Sunday July 4 2021 Forecast (8:32AM)

66 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 4-8)

Happy Independence Day!

You need no reminder that it hasn’t felt like early July around here for a couple days now, and today won’t either, but we’ll also start to see improvement in the weather as a slow transition back toward weather more fitting for the season takes place. Upper level low pressure is moving very slowly away, but still has enough influence on the region for a lot of clouds, eventual limited sun, and still some shower opportunities today. Drying accelerates a little tonight making pretty much all scheduled fireworks displays possible. Monday, we warm up a bit more with a small bubble of high pressure extends from the Mid Atlantic to just south of New England. But a warm front will be approaching later Monday when there will be an increase in cloudiness, and from west to east Monday night a round of showers and potential thunderstorms will visit the region on the leading edge of this warmer and more humid air, which will result in Tuesday being a fairly hot and humid day. A cold front will be moving into the region from the north northwest as low pressure passes north of the region, and this brings with it the chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday. The front won’t really push fully through the region and another front will approach from the northwest Wednesday, keeping the chance of showers and storms in the forecast. And the unsettled stretch will likely continue Thursday as that front also fails to fully push through and a disturbance comes along, along with some moisture associated with the remains of Elsa. This could enhance rainfall potential during Thursday for our area.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to isolated showers. Highs 65-72. Dew point upper to middle 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Isolated showers possible evening. Lows 55-62. Dew point lower 50s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible overnight, favoring southern NH. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs 85-92. Dew point rising to upper 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 70-77. Dew point 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 9-13)

Frontal boundary sits just to the south and slowly pulls away with a slow drying process July 9, temperatures below normal. High pressure moves in with fair and warmer weather July 10. The next disturbance returns shower chances and higher humidity then may hang around to continue another unsettled stretch in the July 11-13 time frame.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 14-18)

No big pattern changes. Should dry out then see another stretch of unsettled weather following that. Temperatures somewhat variable during mid month.

66 thoughts on “Sunday July 4 2021 Forecast (8:32AM)”

  1. This is info that SAK posted on yesterday’s blog and I will re-post here. It’s extremely important in helping to clarify why this heavy rain event would not have been 4 feet of snow in the winter. Please read, and share this with anybody who would benefit from it. This is meteorology and one of the reasons I created this blog…

    ________________________________________________________________

    “To answer the question earlier about why this wouldn’t be 4 feet of snow from 5″ of rain. The warmer the air is, the more moisture it can hold. This is called the mixing ratio.

    At 90 degrees, 1 kg of air can hold approximately 30g of water vapor.
    At 70 degrees, that number drops to 15 g of water vapor.
    At 50 degrees, you’re down to about 7.5 g of water vapor.
    At 32 degrees, you’re down to about 3.7 g of water vapor.
    At 0 degrees, you’re down to about 0.9 g of water vapor.

    So, a storm like this would literally have about 1/3 the amount of moisture in winter compared to now. So, take the 5″ or so that has fallen, and that reduces to about 1.50-1.75″ or so in the winter, thus TK’s estimate of 15-20″ is right in the ballpark.

    The NWS has a calculator here: https://www.weather.gov/epz/wxcalc_mixingratio

    Using my current temp and pressure, the current mixing ratio is 9.68 g/kg”

    1. Great information. I’ll share with granddaughter who was asking

      However, my question was not whether 15-20 was correct. I never doubted that. My question was asking if Worcester would still have a coating with nearly 5 inches of rain….now 5.22 as of this am.

      1. Got it. 🙂
        My reference to the coating for Worcester vs. 15-20 inches for Boston at the time was just based on the radar set-up from late yesterday when we had the swath of heavy precipitation over eastern MA and Worcester was too far west to be in it. 🙂

        1. Thanks. I couldn’t find where anyone asked why not four feet of snow. If Boston got five inches last night, it sure did surpass in a few hours what we have in South Sutton for the entire event. No wonder Joshua was flooding.

  2. Thanks TK. Another 1.03 yesterday! Joshua hope things are better with your flooding this morning.

  5. Thanks TK
    Big difference from this time last year when we couldn’t buy a drop of rain. It also right now does not look like a repeat of July 2020 where it was the hottest month on record for BDL and most 90 degree days or higher with 20.

  9. Thanks, TK!!!!

    Happy Fourth of July, everyone!

    Joshua, how did you make out last night?
    Hope the waters stopped short of your home!

  11. We had the hottest June on record I believe making folks think maybe a hot summer lined up . I bet it’s the opposite with more rain opportunities, of course it’s just a hunch .

  14. Just to add a bit to my mixing ratio post.

    There are technically two mixing ratios:

    1. The Saturation Mixing Ratio, which is based on the temperature, and calculates the maximum amount of water vapor that the air can hold.
    2. The Actual Mixing ratio, which is based on the dewpoint, and calculates the actual amount of water vapor currently in the air.

    When you divide the Actual Mixing Ratio by the Saturation Mixing Ratio, you get a fraction. If you change that fraction to a percentage, you get…..Relative Humidity. That’s right, RH only tells you what percentage of the possible water vapor the air can currently hold, which is why it’s “relative”. If tells you nothing about how humid it actually is.

  15. Thanks, TK, and Happy 4th to all.

    I’ll take this weather over the sweltering version of July 3-4 any time! But easy for me to say, because we don’t have flooding trouble. Joshua, how are you doing?
    Can you imagine what it would be like on the Esplanade today if there were 200,000 or so people there? Mud fest…

    1. Happy Fourth, Jean.

      Agree and ewwwwww for what esplanade would be like

      I tried opening windows a bit yesterday and today just to air house. But it just felt wet. I have run the AC all weekend just to dry the house out

  17. Pretty much off and on rain the entire morning, and just started raining again here in Amesbury on the mighty Merrimack. Enough. Please go away. Please.

  18. Happy 4th all.

    Was able to make it fishing this morning as it was dry. Only showered lightly and briefly about 10 AM.

    I went out for night crawlers last night and got one and missed one. That was it. I think perhaps there was too much rain.

    Some photos while fishing:

    https://ibb.co/pXYMXQb

    https://ibb.co/Bz5xdwt

    Joshua might recognize where the swans are.

    Caught 12 fish, none particularly big. 🙂 But it was nice and peaceful.

    1. This is awesome. So glad you were able to find some fishing weather. I was going to guess South Natick but your mention of Joshua makes me think I’m wrong

      1. Thank you. The dam is South Natick, not far from Lookout farm.

        The swans are in Needham, not far from where Joshua once lived. A little pond on Willow street that empties into the Charles River.

  19. file:///C:/Users/Harvey/Documents/Houston%2010%20day%20forecast.pdf

    My daughter sent this to me Friday. We always say if you don’t like the weather in New England, wait a minute.
    In the Houston case it would be if you don’t like it…..TOO BAD!!!!
    She went to Rice Univ. way back when and fell in love with that area….go figure.

    Also, 365 thank yous to TK. I don’t post often and don’t thank him enough for what he does.
    It occurred to me this morning that he never takes a day off.
    Weekends, holidays, rain, sleet, snow, pestilence, there he is.
    And he doesn’t get paid for this. A very special guy and I am not sure that we have realized the no day off thing.

    Have a great holiday, all!

  20. 10 Day Weather-Houston, TX
    As of 1:03 pm CDT
    Today
    87°
    /76°
    Thunderstorms
    64%
    ESE 7 mph
    Sun 04 | Day
    87°
    64%
    ESE 7 mph
    Thunderstorms likely. High 87F. Winds ESE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

    Humidity
    71%
    UV Index
    9 of 10
    Sunrise
    6:26 am
    Sunset
    8:26 pm
    Sun 04 | Night
    76°
    19%
    ESE 7 mph
    Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. Low 76F. Winds ESE at 5 to 10 mph.

    Humidity
    85%
    UV Index
    0 of 10
    Moonrise
    2:35 am
    Waning Crescent
    Moonset
    3:59 pm
    Mon 05
    89°
    /77°
    Thunderstorms
    69%
    ESE 8 mph
    Tue 06
    86°
    /77°
    Scattered Thunderstorms
    58%
    SE 10 mph
    Wed 07
    86°
    /77°
    Scattered Thunderstorms
    58%
    SE 9 mph
    Thu 08
    85°
    /79°
    Scattered Thunderstorms
    58%
    SE 10 mph
    Fri 09
    88°
    /79°
    Scattered Thunderstorms
    35%
    SSE 11 mph
    Sat 10
    89°
    /77°
    Mostly Cloudy
    24%
    SSE 9 mph
    Sun 11
    90°
    /76°
    PM Thunderstorms
    37%
    S 8 mph
    Mon 12
    90°
    /75°
    Scattered Thunderstorms
    35%
    S 9 mph
    Tue 13
    88°
    /77°
    AM Thunderstorms
    36%
    ESE 10 mph
    Wed 14
    89°
    /78°
    Isolated Thunderstorms
    33%
    SSE 10 mph
    Thu 15
    90°
    /78°
    Partly Cloudy
    24%
    SSE 11 mph
    Fri 16
    90°
    /77°
    Partly Cloudy
    21%
    SE 11 mph
    Sat 17
    90°
    /78°
    Partly Cloudy
    24%
    SE 11 mph
    Sun 18
    89°
    /78°
    Isolated Thunderstorms
    31%
    SE 10 mph
    Top Stories

    oops…i am not doing this well. Anyways, you get the idea.

  22. Thanks TK.

    All in all this weekend could have been much worse here. Ended up getting a 5 mile/3 hour hike in yesterday afternoon in Barkhamsted (NW CT) and didn’t get rained on a drop. Passed a nice waterfall and two viewpoints and nothing was socked in. We headed up that way based on radar trends and it was the right move as the center of the upper low was passing overhead and most of the shower activity was circulating around it (south to north in eastern MA and north to south in eastern NY).

    Today has turned out to be a great day here. In and out of the sun with no rain and temps into the low 70’s. Will take this weekend over what we had over Memorial Day anytime!

    2. That’s where my wife is from and we are heading there tomorrow for the 4th of July parade!

      1. Nice, enjoy it North!

        We did the Falls Cutoff and Jessie Gerard trails in the Peoples State Forest. Nice hike and nice views of the Farmington River Valley if you have never done it.

  23. Better later then not at all . Fire on patio going & picking up cooked lobsters at 4:30 & grilling sirloin tips in marinade since yesterday .

  24. Some hints of another potential heat wave showing up toward the middle of the month…

    In the more here and now, the instability showers popped a little further east than I expected them to be today. Most of them are occurring in southern New Hampshire and eastern Massachusetts. I did expect these to be a little further west over the hilly terrain. Either way, they should be moving out this evening as the upper low continues It’s very slow pull away to the east.

    Not feeling any more bullish about the thunderstorm threat for Monday night’s warm front but still think we need to keep a close eye on it.

    Still working on the details of the thunderstorm threats for Tuesday through Thursday and the potential for enhanced rainfall later in that period. I won’t be looking at too much weather from late this afternoon until late this evening as I will be spending some time in the city of Boston…

    2. Not liking the idea of a heat wave for the middle of the month…”potential” or otherwise. 🙁

  25. Elsa looks like a few thunder storm clusters no big deal. Let’s see what happens when it gets off the west coast of Florida . Will it turn into A hurricane Charley? I doubt it. Doesn’t look favorable,lopsided storm. Just a guess on my part. I was supposed be heading to Sarasota at this time I canceled to the seventeenth hopefully no threats then.

  26. I would be curious as to what the record low-high temp is for Boston on the 4th. I bet we are close.

    2. I mentioned 7-4-78 earlier. Boston was in the 50s all day (briefly 60 as noted above).

    1. There will be some showers in Boston for ours but don’t care. Bring it on! 😉

  28. Thank you, TK.

    Baled lots of water last night; >30 gallons. Did the trick. The rest was mother nature finally drying out. Someone in the building said “it’s low tide, we can walk through the courtyard.” Little did she know how anxious I was when it was “high tide.” Exhausted from the baling.

    Happy 4th everyone!

      1. All is well that ends well. No damage to the interior of the building. The water never made it in. The baling I did was out in the courtyard, trash area, and outdoor corridor.

  30. Raining in Boston. What else is new? Looking at the radar it appears that more rain is on the way. Not a lot, but certain some showers.

  31. Hey hey hey, TK. Atlas is the company providing the fireworks on the common. They coincidentally are the company you recommended to me when I was given the job of coordinating the fireworks for Sutton’s first Fourth parade and celebration in 2019. They sure over-performed here

    1. Sorry just saw this now. 🙂
      Yes it was Atlas and they did a wonderful show in both places!
      They were also the company doing the first show I saw this year after that very long break (June 12 in Quincy). And they were June 26’s performers at Braintree’s 4th of July display I was at! I meant to ask you if Sutton was going to consider doing something like that again.

      1. Next year. I have a reminder to call Atlas tomorrow to start the fireworks end of things. Since we depend 100% on contributions, it takes starting now; and last year was too uncertain to do anything.

        1. Makes perfect sense. At least knowing next year the celebrations can be the most normal ones we’ve had since 2019 you can start the planning. And you’re right, it’s a long process, especially if you don’t have a solid and guaranteed money source.

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