Saturday July 17 2021 Forecast (8:53AM)

74 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 17-21)

We will continue to be in an unsettled weather pattern over the next 5 days. This weekend, a frontal boundary starts out draped across southern New England generally in the vicinity of I-90. This frontal boundary will waver around this area today as a low pressure disturbance approaches from the west. This will help initiate shower and thunderstorm development with the best chance of thunderstorms near and south of the boundary but away from the immediate South Coast. The most widespread shower activity is likely to occur during this evening and tonight. After the low pressure wave goes by the front should be pulled a little further to the south on Sunday, which will still be an unsettled day with the threat of showers. This also lingers into Monday. And just in time for this system to get out of here comes the next one into the trough that sits over our area with additional shower and thunderstorm opportunities for Tuesday and Wednesday.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Dew point upper 60s to near 70. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, mostly N to E in areas north of I-90 and mostly SW in areas to the south.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog mostly in the morning. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Possible showers. Patches of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60s.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 72-79. Dew point 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind the variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 73-80. Dew point 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 22-26)

Continuing with the idea that keeps us in the general trough position but with a little bit drier tendency and temperatures near to slightly below normal. Thete will still be a couple disturbances we will have to watch for shower activity.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 27-31)

Expecting a similar pattern overall that may start to relax to a slightly warmer more zonal flow toward the end of the month.

74 thoughts on “Saturday July 17 2021 Forecast (8:53AM)”

  5. Thank you, TK.

    Quite remarkable how gloomy and rainy it’s been for the past ~3 weeks. I enjoyed a couple of days of sun this week, but July has been and continues to be about as gray as it can be. I remember July 2009. That was relatively gray and rainy. But it featured a lot more sun than this month has. And, I feel at this point that we will be pushing for record rainfall for the month. Almost inevitable, given the number of disturbances coming our way.

      1. Could indeed be true, TK, as it looks like the heavier rains in the coming days fall in the interior. Still, it’s a comparatively gray period, with solid rain chances almost every day this month, so far.

        Will say that the gray skies actually enhance the colors of flowers and birds in photographs. So, it’s been a nice stretch in terms of taking pictures. I’m trying to see this all in a positive light.

  6. Thank you, TK. I’ve been trying to BBQ chicken for two nights. May end up finishing it in the oven tonight rather than on the barbie.

  8. We had another 0.03 inch of rain overnight here.

    Just missing a shower now, then looks dry for a bit.
    We shall see how much rain falls overnight tonight.

    1. Guidance is all over the place regarding total rainfall for this weekend. For Eastern sections I would go with less rather than more.

  9. Thanks TK.

    Even if Boston doesn’t break the July rainfall record (11.69”) it’s probably a shoo-in for second place at least, whatever that amount is.

    What place is Logan in now? 3rd or 4th?

    1. Nothing is a shoe-in, in weather, until it actually happens.
      Technically, Boston could get ZERO for the rest of the month.

  10. I did my good deed today. Often on Saturday mornings I take a walk that takes me just under 1 hour, listening to the same set of songs that were originally recorded on a cassette tape in 1983 by my brother (the one who passed away in 1997). It started out with my teenage self carrying my “boom box” and listening to the soundtrack as I took my dog for a walk, taking breaks in the same areas each time, as many days were very hot that summer, even at 9 a.m. and she was part Husky and needed the shade breaks! Fast-forward to 2021 and I am still taking this walk. The dog has long since left us (she passed away at age 17 on July 16 1993), but she’s still “there” on my walks, and the schools I walk around have been been rebuilt but I adapted to those. Anyway, I started this walk today in sunshine knowing that the cluster of showers would clip us toward the end of my walk. With timing I figured I’d arrive home just as the shower arrived. I passed by the high school baseball field which had a game ongoing (not sure who, but not high school teams, as there are some summer leagues that use the field). A quick radar check and I told one of the umps that a rain shower would arrive in 10 to 15 minutes, enough to delay the game briefly, but not end it, as it would be out of there in about 10 minutes’ time.

    I arrived home just as the rain began 15 minutes later, probably 1 minute earlier at the field about 1/4 mile to my west. 😉

    15 minutes later, it’s now dry again. I hope they got to continue. 🙂

    1. That is the shower that passed just to my North. Almost was clipped by the Southern end of it, but did not. 🙂

  12. 12z NAM is quite unimpressive for rain totals at Logan. However, this is dependent on placement of convective precipitation on the run, which we know is almost as good as “random”.

    1. HRRR seems bullish of developing storms around Providence and then pushing them north late this afternoon.

  13. Agree that bulk of rain seems destined for central and western Mass. but wondered what total in eastern areas might be. Looks like the Charles in south Natick finally returned below flood levels.

    2. The Blackstone river has been high also but appears to be dropping. I’m not as familiar with it yet as I was the Sudbury. I know the deepest part of,the Blackstone is Northbridge which is just a matter of a few miles from my home.

        1. No. But that is close to me also. Don’t think the Blackstone goes thru it but may be very wrong. It also runs behind my sons home in RI

  14. HRRR has been ok lately – not great, not terrible, but better than it had been doing with some of our earlier events.

    I really try to look at all the guidance and especially with the short range models try to verify them based on how they initialize. When the radar is full of activity and the HRRR, for example, doesn’t have it, you know it’s not likely to resolve anything very well if it doesn’t know what it’s resolving. 😛

    A lot of what will drive the convection has to do with boundaries that don’t exist yet, because the convection creating those boundaries has not formed yet. So, as you see, it’s more than just “where is the surface front?”, “where is the disturbance?” etc. 🙂

  15. Hurricane Felicia, 1120 miles south southwest of Baja’s southern tip. 145 MPH sustained winds, yet hurricane force winds only extend 15 miles out from the center, and TS-force winds only about 45 miles out. Talk about COMPACT!

    This storm is peaking in intensity now and will die a cold-water death over the next 5 days as it moves west over open water.

    1. In part, yes. A little more sun south of the frontal boundary but away from the immediate South Coast results in the best opportunity for a stronger storm or two or three in that region.

  18. 80 and 71 DP in south sutton with a hint of a comfy breeze from the east. Soft blue, cloud dotted sky. Quite lovely.

    1. Best I can tell the actual frontal boundary is just south of you. The east wind pretty much indicates this to be the case. There is not a huge dew point shift right across the front. It’s probably very close by.

      I haven’t looked at any meso stuff too confirm this but just a guess.

        1. Once again, bright sunshine at your location does not necessarily mean you are in for it later at your location. In the unstable areas that I outlined previously, it enhances the chance of storm development there. So it’s something to keep an eye on. But I think the focus is about to start shifting to the west.

      2. Thanks, TK I was wondering. It is 84 now with a 72 DP but still an occasional and a tad cooler east wind. When the wind dies down, it feels as if there is a personal heat dome around you. It is quite fascinating

  24. Away from the immediate South Coast, mostly south of I-90. This is working out well today.

    I think the RI and adjacent MA storms are peaking out and we’re heading for a focus a little further west soon, then that clusters and moves northeastward as a more elevated convective conglomeration a bit later.

  25. We´re having our block party today, of course 🙂

    Storm about 8-10 miles west, looks to be weakening. Wonder if it will weaken to the point of escaping rain.

    Unmistakable cool seabreeze hopefully will help the cause.

  26. Torrential rain, wind and lightning for what seems like the umteeth day in a row in Coventry Ct.

    Lost one TV in a power surge last week and lost the water pump yesterday pm in another storm that blew up right over us after we got home from Nantucket.

    Up to 13.6” of rain now on the month of July and still two weeks to go! This is beyond ridiculous!!

    1. Oh my. JJ lost a TV a bit ago also. And my family thinks I’m nuts when I tell them to turn TV off.

      We have been warned here with those storms. Well….I got a warning in my devices but can’t see on the radar yet. Could be a lag

    2. Mark if you don’t mind. Is your home a new home? My SIL tells me that new homes are protected by whole house surge protectors so we cannot get surges inside. I still turn all off though

    2. Based on what I could glimpse from it you were catching moments where they stopped the radar beam from its normal rotation and were focusing on particular cells to gauge storm height.

      2. Also very interesting. I went back to it multiple times and just watched for a while…mesmerized

  28. By the way Vicki, you look like you have a very big storm near you, of which one part already hit Sutton and the main part is just to your west.

    I wonder what your rain total will be from it ?

    1. It is a big one. But rain is not the issue. More then thunder and lightning. So far just 0.03 rain since it began (4:15)

        1. Tom daughter and family are in Oxford and auburn ans flooding there is extreme.

          Sutton continues to be a tale of two cities. I’ll check Wunder stations in other areas

  30. Daughter said they just got following warning on car radio…not sure of its accuracy

    Just got a severe thunderstorm with 60 mph winds and 1/4” hail warning for northern Connecticut over the radio

  31. Had returned to neighborhood block party, but these storms are resilient.

    While the cells earlier fell apart, this one has been strengthening a bit, with developing lightning and thunder. I absolutely do not stay outside with lightning.

    1. Smart man. I’m surprised how many do. I don’t stay out as long as I can hear thunder. But so sad it is spoiling your block party

      1. Thanks. 🙂

        Oh, I´m about the only one who left, they are all out there, my wife included. I live by the ¨hear thunder roar, go indoors¨ saying.

        But, I am getting constant weather update requests. 🙂 🙂 🙂

        1. I am in your camp. To me there is no other good choice but I’m also alone for the most part here

  32. Vicki, to answer your earlier question, my house was built in 2006 so about 15 years old. It does not have a whole house surge protector though I may very well be looking into one now. The air compressor which was left plugged in in the garage isn’t working now either!

        1. Sure is. I believe same system went through my sons area in RI. Their yard flooded with some water in basement.

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