Saturday July 10 2021 Forecast (9:36AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JULY 10-14)

A so-so, not-too-bad weekend, especially compared to some of our recent weather, is what we’ll have. We still have a trough of low pressure moving through the New England area that will be flattening out and moving away later, and a surface boundary that is still making its way through the region from northwest to southeast. The day starts with lots of clouds and there is a swath of showers from central MA into southeastern NH and a few more showers and thunderstorms near Cape Cod and the Islands as of mid morning. These will all diminish as they move east northeastward, and as we get into more sun during the day the atmosphere remains just unstable enough for a few more pop up showers, favoring areas south of I-90 and especially the South Coast region. Finally, tonight and a good part of Sunday will feature quiet weather as a weak area of high pressure moves across the region. But a warm front will start to approach from the south later Sunday so that we’ll already be back in the clouds and there may be some areas of light rain around by evening. This weekend set-up does allow most areas to salvage most of the time rain-free, even if temperatures are running slightly below seasonal averages. Better than nothing. But we’re not done with the unsettled pattern quite yet, and Monday is going to make that very well known with more wet weather as that warm front moves ever-so-slowly northward into our region. It may take this front until sometime Tuesday or even Wednesday to fully pass through, although the support for rainfall will drop off as we get to those days, so expect a variable amount of cloudiness and some chance of shower activity, with a gradual warming trend to be taking place.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Morning showers central MA to southeastern NH diminishing as they move eastward. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mid morning and again this afternoon south of I-90 especially South Coast. Highs 73-80. Dew point middle to lower 60s. Wind N shifting to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog forming over interior lower elevations. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 interior. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Highs 68-75. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and a possible thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 70-77. Dew point 60s. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60s. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 15-19)

The general pattern will feature more westerly flow aloft and southwesterly flow at the surface, but a series of disturbances will approach from the west. This pattern features warm to borderline hot weather, higher humidity, and daily opportunities for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Day-to-day details can’t be known in this pattern too far in advance.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 20-24)

A similar pattern may continue but with a slightly lesser chance of showers and thunderstorms day to day. Low confidence and a lot of re-evaluation to come for these days.

41 thoughts on “Saturday July 10 2021 Forecast (9:36AM)”

  5. Thanks TK. Looks like some of the models are favoring northern MA and southern VT and NH for the rain Mon-Tues with much lower amounts south of the Mass Pike. What are your thoughts on areas getting to most with the warm front?

    1. I’m not trusting guidance yet on this thing. I have seen some interesting output from some of these. I’d have to lean a bit north, but not convinced. Hope to have that nailed down by tomorrow’s update.

  6. Thanks for all you do here TK!

    As the showers are passing through our area in Lunenburg, the temperature at our house is the same as atop Mt. Washington – 60F.

      1. Wow it’s -60! I knew what you meant. If you pay close attention, it’s a hyphen (or a dash), not a negative symbol. 🙂 Funny though.

  7. Thank you, TK.

    Definitely had more rain last night. Not heavy, but it was steady for a while.

    From the way it looks outside wouldn’t be surprised if a few light rain showers popped up at some point. Heck, let’s start going for the record at this point.

  8. Thanks, TK…

    Local history buff that I am, I looked up the July 9-10, 1921 event in the archived editions of the Mansfield NEWS, my hometown newspaper. From what I understand, that two-day rain event was the result of thunderstorms. There were reports of houses struck by lightning and many roads were washed out.

    I googled the same and found this wonderful report on a long-lived derecho days before in Indiana.

    https://www.wlfi.com/content/news/THE-JULY-5-1921-SERIAL-DERECHO-487339351.html

    I wonder if that Midwestern event and the July 9-10 event here were connected.

    Ironically, the July 9-10, 1921 storm was EXACTLY 100 years ago today!!!! 🙂

    Thanks, SAK, for your notes on a very rainy July, 1921!

  10. Thanks TK.

    In case anyone missed my post at the end of the last blog, we got hammered with more storms and torrential downpours last night that dumped another 1.4” of rain. That brought our total to 5.76” on the day. We now have 8.77” in the rain gauge just since Saturday. Nuts!

    TK, we are headed to Nantucket tomorrow night and are going to be there until Friday AM. What are your thoughts on the weather there this week? Does most of the action stay north and west of there? Monday looks unsettled but do I see some hope for improvement on Tuesday, and especially Wednesday and Thursday?

    REPLY

  12. I know the location of Monday’s rain is up in the air – so to speak – but do you have an idea on how much rain we are talking about? Thanks.

  13. Joshua:

    I hope you can forget about the recent hassles of flooding and enjoy the finals of Copa America (tonight at 8 pm) and the Euros (tomorrow at 3).

    I am a huge Messi fan and I hope Argentina can pull a win tonight. Messi is 0-for-9 in major tournaments for Argentina. He needs a win for his country to cement his legacy.

    Tomorrow’s England-Italy final is compelling. England is in a major trophy drought, going back to the 1966 World Cup. Playing at a nearly-full Wembley is a huge advantage!

    Enjoy!

  14. Thanks TK.

    This day in weather history goes back to 1989 the northeastern tornado outbreak. It was my first weather memory. I was five at the time. The tornado came in around 5pm knocked the tree down in the front yard. My mom and I were home when this happened. The strongest tornado of the outbreak happened in Hamden CT where an F4 struck. For my life this is the benchmark for severe weather outbreaks here in the northeast.

  16. Captain, I love Messi, too. He’s a unique talent. Neymar is very good, but man does he flop and is so into theatrics. Also, Brazil’s squad isn’t that great.

    I’ll miss tomorrow’s Euro final as I’ll be doing a bike trip. Definitely rooting for England, as I’m sure my daughter is, too, from her flat in London (Highgate; she’s about a mile or so from 3 major stadiums, including Arsenal and Tottenham).

    Survived the biblical rains so far, by the way. I do hope the excavators can get to the bottom of it, literally, next week.

  17. Mark, enjoy your stay on the lovely island of Nantucket. Haven’t been there in 3 years. I may go in late August. What I love about the island is it’s never too hot. Also love biking around it. So doable, with nice bike paths everywhere.

    1. Indeed! I love the bike trails and that you can stay in town and pretty much walk to everything. We are not even bringing our car, just the bikes. Hence my concern and question to TK above about the weather. I can deal getting around in some showers from time to time, but hoping we end up more dry than wet and things improve after Monday.

  20. If I were to list biggest weather days in my life this would top my list. March 1993 superstorm, Blizzard of 96, April Fools Storm of 97 Presidents Day Storm of 2003 Springfield Tornado 2011 Irene 2011 Sandy 2012 Blizzard of 2013 Tornado that just missed me to the south May 2018 are others that come to my mind.

  21. JPD, love the humorous sign.

    JJ, my top 3 weather events: 1. April Fool’s blizzard; 2. February 1978 blizzard; 3. January 1990 hurricane-force wind storm Netherlands

  22. What would you say is your first major weather event that you experienced? As I said this day 32 years ago is mine.

    1. Hurricane Carol, 1954. I was also five. I’ve told the story here before. But we were at Humarock and my dad had gone to work thinking since Carol was in NC that he’d be back before she arrived.

      I remember sitting at the kitchen table with my brother in his high chair and the ocean coming in on the floor. My mom went next door to call since we didn’t have a phone. A friend in the area came and got us and took us to his house. We could look down on Humarock harbor at the boats..,including his….sinking

      February 1978 also December 9, 1978

    2. I vaguely remember the 100-hour snow event in late February 1969. I suppose the February 1978 Blizzard that I remember real well years later. 🙂

    3. The “Buffalo Stance” tornado outbreak in New England JJ. I call it that because I was chasing in eastern New England that day. I couldn’t chase further west, but my friend did, and was in some of those CT storms, but I heard that song “Buffalo Stance” on the radio a bunch of times while I was driving around. Overplayed top 40 hit at the time.

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