Monday July 26 2021 Forecast (7:47AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JULY 26-30)

Humidity drops, temperature goes up to start this week off. Today will be the pick of the week for combination of warmth but lack of mugginess as high pressure builds in from the Ohio Valley. This air is warm, but its origin was from dry places. Today will be a day free of any kind of rain threat too. Great beach day (hmm, that sounds like a great idea to me!). 😉 While we are no longer in the really wet July pattern we were in for the first 2/3 of the month, we are still in a somewhat active pattern and will be visited by a couple of systems bringing threats of wet weather, but these are passing systems and not lingering ones, as the pattern is rather progressive. The first threat comes later Tuesday as a cold front approaches with a shower and storm chance which will occur mostly later in the day, so a good part of the day can be enjoyed without the threat of such activity messing with your plans. These showers and storms will exit during Tuesday evening and high pressure builds in from Canada for Wednesday with dry, cooler weather. But the next disturbance is fast approaching behind that and Thursday looks like an unsettled day with a warm front / cold front combo bringing a couple rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms. This exits at night, and Friday will be better, but not perfect, as an upper level low crossing the region with a pool of colder air aloft can and probably will trigger a few isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms that day – still though there’s a good probability that most of that day is rain-free in any one location. One other thing we will see a bit more of again this week is rounds of wild fire smoke from both the western US and Canada, as the jet stream will be in position once again to carry them across our sky.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90, cooler Cape Cod. Dew point drops through 60s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches interior low elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Mid to late afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 78-85. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew upper 60s evening falling to near 60 overnight. . Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH evening, shifting to N overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point near 60. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 57-64. Dew point middle 50s, rising toward 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Dew point rising through 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms evening. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 76-83. Dew point near 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

The July 31 / August 1 weekend should be mostly dry overall but a fast-moving trough or front may interrupted it briefly with a shower threat. Humidity should remain rather low for those days. Humidity up-ticks thereafter with another shower or thunderstorm possible at times in a weak westerly flow with minor disturbances early next week (August 2-4).

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 5-9)

Typical early August warmth / borderline heat at times, moderate to higher humidity, but limited opportunities for showers and thunderstorms in a weaker westerly air flow for the first part of this period, then a stronger disturbance may bring a better chance of some unsettled weather after that.

42 thoughts on “Monday July 26 2021 Forecast (7:47AM)”

  8. Thanks, TK.

    I’m looking forward to the humidity decreasing! It still felt plenty muggy on my walk this morning, and there were plenty of enthusiastic gnats…

    2. I have a sign up on the deck that it is a gnat restricted area 😉

      DP is still 68 here. Temp is 83.

  10. Logan is up to 88. MUCH higher than ALL surrounding locations.
    Perhaps it is obs timing issues, but it STICKS OUT!!

  11. The smoke from those wildfires is extremely heavy in my area right now. Very hazy out with a real heavy smell of smoke. There are multiple calls being placed to the local fire departments reporting heavy smoke.

  12. I agree, it seems like it came in heavily in the last 3 hours. It’s simply amazing how the smoke particles can ride the jet stream from such a distance and still have that level of potency.

  13. We are getting the smoke here in Sudbury. We can actually smell it. Definitely looks weird out.

  16. Thanks TK.

    Absolutely PUTRID outside as Dave would say. Thick smoke here in Manchester CT as well with very poor visibility. Smells awful outside too. I actually checked the news stations first to see if there was a building or factory fire nearby. If it is this bad here, I can’t imagine what it is like out west.

    1. Mark, we checked here also. I also thought my windows needed cleaning. They didn’t. It is nuts.

    2. I don’t remember if it was this summer or last, but I recall looking at pictures and videos from Seattle and wondering how the folks out there were breathing without issue.

  18. The models, medium and long range keep projecting some deep trofs with occasional 850 mb temp drops belonging more to Labor Day weekend or a little after.

    I’m pretty sure 7-10 days ago, today and tomorrow we’re projected a lot cooler than they turned out, so while I do agree with a western ridge, eastern trof set-up, I don’t think these trofs will be as deep or cool as projected once they come closer to the short range projections.

    A pattern though, I would think, that’s conducive to more smoke plumes in the days ahead.

  19. From our town’s fire department FB page:
    “We have been getting calls about smoke in the area from all over town. We have investigated and have found nothing. We will keep you posted if we do.”

    Are they really driving around looking for something burning?

  20. Great beach day today. Hampton was awesome.

    Could smell some smoke at times on the way home.

    The thickest part of this smoke plume is about to depart.

  24. Nome, Alaska averages 17.22″ of rain for the entire year. July and August are their “wet” months, with normals of 2.35″ and 3.22″ respectively. Their record for July is 8.43″ in 1920 and August is 8.58″ in 1998. They’ve received 2.40″ so far in July.

    Here are the current model forecasts for the next 10/15 days:

    ECMWF (10 days): 8.8″
    ECMWF Ensemble (15 days): Mean 10.1″/Control 13.0″
    GFS (15 days): 5.1″
    GFS Ensemble: (15 days): Mean 6.2″/Control 7.2″
    Canadian (10 days): 8.3″
    Canadian Ensemble (15 days): Mean 5.9″/Control 6.1″

  25. Good evening everyone, been really busy as of late, some of you know that I been in California the last several week. Man is it dry out there, even along the coast. Bodega Marine Lab is usually in the 50s and 60s, with fog/drizzle being consistant. The grass there is usually 2 to 4 feet tall but havent been like that for over 4 years they said. Right now its no more than a few inches and is brown even with the maritime air that comes in at night. It was in the 60s for most of the time with not a single drop of water. Bodega has been evacuated the last two years due to the smoke from near by fires. I am now back On St. Thomas but my Dad took this neat picture of the moon this evening. Its red/orange because of the smoke/particular matter in the air. https://twitter.com/Souza101Matt/status/1419864564884283392

    1. …NY/New England…
      Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop by midday over
      parts of western NY and/or adjoining ON, along and south of the
      front. Activity should increase in coverage and move mostly
      eastward across central/eastern portions of NY and south-central New
      England through the afternoon, its movement aligned with an
      instability gradient and boundary-layer moist axis. Damaging to
      locally severe wind gusts will be the main concern. Confidence has
      increased that enough large-scale lift (related to the MCV) and
      diurnal low-level destabilization will occur to support maintenance
      of the threat eastward into New England. The 15% wind area has been
      extended accordingly

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