Monday July 12 2021 Forecast (7:29AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JULY 12-16)

The overall pattern doesn’t change as it remains active, but the direct impacts on our region will bring a shift from wet and cool weather to more classic summertime weather over the course of the next several days. Initially, we are wet and cool today as a frontal boundary sits near the South Coast today with a wave of low pressure moving along it in response to a passing disturbance aloft. This will produce widespread showers, some heavy, including the risk of thunderstorms, although the immediate South Coast may have to wait a while to get into that rainfall while other areas are wettest this morning with a drying trend this afternoon as the disturbance exits. A subtle push southward of high pressure to the north will be enough to nudge that frontal boundary a bit further south tonight into Tuesday, which will be a mainly cloudy but mostly rain-free period of time for the region. Just a patch of drizzle may visit a few locations Tuesday in response to a broad onshore flow from the east, bringing in some low level moisture. After this, things start to change as high pressure riding starts to build in and a surface high to the south pushes that frontal boundary back to the north. A round of light rain or showers may occur Tuesday night or early Wednesday along the boundary as it pushes through, and Wednesday itself will be the day we transition into a warmer and more humid air mass, but a disturbance coming along from the west may trigger additional showers and thunderstorms, with timing somewhat uncertain and coverage also uncertain, as it will be at least partially dependent on how much sunshine and resultant solar heating we get to help destabilize the atmosphere. So that will be something to watch and fine-tune for Wednesday’s forecast. Thursday and Friday look like more classic mid summer days for us, very warm to hot with higher humidity and the opportunity for isolated to scattered late-day showers and thunderstorms, but many areas rain-free most of if not all of the time.

TODAY: Cloudy. Numerous to widespread showers with possible thunder through midday, tapering to just isolated light showers this afternoon but heavier showers may occur South Coast region through mid afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 66-73, coolest NH Seacoast, warmest South Coast of MA & RI. Dew point middle to upper 60s except near 70 South Coast. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH except SE to S nearer the South Coast.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Spotty light drizzle possible. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point lowering to upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind E to NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Spotty light drizzle possible. Areas of fog in the morning. Highs 65-72. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog forming. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and areas of fog early to mid morning. Partly sunny late morning through midday. Variably cloudy afternoon with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Dew point rising to upper 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated late-day showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 83-90 except cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs 84-91 except cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 17-21)

Large scale pattern is still somewhat active with a westerly flow and embedded disturbances. With some heat and humidity in place and a trough and frontal system approaching and passing through from west to east sometime during the July 17-18 weekend there will be an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms at some point, favoring later Saturday and Sunday, but to be fine-tuned as we go through this week. Slightly quieter weather for a couple days behind the passage of that system with near to above normal temperatures but shower/storm threat may return before the period is over depending on the timing of the next disturbance.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 22-26)

Similar pattern, but a little less active overall, still producing a shower and storm threat from time to time especially early and again toward the end of the period.

62 thoughts on “Monday July 12 2021 Forecast (7:29AM)”

  6. 1.35 inches since last evening. Still raining pretty hard
    at 1.09 inch per hour.

    Will it ever end.

    11.82 inches on the month so far.

    I still think Logan’s rain gauge is wacked.

    Who’s building the ark?

  7. I saw a report on Face Book that Death Valley broke their record
    high with a new reading of 135. I cannot confirm that, so I suspect it was NOT an official reading.

    2. I have a feeling with the way it’s going Hampton the last week of July will do ( what else, RAIN!!!!! This sucks .

  9. Thank you, TK.

    Well, it looks like the 1921 record is in jeopardy. The remarkable thing is it’s only July 12th! And, we’re not really breaking the record with T-storms. Most of these are straightforward rain events.

    Last year gardens suffered from lack of rain. This year they’re getting way too much and not enough sun. It’s going to do a number on some vegetables. I visited two community gardens yesterday. Way, way over-saturated. Problem is that between the rain storms there’s been precious little sun to both dry things out and help the vegetation grow properly.

  14. Thanks, TK!
    Good morning!

    We are at 1.71 since midnight with .99″ around 4:30 and another .56″ in 20 minutes at 8:45!!!!

    8.39″ in July and we’re not even halfway through the month!!!!

    9.37″ in July, 1921.

  15. Somehow the word “disturbance” in reference to an area of low pressure is disturbingly familiar these days, as in a daily occurrence. It’s disturbing!

  16. Thanks TK.

    70 degrees, mild, muggy and foggy here in Nantucket but DRY other than a very fine mist in the air. The airport has recorded no rain so far.

  17. 7 day forecasts from around the dial: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E6GowFAWYAY3_BA?format=jpg&name=large

    Channel 25’s website has been broken and they’ve been displaying the forecast from 6/3 for over a month now. And they refuse to do the 7 day forecasts for the web exclusive weather broadcast. So I have to make sure I get it as it is aired live. Not through the live stream broadcast on their website or app mind you – that’s broken, too. lol

      1. Just an affiliate – not owned by Fox! They used to be but haven’t been since 2014 (that’s why they aren’t known as fox boston anymore.)

    2. Ch 25 doesn’t even do a full weather cast on their 11:00 p.m. news except once in a while a full weather cast is the very first thing they do. If they don’t then they split it up into about four segments where they show one, two, or three maps and then go to something else like a commercial or news. There’s no cohesiveness whatsoever and you cannot get a full weathercast out of them. I don’t know whose decision that was, but it was a horrendous decision. I feel bad for Kevin L. and the rest of the team. I just cannot watch them.

  19. I have heard back from all the local meteorologists I emailed. I have been waiting to,see if I hear back from NWS. Does anyone have a better email address than writing to its webmaster?

  20. Can’t put lip stick, perfume, or men’s cologne on this weather. It really sucks. I wasn’t here in the summers of 1987, and 1989 through 1994. So, I don’t know about those summers. But, other than July 1988 I’ve just never experienced such dismal summer weather in Boston. And in July 1988 it wasn’t dismal all the time. Now, it pretty much is. Even the `good’ days are really cloudy, murky, and dark. It’s darker now than it is in December, quite frankly. At least then we had plenty of days of full sunshine and blue skies.

  21. Mostly sunny and 79 now here in Nantucket with a heat index of 82. Wasn’t expecting this. We rode our bikes to surfside beach today and didn’t even wear our bathing suits as it was a bit foggy when we left town. Now I am regretting it!

    Good call TK on the lack of rain and Tom as well with your premonition we might get into the warm sector today. There is actually a heat advisory in effect down WxW’s way in NJ and we are on the northern fringe of that air mass. Amazing on how the weather down here can vary so significantly from the rest of SNE sometimes.

      1. Shit, I spoke too soon. Turning dark and a storm just popped up to our west. Heading our way. I think we are going to need to find cover!

  23. TK, how has the CFS been lately. Looks like it isn’t as wet going out later in July and early August with some Canadian highs mixed in there too coming this way.

  24. Thank you TK!

    Tk, do you have a feel what the weather maybe like this coming weekend and early next week in North Conway? Trying to plan a spontaneous weekend to get away.

    Thanks Again,
    Tj

  25. Typical mid July weather in Virginia this week when I am vacationing. Highs in the low to mid 90s feeling like near 100. Looks like I might miss some thunderstorm action on Wednesday.

  26. In spite of all the rain ……

    Not too many days from now, there seems to be general agreement of a big 500 mb ridge developing in the northern plains/northern intermountain west, extending into the southern third of the central Canada territories. Big heat, 90s-100s in those areas.

    Probably a downstream small trof to protect us initially.

    Climatologically, these ridges, I think tend to retrograde west and an even stronger trof develops in eastern Canada into the northeast.

    Something to keep an eye on. I’m confident in a big bubble of heat in central Canada in about a week. IF the jet stream temporarily flattens a bit from that pattern, there can be a 1-2 day blast of high heat in the northeast in about 8-10 days.

    1. I leave for Hampton on 7/23 – 8/1 I’m begging for hot dry summertime heat for the beach

    1. The lightning deaths at this and similar locations in India have been an issue for decades. Either their version of the weather service doesn’t educate, or people don’t listen to warnings there. It’s pretty sad. It’s not like monsoon season is new and it’s not like the thunderstorms they get there during monsoon season don’t contain lightning. Most of those deaths are preventable.

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