″ is right in the ballpark.

    The NWS has a calculator here: https://www.weather.gov/epz/wxcalc_mixingratio

    Using my current temp and pressure, the current mixing ratio is 9.68 g/kg

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