Yes, I do trust the Israeli data. They’re far more up to date than ours. CDC is often 3 weeks or more behind. By the way, there’s a Singapore study that more or less confirms the Israeli data. Talks about a 69% vaccine efficacy percentage.
Also, you sent another NYT article yesterday. I agreed with the gist of it. But I thought the messaging was off. It was a bit too `everything will be okay’ because the vaccine still works very well to prevent severe illness.
The drop in vaccine efficacy is worrisome, even if most of the decline impacts the chance of a fully vaccinated contracting the virus, NOT disease severity. It’s concerning because it means that vaccinated folks are getting breakthrough infections at an alarming rate and they are then capable of transmitting to others. It’s one thing the UK gets and we don’t. Their health minister is fully vaccinated yet came down with Covid-19. He has mild symptoms. But he is self-isolating with no contact with anyone for at least 10 days. The reason they do all that testing in the UK (3 times as much as we do) is precisely to prevent those who do test positive from transmitting to others, particularly those who are still vulnerable.
Finally, there was a report yesterday that of the ~2,000 Covid-19 related deaths in the U.S. last week, 75 were fully vaccinated people. That’s a very small percentage. But, it most definitely is NOT the <1% which Fauci and others continue to state. It's closer to 4% and probably rising a bit over time.
Thank you, Joshua. Macs family had a very dear friend who was a leading physician in Israel. I have probably said this before. I always had the sense that, as good as we are, he was a step or two ahead.
I don’t see a second NyT article from me yesterday so not sure which you are referring to. But I do understand your comment and agree as this seems to be the theme
Only reason I knew of Director Walensky‘s comments is that I began yesterday as I most often do…reading Heather Cox Richardson’s daily email. My stomach turned as I read. Not because of HRC, but because of what was being said by Walensky and a few others.
As I read through many of the over 4000 comments posted to that email, I noticed two things. One, folks are either ignoring the Rise in cases among fully vaccinated or content with saying it is so rare that there is no need for concern. These are left leaning individuals. Many seem to believe if vaccinated, life goes pretty much back to normal.
Two, many believe trump and his folks are to blame for those not vaccinated. In part of course this is true. In good part, however, it is also due to the lack of transparency from our experts. There were some who politely questioned the honesty from the top and were immediately taken to task. Right or left, it is curious that people tend to have their shackles raised if their own party members are questioned.
“The only pandemic we have is among the unvaccinated.”
President Biden
This seems to be the latest “catch phrase” in various forms from the medical community i.e. CDC, Dr. Fauci etc.
When Trump was president, the common phrase was the buck stops at the top. That has not changed….except maybe by some who said the words. If unvaccinated are a problem then he needs to take responsibility and figure out how to reach them. Some of it is not rocket science……stop telling half truths. Some of it is beyond the scope of logic and there may be nothing he can do. If the former is remedied…and it may be too late….then maybe, just maybe, more will be vaccinated
In the meantime….how does he not see that this is impacting numbers and mitigation policies are not even on the table.
I can’t even think about what this means for unvaccinated kids in schools in a matter of weeks. I’m seeing home schooling in the future of some
Vicki, Philip, indeed, the ongoing theme is “it’s extraordinarily rare to get severely ill if fully vaccinated” and “the only pandemic we have is among the unvaccinated.”
This sidesteps two realities: 1. According to U.S. data, 4% of deaths are fully vaccinated folks. This number is likely rising, as it’s a somewhat higher percentage in other countries. Is this rare? Extraordinarily rare? 2. More importantly, fully vaccinated folks can contract the virus and pass it on, which means they, too, must take precautions. The latter point seems lost in all the discussions led by the Administration, which dichotomizes too much, in my humble opinion.
Former CDC director Frieden – a person I certainly respect – echoes what the Administration is saying. I’m uncomfortable with the wording in his message.
Wow. The replies to him get stronger as you read on. Seems many do get it and are frustrated with the nonsense. So when do our “experts” and our president and governors get it
Projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation forecasts that 50,000 more Americans will die from Covid-19 by Nov. 1 and daily infections will rise to about 225,000 across this nation.
I don’t have the following that Dr. Topol has. Nor am I the expert Topol is. Nevertheless, I say in all modesty that several months ago I noted – also on Twitter – that the US is more vulnerable to Delta than the UK because the US has vaccinated a much smaller percentage of the >65: 80% in the US compared to >95% in the UK. If it’s bad there it’s going to be worse here because we have not protected the most vulnerable as well as Britain. You could see some of this prior to the Delta wave as the UK’s death rate plummeted to rates far, far below ours (much lower than Vermont, Massachusetts, and California). Why? Well, their vaccination campaign emphasized ensuring the vulnerable were vaccinated first. Doing everything possible in terms of outreach – MUCH more than the Biden Administration. https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1416822255011581959
I thought the US did everything it could to get those vulnerable >65 folks vaccinated imo. The old saying, “you can lead a horse to water” etc.
The bottom line is just too much hesitancy in the US with Trump’s influence (or lack thereof) in those “red” states plus setting up the Biden Administration to fail and many other factors.
Still, the fact that California is a “blue” state, puzzling that so much vaccine hesitancy that mask orders had to be restored. Still hope Baker doesn’t follow.
I think the U.S. did better than anyone could have expected in terms of the vaccination campaign from January through April. But I do not think the U.S. has been nearly as proactive at the federal or state level as it could have been, especially in the past two months. You may have noticed in one of the replies to the Topol tweet a person mentions and praises Vermont’s intensive outreach (Republican governor, by the way). The Vermont Governor’s team went door to door long before the Biden Administration even contemplated doing so (and only in low vaccination states). Vermont is closer to the UK in terms of getting the elderly vaccinated. Also has the lowest death rate in the nation overall.
California is a VERY difficult state to manage. I don’t envy any governor there, Democrat or Republican. It’s a wonderful state with great people. Yet, it’s got some issues that are quite hard to get a handle on. First, there’s a sharp divide between the liberal urban centers and the conservative rural inland areas, as well as interior cities like Bakersfield. There’s plenty of vaccine hesitancy in the interior. Second, the immigrant population dwarfs practically any other state, and especially those without papers. For a variety of reasons it’s very hard to reach these groups, whether they live in or near the urban centers of San Diego or Los Angeles. Vaccine hesitancy among these groups isn’t as conscious a choice. Rather, it’s fear of the government until one gets sick and must go to the hospital.
By the way, do not mean to say that conservatives are necessarily vaccine hesitant. They are not necessarily so at all. It’s just that generally speaking liberals are more prone to get vaccinated than conservatives.
I could not have described CA better. I’ve had long chats with my BIL along those lines. And oddly, I was going to ask you about Vermont. I thought I read that the state tightened up some of its mitigation procedures. Either way, of all of the states, I have felt VT is the one others should follow. Maybe HI also, but I’m not as familiar with it. I have mentioned that Mac’s Brookline cousin has a home in Stowe and said all along folks just did what was asked of them. Interestingly, they did in Brookline also.
I chuckled a bit at your last post. Conservative is typically conservative across the board. I vary from quite conservative in some cases and more liberal in others. Maybe that is why I get the hesitancy.
Philip, being a horse person, your horse analogy is a good one. You cannot lead a horse to water if he feels even slight hesitancy on your part that it might not be safe. It is why you cannot make them drink it. They are remarkably intuitive animals.
Like your post, Vicki.
In some ways I’m conservative. In others, liberal.
Thanks. I could see that you were. It can be a really nice mix.
Vicki, in other words horses won’t drink unless they’re thirsty, correct? 🙂
Not necessarily. They won’t drink if they sense there is something wrong with the water.
Joshua, what are your thoughts about the forecast from the IHME that I posted above? As scary as those numbers are, does it come down to the unvaccinated potentially bringing it upon themselves needlessly? Not meaning to be too judgmental.
Btw, November is closer than you think. Only 4 months away, and my birth month as well.
One thing we have not mentioned and the powers that be seem to have forgotten…..the vaccine is yet to be approved fully. That is a big deal.
I’m absolutely not rushing approval. To me that would be irresponsible and be the cause of legitimate hesitation.
Well, here is my take. How much more evidence does the FDA need?? Total approval would get more of those unvaccinated get VACCINATED!!!
And yet, the same FDA approved an Alzheimer’s drug that doesn’t really cure, or even prevent Alzheimer’s if I remember correctly.
The thing is we have absolutely no idea what approval entails. There is no way to know or second guess. I can’t compare one drug to another because I just do not have the knowledge
Frankly, if the FDA were to fully approved due to pressure from outside, you can count me among those who would not get it if I were not vaccinated and I surely would not support any grandchildren getting it….quietly because is would be their parents decision and not mine.
I am not finding that other counties have fully approved or even need to. Joshua?
I just heard on WBZ evening news that MA has the HIGHEST vaccination rate in the nation! 🙂
Philip, the IHME model (University of Washington) is known to be a thorough and relatively good predictive model. I’m hoping it’s not correct, as those numbers aren’t what we’re hoping for. We’ll see.
NPR just posted a piece about its journalists covering the Tokyo Olympics being subjected to a “strict 3 day quarantine” and “lots of Covid tests.” After that, journalists are free to move around the country. The article made it seem that journalists were surprised the rules were so stringent. Where has NPR been during the last 18 months? Anyone who navigates the international travel scene knows that strict quarantines and numerous Covid tests are routine in many nations. For one thing, if I go to see my daughter in the UK I won’t have any free movement. It’ll be a strict quarantine the whole time (6 days), along with 4 Covid tests.
C-19 / 7-19 / ready.
Comments are closed.
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Joshua, I copied this from yesterday. I wonder your thoughts and if we do trust Israel’s 64%
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2021/07/06/science/Israel-Pfizer-covid-vaccine.amp.html
Yes, I do trust the Israeli data. They’re far more up to date than ours. CDC is often 3 weeks or more behind. By the way, there’s a Singapore study that more or less confirms the Israeli data. Talks about a 69% vaccine efficacy percentage.
Also, you sent another NYT article yesterday. I agreed with the gist of it. But I thought the messaging was off. It was a bit too `everything will be okay’ because the vaccine still works very well to prevent severe illness.
The drop in vaccine efficacy is worrisome, even if most of the decline impacts the chance of a fully vaccinated contracting the virus, NOT disease severity. It’s concerning because it means that vaccinated folks are getting breakthrough infections at an alarming rate and they are then capable of transmitting to others. It’s one thing the UK gets and we don’t. Their health minister is fully vaccinated yet came down with Covid-19. He has mild symptoms. But he is self-isolating with no contact with anyone for at least 10 days. The reason they do all that testing in the UK (3 times as much as we do) is precisely to prevent those who do test positive from transmitting to others, particularly those who are still vulnerable.
Finally, there was a report yesterday that of the ~2,000 Covid-19 related deaths in the U.S. last week, 75 were fully vaccinated people. That’s a very small percentage. But, it most definitely is NOT the <1% which Fauci and others continue to state. It's closer to 4% and probably rising a bit over time.
Thank you, Joshua. Macs family had a very dear friend who was a leading physician in Israel. I have probably said this before. I always had the sense that, as good as we are, he was a step or two ahead.
I don’t see a second NyT article from me yesterday so not sure which you are referring to. But I do understand your comment and agree as this seems to be the theme
Only reason I knew of Director Walensky‘s comments is that I began yesterday as I most often do…reading Heather Cox Richardson’s daily email. My stomach turned as I read. Not because of HRC, but because of what was being said by Walensky and a few others.
As I read through many of the over 4000 comments posted to that email, I noticed two things. One, folks are either ignoring the Rise in cases among fully vaccinated or content with saying it is so rare that there is no need for concern. These are left leaning individuals. Many seem to believe if vaccinated, life goes pretty much back to normal.
Two, many believe trump and his folks are to blame for those not vaccinated. In part of course this is true. In good part, however, it is also due to the lack of transparency from our experts. There were some who politely questioned the honesty from the top and were immediately taken to task. Right or left, it is curious that people tend to have their shackles raised if their own party members are questioned.
“The only pandemic we have is among the unvaccinated.”
President Biden
This seems to be the latest “catch phrase” in various forms from the medical community i.e. CDC, Dr. Fauci etc.
When Trump was president, the common phrase was the buck stops at the top. That has not changed….except maybe by some who said the words. If unvaccinated are a problem then he needs to take responsibility and figure out how to reach them. Some of it is not rocket science……stop telling half truths. Some of it is beyond the scope of logic and there may be nothing he can do. If the former is remedied…and it may be too late….then maybe, just maybe, more will be vaccinated
In the meantime….how does he not see that this is impacting numbers and mitigation policies are not even on the table.
I can’t even think about what this means for unvaccinated kids in schools in a matter of weeks. I’m seeing home schooling in the future of some
Vicki, Philip, indeed, the ongoing theme is “it’s extraordinarily rare to get severely ill if fully vaccinated” and “the only pandemic we have is among the unvaccinated.”
This sidesteps two realities: 1. According to U.S. data, 4% of deaths are fully vaccinated folks. This number is likely rising, as it’s a somewhat higher percentage in other countries. Is this rare? Extraordinarily rare? 2. More importantly, fully vaccinated folks can contract the virus and pass it on, which means they, too, must take precautions. The latter point seems lost in all the discussions led by the Administration, which dichotomizes too much, in my humble opinion.
Former CDC director Frieden – a person I certainly respect – echoes what the Administration is saying. I’m uncomfortable with the wording in his message.
https://twitter.com/DrTomFrieden/status/1416776032502304776
Wow. The replies to him get stronger as you read on. Seems many do get it and are frustrated with the nonsense. So when do our “experts” and our president and governors get it
Projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation forecasts that 50,000 more Americans will die from Covid-19 by Nov. 1 and daily infections will rise to about 225,000 across this nation.
I don’t have the following that Dr. Topol has. Nor am I the expert Topol is. Nevertheless, I say in all modesty that several months ago I noted – also on Twitter – that the US is more vulnerable to Delta than the UK because the US has vaccinated a much smaller percentage of the >65: 80% in the US compared to >95% in the UK. If it’s bad there it’s going to be worse here because we have not protected the most vulnerable as well as Britain. You could see some of this prior to the Delta wave as the UK’s death rate plummeted to rates far, far below ours (much lower than Vermont, Massachusetts, and California). Why? Well, their vaccination campaign emphasized ensuring the vulnerable were vaccinated first. Doing everything possible in terms of outreach – MUCH more than the Biden Administration. https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1416822255011581959
I thought the US did everything it could to get those vulnerable >65 folks vaccinated imo. The old saying, “you can lead a horse to water” etc.
The bottom line is just too much hesitancy in the US with Trump’s influence (or lack thereof) in those “red” states plus setting up the Biden Administration to fail and many other factors.
Still, the fact that California is a “blue” state, puzzling that so much vaccine hesitancy that mask orders had to be restored. Still hope Baker doesn’t follow.
I think the U.S. did better than anyone could have expected in terms of the vaccination campaign from January through April. But I do not think the U.S. has been nearly as proactive at the federal or state level as it could have been, especially in the past two months. You may have noticed in one of the replies to the Topol tweet a person mentions and praises Vermont’s intensive outreach (Republican governor, by the way). The Vermont Governor’s team went door to door long before the Biden Administration even contemplated doing so (and only in low vaccination states). Vermont is closer to the UK in terms of getting the elderly vaccinated. Also has the lowest death rate in the nation overall.
California is a VERY difficult state to manage. I don’t envy any governor there, Democrat or Republican. It’s a wonderful state with great people. Yet, it’s got some issues that are quite hard to get a handle on. First, there’s a sharp divide between the liberal urban centers and the conservative rural inland areas, as well as interior cities like Bakersfield. There’s plenty of vaccine hesitancy in the interior. Second, the immigrant population dwarfs practically any other state, and especially those without papers. For a variety of reasons it’s very hard to reach these groups, whether they live in or near the urban centers of San Diego or Los Angeles. Vaccine hesitancy among these groups isn’t as conscious a choice. Rather, it’s fear of the government until one gets sick and must go to the hospital.
By the way, do not mean to say that conservatives are necessarily vaccine hesitant. They are not necessarily so at all. It’s just that generally speaking liberals are more prone to get vaccinated than conservatives.
I could not have described CA better. I’ve had long chats with my BIL along those lines. And oddly, I was going to ask you about Vermont. I thought I read that the state tightened up some of its mitigation procedures. Either way, of all of the states, I have felt VT is the one others should follow. Maybe HI also, but I’m not as familiar with it. I have mentioned that Mac’s Brookline cousin has a home in Stowe and said all along folks just did what was asked of them. Interestingly, they did in Brookline also.
I chuckled a bit at your last post. Conservative is typically conservative across the board. I vary from quite conservative in some cases and more liberal in others. Maybe that is why I get the hesitancy.
Philip, being a horse person, your horse analogy is a good one. You cannot lead a horse to water if he feels even slight hesitancy on your part that it might not be safe. It is why you cannot make them drink it. They are remarkably intuitive animals.
Like your post, Vicki.
In some ways I’m conservative. In others, liberal.
Thanks. I could see that you were. It can be a really nice mix.
Vicki, in other words horses won’t drink unless they’re thirsty, correct? 🙂
Not necessarily. They won’t drink if they sense there is something wrong with the water.
Joshua, what are your thoughts about the forecast from the IHME that I posted above? As scary as those numbers are, does it come down to the unvaccinated potentially bringing it upon themselves needlessly? Not meaning to be too judgmental.
Btw, November is closer than you think. Only 4 months away, and my birth month as well.
One thing we have not mentioned and the powers that be seem to have forgotten…..the vaccine is yet to be approved fully. That is a big deal.
I’m absolutely not rushing approval. To me that would be irresponsible and be the cause of legitimate hesitation.
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/when-will-the-fda-give-full-approval-for-covid-19-vaccines#Timeline-for-full-approval-of-COVID-19-vaccines
Well, here is my take. How much more evidence does the FDA need?? Total approval would get more of those unvaccinated get VACCINATED!!!
And yet, the same FDA approved an Alzheimer’s drug that doesn’t really cure, or even prevent Alzheimer’s if I remember correctly.
The thing is we have absolutely no idea what approval entails. There is no way to know or second guess. I can’t compare one drug to another because I just do not have the knowledge
Frankly, if the FDA were to fully approved due to pressure from outside, you can count me among those who would not get it if I were not vaccinated and I surely would not support any grandchildren getting it….quietly because is would be their parents decision and not mine.
I am not finding that other counties have fully approved or even need to. Joshua?
I just heard on WBZ evening news that MA has the HIGHEST vaccination rate in the nation! 🙂
Philip, the IHME model (University of Washington) is known to be a thorough and relatively good predictive model. I’m hoping it’s not correct, as those numbers aren’t what we’re hoping for. We’ll see.
NPR just posted a piece about its journalists covering the Tokyo Olympics being subjected to a “strict 3 day quarantine” and “lots of Covid tests.” After that, journalists are free to move around the country. The article made it seem that journalists were surprised the rules were so stringent. Where has NPR been during the last 18 months? Anyone who navigates the international travel scene knows that strict quarantines and numerous Covid tests are routine in many nations. For one thing, if I go to see my daughter in the UK I won’t have any free movement. It’ll be a strict quarantine the whole time (6 days), along with 4 Covid tests.
C-19 / 7-19 / ready.