Thursday July 29 2021 Forecast (9:44AM)

74 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

Low pressure approaches from the west today, but a good part of the day will be rain-free other than a few potential pop up showers mainly west of the I-95 belt due to increased moisture combined with daytime heating. The main unsettled weather with this system will occur tonight as an occluded front will be passing through most of the region. The triple-point will be passing in the vicinity of the South Coast, but may remain just to the south, and this is important for determining the chance for severe weather in that region. A strong disturbance coming through from the Midwest brings atmospheric conditions conducive to severe weather including rotating thunderstorms, but it appears most of this and possibly all of this volatility may pass just to the south, but must be monitored closely. Friday, this system will be exiting early in the day and we’ll get into a drier northwesterly air flow, but upper level low pressure crossing the region can still trigger a shower or even brief thunderstorm, a couple of which may produce small hail, but I don’t expect as much of this as we had in a similar but stronger set-up last Friday. Just keep in mind that a quick interruption may occur if you have outdoor plans. The coolest air in quite some time will come into the region Friday night, and if you’re an early riser on Saturday it may feel more like late August to you than the end of July, but Saturday itself will be a very nice day with a temperature recovery and nice dry air. We say hello to August on Sunday while watching for another system approaching from the west, current timing of which suggest that most shower activity will occur Sunday night, leaving most of the daylight hours of Sunday, as it approaches, and Monday, as it moves away, on the dry side.

TODAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. A passing shower possible mainly west of I-95 midday on. Highs 76-83. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH with gusts to 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few showers and possibly a thunderstorm mostly west of I-95 evening. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms, especially south of I-90, overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to N. Potentially stronger winds in any thunderstorms near the South Coast.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible midday and afternoon. Highs 76-83. Dew point near 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy ground fog overnight. Lows 50-57. Dew point falling to upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear except fog patches forming over interior lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly late in the afternoon favoring western areas. Highs 76-83. Dew point rising to near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 77-84. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 3-7)

A weakening of the dominant west northwest air flow, becoming a weaker west to southwest flow as there will also be a tendency for more high pressure off the US East Coast. This opens the door for higher humidity and warmth but no major sustained heat. One boundary should stay to the north with showers and thunderstorms more to the north of our region, but another boundary to the south may lift northward and increase the chance for showers/storms as we get to later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 8-12)

A continuation of more dominant warmth and humidity but with the additional of more shower and thunderstorm opportunities as a frontal boundary hangs around close to the region.

74 thoughts on “Thursday July 29 2021 Forecast (9:44AM)”

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    When the SPC striped the marginal risk Boston South yesterday, I pretty much knew that the main threat would be well South
    of the Boston area and perhaps South of New England altogether.

    Just as well.

    1. I always think it’s a good idea for them to maybe over-extend the area initially then trim it. It’s better than having to add to it, IMO. I know SPC often struggles with New England, but they’ve done pretty well of late.

    2. I agree ……. yet, the 12z (3km) NAM projects some isolated cells in eastern Mass, from Boston southward, projects Logan to see a dewpoint in the upper 60s, and we have a strengthening northern stream low with its own dynamics.

      But, yes, usually the southern developed thunderstorms steal the energy and the show.

  8. Thanks, TK!

    A group of us had a rehearsal in Weston during the storms Tuesday evening and had some trouble hearing one another over thunder, rain, and a howling dog (apparently also a weather feature/hazard).
    Tonight’s is in Milton, so I’m hoping the sky lets us rehearse in peace — not to mention, drive home safely!

  12. Is there a better description than “ Partly sunny to mostly cloudy?”

    It exactly describes today. And now is complete with the passing shower. Now more than a few but definitely a shower

  13. Those “mostly west of I-95” showers are out there now, and so far they are mostly west of I-95. 😉

    1. I made the same reference .. late August instead of late July.
      Gonna be a nice little cool shot.

  16. The dew point is still below 60 in Boston and in some cases well below 60 especially over Southeastern Mass. That won’t last too much longer I don’t think.

    1. That place where it was snowing is located at
      -29.3796468 Degrees South Latitude. That is about the equivalent of Daytona, FL.

  19. So will she or won’t she get the salmon cooked in the grill before the rain settles in? Has to still marinate 45 more minutes.

  20. DOn’t usually see tornado warnings in this part of the country.
    WxWatcher’s NWS Mounty Holly NJ Issued this warning

    * At 606 PM EDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located
    over Washington Crossing, or 9 miles northwest of Trenton, moving southeast at 25 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!
    HAZARD…Damaging tornado.
    SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.
    IMPACT…You are in a life-threatening situation.
    To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadlytornado is developing. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW!

    1. I see that is the one I just mentioned. Oh boy. I’m never clear in where WxW is. Macs cousin lives in flemington and that is west of the risk.

      1. Just to be sure. Is this the system that could cause problems here overnight and into early am? Thank you

            1. Thankfully we are dodging what could have been a bad situation here as some of the folks in NJ are dealing with.

                1. Watching the coverage of wcau tv online one of the meteorologists was saying this is like a day in the Midwest with all these tornado warnings.

  24. The wording from the tornado warning you posted is what we typically see in this part of the country. The other one had wording you would see in the plains. From what I heard where that tornado tracked is densely populated.

    2. WxWatcher glad you are okay. Did you think this area would see a long tracked violent tornado today?

  27. I am no expert but the Bucks County that I posted from NBC Philadelphia looks like EF 2 EF 3 damage.

  29. The videos and the images were seeing are today are not what we usually see from tornadoes in that part of the country. As one person said where this tornado happened was a densely populated area.

  30. We´re all focused on the south coast, meanwhile, parts of western MA, Vermont and NH are having weather issues of flash flooding and severe thunderstorm warnings.

  31. Looping ch 5´s radar, can see the tail of storms in western Mass sinking southeastward, ahead of that, its like its drawing the showers in CT northeastward.

    I´m trying to understand if its this batch of showers, in CT, were supposed to be following along the south coast …… ??

    1. Yikes ……. around the 30 second mark, I wonder if thats a house completely ripped off and having landed on another one.

  33. Looking at some of these videos it reminds of me of the damage we saw when the EF3 tornado struck downtown Springfield.

    1. Indeed ….. I happened to be watching TWC early in the evening and saw when the storms were at their scariest. Excellent hook echo signatures and debris showing up on that other type of radar.

  34. Perhaps Nantucket, the Vineyard and Chatham should be watching the cell SE of Block Island and about 2 or 3 other cells along the south coast of Long Island.

    They would be closest to the warm front and truly oppressive humidity and they are kind of isolated cells.

  35. Lots of heavy rain in Amesbury right now. Very little lightning and thunder, with winds whipping up occasionally. Can’t believe how much rain we have had this month.

  36. 2 cells now with special marine warnings for waterspout potential. The one entering Buzzards Bay and the other up on the north shore.

    Next hour action time for Vineyard, Elizabeth Islands? and Cape

    1. Feel like I see some sign of rotation starting to show on the dopplar radar for the Buzzards Bay cell.

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