Sunday July 18 2021 Forecast (8:17AM)

95 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 18-22)

Low pressure ambles across the region today and settles off to the south through Monday, pushing that frontal boundary we’ve had nearby a little further south, but keeping the weather unsettled. After a fairly widespread moderate to heavy shower and thunderstorm event Saturday afternoon through early this morning, we can expect slightly widespread but still numerous showers and possibly a few thunderstorms today, then a decrease to scattered showers Monday and finally as the system pulls away only a few isolated lingering showers in the region for Tuesday. But when we get to Wednesday a new system cross the region with a renewed shower and thunderstorm threat before pulling away Thursday, which may end up as only the second regionally completely dry day of July so far, 22 days in…

TODAY: Cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog, mostly early. Highs 70-77. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, mostly S near the South Coast and NE elsewhere.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periodic showers. Patches of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60s. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Patchy fog mainly early. Highs 72-79. Dew point 60s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers possible. Highs 72-79. Dew point 60s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind the variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 73-80. Dew point 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 23-27)

A couple disturbances bring shower chances during this period, but the overall pattern looks drier with a general northwesterly air flow. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

The trend continues to be somewhat drier with the lack of hot weather with a dominant west to northwest flow in the region.

95 thoughts on “Sunday July 18 2021 Forecast (8:17AM)”

  4. Thanks TK
    Drove through a nasty thunderstorm in Baltimore on my way home with torrential rain and a lot of lightning bolts. Traffic was crawling.

    1. Nasty. I was thinking of you. It looked as if some weather went through the area I thought you might be driving. Glad you are safely home and hope you had a great time

      1. I had a great time down in Virginia. The rain at varying intensity followed me from northern NJ back to CT and throw in some lightning bolts at times for good measure. Driving through that rain in Baltimore was the heaviest rain I drove through in years. People were pulling over and some doing it under the underpass with the rain coming down so hard.

  5. 82° here in Sarasota dew points 75° not a cloud in the sky. Sea breeze from east and west collides then the intense storms develop. It’s gasoline and matches .

  8. Thanks TK.

    Vicki, northern Rhode Island got hit hard. Wrentham got it quite a bit too. Down the road here in North Attleboro I got .30 prior to midnight. I am not complaining but just goes to show how just a short distance can make a huge difference. Looks like Worcester broke their July record in the last 24 hours.

    1. Wow. Thanks. No wonder Scott’s yard was flooded. They were out and surprised when they got home to water and no power.

      Sutton was like that. North side by center was flooded on Millbury side but daughter said as soon as they got to the schools there was almost nothing. In south Sutton we had a Tom storm 😉

        2. A storm that you can enjoy without having to jump under the bed See his comment to me when I answered his question go me yesterday. In other words.

          😉

  11. Woken up at 4:45am by another thunderstorm with at least 3 lightning strikes accompanied by simultaneous thunder (one of my cats did NOT like that at all). With another 1.23″ since Friday, I’m now at 9.71″ for the month. There’s a PWS not far from me at 9.79″ for the month.

    There’s a CO-OP station in Brockton, but it’s on the other side of the city, probably about 5 miles away from me (straight-line distance). The record July rainfall there is 10.83″ in 1988, so this month would be in 2nd place. The data for this station only is available at the end of the month, so I have no idea what they’re at now. The nearest PWS to that spot is at 8.65″.

    1. This has gotta be the most you’ve been woken or awake for overnight thunder in quite a few years.

      This happened so often in the 1970s and 80s around my area. Hardly ever anymore. Even recent events with overnight thunder we’ve been in between the bigger cells.

  12. As I said before could not buy a drop of rain last July to this July were saying Mother Nature turn off the faucet.

    1. Extremes are part of the range we get averages from. So here we have a vivid example, especially if you compare recent droughts (2016 and later) with this.

      I was just talking to my brother for a while (the one who got me into weather when I was a toddler basically) about these and long term patterns.

      I’m very curious to see how this goes, but I have a partially AMO-based theory that the long term drought in the West will be largely gone in about 15 years.

  13. Thank you, TK.

    Moss is growing on my back.

    July 2021 is already memorable weather-wise. Never had so much rain in July in my lifetime (I was born in in 1964). And while nothing is certain in life, I think that it will go down as the grayest (least amount of sunshine) July in my lifetime. The lack of sunshine may be more remarkable than all the rain. I am sure that we had more sun last December than we’ve had this month. In fact, A LOT more.

  14. As humid/tropical as it’s been, this may be the most oppressive it’s been yet.

    Front seems to have moved north some overnight.

    I think there’s less lift today. But, still see Logan and Boston area with north to east winds and its a south wind here. I wonder if the Boston area gets hit today with heavy rains.

    1. My equipment shows dew point of 70!
      Was raining good here a while ago. 0.37 inch on the day
      and 0.61 combined yesterday and today.

      2. Oppressive there too, I think we’re running 72F – 75F down here.

        I can’t remember the last time the dewpoint was under 60F.

          1. Indeed. I’ve noticed the fogging up of windows. Whether shrouded in fog, drenched from rain, or simply dark and gloomy (like this morning, which is about as dark as a morning can be in July) we’re all going to remember this month. In fact, there’s an upside to all this. All future July’s in our lifetime will in all likelihood be better.

  15. Last month, on my laptop, a weather app of sorts was added automatically. Perhaps by way of a Windows update. Don’t know. I’m technologically inept and rather illiterate. In any case, the feature tells you what the weather is like in your locale. It’ll say “partly cloudy,” “mostly sunny,” “rain,” etc … Well, this month, more often than not it’s either “rain” or “rain coming.” The `best’ weather this month is when it says “rain to stop.” This doesn’t mean it’s going to be nice outside, just that the rain will temporarily stop.

  16. Thanks TK,
    Quite the storm this morning at 3:00am, vivid lightning but the story was more of the brain that fell in my area. I recorded 2.03” in about 40 minutes. My weather station logged a rainfall rate of almost 8” an hour at one point. I have had 2.87” in the last 24 hours. The wetland on my street is now flowing over the street even with an unclogged drain pipe that runs under the road. I’ve only seen that one other time in the 20 years I’ve lived here, back in October 2005.

    1. Wow. I wonder if I slept through it. May I ask what weather station you have. Apologies if ive asked before

  18. I have a Davis vantage pro 2. It’s about 13 years old and other than the humidity and dew point sensor that just started malfunctioning, it’s a great weather station and pretty accurate.

    1. Nice. Thank you. A good part of my problem is verizon and it’s lack of WiFi distance. Im thinking of a new station but need to fix that problem first. I keep putting off spending more hours on the phone with Verizon. ….again

  19. A little off topic, but I hope the NY Yankees are consulting a different weather forecaster today. The one(s) who guided them last night cost them an hour of dry weather when the game was supposed to start, then, had them playing through tough for baseball conditions the last inning or 2.

    1. I’m thinking that may have actually been an umpire thing. They were horrendous. They stopped the game when it was hardly raining, and resumed it for the downpours. Great idea……….

      1. someone should do consultant work for MLB during winter ….. umpire weather training. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  21. Front just passed south again, NE wind now. Didn´t know a 68F dp could feel so refreshing, but it does.

    1. It’s all relative.

      I’ve also noted a lot of people are adapting to the wet pattern very nicely. I’d love to see more people do this.

      I stopped at an ice cream place I had never been at last evening to give it a try and it was very steadily raining at a moderate to nearly heavy clip. Yet the walk from people’s cars to underneath the overhang at the windows seemed not to bother anybody.

      I also saw a couple of groups of young people out and about, walking with umbrellas seeming to enjoy themselves.

      Thankfully I witnessed this and was part of it during a very low lightning danger time. We had progressed out of the active convective phase and were several hours before the next one.

  22. I agree that a different jet stream configuration is coming, but I´m starting to wonder how much of a dry spell there is going to be.

    We have had a lot of deep SW flow, incredible amounts of moisture available in the column. This has produced, lately, these incredible 1 and 2 hr rainfall rates and totals and many instances of localized flash flooding.

    I do agree that particular pattern is about to change.

    But, I don´t think it changes directly to dry northwest flow with limited rain changes and low humidity.

    Instead, perhaps a flow aloft carrying disturbances through with associated cool fronts still capable of producing showers and thunderstorms that can drop .5 to 1 inch of rain from time to time. So, a pattern less capable of producing these crazy rain amounts due to less available tropical moisture, but still not a long stretch of dry days either.

    1. There will be disturbances in that pattern, but they are going to be fast-movers and originating in much drier areas.

      NWS’s 8-14 day today is moderate confidence drier and cooler than average.

  24. Another dreary day but it could be worse. Rain has stopped for a while. Do you see heavy rains later in eastern mass.? The bar is so low that I’ m ok with overcast.

  28. Thanks TK.

    Very much looking forward to those cooler, drier episodes for DAYS 6-15! 🙂

    TK – Will we return to the HOT & WET pattern for August? 🙁

    2. Actually we’ve not really been in a hot pattern at all other than 2 bouts of heat. Wet, since the start of July, yes.

      August? Starts cooler and drier than average, then we’ll see…

      1. …then back to the same old miserable, crappy pattern, correct? 😉

        The general theme of summer 2021…HOT & WET!!!

        & STUFFY!!!

        1. Compared to some of our hot summers, this is not even close.

          June was fairly hot, July is fairly not….. Even without any possible correction (that is, taking Logan’s temp as is on the sensor), they are running 2.6F below normal through July 17. That’s not hot.
          We actually had more of a hot ending to spring, where as summer itself has been moderate in terms of temp. With a pattern this wet in July of course it’s going to be humid often.

          Rainfall … that’s far more variable, and obviously some areas are in double-digits, but as we know, months where most precip is convective, you’re going to have great variability. Logan is over 8 inches, significant above average for the month-to-date, but during the last 7 days, they’ve only received 1.32 inch – not that much. It’s important to look at specifics and not just fully generalize.

          As WxW noted, and I agree, I think we somewhat go back to a version of this pattern after our break, but I also personally don’t think we’re returning to a pattern of this magnitude. It will likely be a lesser version of it, noticeably so.

          There are still some things pending: La Nina onset and other factors in play at the time. I’m not sure what that does to the end of the summer just yet. It can go either way.

          1. Thanks, TK.

            I have serious doubts about the Logan measurement. I’m not far from Logan. Have had 2.03 inches in the last 7 days, and 9.87 inches since the beginning of the month. Of course, my gauge may be off. I also recognize the local nature of some of the storms. But being only a few miles from Logan I do wonder if their measurement is off.

  29. With regard to rain amounts….. We had well over an inch less than a few miles away in last nights storm. Actually, within about 3/4 of a mile in Sutton last night there was significant flooding and then next to nothing. Conversely, that part of Sutton had far less than we had in an earlier storm. North also posted a huge difference in his area last night.

    1. It’s been extremely variable. And those variations tend to be even more pronounced in a very wet, convective pattern.

      1. Sure has been. It is fascinating. My daughter was worried when they went through the flooding around the enter that the area that typically floods might be impassible. Turned out to not even have a puddle.

        I just checked on the map. The two areas are 0,6 mile apart. Just crazy

  30. We may sneak in a really nice day here Tuesday .. based on short range trends.

    Also, potentially faster timing of a front Wednesday may mean minimal activity that day.

    1. Good. SIL is trying to fit in a not extremely hot day and not down pouring to put down lawn treatment.

  32. What an interesting weather phenomenon. It isn’t raining in the true sense. The water is simply hanging in the air rather than landing on the ground.

  35. I have seen video from the CT storm. Definite funnel at least. Whether or not the circulation was on the ground can’t be determined by the video. We will need to see other video or wait for NWS investigation. If I had to guess, that circulation was on the ground, but we’ll see what they say.

  37. Vicki all the forecasts here in CT were saying storms will not reach severe levels today. Clearly that did not happen in Sommers. I found out about this looking on twitter.

    1. Oh boy. And yikes. As I recall, cells were moving northeast and Somers is NE of you. Did that system go through your area ?

  38. No. I had a downpour that last about 10 minutes. Sommers is northeast of me in the northern part of Tolland County and is not far from the Massachusetts boarder. If this is a confirmed tornado it would be the second of the year in CT. The first back in April in Kent CT.

    1. It is Not far from Suffield where I spent a ton of time in the late 60s and early 70s. Beautiful area. But then I think CT is a beautiful state.

  41. A situation like that CT event is pretty much a “non-severe” severe storm. A brief, low level rotation, just enough to make a weak tornado. It tends to have no pronounced meso, and often these things produce little or no thunder. We’ve seen this quite often. These were the types of events that used to be missed, especially in the days of more sparse population and no cell phones.

  42. For those wondering about Logan’s rainfall total, it fits right in with the monthly numbers as there are several stations nearby that are within a 10% difference. If these were snow numbers, nobody would be complaining about the range from one town to the next. We’ve seen plenty of instances recently where one town can get 2-4″ of rain in a day and the next town over gets less than 1″, so really, is a 1-2″ difference over 2.5 weeks that big of a deal? Complain all you want about temperatures, but I have no problem at all with the rain gauge at Logan.

    Here’s a fairly lengthy list of rainfall across Eastern MA, Southern NH, and RI through 7/17:

    MA JAMAICA PLAIN 12.61
    MA MILLIS 2.0 SW 12.27
    MA CHELSEA 0.8 N 11.76
    MA HOLLISTON 0.7 W 11.60
    MA MIDDLETON 1.4 SSW 11.29
    MA MILFORD 11.25
    MA HOLLISTON 0.8 S 11.21
    MA HINGHAM 11.13
    MA WINCHESTER 0.7 SE 10.92
    MA BLUE HILL COOP 10.90
    MA ARLINGTON 0.4 WNW 10.87
    MA MIDDLETON 10.77
    MA SHERBORN 1.1 NW 10.75
    RI WOONSOCKET 1.8 WNW 10.74
    MA BELLINGHAM 2.4 S 10.73
    MA MILFORD 2.3 NNW 10.63
    MA ACTON 1.3 SW 10.52
    MA BEVERLY 10.48
    MA DANVERS 0.8 ESE 10.45
    MA MELROSE 0.5 NE 10.43
    NH HUDSON 1 SSE 10.35
    MA NORWOOD 1.3 NW 10.32
    NH NASHUA CWSU 10.28
    MA CAMBRIDGE 0.9 NNW 10.27
    NH WEST HAMPSTEAD 10.23
    MA BELMONT 0.2 ESE 10.12
    MA QUINCY 1.2 W 10.08
    NH KINGSTON 2.3 NE 10.08
    MA NAHANT 0.4 N 10.03
    MA WATERTOWN 1.1 W 10.01
    MA ANDOVER 0.6 E 9.98
    RI CUMBERLAND HILL 0.9 NW 9.97
    MA WAKEFIELD 0.5 NNW 9.92
    MA MARBLEHEAD 0.8 SW 9.90
    MA LEXINGTON 0.6 SW 9.89
    MA WEYMOUTH 2.3 N 9.83
    MA QUINCY 1.8 WSW 9.80
    RI HARRISVILLE 1.2 SSE 9.77
    MA SOMERVILLE 0.5 SSE 9.75
    MA ANDOVER 1.5 W 9.68
    MA BOXFORD 2.4 S 9.57
    MA LOWELL 9.52
    MA NATICK 1.9 NNE 9.46
    MA NORTH ANDOVER 0.3 NW 9.32
    MA MAYNARD 0.7 ESE 9.25
    MA AMESBURY 1.2 N 9.19
    RI NORTH SMITHFIELD 0.7 SE 9.18
    MA NORTON WEST 9.17
    MA MILLIS 1.4 ENE 9.14
    MA BEDFORD HANSCOM FIELD 9.10
    MA BOSTON 9.09
    MA READING 1.2 N 9.06
    MA HINGHAM 0.8 ESE 9.05
    MA FRANKLIN 1.4 SW 9.04
    MA ACTON 4.0 ENE 9.01
    RI NORTH SMITHFIELD 0.6 S 8.92
    MA WALPOLE 2 8.91
    RI CUMBERLAND HILL 3.6 NNE 8.90
    MA NORWOOD MEMORIAL AP 8.86
    MA HAVERHILL 0.7 N 8.84
    MA LITTLETON 0.9 WSW 8.82
    MA BERLIN 1.3 WSW 8.79
    MA KINGSTON 3.3 WNW 8.79
    MA NEWBURYPORT 0.8 SW 8.76
    MA FOXBOROUGH 1.8 SSW 8.73
    MA CHELMSFORD 1.2 E 8.73
    MA TEWKSBURY 3.6 SSE 8.50
    MA FRAMINGHAM 1.7 E 8.45
    MA LITTLETON 2.8 NNW 8.44
    MA WILMINGTON 2.2 WNW 8.39
    MA ABINGTON 1.2 NNE 8.37
    MA NEWBURYPORT 0.6 N 8.37
    MA SUDBURY 3.6 W 8.36
    MA GROVELAND 0.8 S 8.36
    MA NWS BOSTON/NORTON 8.33
    MA NORTHBOROUGH 2.3 N 8.31
    NH MANCHESTER 0.6 S 8.31
    NH EAST MILFORD 8.29
    MA HUDSON 1.4 NW 8.26
    MA TAUNTON 3.9 N 8.21
    MA GEORGETOWN 1.3 ENE 8.20
    MA LAWRENCE MUNICIPAL AP 8.11
    MA BRIDGEWATER 8.10
    MA MANSFIELD 2.4 ENE 8.01
    MA ATTLEBORO 0.9 ENE 7.99
    MA DUXBURY 3.7 W 7.97
    MA REHOBOTH 2.1 N 7.84
    RI CRANSTON 1.2 SSE 7.80
    MA DIGHTON 3.3 NNW 7.79
    MA AMESBURY 2.6 WSW 7.77
    RI CRANSTON 4.2 ENE 7.70
    MA WEST NEWBURY 1.8 SSE 7.66
    MA BRIDGEWATER 1.8 SE 7.56
    MA LINCOLN 1.5 SW 7.53
    NH MANCHESTER AIRPORT 7.41
    RI PROVIDENCE 1.6 NE 7.37
    MA AYER 0.1 SW 7.18
    NH MONT VERNON 1.3 SSW 7.12
    MA GLOUCESTER 4.3 N 7.12
    MA MIDDLEBORO 7.07
    RI PROVIDENCE 1.6 NNW 6.95
    MA TAUNTON MUNICIPAL AP 6.94
    NH AMHERST 3.7 NNE 6.94
    RI COVENTRY 2 6.81
    MA MARSHFIELD 1.5 NNW 6.80
    RI PROVIDENCE 6.66
    MA PLYMOUTH 1.1 NNW 6.63
    RI COVENTRY 1.9 NE 6.58
    MA BEVERLY MUNICIPAL AP 6.46
    RI COVENTRY 6.39
    MA DIGHTON 1.1 WSW 6.38
    MA PLYMOUTH MUNICIPAL AP 6.21
    MA HANSON 1.8 N 6.14
    MA SOMERSET 0.4 SSE 6.01
    MA NEW BEDFORD 4.3 N 5.92
    MA SUDBURY 2.7 WNW 5.83
    RI WARWICK 3.2 NNE 5.72
    RI EAST GREENWICH 1.2 NNE 5.67
    RI RICHMOND 4.6 NNE 5.34
    RI EAST GREENWICH 2.3 ESE 5.31
    RI RIVERSIDE 0.8 SE 5.27
    RI WARWICK 0.8 ENE 5.15
    MA ROCHESTER 4.98
    RI LITTLE COMPTON 1.7 NW 4.81
    RI NORTH KINGSTOWN 2.7 WSW 4.64
    RI HOPE VALLEY 1.8 NE 4.49
    MA SAGAMORE BEACH 1.0 NW 4.47
    RI KINGSTON 7.5 NNE 4.42
    MA PLYMOUTH 10.6 SSE 4.25
    RI TIVERTON 1.0 SSW 4.09
    RI TIVERTON 0.8 SSW 4.07
    RI PORTSMOUTH 3.7 NNE 4.00
    RI MIDDLETOWN 1.1 SW 3.96
    RI PORTSMOUTH 1.3 S 3.82
    RI TIVERTON 4.4 SSE 3.80
    MA NEW BEDFORD MUNICIPAL AP 3.68
    RI PORTSMOUTH 2.3 S 3.42
    RI NEWPORT STATE AP 3.37
    RI LITTLE COMPTON 0.6 E 3.05
    MA MASHPEE 2.5 W 2.97
    MA MASHPEE 2.4 WSW 2.77
    MA EAST FALMOUTH 0.7 NW 2.69
    MA FALMOUTH 5.7 N 2.58
    MA FALMOUTH 3.1 NNW 2.52
    MA FALMOUTH 0.6 NNW 2.41
    MA EAST FALMOUTH 1.4 ESE 2.29
    MA EAST FALMOUTH 0.2 ESE 2.29
    MA FALMOUTH 3.0 E 2.24
    MA FALMOUTH 5.4 NNE 2.24
    MA WAQUOIT 0.6 SSW 2.22

    1. Just to add to this, daily data for Logan this month, compared to daily data for East Boston from the Boston Water and Sewer Commission

      Date Logan E. Boston Difference
      7/1 1.28 1.22 0.06
      7/2 1.67 2.24 -0.57
      7/3 1.68 1.61 0.07
      7/4 0.31 0.37 -0.06
      7/5 T 0.01 -0.01
      7/6 0.29 0.21 0.08
      7/7 0.03 0.07 -0.04
      7/8 0.30 0.54 -0.24
      7/9 2.04 2.19 -0.15
      7/10 0.05 0.03 0.02
      7/11 0.03 0.17 -0.14
      7/12 1.21 1.24 -0.03
      7/13 0.01 0.01 0.00
      7/14 T 0.00 0.00
      7/15 0.00 0.00 0.00
      7/16 0.02 0.00 0.02
      7/17 0.17 0.24 -0.07
      7/18 0.30 0.28 0.02
      Total 9.39 10.43 -1.04

      Yes, East Boston is a little more than an inch higher, but the day-to-day varies, with Logan coming out heavier on many days. One day early in the month (July 2) accounts for more than half of the difference, and July 8-9 account for nearly 40% of the difference. Given that most of the rainfall has been convective, this is well within what could be expected for a variance.

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