Thursday July 15 2021 Forecast (7:41AM)

39 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 15-19)

Early this morning there are some patches of fog and stratus in valleys well inland, and in sections of southeastern NH and eastern MA, and if you’re under one of these you may be thinking “here we go again”, but today will be different. All of that low stuff will burn off during this morning and we’ll have a day much more full of sun than any we’ve seen in recent memory. Also, the dew point may come down a bit from yesterday, although it will warm beyond yesterday’s levels – so basically, the feel of summer is coming back! I do think today it will take place without anything more than the most remote chance of an isolated shower popping up somewhere, so remote that it’s not even showing up in my detailed forecast that follows this discussion. But that will change on Friday, not drastically, but enough to put it in the forecast as we see a cold front approaching from the west while some heat and humidity remain in place. I don’t think Friday’s activity will end up very widespread, but we will have to watch for some showers and storms to fire up and move into the region during the afternoon hours. Anything that forms will vanish by Friday evening, but that front will be nearby this coming weekend, and its exact placement will help determine where showers and thunderstorms occur. I’m not looking for a weekend wash-out by any stretch, but just note that we’ll be unsettled once again. This may linger into Monday depending on how far offshore that front is able to push – something that’s slightly indeterminable at this point…

TODAY: Areas of low clouds and fog until mid morning, then mostly sunny. Highs 83-90, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point middle 60s to near 70 early may trend downward slightly. Wind W up to 10 MPH but developing coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches forming. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs 84-91 except cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with some coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog late. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 82-89. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog mostly in the morning. Highs 78-85. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Possible showers. Patches of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 80-87. Dew point 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 20-24)

Some guidance is a little more emphatic about troughing and more unsettled weather during this period, and given the recent pattern my leaning is just to include a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms but plenty of dry time as well, and temperatures that don’t include excessive heat, but don’t fall all that far below normal either. More evaluation needed.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 25-29)

Pattern relaxation, westerly flow, a couple disturbances with shower and thunderstorm opportunities and mostly near normal though slightly variable temperatures.

39 thoughts on “Thursday July 15 2021 Forecast (7:41AM)”

        1. Sad.

          By the way, I have not seen a single gold finch this year. The thistle is blooming wonderfully. Thistle seed is their go-to meal. And this is the time that they’d be out and about, building nests, etc … They tend to have their young in August and even early September. Yet, I haven’t spotted any.

          1. We have tons of goldfinches. I’ll encourage some to head your way. They can go through my thistle feeder in a matter of a day or two. I love seeing them land a single blade of grass on the hill…..and it doesn’t bend.

            I have not seen butterflies. By now we usually have many at our big butterfly Bush.

  10. Seabreeze here as well. Creating an interesting sky.

    Cumulus clouds about the western third of the horizon.

    Clear directly overhead.

    Low, grey stratus hanging on the eastern horizon.

    Its certainly not hot, maybe not even warm, but its still humid as heck. Several miles inland in Pembroke and Hanover, its probably 5-8F warmer.

    Ocean water tends to be warmest on these kind of summer days.

  11. I interpret that the 12z GFS and 12z EURO came in more productive, in terms of rainfall, for this weekend.

    Still, not a washout, but definitely productive waves of showers and storms.

  13. Cloudy day with some light rain in Paris, France, but yesterday’s Bastille Day is always fun:

    French soldier (love the caps) proposes to his girlfriend on the Champs Elysees: https://twitter.com/LMPositif/status/1415232648637784064

    French jets (Mirage) overhead:
    https://twitter.com/soelvyra/status/1415238957974102020

    And then the singing of the Marseilleise. No wonder President Trump liked the parades in Paris (I do, too,; it may be the only thing Trump and I share in common!). It’s pomp and circumstance, and lots of nationalism, uniforms, and military. https://twitter.com/infofrance2/status/1415255471372607489

    1. Very interesting, Joshua. My Swedish NYC friend Who is visiting family in Sweden is now with friends in Paris.

  14. 16 degree difference between Logan & Norwood. That’s a pretty solid marine layer still.

    1. There’s just about that much difference between Logan and JP a distance of only 5 or 6 miles. We are probably a few degrees under Norwood.

  15. GFS is starting to show some consistency in its medium range forecast – looks like the pattern that I was thinking would be dominant for the summer may be ready to emerge, but I’m not convinced yet.

    Ridge interior West thru Plains. Trough Great Lakes & Northeast. Will keep an eye on the guidance trends as always.

  16. Vicki, great to know about the North American gold finches near you in Sutton. Love that bird, as well as so many North American birds. we’re very lucky to have such an assortment of colorful – tropical-looking – birds, from the oriole to the cardinal to the bluebird to the blue jay to so many others. Man, did I miss that when I lived in Northwestern Europe. Birds are really dull there.

    2. Thanks, Joshua. I’m a member of the FB page called wildlife of Worcester county. The species we have here takes my breath away. I never knew there were so many. We also have some phenomenal photographers out this way

  17. There is definitely some disagreement in the local media about the coming weekend…

    I had one channel on and the meteorologist there said “Saturday is looking like the better of the two weekend days.” I flipped to another channel and immediately heard another meteorologist say “Sunday is looking like the better of the two weekend days.”

    So which will it be?
    Right now I lean toward Saturday as being more unsettled than Sunday… But to be totally honest, I could see it going either way. This is where fine tuning comes into play in the short range.

  18. JPD I had never seen a bluebird till we moved here.

    We had a baby blue bird who apparently thought he was ready to leave the nest in our blue bird house. I saw him struggling to get out of our fenced veggie garden. He did not seem to have the wing power to get himself back in the bluebird house. He finally got to a nearby tree. The male and a juvenile from the last brood tried to show him what to do. It is fascinating that juveniles from the last brood return to help the parents raise the next brood. Daughter took the two photos below. First is the juvenile trying to feed the baby. The baby just squawked at him. Second is the dad feeding the baby successfully

    https://imgur.com/a/2I6zBgW

      1. Thank you all. Daughter and son have their dad’s talent. It sure didn’t come from me 😉

  20. When we got to the beach around 6pm or so, there was really no wind, the ocean was glass like and it was probably in the 70s.

    A few minutes before we left, we are standing at the water line and all of a sudden, we felt the warm breeze kick in. Turned around and the many flags were suddenly showing a SW breeze. Temp had to jump 5F or more instantly.

    1. Sniff. I remember this so many times. I miss your beautiful part of the world. I love how everyone uses the flags to see where the wind is coming from

  22. Diagnosis of the flooding is in. A broken T branch cast iron pipe on the other side of the building. Contractors suggests all drain pipes need to be replaced eventually as they’re all badly corroded. They’re also >100 years old. Total cost will wind up in the tens of thousands of dollars. To be divvied up among 12 unit owners, but still. I’m just hoping/praying they don’t have to rip up – demolish – any part of my unit to replace the pipes. The broken pipe is at the other end of the building, so that won’t be an issue for me. But the corroded pipes run the full length of the building.

    2. I’m glad they are making progress but…..Oh dear. Hopefully, it will be sorted out quickly

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