Globally, the situation is now worsening across all regions. The lack of coordination of policies is contributing to the deteriorating situation. Among other countries with record-high deaths this week: Russia and Indonesia. South Africa and Thailand are seeing big surges, which could lead to record-level deaths next week or the week after. Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove is an American scientist working at WHO. This thread of hers is important: https://twitter.com/mvankerkhove/status/1412330472034689025
Thanks, Joshua. Chilling doesn’t begin to describe.
Biden needs to stop focusing on his 70% or whatever it is he is using for a message and focus on this. Heck never mind consistency worldwide. We don’t have any consistency here both among states and within states.
Seasonality is out the door with Delta. Already, in July(!), Europe is entering yet another wave, fueled by Delta. One can say the `good news’ is that most new infections are among a younger and much less vulnerable population, and many vulnerable people are protected, at least somewhat. The bad news is the virus gets passed on to a still large number of unprotected, vulnerable folks. Furthermore, some of the younger people do get seriously ill.
I also wrote that the UK had achieved near herd immunity. Man, I was totally wrong. Today’s caseload is the highest since January. Hospitalizations are rising sharply, so much so that in Scotland a large regional hospital no longer has capacity. Other hospitals in the North of England are near capacity. https://twitter.com/bbchealth/status/1412449594177380362
My prediction for the U.S., for what it’s worth, is that nationwide we’re going to have a steady increase in cases and hospitalizations this week and next, followed perhaps by a dramatic rise in a number of states, including Florida, Arkansas, Mississippi, Texas, and Arizona. How will Massachusetts do? Well, better than down South, but I fear our cases will show a steady increasing trend by the end of this week. Even Massachusetts is not in herd immunity territory. Not with this virus.
Joshua, aren’t the U.S. based vaccines the strongest compared to the rest of the world? Could we as a nation still reach herd immunity “if” more got vaccinated? Or is it too late now anyway?
What do kids want to get out of now anyway? School is over for summer.
Not in the UK. Pupils have a very short summer break – about 5 weeks – from the end of July until the 1st of September.
In fact, throughout most of Europe children are still in school.
The U.S. is a distinct outlier in terms of having a 10 week summer vacation.
Philip, I think you’re referring to the mRNA vaccines – Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna. Moderna is a purely U.S. developed and manufactured product. While it’s used overseas it’s not as commonly used outside the U.S. as Pfizer/BioNTech’s vaccine. This is a largely German-developed vaccine (BioNTech part), though Pfizer is an American company. Pfizer’s vaccine has been a workhorse here in the U.S., but also in Israel, the U.K. and increasingly across Europe.
Both mRNA vaccines do appear to be better than the others, like Astra Zeneca and J&J/Janssen. But, they’re not being used exclusively in the U.S.
The mRNA vaccines appear to retain most of their ability to prevent severe illness, also against the Delta variant. Has dropped a little in efficacy, but 93% is still quite good. But, their ability to prevent contracting the virus is diminishing. From 94% to 80%, according to Public Health England/Scotland, and from 94% to 64%, according to the Israeli Health Ministry (I’ve read about some possible methodological concerns with the Israel study, but I don’t believe that takes away from its take-home message that vaccine efficacy is declining).
Latest MA positivity rate for the past 4 days is 0.42%. Getting higher still.
Still a good number.
At least we’re not my old country, the Netherlands, which decided to relax most Covid restrictions waaaay too soon the last week of June (only about 34% of adults are fully vaccinated). And they basically used an on/off switch rather than a dimmer. Result: Rt is 2.8! Cases are doubling every 2 days! Test positivity was down to 2.6% and is now at 5.7%, in a matter of days. The power of Delta. They’re reporting numerous reinfections as well, something CDC fails to mention. I think reinfections are quite common with Delta.
C-19 for 7-7 is ready.
Comments are closed.
Your no-hype southeastern New England weather blog!
Globally, the situation is now worsening across all regions. The lack of coordination of policies is contributing to the deteriorating situation. Among other countries with record-high deaths this week: Russia and Indonesia. South Africa and Thailand are seeing big surges, which could lead to record-level deaths next week or the week after. Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove is an American scientist working at WHO. This thread of hers is important: https://twitter.com/mvankerkhove/status/1412330472034689025
Thanks, Joshua. Chilling doesn’t begin to describe.
Biden needs to stop focusing on his 70% or whatever it is he is using for a message and focus on this. Heck never mind consistency worldwide. We don’t have any consistency here both among states and within states.
Seasonality is out the door with Delta. Already, in July(!), Europe is entering yet another wave, fueled by Delta. One can say the `good news’ is that most new infections are among a younger and much less vulnerable population, and many vulnerable people are protected, at least somewhat. The bad news is the virus gets passed on to a still large number of unprotected, vulnerable folks. Furthermore, some of the younger people do get seriously ill.
Once again, I was wrong in my assessments several months ago. I wrote that Israel had achieved herd immunity. Clearly it hasn’t. https://twitter.com/ReneeUKCats/status/1412450311411732481
I also wrote that the UK had achieved near herd immunity. Man, I was totally wrong. Today’s caseload is the highest since January. Hospitalizations are rising sharply, so much so that in Scotland a large regional hospital no longer has capacity. Other hospitals in the North of England are near capacity. https://twitter.com/bbchealth/status/1412449594177380362
My prediction for the U.S., for what it’s worth, is that nationwide we’re going to have a steady increase in cases and hospitalizations this week and next, followed perhaps by a dramatic rise in a number of states, including Florida, Arkansas, Mississippi, Texas, and Arizona. How will Massachusetts do? Well, better than down South, but I fear our cases will show a steady increasing trend by the end of this week. Even Massachusetts is not in herd immunity territory. Not with this virus.
Joshua, aren’t the U.S. based vaccines the strongest compared to the rest of the world? Could we as a nation still reach herd immunity “if” more got vaccinated? Or is it too late now anyway?
Oh, those clever youngsters:
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210705-how-children-are-spoofing-covid-19-tests-with-soft-drinks
What do kids want to get out of now anyway? School is over for summer.
Not in the UK. Pupils have a very short summer break – about 5 weeks – from the end of July until the 1st of September.
In fact, throughout most of Europe children are still in school.
The U.S. is a distinct outlier in terms of having a 10 week summer vacation.
Philip, I think you’re referring to the mRNA vaccines – Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna. Moderna is a purely U.S. developed and manufactured product. While it’s used overseas it’s not as commonly used outside the U.S. as Pfizer/BioNTech’s vaccine. This is a largely German-developed vaccine (BioNTech part), though Pfizer is an American company. Pfizer’s vaccine has been a workhorse here in the U.S., but also in Israel, the U.K. and increasingly across Europe.
Both mRNA vaccines do appear to be better than the others, like Astra Zeneca and J&J/Janssen. But, they’re not being used exclusively in the U.S.
The mRNA vaccines appear to retain most of their ability to prevent severe illness, also against the Delta variant. Has dropped a little in efficacy, but 93% is still quite good. But, their ability to prevent contracting the virus is diminishing. From 94% to 80%, according to Public Health England/Scotland, and from 94% to 64%, according to the Israeli Health Ministry (I’ve read about some possible methodological concerns with the Israel study, but I don’t believe that takes away from its take-home message that vaccine efficacy is declining).
Latest MA positivity rate for the past 4 days is 0.42%. Getting higher still.
Still a good number.
At least we’re not my old country, the Netherlands, which decided to relax most Covid restrictions waaaay too soon the last week of June (only about 34% of adults are fully vaccinated). And they basically used an on/off switch rather than a dimmer. Result: Rt is 2.8! Cases are doubling every 2 days! Test positivity was down to 2.6% and is now at 5.7%, in a matter of days. The power of Delta. They’re reporting numerous reinfections as well, something CDC fails to mention. I think reinfections are quite common with Delta.
C-19 for 7-7 is ready.