Pattern Change?

223 Comments

6:38PM

More like pattern morph… It’s not sudden. It’s not drastic. We’ve seen a few recent cold shots, and another is coming, with a storm between now and then. But this storm, despite bumping into some cold air at its beginning, is going to bring too much warm air with it for any kind of significant snow in the Boston area, though from southern NH northward may be a different story, depending on the storm’s track. Warm land, warm water, and wind off the water will play a big roll in keeping the air just a touch too warm for any significant snow. This will all take place on Thursday, and following that event will be a shot of colder air for the upcoming long weekend.

Forecast Details for Boston Area…

PRE-DAWN: Cloudy with a few areas of light snow possibly dusting the ground. Low 30-35. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clearing. High 41-46. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 19-24. Wind N 5-10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunshine becoming filtered by high cloudiness at times. High 35-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Overcast. Rain, may begin as a period of snow northwest of Boston. Low 32. High 47.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. AM rain showers. PM snow showers. Low 33. High 44.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 33.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. PM snow showers. Low 17. High 31.

MONDAY – MLK JR. DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 9. High 27.

223 thoughts on “Pattern Change?”

  2. Tk- I am just curious as to why you are not talking about the chance of a big snowstorm say in the timeframe of 1/14- 1/19. Even Bm is talking about it. He thinking 1/17. Tk I think a big one is brewing. check it out.

    1. Just not inclined to going out that far predicting a major snowstorm. I’d rather predict a pattern that could lead to a threat of one. And a big one could just easily miss and bury Long Island and leave us with a dusting… Just too early to tell.

      1. That’s why I like your forecasts, TK. Keep it up, you do a fantastic job. Love the site.

        I hope your Dad is doing all-right, and your Mom is coping, too. I’m dealing with similar issues with my folks who are about the same age as your parents.

        1. Thanks Joshua. I honestly try my best. I’ve been accused of being arrogant but it’s just confidence. I’m always ready to admit my mistakes, of which there are many. Example, the completely wrong long range forecast heading into winter.

          My parents are doing alright. Dad is up and about, still not 100% but getting there. Hope your parents are well!

        1. We shall see. I haven’t done a whole lot of detailed event prediction beyond 5 days in over 20 years and I’m not really seeing myself starting to do it now. 🙂

  3. the warmest day of the week will be tomorrow. Looking at a possible light winter weather event turning to rain. nothing that will stop traffic
    areas in southeast mass and the coast rain, areas inside 495 and south of the pike an early mix thursday early morning. no accumulations
    high terrain of the berkshires and worcester hills a few inches will be possible thursday morning before a flip to rain. We need to watch this as the tracks have been making the storm colder and colder. this storm is good for ski country.

  4. What would happen if Thursday’s storm tracks just outside the benchmark? Hmmm.

    TK…at least snow “falling” in Boston given that scenario?

    1. Maybe some at the start. Not enough cold air around to overcome the warming influence of wind off the water.

  5. tonight. cloudy lows in the upper 20s
    tuesday more clouds than sun highs in the mid 40s
    tuesday night becoming clear lows in the low 20s
    wednesday more clouds than sun highs in the upper 30s
    wednesday night increasing clouds lows in the upper 20s to low 30s chance of rain or snow.
    thursday mostly cloudy mix to/ or just plain rain. highs in the upper 30s to low 40s( I think there will be alot of now casting wednesday night and thursday morning. Everyone should watch it. where ever the warm front reaches will be the deciding factor. On if southern new england sees only rain or a mix and how long the mix lasts. right now models are trending colder.
    thursday night mostly cloudy a chance of rain and/ or snow showers lows in the low 30s and upper 20s
    friday. cloudy temperatures falling highs in the low 40s dropping through out the afternoon
    friday night. mainly clear lows in the low 20s and upper 10s
    saturday. partly sunny highs in the low 30s
    saturday night. clear lows in the upper 10s
    sunday. sunny highs in the upper 20s
    sunday night clear lows in the low to mid 10s
    monday. sunny highs in the mid to upper 20s.

  6. Thanks TK!

    Looking at the nam clearly boundary layer temps are going to be hard to overcome. But boy do the next 10 days look interesting! Plenty of cold air coming in and several opportunities out there.

    Joshua that’s why I enjoy TK forecasts, little hype unless warranted. He leaves that up to us non pros:)

  7. I think we will be looking at a snowstorm/ plowable at that from say anywhere from Sunday to Thursday. My first guess would be Sunday and second would be tuesday. I have already postponed plans for Sunday. There was a storm showing yesterday that went out to sea, I think. Not sure on that yet. The cold air will be in place Friday night. I feel 100% certain this takes place in the timeframe mentioned above, If not I will be the first to say I was wrong. I do not think that will be the case. I suspect the models will be picking up on this more in the coming days. They already are. I also suspect we may have starting with the rain storm on Thursday a parade of them coming in, size to be determined. I also think snow for Sunday/not snowshowers. That is why I pick the 15th date. And was in this thinking since last night, as you saw in my previous posts. After reading BMS post he is in the same thinking sort of. He is suspecting after the 15th and maybe storm 17th. Give or take a day or two in this timeframe. Again It is going to be cold Saturday night with a forcasted low of 19. Again I will eat my words if I am wrong.

    1. We get it, your gut tells you its going to snow. Of course it will someday. We get it. I wish you would eat your keyboard. 🙂

  8. I’m sorry to be stupid, but can someone explain the term “benchmark storm”? Does it refer to a track that must be closely watched because small movements can have a big effect on the rain/snow line? That’s my best guess. Again, sorry if I sound like an idiot!

    1. The benchmark is at about 40 north latitude and 70 west longitude, a bit southeast of Nantucket. By looking back at many decades of storms, it has been identified as the track that gives the area its best chance of snow during the cold season. Track further northwest, rain becomes involved, track further southeast, precip less likely to affect the area.

    2. Christie, you should never think a weather question is too trivial to ask, which is why I love this blog so much. I don’t believe for a second that any member on this blog would ever fault you or anyone else for wanting to further understand the wonderful world of weather. Just one of the many reasons why this blog is the best!

      1. Thanks for your support, Shotime. I love this blog, too — been reading it for the last year or so. The things I’ve learned on here are wonderful!

        1. shotime is right… Nobody is going to know every answer, and asking will usually get you an answer that’s reasonably accurate, and if it so happens nobody knows it, we’ll all have fun finding it out. 😉

        2. Christie I agree. Everyone is terrific when it comes to helping me understand. And when you or others ask I learn from the answer to those questions too 🙂

  9. My instinct says that the 0z models will edge back a bit to the northwest on the track of Thursday’s storm, not a ton, but some. I also think accumulating snow will be found on a northeast/southwest oriented line from Portland, ME to Manchester, NH to Keene, NH points N and W. Worcester may whiten the ground before changing. Coastal MA will still rise into the low 40s, even with an east wind backing towards northeast.

    2. A “semi-permanent buckle” in the jet stream? Ok…

      Also, if the pattern is changing, it’s not this upcoming storm that’s doing it. It’s a much larger scale operation.

  11. After reviewing both the 00z NAM & 00z GFS, I’m not changing anything (again). Though, truth be told – I probably wouldn’t change anything based on a GFS run anyway.

  12. Speaking of learning something, is there a met definition of a snow squall? I ask because I saw it just now in the Accuweather write-up.

    1. The NWS defines it this way:

      A snow squall is an intense, but limited duration, period of moderate to heavy snowfall, accompanied by strong, gusty surface winds and possibly lightning (generally moderate to heavy snow showers). Snow accumulation may be significant.

      1. As you can see, they don’t put number limits on duration of snow, wind speed, or snow amount. Those parts of the definition are somewhat fuzzy.

        1. Yes, I noticed that — it is much different than the definition of a blizzard which seems to be very exact.

  17. thursday storm all rain inside of 495 and south of the mass pike no accumulations. wintery mix of rain,snow and sleet for areas north of the mass pike outside of 495. with the high terrain starting as snow then changing to a mix. light snow accumulations. this what i think as of right now.The warm front makes it to southern new hamphire and vermont

    Also I do not see anything on the models suggesting a storm this upcoming holiday weekend.

    1. John, if you took my comment above as rude, then I apologize. It was not my intent.

      DS, I had to look up the word “Antithesis”. LOL.

    2. John took my husband almost twice as long to get to work from here. My kids left at 6:45 and I think they are still on the road. How do you do it on Rt 3 every day?

        1. John my husband is on 3 at about 5:30 – and it took him 90 minutes to get to Watertown. On Thursday my guess is he will be on it at 5:00. It’s just the two of us down here until Friday night so he can have a quiet and early night and head out earlier.

          1. Today was a slower because of the snow. I catch a 5:45 train out of Quincy. I thought I would miss It today, but made it. I get home at night about 5pm. At work now LOL.

  19. Inch here in Marblehead, only the euro picked up on this small event, while the NAM and GFS had nothing. Will this be the same for Thursday’s storm?

  20. NWS talks about the fact that euro/nam are colder thermal profiles vs. GFS but it still looks too warm inside 495. I wish I could say otherwise but not much of a chance as of now.

  22. Dusting in Humarock but clouds that were sitting over ocean have moved inland and I can only see 2 houses away.

  25. wow, another sugar coating! that’s two this month.

    Marchand–five games–yikes.

    TK, wind does not seem like it’s going to be an issue on Sat. night for the Pats. Can you confirm? Being forced into a running game becasue of wind won’t help them obviously.

  26. NAM is showing nearly equal snow, sleet and freezing rain qpf for next event for here. Frankly, I’d rather it just be all rain if not all snow. I hate those ‘junk’ storms.

  29. My guess is that we have a big snowstorm next Tues. Why? Because that is the day I have to take my husband to the hospital for a colonoscopy!

        1. I had four last year and had to reschedule two in the winter. I actually have them down to a science and no longer mind them. I do the older prep at my request and it’s far easier than the new one IMHO AND the best part is my doctor lets me drink ensure (only 4 but it tastes like the finest wine money can buy)

          Great topic – ugh!

          1. When I had it a few yrs. ago the prep wasn’t too bad – two little bottles. Since then they’ve gotten rid of that and now I guess it depends on the patient and what the doctor decides.

            Anyway – let’s change the topic! Hope you had a good wknd., Vicki. We had a good wknd., too. We visited my husband’s cousins down in Hingham. Although I lived in Framingham for many years, both my husband and I are originally from the South Shore.

            1. rainshine – you were just “down the street” from us. I do love the south shore. Although it took my kids two hours to get to Framingham this morning. I am amazed that a little snow made the ride that much longer.

  30. I am seeing quite a disparity for Weds high temps among TV mets. In fact, one met had a high of 40 for tomorrow and has now changed it to 32.

  31. Because my son lives in Chicago, I ‘m always interesting in their weather. You think we’ve had crazy up and down weather? How’s this for crazy ~ low to mid 50’s today and tomorrow, and then winter begins! The city will be looking at it’s first accumulating snowfall of the season. With any hope… we’re next inline!

  32. 32 deg, a very light sugar coating here in pla Ed but I suspect will evaporate/melt over next 30- to an hr

  34. The snow that occurs way out in the interior will be MINOR (under 4 inches) I would favor elevated areas for this. Rainorma for everyone else. It will feel like January this weekend but then its looks like some warm air aloft pushes in for early next week. Still don’t see any big snow threats:(

  35. The NAM does show some snow on the front end. JJ I think it depends on what interior area you are talking about. If the NAM track verifies there will be some areas in the interior that come in with more then 4 inches.

  37. There was an EF1 tornado in the Houston, TX area yesterday. With that and all that snow up in Alaska – as well as some snow in DC area and we are still snowless, it really seems like the weather is really weird. With just my own personal thoughts and feelings, I still believe that we will get our share of big-time snow in Feb. and March.

  40. The NAM does give a good dumping of snow for NNE, the mountains do very well which is great news.

    The 12Z NAM does bring in some precip on Friday, but again temps are marginal. TK pointed out that it will take time to cool down so again maybe a rain on Friday vs. any snow.

  43. You beat me to it, below the HWO

    HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

    THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY THAT A WINTER WEATHER
    ADVISORY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AND/OR ICE WILL BE NEEDED FOR A
    PORTION OF THE INTERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE
    IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD
    OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

    THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY THAT A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
    NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
    SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

    THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE
    TIME OF HIGH TIDE THURSDAY ALONG THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST

  44. The 12z NAM does have something for Friday night that the GFS was advertising.
    Looks like the coastline is going to get robbed of some good snows for Thursday storm. It seems the mountains up north will get some much needed snow at least.

  45. Even the Euro has backed off on Snow (for coast) for next event.
    Not expecting any near the coast. Ho Hum. At least up North should get
    something, which is great for them. They need it.

    Still wating.

    The 1/4 inch dumping of today doesn’t count!

    1. Hadi I suspect It may show the weekend storm. Like I said give or take a day or two. As you can see may be pushed back to friday.

  48. With this storm wind dirrection is key. how far does the warm front go. How much precipitation occurs before the warm front goes through . is it a bench mark storm or futher out . further out = more wintery weather.
    i think a winter storm watch will be issued for parts of the interior for light snow and ice.

    1. i should have added right now areas around rt 2 and in the high terrain has the best chance of snow accumulations

  49. 12 z gfs continues to show cold, but when any storm appears it gets warm. I think this sure looks like the trend for the foreseable future in January. Unless the 12z is totaly off in the long range.

    1. I agree Hadi. The pattern just sloshes some cold around here and there but nothing deep and lasting. Looks about average with milder with each storm.

      By Jan. 28, the average daily highs start going the other way.

      I do want a few good storms but it has been nice being able to toss the football around with my son however. no boots, no salt etc…

  50. Our good friend HM in his morning video pretty much said the GFS is wrong for this storm and cold is coming and will stick around:)

    1. yeah, he seems to be all in on that and maybe he’s right but if we make it to February relatively unscathed, I mean, wow.

  51. Beyond unreal, I still think we get a couple big storms. We have had plenty of stroms just not the cold and I see the storm pattern continuing!

    1. Can’t you just see one winding up on us sometime in March. You know, one of those heavy wet snow bombs.

  52. The weather always to balances itself out so while it has been mild for a while we will eventually pay for it. I just hope it comes in the form of snowstorms instead of a cool wet spring.

      1. Here you there DS. I can’t tell you how many vacations we’ve been to on the cape where it’s rained for three days and cold. So many in fact we started driving south for our summer vacations for the past few years where heat and warm water are guaranteed. We’re actually booking for coastal Georgia this week. (we’ve gone to a different southern east coast beach each year)

        1. Absolutely. We’ve opted for Lake Norman in NC this year over the cape. Guaranteed sunshine around these parts seems to have become spotty in the past couple years. Or maybe I’m just more aware of it!

          1. Sounds like fun—Tybee Island for us.

            You’re more aware of it. Especially since it costs a fortune to do anything theses days and so it better be nice out right.

  53. 12Z Euro IS back with some snow even for Boston. GEM looks to be colder as well, although UKMET is warmer. I think the JURY is still out on this system.
    Maybe, just maybe that HIGH to the North will exert its influence on this system
    and keep it cold enough all the way to the immediate Boston Area.

    I know I am grasping at Straws. Hey, that Euro is supposed to be reliable? No?

  54. I was just going to say that OS, who knows what to think except to remember what JMA said about climatology prior to the storm, they way the pattern has been. And looking at hose I have to think rain is the main player.

    1. Generally, I would agree, However, I have seen very funky things happen
      with that HIGH parked to the North. Just don’t know HOW much of an
      influence it will have. From the model runs, it seems to wnat exert its influence.

      We shall see. You’re probably right about a rain event for Boston. AS I said,
      I am grasping at straws looking for anyway possible.

      1. Forgot to say, althouh it was implied. That HIGH to the North
        has been ABSENT for all of the previous events that went the
        other way (RAIN!). So we’ll see. Still hoping.

  57. 12 Z EURO to my untrained eye has the same theme going, cold shots and when storms appear it warms up ahead and cold right after……….. BLAH

    1. I think there will have to be a shift in the model runs, before you would
      see that. But, hey, you never know.

  63. ARGHHHH>…… from NWS at Taunton:

    INCREASING ELY LOW LEVEL JET WILL QUICKLY WARM THE BL
    RESULTING IN MAINLY RAIN NEAR THE COAST…BUT PTYPE WILL BE
    PROBLEMATIC FURTHER IN THE INTERIOR WHERE COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TO START. A PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR LATE WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING…BEFORE A TRANSITION TO ICE THEN RAIN OCCURS FROM S TO N AS MID LEVEL WARMING MOVES NWD ACROSS REGION.

  67. Scott I might throw out the GFS, but not sure we can do that with the EURO. Why you think we should throw it out?

    1. Regarding what the 12z EURO is showing for next Tuesday with the warm surge, a bit skeptical about that.

      1. I think the Euro has the right idea, given we still face low amplitude and we’ll be coming out of the weekend cold shot. Tuesday should be the mild day.

    1. JJ, Agreed on that. Not sure about WSW. Depends upon HOW much of
      that cold air gets in and the track of the storm, which are related to be sure.

  69. I say WWA for interiors areas for SNE and everywhere from SNH up WSW. I would say places like central Maine are the jackpot with close to 12 inches!!!

    1. Gray, Me office indicates ONLY 3-5 inches farther North.
      Check it out. They indicate that the main surface low Shears and weakens.

      1. I’m siding a bit with Gray. They are excellent.

        I think the Euro may be too slow with the sfc low. NAM may be slightly fast, but is closer, IMO.

  72. There’s a reason I don’t jump too soon…

    No major snowstorms and no sustained cold through next week.

    Cold shots, yes. Sustained? No.

    No good amplitude at the right place, no surfaces highs in the right locations for significant snow in SNE.

    There is a reason CPC went near to above normal in temps for most of the eastern US in the 8-14 day yesterday. Alaska = cold. Not enough amplitude in the jet … TOO MUCH Pacific air. Lack of snowcover means airmasses modify very easily.

  73. The 12z GFS is not the best run, but is really just its typical disorganized self as the run goes out in time. It does have a decent idea on the lack of amplitude, however.

    The 12z Euro is somewhat reasonable.

    We do need to watch Sunday for a little snow event possibly.

    2. Tk this is the one that I felt strongly about, even postponing plans for sunday, as I think I will be doing snowremoval. If this plays out the way I think It will, we could have a few good inches. Funny though none of the mets seem to have this, I will see what Pete has to say in his blog. I also wonder on if that storm that showed for this sunday really went out to sea. I suspected that snowshowers forcasted for Sunday were underforcasted.

  77. I find the Grey office in Maine is outstanding, right to the point and little wish wash on their part. They know what they are dealing with and talking about all the time.

    1. I have met 2 of the guys from Grey at conferences in the past. They are very professional but also very friendly.

  78. I’m trying to follow the conversation but want to clarify. My husband was thinking of switching a vacation day he’d planned while we are here for the month to this Thursday to avoid a nasty drive up route 3 if there is going to be more snow.

    Does it seem now that it will be just rain – no slippery type stuff??

    Thank you!

  79. 4:15pm and I can see some sunlight hitting the tops of the trees across the street. About one month again, sunset was 4:11pm….

    In spite of mid 40s, we got enough snow this morning, that there are a few patches of snow, here and there, in the shady spots.

  80. I’m going to copy and paste a post I made on a former coworker’s FB page last night and his reply, as a summary of my general thoughts (and his) on this pattern. I will not use his name for privacy reasons, but let it be known that I believe him to be one of the best in the business.

    Me: “Hi (name)! A lot of do-it-yourself mets are advertising major pattern change coming, some (who I will not name here) are even talking about sustained cold for up to a month down as far as the Middle Atlantic. Although I agree that we are able to tap some cold air for brief shots of cold (maybe up to 2 1/2 days tops) and maybe we may not get back to the +6 anomalies in between, I can’t really buy into the sustained cold and especially the sudden snowy pattern idea at this point. A few things that concern me are, but are not limited to, Alaska staying cold, lack of amplitude (especially ridge in western N America), and lack of snowcover in a large chunk of the US allowing air masses to moderate more than might be seen in January. In your meteorological opinion, do you believe this is a fair assessment?”

    Him: “I see absolutely nothing wrong with your reasoning and agree with you completely. Almost no snow cover exists between here and Alaska (which is nuts when you think about it). One area that is deeply snow covered is northern Quebec and the western Maritimes but there isn’t any significant cold brewing in that area. I think we continue to see brief tastes of cold air with frequent warmups in between and I’m not even so sure the +6 anomalies don’t keep coming. I think there is an element out there that wants it to be cold and snowy like the past few winters (well, at least snowy like the last few winters since it never was all that cold despite the high snow totals) and they are growing increasingly frustrated that it isn’t happening. I think they’ll eventually give up the hope and realize that every now and then even here in New England we get a few sh** winters.”

    NOTE: The “do it yourself mets” I was referring to are not on this blog. It’s just a figure of speech for mets that I know of, or know personally, who have content viewable by many. I won’t name any of them here either as they have a right to their own opinions and privacy.

  81. Winter Storm Watches up for parts of the interior of SNE.
    Snow Index right now is a 1 for areas under the winter storm watch since I don’t think there will be more than 4 inches of snow but stay tuned on this.
    This will not be a Major Snowfall.

  82. Thanks for sharing. I guess we really might end with no snow. Only time will tell.

    What does your gut tell you TK?

        1. For now it’s more of the same with brief cold shots. February holds some promise, as does March.

    1. ice is in volved .also winter storm watch is posted when they see a good chance of advisory or warning level criteria. In this case many will be under an advisory levels.

      1. I kno the criteria but it does not match up to what is used for WSW. The ice is a trace so I am just surprised it extends that far south. SNH totals in the look impressive though.

  85. precipitation thoughts
    nothing inside of 495 and south of the pike might start as a mix around 495 but light precipitation.
    up to 3 inches lower locations outside of 495 and north of the pike. a period of snow early then a mix through the morning comute rain in the afternoon
    3 to 6 inches in the higher terrain snow to a mix in the morning. mix in the afternoon more rain and freezing rain though in the afternoon with snow and sleet mixing int.
    mainly snow southwest new hampshire and southern vt up into ski country . patches of rain freezing rain and sleet in with the snow.
    6+ southwest new hampshire and southern vt up into ski country.

    1. i should also include that a broad area of freezing rain/ sleet is possible across most of northern mass including around 495

  86. Is the 18z GFS seriously trying to develop a tropical system here?
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20120110%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_372_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=372&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=01%2F10%2F2012+18UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=95&nextImage=yes

  87. Here are my thoughts:

    I believe if this were a normal winter a storm passing over the CC Canal would produce at least “some” snow for Boston before a changeover to rain…not the case this time with this strange winter in spite of the cold shot tomorrow just ahead of the storm.

    Thanks TK for that long post. Even before I read it, I started to have my doubts on the big pattern change after just looking at the latest CPC which shows warmth returning in earnest after the MLK weekend cold shot.

    Winter of 2011-12 = THE END?? 🙁

    1. It’s not the end, as there is still February and March out there. And March doesn’t often follow the rules of the rest of the winter. So don’t completely rule snow out.

      1. Tk I am trying to figure out the models/ should say learning how to read. Could you please talk to me on Sundays event. If I am reading right I keep seeing somthing trying to form, I even scratched my plans for sunday planning on plowable snow, was that the right thing to do or not. I know I told you I suspected more than snowshowers. None of the mets have snow for the weekend. I know somthing is there and you had also made mention of this today as a watcher. What do you see, and what are the chances of a plowable storm on Sunday or even Monday.

        1. The Euro has been fairly consistent on a shortwave coming along during Sunday. There is not much of a surface reflection of this feature, but it could be enough to kick off some snow shower activity. I would not expect this to evolve into a widespread, accumulating event. It’s very progressive.

          1. So to put you on the spot is it safe to say I may be reading wrong and that you see no accumulating snow for sunday? just showers. Because you did say it was a watcher. So maybe I should not postpone my event for Sunday. Thank’s.

            1. Im not tk John but me looking at that for Sunday looks like a minor event with scattered flurries/snowshowers, I don’t see anywhere in our area that would come in over an inch and I would be surprised to see that, have a great day John, 🙂

  88. I am not throwing in the towel on this winter. I still think we get one major Noreaster before the winter is out.
    TK this maybe far out but does my favorite model the Old Farmers’ Almanac have a chance of being correct with their blizzard prediction for the end of January???

    1. I wouldn’t put money on late January at this point. But in reality, that’s beyond reasonable range so anything is possible.

  89. Coastal- could you put your email out again to Bm and WW. They seem to be posting over there as well as the trolls. I think, or I hope maybe If they get reinvited they might just do it. Some odd people posting there. Thank’s.

  90. It sure feels like no winter phillip!! I worry about long term term ie summer of cool and damp conditions.

  91. B’s game 1-1 after 1.

    Just realized that the ice at the Garden is the most ice I’ve seen this winter!

  92. Peeking at current temps/dewpoints in New England, Great Lakes and Eastern Canada……noticed Sioux St. Marie, Michigan is 32F with no real cold air push there. Examining the surface temps and surface wind, I think 95% of tonight’s “cold”, dry air push is much more east, than south…….If tomorrow high’s are closer to 40F than 35F and if the dew points are in the low 20s rather than the mid teens, I think that may be an early indicator that the Massachusetts interior weather advisories are not going to verify.

  95. So looking gefs ensembles, they are much colder then ops run, TK can you shed any light on why the difference between the ops vs. Ensembles. Thanks

    1. I’ve been trying to figure that one out myself, and keep putting it on the back burner, because it’s GFS.

      1. topkatt wasn’t the gfs more correct last winter with all those snow storm and a friend why is the gfs not doing so well?

        1. The Euro did a better job last winter, though the GFS was not as bad as it has been this winter. It did, indeed, hit some storms that the NAM was clueless on, and it did beat the Euro on a couple as well.

          Other than making an educated guess that the GFS performs poorly in +AO/NAO and lack of snow cover patterns, among other things, I’m really not sure what issue it is having.

  97. Its too a point now where people r asking me is everything ok, r we really gonna get no snow this year? I just shake my head and say there’s a good chance jan will go down relatively snowless, as for Feb I’m not sure, but I still think this pattern will bring us the least snowiest or at least a top 2 or 3 least snowiest on record, hope everyone has a good night and Go Patriots 🙂

    1. As for January being snowless, it depends on how much snow Boston received this morning…no info on that until tomorrow morning. My bet is that there will be no more snow events for the rest of the month into the first half of February.

      The 2nd half of February into March = last chances for “meaningful” snow.

  98. I think gfs is gonna end up being too warm with it’s thermal profile. I think a nam/ euro combo is the way to go. So we haven’t bet on anything recently so let’s have at it.

    What ends being the highest snow total in our region, in inches? No need for location but total amount.

    1. 0 (maybe a coating, tops) Accumulating snow Manchester, NH northward.

      Burlington, VT is 29F with a northerly breeze. Other than that, most other spots are 32F or better with a west wind. Time and again, the “cold air” this winter has been slower to arrive than the models predict. Also, I think the ocean influence will beat the majority of the precip.

        1. 6 inches…..Laconia, NH or Poland Springs, ME…which, if I recall from a camping trip a handful of years ago is about 50-70 miles north of the Sebago Lake region.

  100. Pete Bouchard has pretty much given up already on January. He sees no sustained cold for the rest of the month…a few brief cold shots then warmth and he doesn’t seem to hold out much hope for February and March either.

  101. I think you meant to say that he holds no hope for januray but unsure for Feb/march.

    Lotta folks asking, “When will it be cold enough to put in my backyard ice rink?” Long range charts ARE NOT showing prolonged cold as in past winters. Best we can “hope” for are 2-4 days of subfreezing high temps, followed by warmups with rain. This is the predominant pattern that I’m seeing through late January. February and March may hold out hope, but the question becomes will it be worth it.

    Today at 5:26pmAsk Pete Bouchard a Question | Share

    1. Just my opinion….dont be !! The atmosphere hasnt allowed it yet, but the arctic is filled with tons of frigid air, Hudson Bay is frozen until May…..there’s a ton of time left for snow.

    2. This is a winter that I’ve never seen in my life of living in New England, extremely late foliage, still had leaves on my trees around thanksgiving, a pond that is not frozen, I mean it’s really running out of time, I mean snow in Feb or Mar is not like snow in Dec or Jan.

    1. Hi Hadi.

      True. For example, and I’m not a big advocate of the detailed point forecasts, but in looking at them tonight, there is forecaster expectation that the dewpt in Boston tomorrow will be 14F during mid afternoon. That tells me that the forecast for frozen precip locally tomorrow night is somewhat dependent on cool, dry air being in place over the interior. I guess I’m thinking that it wont be as cool or dry tomorrow and by tomorrow evening, in advance of the precip, we’ll see coastal temps and dewpoints above 32F with inland temps near 32F and dewpoints in the upper 20s and a freshening ocean breeze that wont allow for much wintery precip in the local area.

  104. I don’t see the winter storm watches posted going to warnings in SNE unless this low goes further south than currently projected. Will see what the 0z runs have to say which should be coming out soon.

    1. I agree. During their morning package, usually posted btwn 4 to 6 am, I think some of the Massachusetts winter storm watches could be downgraded to advisories, if not outright cancelled.

      1. I was going to make mention of this myself. They were put up too far east to begin with, in my opinion.

      2. Probably winter weather “advisories” at most will be posted. Even in the far northern areas of SNE snow amounts won’t be particularly high.

  105. Working on a new blog. This one is rather lengthy and will probably not be posted until after 11PM, but I am shooting for before 11PM if possible.

  106. I also agree that WSW should be downgraded in SNE but in SNH and northward you might see the amounts needed.

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