Wednesday July 7 2021 Forecast (7:45AM)

114 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 7-11)

Another very warm and muggy day today, with a bit more sun than yesterday, and with a cold front moving toward the region from the northwest, the ingredients will be in place for the development of showers and thunderstorms again this afternoon into this evening. Although the coverage of activity may end up a little less than yesterday’s was, some of the storms can still become quite strong to locally severe, so keep a close eye on the weather today. The cold front will move through the region this evening then settle just to the south of New England near the South Coast into Thursday, allowing cooler and only slightly less humid air to move in, but cloud cover will be extensive and there will be enough moisture around for additional showers, most of them Thursday afternoon and evening. A plume of tropical moisture in advance of Elsa, which at that time will be heading northeastward over land toward New England, will probably send the heaviest rain in advance of the system west of the WHW forecast area Thursday evening, and at the same time the frontal boundary that came through before will be lifting back as a warm front and returning higher humidity air to our region, just in time for the low pressure circulation of Elsa, which may still have some tropical characteristics, to move northeastward and probably right across southeastern New England on Friday. This is when our heaviest and most widespread rainfall will likely occur, along with embedded thunderstorms, some of which may rotate. We’ll have to keep an eye on these for potential pockets of wind damage. Otherwise the main threat on Friday will be local flooding from heavy rain. I remain optimistic for weekend improvement as a bubble of high pressure moves in behind the departing low pressure area for Saturday, but there will be enough residual moisture left behind so that a pop up shower cannot be ruled out. I do think the vast majority of the region will be dry for most of if not all of Saturday. A warm front may approach by later Sunday with more cloudiness, but for now this also looks like a rain-free and relatively low humidity day, not bad considering the pattern we’re in.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Any thunderstorms can become strong to severe. Highs 83-90, cooler South Coast. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, may be variable and gusty near any storms.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm possible. Areas of fog forming. Lows 61-68. Dew point falling to lower 60s. Wind shifting to N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers possible morning and midday. Increased chance of showers during the afternoon. Highs 69-76. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH shifting to S.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms, ending from west to east during the afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 68-75. Dew point upper 60s. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, may be variable with strong gusts in heavier showers/storms.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of isolated showers. Highs 75-82. Dew point falling to upper 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog forming over interior lower elevations. Lows 58-65. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 12-16)

This 5-day period presents higher humidity again with a few opportunities for showers and thunderstorms with temperatures mostly near normal as we’ll be in a pattern somewhat similar to this week’s, but likely without the addition of the remains of a tropical system this time. It most definitely won’t rain all the time, but we’ll probably track several opportunities for it.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 17-21)

Continued indications of a little stronger high pressure to the south and some upper ridging which increase the heat potential but may reduce the frequency of showers and storms.

114 thoughts on “Wednesday July 7 2021 Forecast (7:45AM)”

  1. Yesterday’s storms, though heavy trash buckets of rain and only a bit of thunder/lightning..got our internet and phones knocked out from 7pm last night till sometime late night/early morning.

  2. Thanks, TK.
    Dewpoints and drenchings. Got soaked last night heading to a FedEx box. Wild winds knocking down branches for a few minutes. Summertime!

  3. Good morning and thank you, TK.

    Vicki, I just saw your posts from last night — yikes. We went for a walk around 7:30 and saw some significant damage to one tree up the street, but nothing like those pictures on Twitter. We just had a few twigs to pick up from the ground when we got back.

    We did lose internet coverage in the evening and power at some point during the night. I guess they may have shut it off in order to fix something that got damaged.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    0.19 inch of rain last evening in a WIMPY T-Storm here.
    I know it was bad in many locations, but not here.

      1. Yes 🙂 🙂 🙂

        I think we got about .02

        but ….. a shower passed to our east southeast around sunset, while the western horizon cleared for the sun to appear and we got a great rainbow, followed by a 5 minute period where it looked like we were on Mars. Very red.

                1. I am having issues with messenger on my phone, so, it may be a while before I can open your message. 🙂 🙂 🙂

                  Technology !!!!!!!!!

    2. Boston is at the Eastern end of that slight area. I read that as garden variety for Boston as any severe storms will wane as
      they approach the coast. Yes, one never knows for sure, but
      past history would support this. We shall see. Either way, I would expect to see something a bit more potent than I saw
      yesterday evening. 🙂

  10. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_tracks_12z.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_intensity_12z.png

    Hurricane models continue further NW with remnants of TD/TS Elsa projected to track over SE Mass.

    Intensity models give hint of storm’s intensity maintaining strength during its journey, perhaps due to some water interaction starting around Chesapeake Bay, but I think more likely due to favorable jet stream interaction promoting very healthy outflow aloft.

    Might be an interesting Friday.

    1. Specifically on intensity, nearly every plot has a slightly stronger system at hr 48, when it’s near us, compared to hr 24, when it’s in the mid Atlantic.

  11. Thanks TK
    As JpDave mentioned we are now in a slight risk for today. It looks damaging winds will be the main threat with these storms like yesterday. I was visiting my mom and stepdad yesterday when the thunderstorm rolled in around 5pm. The next door neighbor had a few tree branches come down but thankfully fell in their yard.

      1. In my end of shift briefing for my boss early this morning, I mentioned that the Euro kept the track inland the entire time now, but had insane winds south and east of the center, especially along the South Coast and across SE Mass, with a lot of rain to the north and west.

  16. It looks like eastern New England could be on the bad side of what is left of Elsa with not only the rain but strong wind gusts which could lead to some power issues.

      1. This track could change but I am thinking Boston area south shore Cape and Islands on the right side of whatever is left of Elsa and that is the bad side where the strongest winds happen. I was in that spot last August with Isias and lost power for four days along with tree damage.

  17. From NWS Boston for today
    HREF guidance including max updrafts and 2-5 km updraft
    helocity, suggest strongest storms could be across CT into western-central MA, given proximity to stronger 700 mb winds
    over eastern NY state.

    1. I am more concerned about possible rotating thunderstorms on
      the East side of this thing. We shall see.

  21. JpDave NWS Boston mentioned the risk of tornadoes for Friday for whatever Elsa is when it gets here.

    1. Thanks JJ. Here it is from the Norton Office:

      Finally, will mention briefly that there could be a tornado risk
      dependent on the track of Elsa. If we can get into the northeast
      quadrant of this system could see 0-1 and 0-3 km helicity values in the 100-300+ range. Folks will want to stay tuned to the forecast.

  23. Hmmm

    Logan’s wind has shift to WNW and dp has dropped to 66.
    Temporary? what caused that?

    1. Dps to our West are all 64-66. I am not going to complain about a drop in the dp, curious as to why and I think it will affect
      T-storm development.

  24. So far, the action in NY state moving into VT is paltry.

    I would think it would be starting to pick up and not waning.

    1. You mean the fact that they are consistently higher than every other model, and usually well overdone? Yeah, fun to look at, but I usually take about 20% off of them. Even doing that, it still looks rather windy around here on Friday.

  26. WxWatcher are you thinking they are overdone??? For people in eastern SNE I hope that is the case as Elsa will be what Isias was for my area last August

    1. Yes, they are overdone. Not to say there won’t be a period of gusty winds. *If* the track is favorable, southeast New England could see a couple hours of gusts possibly in the 45-60mph range. But there’s a big difference at least in impact between that and what the Euro is showing. Around 60mph tends to be the cutoff between scattered and widespread tree/utility damage.

  28. I feel like I am looking at the same map as yesterday from the SPC. It could be a rinse and repeat with thunderstorms that could have damaging wind gusts.

  29. Lighting display in NYC yesterday evening: https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1412822676918476801

    The crews haven’t found out what the problem is with the poor drainage in and near my building. Collapsed drain, perhaps. But they can’t find it. They’re excavating a test drain site in the courtyard and also the trash area prior to the arrival of the remnants of Elsa, because they think that otherwise the interior of the building will be impacted. We’ll see. It’s a major operation. Fingers crossed.

    1. Nice write-up!
      Anybody’s guess as to exact track once it crosses this area. My bet: Just NW of the BOS-PVD corridor. Less than ECMWF strength.

  34. Already a warned storm in NY around Albany. I don’t suppose there is a chance to keep these out of this area until after 6:30. I have a steak that needs grilling that I had to put off from last night. Inside doesn’t work. I set off smoke detectors 🙁

  35. A shout-out to the Commonwealth Avenue Mall: The strip of green with a pedestrian path, statues, and park benches, all underneath a canopy of leaves provided by ample numbers of beautiful oaks and other deciduous trees, is the perfect spot on a hot, summer’s day. Even when it’s 90F outside and humid, sitting on a bench on the Mall is delightful. Shaded, protected from the hot sun. Whoever designed the Mall was a masterful architect and planner.

    1. Most years, after attending the Sox game on Patriots Day, my better half and I will walk down a good chunk of that Mall towards the Common (if the weather is nice enough).

  36. Some of those cells out there look as bad as the worst of it yesterday. I highly doubt they will be that strong when
    they reach Boston. We shall see.

    1. We will probably see those organize into more of a cluster or line and then perpetuate themselves via regeneration along outflow boundary. Thinking overall areas are similar and coverage is similar to slightly less than yesterday’s activity. Nevertheless, ready for curve balls if they are thrown.

        1. I’ve never been a good pitcher but I have a rock skipping video on the web that’s got about 11,000 views. 😉

  37. Thank you TK
    Speaking of curve balls my sons baseball playoff tournament game scheduled for last evening was canceled and rescheduled for tonight at 7:30. Looking at the radar those storms maybe around central mass around 6:00 from my best guess. Hopefully we can get it in today.

  39. It’s not a big deal, I hope, but the NHC at 5pm has put the entire south coast of New England under a TS watch and at looks like up to the tip of Cape Cod. Couldn’t quite see how far north that extended.

  41. Warned storms were moving south of me and anything headed this way was not warned. That turned around quickly.

  43. SC looks as if you are in it now if you are in Sturbridge area. But maybe you will be out of it quickly????????

  44. Quick hitter here in Sturbridge. Lots of lightning with these. Was a thin line picked up a quick 1/4”. Big gust of wind as the rain came in, no hail.

  45. Yes game is still on these are moving through quickly. Hopefully no more behind these.

  46. Two more rounds of storms just moved through here in Manchester CT after yesterday’s warned storm. No hail with these like yesterday’s storm but some serious wind and cloud to ground bolts close by. Lots of branches down outside the office. This was a pretty wild couple of days! And perhaps a tropical storm to cap it off in another 36 hours…

    1. that’ about as low as one can ho for T-storms.

      .28 with this one. nice light show, but the best of it was 10′-15 miles south of me.

      1. Hmmmm. Rumbling thunder ….but soooo quiet ….0.08 rain. Two visible flashes. I’m going for sub-wimpy.

  49. Here we go again…..third round of storms tonight moving through and fourth round in the last 24+ hours. Pouring with more thunder and lightning. At least this one isn’t warned. I’ll be interested to see our 24 hour rain total in the rain gauge when I get home.

    1. Oh my. I am watching them on the radar as they drop south of us. And am treated to much of the lightning show.

  50. We are going to have some astronomical rain totals between last week, yesterday/today, and what’s forecast to come over the next few days. Will likely be approaching 20-25% of the average annual rainfall over a two week span in some areas.

  52. Quite the line of storms moving across CT and Western MA at 2:30am. A lot of you are going to be woken up around 4-5am, and I should have quite the light show for at least part of my drive home.

  54. 0 28 inch earlier last evening, then 0 52 inch more in The SAK line that came through about 430 am of which I only heard 1 clap of thunder. Hey SAK line sounds like hockey.

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