Friday July 23 2021 Forecast (8:57AM)

44 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 23-27)

So yesterday the atmosphere decided to make showers that were not really forecast (except by a couple short range models if one was paying close enough attention). I did not put them in my forecast, thinking fair-weather clouds were sufficient to predict, not expecting them to grow enough to produce showers. But they did, albeit isolated. Still, if you were under one of these, they did produce a few downpours, and a bonus rainbow or two (I saw a brief double. In fact, I saw a rain bow and in the opposite part of the sky a sun dog, seeing both at the same time for the first time, which was cool!). So I’ll take the minor forecast miss and yet another lesson learned for that nice little bonus at the end of my day. Today, we have these showers in the forecast, as a disturbance will be crossing the region this afternoon and early evening, but once again they should be fairly isolated in coverage, but should you be visited by one, a down pour could occur for a brief time. Primary window for activity today, which may include some thunder too, is about 2:00 p.m. to about sunset (mid afternoon through early evening). After that we’ll see clearing and a refreshing air mass reinforced, setting us up for a beautiful day on Saturday with lots of sun with mild and dry air. Now, our pattern is improved over recent abundant overcast and rainfall, but we’re still somewhat unsettled, and that will be evident Sunday as the next disturbance moves into the mean trough position in our region, a warm front bringing lots of clouds and occasional wet weather, especially in the afternoon and evening based on current timing. These systems can move more quickly than prognosticated by even shorter-range guidance so it would not surprise me if showers are already nearby in the morning. Based on this, the forecast wording will reflect a shower threat all day, but but at this time it seems likely that the greatest chance and highest coverage will occur as we get deeper into the day, if you want to take the chance on planning something outside. A warm front will push through later Sunday, and a cold front will follow this, probably passing by during Monday morning. Monday will be a day we’ll likely see our shower chances start out higher, then drop off with fair and slightly less humid air following a Sunday night humidity spike. Tuesday should be a mostly dry and seasonably warm day, but a weak disturbance moving by may be enough to trigger a few showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours, but being several days away, the certainty is not there, and I’ll take a closer look at that as we go along.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms mostly mid afternoon on. Highs 76-83. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog lower elevation areas. Lows 55-62. Dew point middle 50s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lower elevation fog patches. Lows 57-64. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Shower chances increasing throughout the day. Highs 76-83. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to S.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely evening. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm, favoring the morning-midday hours. Highs 78-85. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

Overall pattern is drier, but not without shower/thunderstorm chances, which seem highest from later July 28 into July 29 at this time, based on best timing of strongest disturbances coming along a mostly west to northwest flow. Temperatures for the period averaging close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 2-6)

Overall pattern of west to northwesterly air flow, with no major heat, temperatures near normal, and a drier overall regime with limited shower chances.

44 thoughts on “Friday July 23 2021 Forecast (8:57AM)”

  4. Well, if you picked the next week (or 2) to be on vacation in this area, and compare it to the weather we’ve had up to this point, then you win. 😉

    Guess who doesn’t have to go back to work until August 9? 😉

      1. That’s pretty much the crap we had much of this month. If I recall, the highest dewpoints were around 74.

        1. Most of the time our DP’s were upper 60s. We had a few days of lower 70s. Not even close to upper 70s.

          Then, we could look at those places near the Persian Gulf, and then we can’t say anything. 😉 Dew points upper 80s….

      1. Thank you sir. I saw Wankum’s map for Sunday last night
        and it just looked interesting.

        FWIW, SPC has us in a marginal risk. (so far)

        1. Always have to watch those systems in this flow – so I won’t rule it out. Just nothing glaring to me at the moment.

  9. Thanks TK.

    I brought my umbrella today. Fingers crossed it won’t be needed.

    It appears a Sunday washout. Oh well. What else is new this summer? 😉

    Hard to believe that much of the Cape is abnormally dry though.

  10. Thank you, TK. Enjoy your vacation.

    I feel like the rain record for July in Boston from 1921 will get close to being broken, but ultimately no cigar. We shall see. Interesting month, to be sure.

    By the way, after the rain delay at Fenway the game became really interesting. Could only listen, don’t have cable. But wow, what a comeback. The Sox are the comeback kids.

    1. We will see. My guess of them not getting there is really just that – a guess. Convective season: Never know. All it will take is one thunderstorm in the exact right location.

  11. If you are a fan of the Olympics, or at least the ceremonies, the opening ceremony from Tokyo is highly recommended. I saw it live online early this morning. It will be on NBC in Prime Time tonight. It was amazing. And I love watching the parade of nations.

      1. She was in attendance, yes, but not part of the parade of nations, which they really leave for the athletes to be spotlighted in.

        It’s gotta be hard for them to be marching into a stadium that has about 10% of the people it would normally have, but still wonderful to be there to represent and compete.

        Hoping for the best for all.

        I’m not going to opine here and whether I think they should have gone ahead or not with this at this time. This isn’t the place for that discussion (Covid page is, however). But as it is going on, I am watching and hoping everybody does well and stays safe. 🙂

        1. These Olympics might as well been held in 2020 as scheduled. The health risks seem exactly the same. The only difference would have been a different FLOTUS leading, perhaps.

    1. No big time heat in any of those extended forecasts you posted. I know it is still early but will the worst heat of meteorological summer be the bookend heat waves we had in June???

      1. Hopefully that intense heat doesn’t return but I wouldn’t bet on it. That heat dome out west has to come eastbound sooner or later as a natural west-to-east zonal flow progression of seasons (summer-to -fall) if nothing else.

  15. Thanks for posting that Vicki. I had forgotten about that.
    Next Wed it is hard to believe it will be 7 years since the EF2 Tornado hit Revere. I believe that happened in the mid to late morning hours that day.

    1. It did happen about then but wow I would not have guessed seven years . I remember sitting at my computer working and old salty seeing the tornado before NWS did.

  17. Maybe about 1 hour early on the initiation of convection today, but that doesn’t change the forecast of isolated to scattered showers & thunderstorms.

    This is not the same pattern we were in before though. A passing disturbance is not the same thing as a front that comes in and sets up shop for a few days. So, when it rains, even if it pours, it isn’t hanging around long.

      1. Goes without saying.
        So long as there is July left and there are precipitation potentials, they have the ability to get there. But the pattern we are in now doesn’t favor it happening so easily.

        The chances of a significant rain shower going right over that rain gauge today is probably under 20%.

        The thing that comes through on Sunday, which now looks a little bit faster to me, as I indicated it may do in today’s discussion, also looks lighter. That will probably be good for a 10th of an inch or less.

        And there is nothing behind that right now that I get too confident of for high enough rain chances to give them a good shot. But beyond a couple days, who knows really?

    1. It was a Tom storm. Three nice crackling claps of thunder and 0,05 inch rain. I’m seeing some nasty hail on the north shore and possibly along the NH and ME seacoast

  20. None of these cells have really been able to sustain themselves for very long, replying on redevelopment to survive. With a freezing level near 9,000 feet though anything that did get going could hail fairly easily and put down some bolts and downpours before it died out. Georgetown MA was under one such cell a short while ago and a rather narrow swath had the ground covered with hailstones.

  21. New weather post! (Sorry for the longer-than-usual delay, WordPress issue, fixed now.)

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