Sunday August 1 2021 Forecast (8:32AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 1-5)

August arrives. The final month of meteorological summer will start out in typical fashion, seasonably warm, a little more humidity coming in, plenty of rain-free time but also some rain chances during its opening five days, but those rain chances will be rather limited with a hint of uncertainty. First, we get through 99% of today’s daylight without any rain threat, but we have two systems approaching us from the southwest, one that is going to pass to our northwest and another that is going to pass to our southeast but close enough to produce a generally light rainfall this evening and tonight. However, a swath of heavier rain is expected near the South Coast of RI and especially over the South Coast region of Massachusetts including Cape Cod. This is one place where rain is actually needed as they have been dry there. Elsewhere, there is certainly no dire need for rain and there won’t be much. These system exit Monday and other than a very light chance of a brief pop up shower on a weak trough line passing through, it will be a dry day. High pressure builds in for more dry weather Tuesday and will try to hold through Wednesday as well, but there will be a frontal boundary not far to the south and a little wave of low pressure will try to drag that close to or possibly into the region by Wednesday. For now, keeping this day rain-free, but can’t rule out some rain getting into at least the South Coast and/or eastern MA/RI, depending on how it evolves. So this part of the forecast may be adjusted. This boundary is also expected to hang near the region Thursday as well with better chances for shower activity, again favoring eastern areas. Details of that mid week shower threat will need to be fine-tuned.

TODAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point rising toward 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Heaviest rainfall South Coast of RI/MA especially Cape Cod. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a brief passing shower or thunderstorm. Highs 77-84. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches forming. Lows 62-69. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest South Coast. Dew point middle 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers favoring RI and eastern MA. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point middle 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring RI, eastern MA, and southeastern NH. Highs 75-82. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 6-10)

A southerly air flow will bring additional tropical moisture and an accompanying disturbance will result in a better chance of showers August 6. Warm and humid south southwest flow with a few diurnal showers and thunderstorms possible otherwise mostly rain-free for the August 7-9 time frame before a disturbance from the west brings a better chance of showers and thunderstorms by period’s end.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 11-15)

Air flow becomes more westerly with some up and down temperatures but no lasting major heat expected. A couple shower/thunderstorm opportunities but most of the time looks rain-free.

23 thoughts on “Sunday August 1 2021 Forecast (8:32AM)”

  4. Thanks TK.

    This is the month in which morning darkness gets going (at least for me) as the sunrise inches closer to 6:00 am and beyond shortly thereafter. Oh well.

  10. Not too many people interested in discussing the weather today, so I will…

    No big changes to my forecast from this morning after a review of the 12z guidance.

    A bit deceiving “look” today. Knowing it’s August, and the hazy look gives you the impression that it’s probably warmer and more humid. Reality: Temp in 70s, dew point in 50s and taking its timing rising. Some of that haze is once again high altitude smoke from the ongoing fires far far from here. We’re used to it by now. Eventually it gets more humid with tonight’s shower chance, but still looks like NW of the WHW area for most of the significant rainfall, except Cape Cod which may get some heavier rainfall, and they definitely need it there. Although the HRRR trend has been for the southeastern system to not really produce all that much over recent runs, so that’s something to monitor.

    Lovely days Tuesday, Wednesday, and as it appears now most of Thursday may end up this way as well. A little more humid but not too bad by August standards. We still have a split in guidance regarding the later-week rainfall threat. Canadian keeps everything offshore with no rain. Euro is fairly showery late Thursday through Friday. US model (GFS) is split down the middle with most shower activity Friday, really confined to one day, but not all day.

    Next weekend trend: “Typical” August weather, warm with moderate humidity, slight chance of a few showers/storms but otherwise mainly dry.

    Nothing to add regarding the rest of my blog discussion above.

    Tropics are likely to start getting more active as we move through the next 10 days, but no imminent threats to any land areas for quite some time. We’ll just need to keep an eye on things to activate somewhat after a fairly lengthy period of quiet.

    1. Thank you for the discussion. It’s wetter today and overcast but quite nice. Tons of butterflies now. My hummers are still buzzing around where the hummingbird feeders were. I wasn’t a fan of taking all my feeders down, but I am lucky to have the flowers and grasses on the hill that keep them coming back. It’s like their own little playground. And our butterfly Bush entertains not only the butterflies but the dragonflies.

      1. I saw a lot of butterflies & dragonflies on my midday walk ’round the local pond today. 🙂

        1. Me, too. So many this year.

          As I’ve said before the wildlife and wildflowers have really enjoyed this weather.

          Preparing for my trip. I’ll be spending a lot of time outdoors, regardless of the weather: Waterlow Park, Regent’s Park, and Hampstead Heath. Lots of wildlife, wildflowers, meadows, waterways, and ponds. Fewer oaks and maples, and far fewer evergreens, but more poplars and birch trees.

        2. We didn’t have any butterflies until a few weeks ago. Not just here but in a good portion of the area. It may be this is when the monarchs arrive and then others follow. We have far too many dragonflies to count. Some have fascinating coloring. And the fireflies are brighter this year than I’ve seen.

          It is just wonderful to sit or walk or whatever one chooses and enjoy nature.

            1. They are very quick.
              Yes, that is a damselfly.
              The best ways to tell a damselfly from a dragonfly:
              Damselfly at rest has its wings together like in the photo you posted. Dragonfly has wings out, like a plane. The dragonfly is also generally much larger. 🙂
              You know these, but this is for the benefit of anybody who may not. 🙂

  11. Watching the satellite trend this afternoon … looking more and more like the rain event for the far southeastern reaches of our area may be a fail. Looks like an o.t.s. situation evolving here with minimal rainfall where they need it most in SNE, unfortunately.

    The good news is the potency of the system coming in from the NW should be waning significantly as it arrives into the already-saturated areas.

  13. FYI: Boston / Norton radar is unavailable until further notice due to communication issues at the NWS office.

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