Thursday July 8 2021 Forecast (7:41AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JULY 8-12)

Our active early summer pattern continues, and we’ll be throwing a tropical storm into the mix, by name of Elsa. This will cross the region Friday during the day bringing a rain and wind event to southeastern New England. Before that happens, much of the region is now on the cooler side of a front that moved in from the north last evening, bringing another couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, some with impressive lightning shows, as well as some pockets of wind damage. Another disturbance moved through at mid and upper levels from west to east right behind this front during the early morning hours, waking some of you up yet again with a round of heavy rain, lightning & thunder, but this has moved offshore. The frontal boundary now sits across far southern portions of southern New England and will set up a temperature contrast for today. The atmosphere above us remains unstable so as we go through the day there can be some additional shower and thunderstorms development. As we get to this evening, a plume of tropical moisture in advance of Elsa which will have pushed northward to our west will then slide eastward into the region and make the rainfall more widespread, though still showery in nature, and then the center of Elsa, while accelerating and just starting to lose tropical characteristics, will cut right across the region during Friday midday and afternoon. To the right of the track will come the strongest winds from the southeast and south, and to the left of the track a more east to northeasterly wind, gusty but less powerful, will occur, but here we will likely see some of the heaviest rainfall. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible, and this includes a small potential of a couple of tropical variety small tornadoes in some of the heavier convective elements associated with the passing system, with these most likely occurring to the east of the storm’s track. By late in the day Friday, the low center is already pulling away and we’ll all be into a northwesterly wind on its back side, rather gusty, but with less rainfall. However some lingering instability and a trough that has to sink through the region can still help trigger a few showers Friday night and a few more showers or thunderstorms, favoring southern areas, through midday Saturday. The majority of the region will be rain-free on Saturday. By Sunday, a warm front is lifting toward the region with cloudiness and eventually the risk of some showers – not a washout of a day by any stretch, but not a perfect summer day either. Monday, we should find ourselves back in the warm sector with humid conditions, lots of clouds, and the chance of showers and thunderstorms.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers possible morning and midday. Increased chance of showers during the afternoon. Highs 68-75 except 75-82 South Coast. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH shifting to S.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms, ending from southwest to northeast by late afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 68-75. Dew point upper 60s. Wind E backing to N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts in southern NH and northern through central MA, and SE to S 15-25 MPH with higher gusts southeastern MA and RI except 35-45 MPH with stronger gusts in coastal areas before shifting to NW later in the day and diminishing slightly. Potential damaging wind gusts in any heavier showers and storms.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds but still the chance of a shower. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts evening, becoming variable and diminishing overnight.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms through midday favoring southern MA southward. Highs 75-82. Dew point falling to upper 50s except remaining in the lower 60s South Coast. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog forming over interior lower elevations. Lows 58-65. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to S.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 13-17)

A continued unsettled pattern overall with a few opportunities for showers and thunderstorms with a frontal boundary in and around the region. Temperatures variable, not all that far from normal when averaged out.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 18-22)

A little more high pressure dominant but still some disturbances passing through. The risk of showers and storms will be present at times and temperatures are expected to be variable but average near to above normal.

59 thoughts on “Thursday July 8 2021 Forecast (7:41AM)”

  4. NWS re: Elsa for tomorrow

    Tonight and Friday…

    *** Damaging winds & power outages possible ***
    *** Flood Watch Tonight into Friday ***

    Evening convection weakens and lifts northeast with departing
    mid level speed max. However, moisture from Elsa begins to
    stream NE and combines with RRQ of upper level jet streak over
    southeast Canada, along with leftover surface boundary over
    SNE, yielding Elsa`s rain shield expanding NE and intensifying.
    Good model agreement that Elsa circulation will track along or
    near the I-95 corridor of eastern CT-RI into eastern MA Fri
    morning and early afternoon. Strong heavy rain/flood signal in
    the guidance especially HREF with 20-30% chance of 6 hr qpf
    exceeding 3 inches 12z-18z Fri across CT into western-central MA!
    In addition, HREF 48 hr mean qpf in this region is 4-5″! So
    given tropical connection, leftover low level boundary and RRQ
    of upper level jet streak, will hoist a Flood Watch for tonight
    into Fri from the I-95 corridor westward.

    Also, given track of Elsa across the I-95 corridor of eastern
    CT-RI and eastern MA, impressive low level circulation with
    multi model 925 mb winds 50-60 kt (up to 80 kt on EC!) across RI
    and eastern MA 12z-18z Fri. Winds of this magnitude only 3 kft
    AGL combined with tropical convective feeder bands, strong
    signal for damaging winds and power outages, especially with
    surface winds from the southeast. This is a direction that tends
    to produces tree damage given the low frequency of occurrence.
    Therefore will provide enhanced wording in our products and
    discussions to message this increased wind threat Fri.

    Models have also trended faster with Elsa`s departure, therefore
    rain may taper off from west to east Fri afternoon.

  5. Thank, TK!

    I was awakened by the thunderboomers around 4 am.

    I looked at the NWS-BOX map yesterday evening and there were 12 different warnings, watches and statements in the forecast area!

    We are certainly getting our money’s worth this week!

    1. That was sure a doozy. And it went on forever. No warning on that; but yesterday with the many you mentioned, I wondered why they didn’t just put one warning box up that included all of MA ……. 😉

  9. Thanks TK. I am glad I was not away on vacation this week with all the active weather were having. Where I am in CT for the third straight day there is a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms with a low risk of a tornado. I had a good thunderstorm with gusty winds and lightning which woke me up at 2AM this morning. It looks like I am on the heavy rain side for Elsa.

  12. SPC showing a 2% tornado chance for parts of SNE today. The SREF not showing anything for SNE.

    1. SREF barely showing anything for the area where the SPC
      already has a tornado watch.

      I don’t think the SREF is as good with these tropical system
      tornadoes.

      1. According to NWS Boston HREF model is bullish on that tornado potential I-91 corridor west today.

  13. I realize we are on the rainy side in Natick but wondered how much rain. Seen 2-4 estimates and 1-2 on TV. Seems like central mass. bears the brunt tomorrow. Thanks.

  14. Thank you, TK.

    The excavators can’t create the test drains until they get “approval.” From the city perhaps? Who knows. In any case, I’ll be baling water again. Luckily the rain in the wee hours this morning wasn’t enough to cause any flooding in the courtyard or trash area. Tonight’s system, however, is a different story. Oh well, we really need the rain …

  16. I think we´re going to get quite a 2-4 hr weather experience tomorrow.

    For some, that´s 2-4 inches of rain in a very short window and for some to the southeast, a wind gust event.

    Satellite and radar show a system having remained organized to this point and all models generally agree in a pressure drop of 6-8 mb from current strength.

    The upper level environment north and east of the system is excellent and improving. This will increase lift and lower the system´s pressure.

    1. Indeed, very interesting and for SE section add in the
      possibility of a tornado in any embedded convection.

      That tornado risk extends up through the Boston area and of course depends upon the exact track and strength of the system and if there are any convective elements.

      1. I think small spin-ups are a concern in and near the small area where mid 70 dps and a S-SE wind interact with areas that have mid -upper 60s dps and a E-NE wind. I know its going to be called a tropical storm moving through here, but I´d assume given this cool wedge having arrived today, there will be a coastal/warm front somewhere in eastern areas tomorrow and I´d be looking in that area for a few spin-ups.

        1. Agree. Certainly a concern. At least any if they were to occur are likely to be weak in the EF0 to EF1 category.

        2. With a tropical system, tornadoes are almost always found in the right front quadrant of the storm, which given the forecast for Elsa, means RI, SE Mass, and the Cape.

  17. Buzzards Bay high tide tomorrow around 9-9:30am.

    Naragansett Bay high tide tomorrow around 8-8:30am.

    2. Thanks, Tom. I was hoping you’d post tide info. Are they typical high tides …if that makes sense.

      1. Thankfully, a little lower than the average high tide, due to the moon being a few days past apogee.

        1. Thank you Tom. Better than it could be. Sure hope all is ok down your way and along the coast in general

  18. Joshua: Some thoughts about your flooding issues.

    Can you borrow a pump from your town’s Emergency Management department? That will work as long as the power stays on. Sandbags at the very least!

    Sounds like someone in your complex needs to step up today!

    Best of luck.

  19. What do you think the wind gusts will reach on the left side of the track in Natick and is 10-2 about the duration of the stormy time?
    Thanks.

  25. 2.29 inches of rain in last 5 hours in Raleigh, NC from Elsa.

    The rain is just about finished.

  26. Here is a current radar screen shot of the whole East coast.
    I have been watching this all afternoon and it appears to beall coming together and gaps are filling in.

    Could this be the makings of a PRE over night tonight????

    https://ibb.co/vDDXtmm

    1. Yes, I know some of it is convection within the T-storm watch area, but it sure looks ominous.

        2. It certainly leads to a more active hurricane season.

          As for winter, the effects in the Northeast are less certain compared to other parts of the county. Some of our biggest snow years came during La Nina, but some of the leanest years did too. There are other factors besides La Nina that come into play up here, and it’s far too early to determine those.

  28. I managed to cook the steak that needed cooking. I stayed between the raindrops as my dad used to tell us to do

    1. I was surprised when I left the house this morning after 3am it was just misty

      1. The main rain area was not really supposed to be here yet .. and the heavier swath ahead of it is back to the west, so we’re just in lighter rain/drizzle/fog in that area.

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