Absolutely NOTHING is making feel better about this
Delta variant, NOTHING.
Longshot and Dr S, I hope you are both healing quickly.
Thanks vicki. I’m pushing through. Cough 99% gone. Bad bad headache today though. But I can deal with it.
Glad you have shaken the cough but so sorry to hear about the headache. You are still comfortable that it was not covid?
Yeah this is similar to annual colds I get. I did one test already. But speaking of tests I noticed a line outside of a testing center this morning – I haven’t seen a line there in at least six months. That’s like a bellweather to me.
You may recall that back in May I was concerned about the death rate in the U.S. compared to the U.K. and other countries. Even though cases then had come down to relatively low levels, we still were experiencing a much higher death rate than our peers. Well, that problem is now magnified in the Delta wave. The relative decoupling between cases and deaths in the U.K., and even between cases and hospitalizations to a lesser degree, is not happening here, at least not nearly to the same extent. In fact, hospitalizations here are already poised to be higher than the first two waves. It’s doubtful hospitalizations will exceed the third wave, but still. https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1422033221177413632
Also of note, CDC has disclosed that as of two weeks ago – before the Delta wave rapidly accelerated – there had been 6,000 hospitalizations among fully vaccinated, an increase of ~2,000 compared to the June 22 report. My guess is the number has probably increased by another 1 to 2,000 over the past two weeks. Still a MUCH smaller chance of hospitalization for the fully vaccinated, but in absolute terms – due to wildfire spread – it’s not a figure one can gloss over.
Nursing homes and assisted living facilities are reporting more new cases than at any time since March. It’s likely that the virus is `targeting’ the weakest and most vulnerable once again. Boosters for these folks are an absolute necessity. Israel knows this and is acting, accordingly. Why aren’t we?
This is just so sad on many different levels, Joshua. How many times in the past few months have we said that what we were seeing in other countries would eventually be here. I agree with JPD. I’m not seeing anything to make me feel better right now. In good part, it is because WE are ignoring all that has been learned from other countries…and has been shown by a horrific event in our own state, from our own country
Philip, I’m not finding that Provincetown is improving. It doesn’t mean it isn’t, but I can’t find anything. The latest I can find is in the NYT two days ago. The cases went to over 900. I was surprised to learn the town is 95% vaccinated.
They did move the mask advisory to a mandate. I’m absolutely not criticizing or second guessing. They (townspeople, those in charge, tourists) did what we were told we could do. What I am amazed by is that this is not a learning moment. We don’t know how much of this would have been avoided if the mandate and other restrictions had been in place. It would be silly to think it wouldn’t have made a difference.
Philip, I don’t know if you have free times for NYT. I hope you have at least a few
Sorry Joshua. With the NYT it’s either “subscribe” or “goodbye”. I chose the latter. I guess it’s the price we pay for online news these days.
As for Provincetown, it was reported on WBZ 4 news yesterday morning, but obviously it was not correct. I guess we can no longer trust our traditional radio/tv news stations (local or national) all the time for correct information anymore, certainly not with regard to this virus.
It was me who posted nyt. It is difficult to keep it all straight. Sorry about that. It is possible the numbers are coming down and I just didn’t find it.
Oops! Sorry about that Vicki. Don’t worry about it. I was somewhat suspicious anyway that numbers would be coming down so quickly, regardless of the measures taken.
Article says CDC does not consider Martha’s Vineyard an area of high risk. Does anyone want to tell the cdc that 95% of Ptown was vaccinated and that there were 0 covid cases before July 4. Makes me wonder what they consider high risk
And how many travel by ferry with the usual tourists?
This is beyond irresponsible.
I give up. I really do. The country has gone nuts
Agreed! Our friends are going nuts doing things they should NOT be doing. Thus we do not see them.
Question. At the start of covid, we were told the virus lives in certain surfaces for hours to days depending on the surface. Is there still evidence that this is true and can you get covid by touching a contaminated surface?
Thank you, Dr. I still remove food from take our containers and put on my own plates. My fine China of choice is usually disposable;) But have stopped a good amount of what I’d been doing. I appreciate your links.
I do the same with containers. I also only really disinfect if I touch high traffic surfaces. I remember this time last year we were still tossing out cardboard boxes to stay in the sun for a day and disinfecting groceries. Better to be overprepared than to be not prepared at all!
Seems we are on the same track. I like your last sentence.
Two people in our building have cold/flu like symptoms. One of them is going to be taking care of my cat. We decided to video conference for instructions, given that I’ll be traveling later this week.
I’ve heard of many others, including several friends of mine, who’ve been getting sick with norovirus and/or colds.
Speaking of lines and wait times, I’ve been warned that the place I was going to get a Covid test at is having long lines. I’ve now opted for a self-pay option closer by, in my neighborhood. In the end I’ll be paying about $350 for 3 Covid tests for this trip.
Am always a bit apprehensive about traveling/flying (gotten worse over the years), but this time my stress level is really high. My latest worry is I test positive in England and can’t come back. Not worried so much about getting sick as testing positive. There are worse places to be, but I literally can’t afford to stay there in a hotel for at least 10 days.
Best of luck.
More than 99.99% of people fully vaccinated against Covid-19 have not had a breakthrough case resulting in hospitalization or death, according to the latest CDC data.
That is not what I have been seeing and frankly I do not trust CDC data any more. They typically report on OLD data.
We shall see. I sincerely hope that stat is correct, but I fear it is not.
The way they botched the masking after vaccination is enough for me NOT to trust them. I’ll continue to do what is best for me and the Mrs.
Some data from the UK
Out of 229,218 COVID infections in the United Kingdom between February and July 19, 28,773 — or about 12.5% — were in fully vaccinated people. Of those breakthrough infections, 1,101, or 3.8%, required a visit to an emergency room, according to Public Health England. Just 474, or 2.9%, of fully vaccinated people required hospital admission, and 229, or less than 1%, died.
Saying a vaccinated person doesn’t get seriously ill discounts the fact that many don’t know they have covid and their viral load is equal to that of the unvaccinated. They carry the same danger of spreading as the unvaccinated. Ptown is absolute proof of that.
People are not percents. The number who had breakthroughs from vaccines whose efficacies are in the 90s are in the thousands. The most vulnerable are having serious symptoms. I can’t downplay that. I also can’t ignore the FACT that we were told mid 90 efficacy when in reality it is 30 points…,,one third… lower.
The saddest part of all is, knowing this full well, our health agencies didn’t admit this until after they had no choice.
All this said…..JPD is correct. Many states are either not reporting or under reporting. Testing is low. And the cdc has pushed this number knowing those facts full well.
Yesterday, I actually took the Mrs. out for a drive just to get out of the house. We went out through Needham by Fisher Street and then down Clay Brook road to the Dam in S. Natick. We were going to get out of the car and sit on a bench and watch the waterfall. Nope! too many folks had the same idea. Even so, it was nice to get out.
I’ll be returning tomorrow to see IF I can grab a large mouth
bass or 2. Water appears to be at the perfect level for it.
Water looked pretty clear. IDEAL as far as I am concerned.
Time will tell. I’ll probably get skunked because I have no
night crawlers and I am NOT going into a bait store to purchase any. I have all of the top of the line artificial baits, including some Gary Yamamoto senkos. I used to catch a bunch of bass on those things. We shall see. I don’t usually get skunked, so I am overdue. 🙂 🙂 🙂
Good luck fishing!
UK data is accurate. Note, the dataset includes a period during which Delta was not prevalent. Delta has certainly worsened things. This said, if I had to hazard a guess based on a meta-analysis of data from multiple countries, I’d say that currently the percentage of cases that are of fully vaccinated folks is between 12 and 15%. I’d say that the percentage of hospitalizations currently that are of fully vaccinated folks is around 10% in the U.S., and the percentage of deaths that are of fully vaccinated folks is between 3 and 5%. These numbers are rising, which in part reflects an increasing number of vaccinated people (which is a good thing!). There’s a third category – the partially vaccinated – which I haven’t been able to analyze as the data is sparse.
Biggest problem with CDC data is not only that it’s old, it often includes cases, hospitalizations, and deaths from before there were even any vaccines.
With Delta the best thing to do is look at a current set of data, as San Diego county does, and LA, too. It’s not useful to throw in numbers from, say, before June.
We drove by that area on the way to NWH Friday. I thought of you fishing. Hope it works out for you tomorrow. Very happy you and Mrs OS had a nice ride.
So we have more than double the cases vs this time last year but significantly less death and hospitalization. Vaccines doing what they should be.
Yes, and as science will tell you, variations of viruses are often more contagious but less lethal. In March 2020 I said that. The only thing we were not sure of was the exact timeline. We’re learning that now.
I’m in favor of indoor precautions being stepped up to get us through this surge. I also agree with your stance on outdoors so long as it’s easy to be safe. I haven’t worn a mask outside for quite some time now (spring sometime), but indoors where they are required I do. We still have to in my work and will for some time to come yet.
C 19 for 8-3 is ready.
Comments are closed.
Your no-hype southeastern New England weather blog!
Good morning,
Absolutely NOTHING is making feel better about this
Delta variant, NOTHING.
Longshot and Dr S, I hope you are both healing quickly.
Thanks vicki. I’m pushing through. Cough 99% gone. Bad bad headache today though. But I can deal with it.
Glad you have shaken the cough but so sorry to hear about the headache. You are still comfortable that it was not covid?
Yeah this is similar to annual colds I get. I did one test already. But speaking of tests I noticed a line outside of a testing center this morning – I haven’t seen a line there in at least six months. That’s like a bellweather to me.
You may recall that back in May I was concerned about the death rate in the U.S. compared to the U.K. and other countries. Even though cases then had come down to relatively low levels, we still were experiencing a much higher death rate than our peers. Well, that problem is now magnified in the Delta wave. The relative decoupling between cases and deaths in the U.K., and even between cases and hospitalizations to a lesser degree, is not happening here, at least not nearly to the same extent. In fact, hospitalizations here are already poised to be higher than the first two waves. It’s doubtful hospitalizations will exceed the third wave, but still.
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1422033221177413632
Also of note, CDC has disclosed that as of two weeks ago – before the Delta wave rapidly accelerated – there had been 6,000 hospitalizations among fully vaccinated, an increase of ~2,000 compared to the June 22 report. My guess is the number has probably increased by another 1 to 2,000 over the past two weeks. Still a MUCH smaller chance of hospitalization for the fully vaccinated, but in absolute terms – due to wildfire spread – it’s not a figure one can gloss over.
Nursing homes and assisted living facilities are reporting more new cases than at any time since March. It’s likely that the virus is `targeting’ the weakest and most vulnerable once again. Boosters for these folks are an absolute necessity. Israel knows this and is acting, accordingly. Why aren’t we?
This is just so sad on many different levels, Joshua. How many times in the past few months have we said that what we were seeing in other countries would eventually be here. I agree with JPD. I’m not seeing anything to make me feel better right now. In good part, it is because WE are ignoring all that has been learned from other countries…and has been shown by a horrific event in our own state, from our own country
Philip, I’m not finding that Provincetown is improving. It doesn’t mean it isn’t, but I can’t find anything. The latest I can find is in the NYT two days ago. The cases went to over 900. I was surprised to learn the town is 95% vaccinated.
They did move the mask advisory to a mandate. I’m absolutely not criticizing or second guessing. They (townspeople, those in charge, tourists) did what we were told we could do. What I am amazed by is that this is not a learning moment. We don’t know how much of this would have been avoided if the mandate and other restrictions had been in place. It would be silly to think it wouldn’t have made a difference.
Philip, I don’t know if you have free times for NYT. I hope you have at least a few
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/31/us/covid-outbreak-provincetown-cape-cod.html
Sorry Joshua. With the NYT it’s either “subscribe” or “goodbye”. I chose the latter. I guess it’s the price we pay for online news these days.
As for Provincetown, it was reported on WBZ 4 news yesterday morning, but obviously it was not correct. I guess we can no longer trust our traditional radio/tv news stations (local or national) all the time for correct information anymore, certainly not with regard to this virus.
It was me who posted nyt. It is difficult to keep it all straight. Sorry about that. It is possible the numbers are coming down and I just didn’t find it.
Oops! Sorry about that Vicki. Don’t worry about it. I was somewhat suspicious anyway that numbers would be coming down so quickly, regardless of the measures taken.
Obama is having a 60th birthday bash on Martha’s vineyard. Hundreds of guests and staff according to reports and a “covid coordinator.” https://www.thedailybeast.com/barack-obama-is-planning-a-huge-60th-birthday-bash-in-marthas-vineyard-amid-delta-variant-covid-surge
Article says CDC does not consider Martha’s Vineyard an area of high risk. Does anyone want to tell the cdc that 95% of Ptown was vaccinated and that there were 0 covid cases before July 4. Makes me wonder what they consider high risk
And how many travel by ferry with the usual tourists?
This is beyond irresponsible.
I give up. I really do. The country has gone nuts
Agreed! Our friends are going nuts doing things they should NOT be doing. Thus we do not see them.
Question. At the start of covid, we were told the virus lives in certain surfaces for hours to days depending on the surface. Is there still evidence that this is true and can you get covid by touching a contaminated surface?
Thank you
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/12/28/948936133/still-disinfecting-surfaces-it-might-not-be-worth-it
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/546541-cdc-risk-of-covid-transmission-on-surfaces-is-low
Thank you, Dr. I still remove food from take our containers and put on my own plates. My fine China of choice is usually disposable;) But have stopped a good amount of what I’d been doing. I appreciate your links.
I do the same with containers. I also only really disinfect if I touch high traffic surfaces. I remember this time last year we were still tossing out cardboard boxes to stay in the sun for a day and disinfecting groceries. Better to be overprepared than to be not prepared at all!
Seems we are on the same track. I like your last sentence.
Two people in our building have cold/flu like symptoms. One of them is going to be taking care of my cat. We decided to video conference for instructions, given that I’ll be traveling later this week.
I’ve heard of many others, including several friends of mine, who’ve been getting sick with norovirus and/or colds.
Speaking of lines and wait times, I’ve been warned that the place I was going to get a Covid test at is having long lines. I’ve now opted for a self-pay option closer by, in my neighborhood. In the end I’ll be paying about $350 for 3 Covid tests for this trip.
Am always a bit apprehensive about traveling/flying (gotten worse over the years), but this time my stress level is really high. My latest worry is I test positive in England and can’t come back. Not worried so much about getting sick as testing positive. There are worse places to be, but I literally can’t afford to stay there in a hotel for at least 10 days.
Best of luck.
More than 99.99% of people fully vaccinated against Covid-19 have not had a breakthrough case resulting in hospitalization or death, according to the latest CDC data.
That is not what I have been seeing and frankly I do not trust CDC data any more. They typically report on OLD data.
We shall see. I sincerely hope that stat is correct, but I fear it is not.
The way they botched the masking after vaccination is enough for me NOT to trust them. I’ll continue to do what is best for me and the Mrs.
Some data from the UK
Out of 229,218 COVID infections in the United Kingdom between February and July 19, 28,773 — or about 12.5% — were in fully vaccinated people. Of those breakthrough infections, 1,101, or 3.8%, required a visit to an emergency room, according to Public Health England. Just 474, or 2.9%, of fully vaccinated people required hospital admission, and 229, or less than 1%, died.
Whole article:
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210726/breakthrough-cases-rising-with-delta-heres-what-that-means
I saw that number also.
Saying a vaccinated person doesn’t get seriously ill discounts the fact that many don’t know they have covid and their viral load is equal to that of the unvaccinated. They carry the same danger of spreading as the unvaccinated. Ptown is absolute proof of that.
People are not percents. The number who had breakthroughs from vaccines whose efficacies are in the 90s are in the thousands. The most vulnerable are having serious symptoms. I can’t downplay that. I also can’t ignore the FACT that we were told mid 90 efficacy when in reality it is 30 points…,,one third… lower.
The saddest part of all is, knowing this full well, our health agencies didn’t admit this until after they had no choice.
All this said…..JPD is correct. Many states are either not reporting or under reporting. Testing is low. And the cdc has pushed this number knowing those facts full well.
Yesterday, I actually took the Mrs. out for a drive just to get out of the house. We went out through Needham by Fisher Street and then down Clay Brook road to the Dam in S. Natick. We were going to get out of the car and sit on a bench and watch the waterfall. Nope! too many folks had the same idea. Even so, it was nice to get out.
I’ll be returning tomorrow to see IF I can grab a large mouth
bass or 2. Water appears to be at the perfect level for it.
Water looked pretty clear. IDEAL as far as I am concerned.
Time will tell. I’ll probably get skunked because I have no
night crawlers and I am NOT going into a bait store to purchase any. I have all of the top of the line artificial baits, including some Gary Yamamoto senkos. I used to catch a bunch of bass on those things. We shall see. I don’t usually get skunked, so I am overdue. 🙂 🙂 🙂
Good luck fishing!
UK data is accurate. Note, the dataset includes a period during which Delta was not prevalent. Delta has certainly worsened things. This said, if I had to hazard a guess based on a meta-analysis of data from multiple countries, I’d say that currently the percentage of cases that are of fully vaccinated folks is between 12 and 15%. I’d say that the percentage of hospitalizations currently that are of fully vaccinated folks is around 10% in the U.S., and the percentage of deaths that are of fully vaccinated folks is between 3 and 5%. These numbers are rising, which in part reflects an increasing number of vaccinated people (which is a good thing!). There’s a third category – the partially vaccinated – which I haven’t been able to analyze as the data is sparse.
Biggest problem with CDC data is not only that it’s old, it often includes cases, hospitalizations, and deaths from before there were even any vaccines.
With Delta the best thing to do is look at a current set of data, as San Diego county does, and LA, too. It’s not useful to throw in numbers from, say, before June.
We drove by that area on the way to NWH Friday. I thought of you fishing. Hope it works out for you tomorrow. Very happy you and Mrs OS had a nice ride.
So we have more than double the cases vs this time last year but significantly less death and hospitalization. Vaccines doing what they should be.
Yes, and as science will tell you, variations of viruses are often more contagious but less lethal. In March 2020 I said that. The only thing we were not sure of was the exact timeline. We’re learning that now.
I’m in favor of indoor precautions being stepped up to get us through this surge. I also agree with your stance on outdoors so long as it’s easy to be safe. I haven’t worn a mask outside for quite some time now (spring sometime), but indoors where they are required I do. We still have to in my work and will for some time to come yet.
C 19 for 8-3 is ready.