Friday July 9 2021 Forecast (7:07AM)

152 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 9-13)

Tropical Storm Elsa will cut a path across southeastern New England today, its center crossing RI and southeastern MA between late morning and early afternoon, exiting the coast mid afternoon, and accelerating away via the Gulf of Maine by tonight. The impacts here will be moderate. As is typical with a tropical system or one just starting to undergo its transition to non-tropical, the heaviest (steadiest) rainfall will be to the left of the center, with the stronger wind gusts to the right of the center, though there we will also see some heavy shower and thunderstorm clusters. Thunder may occur with the heavier rain to the left of the track as well. The tornado threat, also typical with a system like this, will be limited to an area from about Plymouth County of MA and the South Coast of RI eastward through Cape Cod, but this is also minimal (just not a zero threat). Our biggest issues with this system will be localized flooding due to heavy rain after an already wet week for most of the region mostly near and to the west of where the center tracks, and isolated pockets of wind damage and resultant power outages mostly near and to the east of where the center tracks. This will be over rather quickly, so don’t expect an all-day event. Some areas, especially south and west of Boston, may be seeing breaks of sun before mid afternoon and even areas to the north and east may get in on that before the day is over. Tonight, a weak frontal boundary moves into the region from the west and may set off a few showers and possible thunderstorms, with the greatest chance of thunder being near and south of I-90. This boundary will still be around for a while on Saturday before settling off to the south, so the chance of a few showers and thunderstorms is still in play, again favoring areas mostly south of I-90. This activity will be gone in time for a quiet Saturday night into Sunday, weather-wise, but you’ll notice an increase in cloudiness again during Sunday as that boundary decides it wants to be a warm front and starts a northward creep back into the region, which will take until late Monday to happen, so we’ll be back into some unsettled weather later Sunday through Monday with lots of clouds and occasional showers. It remains to be seen if the front pushes its way all the way through by Tuesday to put us back into a sector of warmer and muggy weather. Some guidance says yes, other guidance says no, and I’m “on the fence” about it myself, so will cover both scenarios with generic wording in the detailed forecast below, then fine-tune as needed.

TODAY: Cloudy through early afternoon with areas of fog / drizzle / rain to start, then a swath of heavier rain left of Elsa’s track and numerous moderate to heavy showers right of Elsa’s track mid morning through early afternoon from south southwest to north northeast across the region. Embedded thunderstorms possible all areas. Clouds may break for partial sun from southwest to northeast mid afternoon on. Highs 68-75. Dew point upper 60s. Wind E shifting to N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts left of Elsa’s track, SE shifting to S 15-25 MPH with higher gusts right of Elsa’s track. Pockets of damaging wind may occur, including brief isolated small tornadoes, especially from Plymouth County and coastal RI eastward through noon. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts during the afternoon but diminishing later.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few showers and a chance of a thunderstorm, favoring areas near and south of I-90. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W to variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, favoring areas south of I-90. Highs 75-82. Dew point falling to upper 50s except remaining in the lower 60s South Coast. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog forming over interior lower elevations. Lows 58-65. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 75-82, cooler coastal areas.. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60s. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few showers and thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60s. Wind variable to S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 14-18)

A frontal boundary and a couple of disturbances passing through the region will continue the opportunity for some showers and thunderstorms at times July 14-16. Optimistic for a drier trend for the July 17-18 weekend with a bit more heat possible. The entire forecast is low confidence at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 19-23)

Lower confidence in the medium range forecast at this time, but still thinking it may be a little more “classic” summertime here with a bit more heat and humidity with a couple shower and thunderstorm opportunities.

152 thoughts on “Friday July 9 2021 Forecast (7:07AM)”

  3. TK, good morning and thank you.

    Was thinking of cancelling dinner reservations, but looks better than I imagined. I think the storm is racing along faster than I thought.

    1. I wouldn’t cancel anything. This is a morning-midday event, and not that serious an event at that.

  5. Natick still look good for 2-3 inches? Thinking we will benefit from the progressive nature of the storm. Have to time dog walks to non heavy downpours. Thanks, TK.

      1. Some light rain, awaiting the next band of very heavy showers just to our south. Very light wind.

  8. Thanks TK. Raining to beat the band where I am and under a flash flood warning. Big difference from last July when it comes to rainfall.

  9. Thank you, TK.

    Wow, the storm flies like a Corvette on steroids. Talk about a fast-mover.

    1. I think, looking at the radar, kind of watch these main bands of heavy rain.

      Like we´ve seen in snowstorms, the bands will soon set up shop over a given area, as the individual rain elements rotate/pivot within the bands.

      Its then, in the next 2-4 hrs, which areas sit under those bands longest and which don´t. If an area is under one, then, 2-3 inches will verify, with that isolated 4-5 inch amount.

      1. New Haven and Bridgeport, CT would be examples of what I´m talking about above. They have been clobbered from 6-9am, sitting under that intense band. I´d like to see their totals later this afternoon. That should translate northeast in the next few hours.

  14. This would be one of those 4-5” snow bands we are under if this were winter!

    1.70” of rain since midnight in the gauge and rising rapidly. 4.70” on the week. Pushing 10” for a two week total.

  15. Starting pouring buckets here. It was at a rate of 5.5 inches
    per hour!!

    Now only 2.74 inch per hour. 🙂

    Up to 0.83 inch since midnight.

      1. Let’s say this, I heard it pounding outside so much that I had to drop what I was doing and have a look. I’d give it the same
        WOW! you gave it!! 🙂 🙂 🙂
        ‘
        I like the beat, I’ll give it a 98!

  18. Dr S, you sure brightened my day when I saw your name above. Your maps made it even brighter

  21. I think a third band is developing along the south coast and south of the Cape.

    I´m guessing this will intensify and kind of merge with the intense band over Boston and the heavy band towards the Merrimack Valley and really soak the region the next 2-3 hrs.

    1. Do you mind my asking if you are home or at work? Home is darn near due south of me, and often we seem to be next in line for what you are experiencing

  23. The fantastic rain rate only lasted a few minutes.
    It has settled down to an hourly rate of .25 to .35 inch
    per hour. Nice steady rain.

    total since midnight up to 1.13 inch.

  26. I am just at 1 inch and raining in this band at .34 per hour. Looks like HRRR is handling this well. I have one heavy band still coming up from the south coast after this one.

  27. Now that we are approaching 11, do you have an idea for the timing for the storm’s departure?

  28. Hopefully Elsa will be just about outta here by the time I leave work (3:00p).

    I was actually pleasantly surprised waking up early this morning with not much happening. I was planning to call a taxi but took my usual T bus. I didn’t even need my umbrella. Last night, I was expecting heavy rains and roaring winds to greet my day.

    Downpours now but no wind as of yet.

    1. Same here as I left the house shortly after 3 Am but Tk said that was expected to be that way .

      1. Fun, isn’t it. I like watching the rain rate. It is varying all over the place.

        up to 1.80 inch with current rate at .36 inch per hour.

  31. Rain totals South Sutton so far

    12:00-8:55 am……0.95
    8:55-9:40am …….1.57
    9:40-10.03am……1.81
    10:03-11:30……..2.58

    1. Are those cumulative totals or the totals as of the end
      of the time periods? Kind of confusing. I presume you mean
      at 11:30 you have received a total of 2.58 inches
      and not 2.58 inches between 10:03and 11:30. 🙂

      1. Good point. The reading at the end of the time period. I had originally just had the time and should have left it that way. Thanks. And your assumption is correct

  32. Thanks, TK!

    1.19″ thus far.
    I have my scanner on and reports of falling trees and downed powerlines have started to come in during the last 30 minutes.

      1. A gust or two, but nothing to write home about. The winds from TS Isaias were a lot more ferocious last August.

        Pouring again right now.

  34. One more band trying to come together and slowly strengthen from Providence southeastward to the western tip of Martha´s Vineyard ??? On eastern edge of the circulation.

  36. Everything right on track as of noon.
    No surprises.

    Areas of flooding the greatest issue with the passage of Elsa. Vastly improved by late day.

  38. Daughter cancelled her morning lessons in Millis. Barn manager called to let her know you couldn’t hear anything in the indoor arena because of metal roof. Glad she is not driving back and forth in this.

  39. I’m treading water, almost literally. So far, the rain total here is not quite what it was last week on Thursday and Saturday. There have been a few breaks in the very heavy rain. Still, there’s more to come. Does look like the system is hauling. That may save me. Plus, I’m a fairly good swimmer in case things get really bad.

    2. Oh boy. Love that you have a sense of humor in the middle of a huge mess. So so sorry, Joshua

  42. Now I got sunshine out where I am and thankfully the rain has stopped. Some parts of CT got close to if not over 5 inches of rain.

    1. Phew. A ton of rain. Do you have wind? Looks as if it is pulling away in this direction. Wonder how SC did

  44. This is fun! I now live on the 15th floor of 1 Franklin and this building is incredibly solid and the windows great for fireworks and storm viewing 🙂

    Joshua – I think we are newly neighbors! We should grab java!

    I still would love to host this group for a get together sometime post covid – we have a function room here at the tower that I can rent just for a modest cleaning fee (everyone can order food a la carte off the building menu so no huge cost for me) and as I just come here and reap your collective wisdom and have really nothing to offer of substance myself – Lol! – I’ll at least try to host a get together when everyone feels safe again.

    In the meantime this viewing gallery of mine is so fun! As of 1:04 in downtown crossing intense but not overpowering rain right now.

    1. How fun. I was jealous when you said you viewed the fireworks from your window. A get together would be great fun too. Mac’s radiation oncologist from MGH (I always considered her Mac’s angel) lives in that area also. She would often tell us of walking across the street to the garden with her Great Danes, etc. I was fascinated.

  46. Lots of flooding occurring in and around Coventry. Driving into work, I passed several portions of road partially or completely under water. My road washed out about a half mile east of my house due to a failed culvert. Rte 44 down the hill from me was also flooded and being rerouted.

    We got a whopping 4.4″ of rain since midnight and 5.28″ of rain total. 7.41″ on the week and over a foot rain now in the last two weeks. Enough already!

    1. I suspect the Drought Monitor Map won’t be showing any of those “fall-like” colors anytime soon.

      1. I am wondering if I will get another round of thunderstorms this evening. Sun is out and the atmosphere is destabilizing. SPC has my area in the marginal risk. This has not been a boring week of weather.

  50. Back edge of the rain just pulling away now. I would have answered you sooner Vicki, but we lost power for about 2 hours. A small tree toppled onto the wires in front of my neighbor’s house and tripped the breakers. We have power back now once the crews removed the tree and reset the breakers. We received a good amount, my rain gauge measured 1.70” for the last 24 hours. I’m not sure that is accurate though because my weather station has been acting funny lately. The dew point readings have been way off and it doesn’t seem to record the rainfall properly lately, as it was down pouring and the rain rates seemed way too low and wasn’t registering the rain amounts according to the intensity that I was seeing. It has done this during the last few thunderstorms we had. I’m going to see if it needs both a firmware and software update. I do keep on on those so I’m thinking it just may be it’s age, it’s going on 14 years old. Mark and Vicki your the closest to me what was your totals for the last 24 hours?

    1. SC-See my post above. We are pushing 5.5” of rain in the last 24 hours with all but an inch of that falling since midnight.

      Sun finally breaking out now!

    1. That Navy model has always been a piece of crap. Someone at the old office in the 1990s used to swear by it. His forecasts reflected that. 😉

  53. For those asking about the drought situation, we have been out of a drought here for several weeks now.

  54. Thanks mark, that is a ton of rain. I’m looking around at other stations near me and I’m definitely low. Need to figure this out.

  55. In all my years of living in the Boston area, I’ve never experienced as much rain in summer as we’ve had in the past week. Also, we’ve had only 1 rain-free day since June 29th. That’s rather incredible this time of year. And it sure looks like it may rain a little tomorrow. Sunday does look like it could be rain-free, but who knows what the atmosphere has in store. When it wants to rain, it will rain.

    I’m disappointed that we’ve gotten so much precipitation now and not during the winter. Not saying this would translate into massive amounts of snow. Dynamics are different, etc … But still, it will kind of stink when we go through a dry spell in December and January. Oh well, there’s literally nothing we can do about it, which is sort of why I find weather fascinating. So many things in life we have some control over. With respect to weather we don’t, and yet it does impact our lives all the time and its variability keeps us on our toes, or in my case in my swimsuit with an ark and animals ready to go.

    1. We got parked under a heavy band for awhile. The NWS must think my report of 4.4″ is an erroneous outlier because they left it off the latest public information statement!

  57. 3.20 inches here in JP.

    10.23 inches for the month of July. Pretty soggy around these parts.

    As much as I wanted the Charles River to be high for my favorite fishing spots, This is too high.

  59. One more round of storms in the wee hours tomorrow morning (12-3 am?).

    TK – When do we see some consistent dry times? It seems to rain all next week.

    1. It’s not going to rain all of next week, but we do remain in the active pattern described by myself & WxWatcher recently. As for a flip to a dry one, not too soon. But there are hints at “less active” in my 11-15 day outlook.

      1. As long as it’s hot & sunny the last full week of July starting on 7/23 for Hampton beach

  61. From a recent Eric Fisher tweet, he has a table listing Boston´s wettest July´s.

    I noticed #2 on the list was: ……. 1938, with 9.46 inches.

    1938 …………..

      1. Indeed. My folks were born in 1935 and 1936 respectively, I have asked them if they remember anything, but understandably, they were too young to do so. My grandparents had all passed before I knew enough about the hurricane to ask them.

      1. It’s just a coincidence, not an omen. 🙂

        1921 was wetter but nobody’s talking about that one. 😉

    1. The air mass change doesn’t take place until a boundary moves through tomorrow morning. And even still, this thing is not pulling in a ton of dry air either.

  63. It’s pretty remarkable that on July 9th Boston’s already having the 6th wettest July. Pretty sure Boston’s going to at least move up several notches and perhaps challenge for 2nd place, although first place (1938) is a long shot.

    1. We’ll see where they land.

      At least we know there’s no distinct correlation between a wet July and a major hurricane later in the season. 😉 It having happened once doesn’t make it a correlation at all.

      2. Looks like Boston had 4 separate events that contributed to July, 1921 being so wet:

        7/1-2 1.54″
        7/9-10 6.04″
        7/19-21 2.26″
        7/28-29 1.51″

        I looked into the July 9-10 event a little more. It was localized to eastern Mass, so likely some sort of offshore extratropical system:

        6.84″ Taunton
        6.30″ Hingham
        6.04″ Boston
        4.60″ Blue Hill
        4.54″ Fall River
        4.27″ Concord
        4.02″ New Bedford
        3.99″ Somerset
        3.64″ Hyannis
        3.61″ Rockport
        2.95″ Pawtucket
        2.80″ Provincetown
        2.63″ Bedford
        2.58″ Providence
        2.15″ Fitchburg
        2.14″ Chestnut Hill
        2.10″ Spot Pond (Stoneham)
        1.92″ Lowell
        1.76″ Framingham
        1.31″ Westborough
        1.14″ Haverhill
        0.87″ Bristol, RI
        0.67″ Worcester

  65. 2.01” at Logan. Very much on the low end of the forecasted amounts. Fine with me as there is some water in my basement. Everything is ok though, no issues with the oil burner. The drain is doing it’s job you might say. Whew! 🙂

    1. Nothing.
      No storms came close.
      In fact, there were only 7 storms the entire season in the Atlantic Basin. As I stated, there is no correlation between a wet July and individual tropical systems later in the season. It just doesn’t work like that. 🙂

    2. The other reply was to your question just above. Yes, some areas came in on the low side, some exceeded the expected range, but most locations fell within expected ranges.

  67. Thanks, SAK and TK for letting us know about the 1921 rain totals. My goodness, that is a lot of rain. So, I think that it’s highly unlikely this July will be wetter than 1921 or 1938. Time will tell.

      2. UNCLE. I cleaned off tables and took potted plants out from under cover

        On the positive news front. TONS of lightning bugs tonight

  70. From last July when we couldn’t buy a rain drop to now this July were saying turn off the faucet mother nature.

  71. Blackstone river has several flood warned areas. One is a few miles down the street from me in Northbridge. It runs right behind sons house but there is a canal between it and his property. Fingers crossed

  72. Incredible. Another 1.4” from the deluge tonight here in Coventry CT for a ridiculous total of 5.74” on the day. 8.75” in the rain gauge now since Saturday and nearly 13” in the last two weeks.

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