Wednesday July 14 2021 Forecast (7:46AM)

71 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 14-18)

We take one more step toward a more classic summer feel today but we’re not quite there yet. After a fairly overcast day with a few showers moving through yesterday, last night we saw the formation of fog in much of the region as the temperature which was already on the cooler side met a rising dew point. Today, they both rise further, and it’ll be tough to break up both the fog and the cloud cover, but while many areas do eventually lose the fog as the temperature out-rises the dew point, the dew point will climb high enough so that you’ll notice it. What happens during the day today to our west is that a disturbance moving eastward will trigger some pretty decent thunderstorms, which will make it into western portions of the WHW forecast area later today into this evening. What happens from there is dependent on how much daytime heating we can manage further east. Glancing at the short range set of models, I see a variety of outcomes, with some of them killing the convection completely while others hold onto scattered but weaker showers/storms as they move eastward. I’m basically playing this in the middle today with the chance of some scattered to isolated activity making it all the way east, but in much weaker form than it started out. Finally we get back into the typical feel of summer for Thursday through Saturday as high pressure builds offshore and aloft as well, setting up warm to hot and fairly humid conditions, though a westerly breeze (vs. southerly today) may help dry us out slightly on Thursday, at least in terms of the dew point going down a bit. It may not be that noticeable as it will be warmer / hotter. The dew point creeps back up Friday into Saturday, not to astronomical levels, but certainly humid enough. I’m not thinking the chances of isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms are really there at all Thursday, as I was yesterday, but keeping them in the forecast for Friday, again very low coverage. Saturday, as a cold front approaches, the chance of showers and storms increase. That front is likely to struggle its way through the region during Sunday, which will be unsettled with additional showers and storms around as it stands now…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog especially this morning. Highs 76-83, cooler Cape Cod. Dew upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S increasing to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing evening shower or thunderstorm possible, mainly north and west of Boston and especially west of I-95. Patchy fog redeveloping. Lows 65-72. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH, could be briefly gusty near any showers/storms.

THURSDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 83-90. Dew point middle 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs 84-91 except cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog late. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 82-89. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog mostly in the morning. Highs 78-85. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 19-23)

A few days of mainly dry weather are expected with a westerly air flow aloft and high pressure in control at the surface for the early to mid portion of next week before the next frontal system brings higher humidity and a shower/thunderstorm threat after that.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 24-28)

The trend to less active weather in terms of shower and storm threats, still present but less prominent with overall drier with mostly seasonable summer warmth, maybe a hotter day or two.

71 thoughts on “Wednesday July 14 2021 Forecast (7:46AM)”

  4. Thank you TK.

    Can you give me any idea how Conway NH might be like Saturday-Monday? Rainy?

    Thank you
    Tj

    1. I agree. However, given the productive wet pattern, this is probably one time we get more sun to increase the instability more than expected and thus, get the storms further east with more rain.

  11. Thanks, TK.

    I’ll be heading into that “yellow” area later on — here’s hoping the drive won’t be terrible…

  12. Thanks TK. Looks like the interior has the best shot at an isolated strong to severe storm.

  13. Sak your comment earlier on weekend washout could you explain please as I’m not sure if you saw my reply , many thanks . And thank you Tk

    1. Big picture SSK is that with a lot of tropical humidity and a disturbance/front around to provide lift, the chances of encountering showers/storms this weekend are high. Whether it will be a washout, ie, a continuous hour after hour steady rain, I don´t know.

    2. He just basically meant that both of those models were agreeing on a significant amount of rain over the weekend..

      Although by the term washout it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s going to rain the entire weekend, assuming the model forecast is reasonably accurate.

    1. Have fun. Have climbed it twice, once in clear weather and once in fog and rain. You are wise to choose nicer weather.

    3. Nice. Son has climbed several times. I drove to top years ago ..does that count? 😉

      It was in a standard if that helps 🙂

  15. Not going too complain, but was hoping this emergence-from-COVID summer would deliver us great weather. Alas, we’ve had rain 12 of the first 14 days of July. Gotta take the bad with the good.

  17. Tj…

    While it will be impossible to time individual showers and thunderstorms I think there’s at least a 50 to 60% chance of them on Saturday, a greater than 70% chance of them on Sunday, and then the activity should drop off by Monday.

    1. Thank you Tk.

      We are heading up. I just didn’t know if it was going to be raining all day but we can deal with thunderstorms and some showers.

      Thanks Again

  18. Thanks TK.

    Looking forward to days 11-15 (sort of). Ideally I would like to see several days of fresh Canadian air masses, but as long as the pattern becomes LESS active, albeit hot, I’ll take what we can get.

  20. 74 with 71 DP. Daughter said you can literally feel the air getting thicker.

    My ac is typically 76 and I rarely Adjust it. I’ve had it 73-74 throughout this and am constantly playing with it to get the wet out.

      1. Ok, thank you. Next few days likely to by uncomfortable for you. It is cool in the whole house so far.

  21. Little or no change from the SPC

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/cwa/images/BOX_swody1.png

    discussion from Norton NWS office

    The larger focus then turns to the potential for strong to
    severe t-storms, centered around mid-afternoon to early evening
    (roughly 3 PM to 10 PM). Definitely is not an ideal pre-
    convective setup with ongoing overcast, how soon that overcast
    begins to scatter out, and what role if any the early-morning
    convection may play in terms of leftover boundaries. So, a
    number of uncertainties exist. This all said, dewpoints surge
    into the low to mid 70s this afternoon as the warm front lifts
    to our NE. Most models also suggest greater west-to- east cloud
    breaks between 17-21z that will allow for sfc-based
    destabilization to occur. Sufficient heating and mid-level
    lapse rates around 6-6.5 C/km, NAM-based MLCAPEs are in the
    2000-2500 J/kg range. We`ll then await the shortwave trough
    aloft to strengthen mid/upper level winds, and a surface
    trough/wind shift. Appears likely this wind shift boundary will
    fire convection soonest in central NY by early afternoon, then
    advancing east toward our far western counties between 3-5 PM.
    There`s differences across CAMs in terms of the net storm
    coverage, especially if any lead cells can develop before the
    wind shift boundary approaches. But the overall idea is that a
    line of storms to move through interior New England toward the
    Boston- Providence corridors between 6-10 PM. Storms should
    weaken quickly as they ingest more stable maritime air across SE
    MA and southern RI. Storms should be primarily capable of gusty
    to locally damaging straight line winds, but given the
    magnitude of instability and stronger upper-level winds a
    secondary risk for hail is possible too. With high moisture
    levels, brief torrential rains possible, but not thinking
    flooding is a significant risk as storms should be moving along.
    Added gusty winds, small hail and heavy rain wording to the
    grids. Coordination with surrounding offices and SPC resulted in
    raising the severe risk level to Slight/15% severe across our
    northern and western MA counties, with Marginal/5% severe then
    southeastward to I-95 including much of eastern coastal MA.

  22. Flooding, misery, and even several deaths in Southeastern Netherlands, and I’m sure areas of Germany, Luxembourg, and Belgium as well. https://nos.nl/video/2389320-wateroverlast-in-beeld-zo-gaat-het-er-aan-toe-in-limburg

    Longshot, enjoy the hike up Mt. Washington. Make sure your hiking boots have good grip. Even though it hasn’t been as wet up there as it has here, you’ll encounter slipper spots on the rocks. I’ve climbed the mountain at least 20 times, and have gone up all the trails leading up to the summit: In fog, freezing fog (in July 1997), sunshine, light rain, and extremely windy conditions (1988).

    1. Certainly feel it. Just did my 6 mile run and it (high DP) knocks the %$#& out of me. In September, on the first really cool and crisp morning I cry tears of joy when I go out for my run. Happens every year.

  24. Thanks, TK!

    With the early heat and now the rainy and wet conditions, the threat of EEE and WNV for the late summer and fall are greatly increased. Middleborough has issues with EEE nearly every year.

    Diamond: Thanks for sharing about your experiences in Qatar last night. May I ask if you were there as part of the US military or did you work for a private contractor?

  25. Fitchburg up to 81F, Worcester 79F. Appears north of the Mass Pike, breaking up of clouds is making good eastward progress.

  26. Still overcast here in the city.

    I think the chances of getting a storm in here this evening
    lies somewhere between slim and none. 🙂

  28. CF is correct. West Nile, EEE, and other mosquito-borne illnesses will ramp up during the remainder of the summer. Also, this is the worst tick season in recent memory – yet another disease to be aware of, Lyme’s.

  29. The sun is beginning to break out here in the City.
    Too late for storm’s here? I think so. We shall see.

  30. On the beach, foggy, then not, then foggy, hot then cool

    Does cell in sw VT look like it’s part of a meso low ?

      1. MESO
        Mesocyclone- A storm-scale region of rotation, typically around 2-6 miles in diameter and often found in the right rear flank of a supercell (or often on the eastern, or front, flank of an HP storm). The circulation of a mesocyclone covers an area much larger than the tornado that may develop within it. Properly used, mesocyclone is a radar term; it is defined as a rotation signature appearing on Doppler radar that meets specific criteria for magnitude, vertical depth, and duration. It will appear as a yellow solid circle on the Doppler velocity products. Therefore, a mesocyclone should not be considered a visually-observable phenomenon (although visual evidence of rotation, such as curved inflow bands, may imply the presence of a mesocyclone)
        Mesoclimate
        The climate of a small area of the earth’s surface which may differ from the general climate of the district.
        Mesocyclone
        (abbrev. MESO)- A storm-scale region of rotation, typically around 2-6 miles in diameter and often found in the right rear flank of a supercell (or often on the eastern, or front, flank of an HP storm). The circulation of a mesocyclone covers an area much larger than the tornado that may develop within it. Properly used, mesocyclone is a radar term; it is defined as a rotation signature appearing on Doppler radar that meets specific criteria for magnitude, vertical depth, and duration. It will appear as a yellow solid circle on the Doppler velocity products. Therefore, a mesocyclone should not be considered a visually-observable phenomenon (although visual evidence of rotation, such as curved inflow bands, may imply the presence of a mesocyclone).
        Mesohigh

        1. Thank you very much. Shame on me for not checking myself and you had to do the work. But greatly appreciated.

          That would Not be good. Does it still look to be one?

  33. Thanks TK.

    Biked to Madaket Beach here in Nantucket and all I’ll say is that it is a warm fog today :). You can see the filtered sun and blue sky directly above but the visibility at the surface can’t be more than 200 yards. It’s sort of a surreal scene. Probably going to end up with a sneaky sunburn after this.

      1. Yes, Monday and today were actually nice beach days with perfect temps. You could feel the warmth of the filtered sun through the fog. Yesterday was downright cool and raw. I cant complain though. Other than the late PM downpour we got drenched in on Monday, it has been completely dry.

  35. Sun behind trees. On deck. Can’t see through fogging glasses. Deliberately ignoring something that shall not be discussed 😉

  39. Captain Fantastic:
    I served 25 years in the Air Force both active duty and Air National Guard. The last summer I spent in Qatar was in 2017 and was injured which required a career ending surgery. I had to medically retire in November 2019. I also spent time in Bahrain, UAE and as far west was Guam and many places in between. I enjoyed the time immensely!

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