Monday July 5 2021 Forecast (8:57AM)

86 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 5-9)

The “gift” that kept on giving. The upper low sent one more lobe of energy down across portions of the WHW forecast area last evening, bringing some showers to the region pretty much just in time for a lot of fireworks displays, but the ones scheduled all happened, because at that point I think everybody was pretty much used to the unsettled weather, everything was ready to go, and it just went ahead. At least there were no thunderstorms, nor did we see the widespread heavier rainfall of the previous few days. Finally, today, we get to say goodbye once and for all to that upper low, but not before it sends one final batch of clouds across the region this morning. Today will feature warmer weather than any of the past three days did, but it will be a modest warm-up, as most areas recover back to the 70s for highs, with relatively low humidity. But a warm front is heading this way, and will be evident by an increase in clouds again late today and tonight. I’ve been slightly concerned about some shower and thunderstorm activity with this warm front but I am pretty sure now that any activity will be rather isolated and favor areas to the north, but still cannot rule out an isolated shower/t-storm or two getting into the area in the pre-dawn hours Tuesday. Regardless, heat and humidity makes a re-appearance on Tuesday, and a trough approaching the region during the afternoon and evening will bring a round of thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe. Greatest chance for the strongest activity will be in southern NH, northern and central MA and possibly into northeastern CT and northern RI, with a decent chance the activity weakens as it heads southeastward by evening. Nevertheless, anybody with outdoor plans or travel plans in the area should be aware of the storm risk and keep a close eye on the weather. A quieter but warm and muggy Tuesday night will be followed by a hot and humid Wednesday, but a cold front will move into the region and bring the chance of additional showers and thunderstorms. That front will move into, but not completely through the region, likely hanging up somewhere near the South Coast and sitting through there Friday. This will allow a couple waves of low pressure to ride along it, and some of the moisture from the remains of Elsa to become involved Thursday night into Friday, keeping the weather unsettled into if not through Friday. This time, however, we won’t see the temperatures drop nearly as low as they did over the holiday weekend…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy into mid morning. Mostly sunny later morning on, but some clouds returning from the west again by late day. Highs 72-79. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible overnight, favoring southern NH. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point rising to upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible early. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms afternoon and evening. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 73-80. Dew point 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 70-77. Dew point 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 10-14)

Weak high pressure should move in for a fair weather interlude July 10. After that, it’s back to unsettled weather as another low pressure area and frontal systems move in from the west and take their time getting out of here, bringing higher humidity and shower/thunderstorm opportunities.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 15-19)

Indications of a little stronger high pressure to the south and some upper ridging which increase the heat potential but may reduce the frequency of showers and storms.

86 thoughts on “Monday July 5 2021 Forecast (8:57AM)”

  4. ….and the typo a few lines after that… oh boy.
    I promise I’m not hung over. I didn’t even drink anything, except water, and one cola at the pizza place!

    1. Probably just have to be lucky enough to have a person happen to know the person….

      Anyway, this is the coolest thing. 🙂

      1. I thought maybe putting a note on the doors of the nearest houses. The yards there are small and very established so hard to see into the back yard for a weather station. She wants to gift the piece to the owner of the wunder station. How special is that?

    2. Thank you for asking. I’d asked here two days ago also. Jean and I narrowed it to the center of School St between two homes. Folks are telling her it is Burbank school. I do not think it is but not positive. Others are telling her it is private which is in a way true, but not private enough.

      The work is phenomenal. Are you a friend?

      1. I just know her on reddit casually. I have a little weather subforum where I post the weekly maps every monday and friday and she shares her progress there every month with the community.

        1. Very nice. She and I chatted a bit on messenger last week for the first time. Very nice lady.

    1. No off the top of my head. Sorry. I can take a quick look and see if anything comes to mind. 🙂

      1. I can’t see anything obvious. I couldn’t even find info about my own station. 🙂 🙂 I commend them for keeping it private.

  10. The only thing I see lacking tomorrow is the bulk shear is not ideal for thunderstorms tomorrow. The CAPE and mid level lapse rates might be enough to offset the low bulk shear values where areas that do get hit tomorrow could have a locally strong or severe thunderstorm.

    1. From NWS Norton:

      The other concern for Tue is the potential for a few strong to
      severe t-storms. The heat and humidity beneath modest mid level
      lapse rates around 6.5 C/km will contribute to a rather unstable
      environment with MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/kg. Deep layer shear is 25-30
      kt which is weaker than you want to see for an organized severe
      event, but enough given the magnitude of instability and somewhat
      favorable mid level lapse rates to support a few strong to severe
      storms. Some of the CAMs are fairly robust indicating line segments
      moving south across the region in the afternoon, likely a reflection
      of a low level boundary and linear forcing which may allow for some
      upscale growth. Steep low level lapse rates suggest strong to
      damaging wind will be the primary threat. However not expecting a
      widespread significant severe event due to a relative lack of strong
      shear. Heavy rainfall will also be a concern with PWATs 1.75-2
      inches, especially with any training storms.

  12. WBZ misspeak of the day…

    “Tuesday and Wednesday highs will be near 90 both days except that it will be near 100 in the afternoon.”

    I think I know what they were trying to say, but it surely did not come out like that. 😀

      1. Yes they definitely meant that but when I heard it it sounded funny and I started laughing while I was driving down the road by myself…

  13. Is it too early to have a rough idea of timing in the severe possibilities tomorrow? Thank you

    1. The total window is about 1:00 p.m. to 7:00 p.m. and if I was to narrow it down for your area I would put it in the 2:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. window.

      I do think that severe weather will be the exception for sure. It usually is anyway but this time it may be just in a few isolated locations.

  14. Thank you, TK.

    The U.S. is now 245 years old. A remarkable achievement for the most successful social experiment ever conducted. Ours is a country that has seen its fair share of tumult, including a bloody civil war along with persistent civil strife that continues to this day. Yet the U.S. remains a beacon of light to so many. Moreover, it maintains an outsize influence in the world across every domain; from the sciences to technology to the arts to sports.

    1. I still think we are the greatest country in the world despite our problems.

      But we can’t just assume we are the greatest country in the world. Each and every one of us has to work to make that happen and stay. And being the greatest country in the world doesn’t mean we’re better than everybody else. It means we should be able to give our people the best opportunities and help others who don’t have it. That’s far from perfect too. But I will always believe we can make it happen.

  17. I know there have been a few comments about the increased rabbit and squirrel and chipmunk population, but one thing that is really high in population around my area right now are mourning doves. I have never seen as many mourning doves in my neighborhood as there are this year. As I write this one is sitting right above my second floor window with its coo song going.

    On a very related note we have quite a few turkeys around and as it turns out turkeys help control the tick population. They like to find and consume the little critters. I will deal with the turkeys if it means fewer ticks…

    1. We have mourning doves in our neighborhood as well.
      As for turkeys, I actually like them. I think they are cool birds. 🙂

      1. I like the turkeys too. Don’t wanna piss those things off though… haha! The ones in my neighborhood are rather docile. You just keep your distance and they keep theirs. 🙂

    2. We have a tick boom. Almost every time someone goes in yard, there is a tick on them. We have a one eared bunny I have named Peter as he is curious and is constantly leaving siblings, Flopsy and Mopsy, shaking their heads as to where he has disappeared to. Had three beautiful deer the other day. We do not have squirrels and rarely have chipmunks. Foxes, groundhogs, turkeys and coy wolves are plentiful. We have our first skunk. Pew. SIL captured a fledgling mockingbird yesterday that fell from nest and was about to walk over the storm drain. There were two and we watched mom and dad feed them on the ground. No idea what became of them. Bluebirds had their first babies hatch in our bluebird house and swallows immediately took over the nest

      But nothing is different from past years.

      Phew, I’m exhausted

      1. I know the tick thing is serious but when you said the phrase “tick boom” I started singing the Jazzy Jeff & Fresh Prince song “Boom Boom Shake The Room” … “tick tick tick tick BOOM!” hahaha!

    3. All I have in my neighborhood are squirrels, skunks and some raccoons. No real cute animals at all.

      YUCK!!! 🙁

  18. TK, wonderful comment. Quotable in fact:

    “But we can’t just assume we are the greatest country in the world. Each and every one of us has to work to make that happen and stay. And being the greatest country in the world doesn’t mean we’re better than everybody else. It means we should be able to give our people the best opportunities and help others who don’t have it.”

  19. Love mourning doves. Common bird, but there’s something special about it. Also like the North American chipmunk. Saw quite a few on my bike ride yesterday.

    1. We had a chipmunk in framingham who could fire through a maybe 1/2-3/4 inch opening into the bird feeder. Problem was, it filled its cheeks to the max and of course couldn’t fit back out. Mac would quickly open the top when we finally heard it thrashing around inside. Out it would jump, cheers still full, without so much of a thank you, sir 😉

  20. Thanks TK.

    Tomorrow looks very interesting (and I believe TK was onto this potential several days ago). Bit of a glancing blow from a remnant EML, not the best example of it but that combined with the hot/humid surface will build plenty of instability. Bulk shear isn’t overly impressive, only about 25 to 30 kt which is pretty marginal for organized convection. However, SRH (basically, the “rotational” component of the shear) is rather high especially considering the relative lack of bulk shear.

    I’m a little unsure as to where the greatest threat is going to be. Better instability south, better shear north (which is fairly typical). So I think both SNE and the eastern mid-Atlantic are in play. Damaging winds should be the biggest threat, especially if storms are able to organize into a more solid line or lines. But wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple of tornadoes across the region as well.

  21. Philip, if you like birds you’ll find many different kinds in Dorchester, and really any Boston neighborhood, except Chinatown. From woodpeckers to blue jays to cardinals to gold finches, there’s a wide variety to discover. Then if you head to adjacent neighborhoods like Mattapan, Roslindale, and Jamaica Plain, you’ll find everything from beavers to foxes to skunks to turtles.

    Even where I live there’s a ton of wildlife right next to loud and busy Storrow Drive. On my run along the Esplanade I saw a blue heron, several painted turtles, a cat bird, and too many Canada geese.

    1. A very large blue heron flew right by me on the Esplanade last evening. I also was able to take a photo of the now famous “single parent” swan and its 2 cygnets. I may be able to grab that photo from Facebook….

      https://scontent-bos3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/211923713_10159527074772265_3063750429715626102_n.jpg?_nc_cat=100&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=Nzbi7j3BTjgAX-Z3hkV&tn=CtySQxFApxfVFP-A&_nc_ht=scontent-bos3-1.xx&oh=ceb4c1a5881e635a751ebbf2cf3c5d76&oe=60E92927

      I hope that works.

    2. Yes, there are nice birds in Dorchester along with turkeys passing through during the spring months. Just a couple weeks ago, I met a lone female turkey in my path on my way to the bus stop one morning. Surprisingly, she barely moved out of my way. She didn’t seem afraid of me at all. 🙂

  22. Aphelion day today, 6:30pm or so this evening. Earths furthest distance of the year from the sun at 94,511,000 or so miles. Compared to perihelion, in early Jan at 91,400,000 miles or so. Somewhere around the year 6,400, aphelion and perihelion will occur at the autumnal and vernal equinoxes respectively. Then, in 10,000 years or so, aphelion will be at the Northern hemisphere winter solstice and perihelion will be at Northern hemisphere summer solstice.

    1. 🙂 saw this am but knew the honor of announcing Aphelion Day belonged to you. I had no idea. Fascinating. Thank you.

  25. 12z models taking Elsa closer to SE New England. Euro op run down in mid 980 mbs at Florida landfall and deepening pressure again south of New England, extra tropical transition ???

    1. The Euro still has it as tropical up here. It is warm-core all the way up to 300mb, and shows the classic, “wind on the right, rain on the left” pattern that we get with tropicals moving up this way. In terms of strength, it still has it as a strong tropical storm. The Euro starts to strengthen it again as it gets into eastern NC, and then out over the Gulf Stream. “Claudette” did the same thing, and the Euro sniffed that out days in advance, long before the other models caught on. It’s been doing that with Elsa for a few days now.

      The GFS keeps it over land for far too long, so it likely would not be tropical any more.

    1. Yes.

      The mid range model struggles are at play here. If they are under predicting the Atlantic ridge/ Bermuda High, this has a chance to come further west yet. Stay tuned ….. not so much for wind, but given the recent rains we’ve had, a 3-6 inch dump of rain in eastern areas could cause some issues.

      1. If it goes more West, then is the possibility of
        Severe weather introduced? I suppose it depends upon
        how much instability can be produced here.

    2. You get a really nice idea of just how far inland JP actually is.
      Where a good 5-6 miles in from Logan. 🙂

      1. years ago, the city was actually thinking of installing a ski area
        on Peter’s Hill. So happy they decided against that.

    4. Absolutely Beautiful photo.

      I would have guessed you are closer. My home in Belmont was 9-10 miles from Logan. The Cambridge reservoir in Cushing Square, Belmont, is about 7 miles from the Esplanade. We used to watch the fireworks from the top of the hill.

  28. Thanks, TK!
    Happy Independence Day Observed!

    Dewpoint has ticked up a bit and it is noticeable while doing a little yard work.

    Last week, I noted that I am a PA announcer for kids at Middleborough High. The game I announced was live-streamed on our school’s YouTube channel.
    That’s me standing near home plate announcing the game’s starting line-ups.

    Ironically, wonderfully and proudly, my son, David, helped provide the call on the play-by-play for the broadcast:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XXDcHLj7Gno&t=469s

    I have privileged to have worked as a PA announcer and play-by-play announcer for many different sports. I got my start at Mansfield High School. Here I am (wearing the cowboy hat…not sure why) at Memorial Park, Mansfield in the Fall of 1977.

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/278Q8p1rt49Ae1HA7

    1. Thanks for sharing. Love the cowboy hat. Makes it look like you’re at a Texas auction.

  29. JPD, great photo!

    TK, love the shot of the single parent with 2 remaining cygnets. May I post this on my hubwildlife website, with attribution, of course, to you?

    1. Joshua,
      I posted a photo on yesterday’s blog. I thought you might be interested in it, not so much for the content, but rather the location. 🙂 🙂

  30. Thanks for alerting me to your great photos, JPD. I do recognize the one from near the Needham/Dover line. Wish my mother was still with us so I could show her the picture. She so much loved living there. I did, too.

  31. Ryan Hanrahan’s tweet on the severe weather threat for tomorrow.
    Seems like a decent risk for severe weather tomorrow. Plenty of instability, relatively strong low level shear, and a weak disturbance moving in should fire up some big storms by afternoon. Damaging winds, hail, and a low risk for a tornado will be the main threats.

    https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1412143114312208390

  32. JPD love the shot you posted from your son. I’ve taken some skyline photos from the other side and one from the south (Granite Links). Can’t wait to do it with my zoom lens sometime. 🙂

  33. Convection exploded over Worcester County, northern and western Middlesex County, and Southern New Hampshire between 2:30 and 3:00 am. I had an impressive light show for much of my drive home. Here in Brockton, the moon and stars are out with frequent lightning visible to the northwest.

    1. Woke me up here but nothing too close, but good deep rumbles. The area started to weaken as it went by my longitude but was still popping bolts out to my southwest and south.

      Been a while since we had warm front convection like that in the wee hours, at least up in my area.

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