Thursday August 5 2021 Forecast (8:41AM)

59 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 5-9)

A frontal boundary sitting across southeastern New England with ripples of low pressure moving along it has a ribbon of rainfall about where we expected it would be, heaviest in the I-95 corridor, during this morning. The final wave of low pressure comes up and across the region during midday and the rain area will become a little more disorganized and showery before tapering off from south to north during this afternoon. Under the heaviest rainfall we can see some flooding issue, mainly road flooding and poor drainage area flooding, but conditions will improve this evening. This system skedaddles out of here tonight and high pressure builds from the Ohio Valley toward the Middle Atlantic States then offshore delivering warm and dry air to our region Friday and Saturday with moderate levels of humidity. A low pressure trough will approach from the northwest by late Saturday but any showers and storms associated with it are expected to occur in the mountains of western and northern New England. This trough line will be progressing through southeastern New England Sunday and will help trigger a few showers and thunderstorms, but much of the day in any given area will be rain-free that day as well. High pressure to the north of the region will deliver a cooler easterly air flow on Monday.

TODAY: Cloudy with widespread showers, heavy at times, I-95 belt eastward, with occasional mostly lighter showers to the west through midday, then numerous to scattered showers all areas first half of afternoon ending south to north thereafter with breaking clouds later in the day. Areas of fog. Highs 69-76. Dew point in 60s. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60s. Wind SE to S under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60s. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60s. Wind SSW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 81-88, cooler South Coast. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 80-87, cooler South Coast. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 10-14)

Predominant pattern features high pressure off the US East Coast with warm and fairly humid weather and limited shower and thunderstorm chances for our region.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 15-19)

Unsettled weather is most likely early in the period as high pressure offshore gives way to a stronger high pressure area from Canada which will bring drier air to the region.

59 thoughts on “Thursday August 5 2021 Forecast (8:41AM)”

  1. Thanks, TK. Just fun to see the word skedaddles in the morning. Looks like 0.6 inches in Natick at this point.

  4. Thanks, TK!
    Good morning…

    Our gauge reads 3.77″ for this event with more looking like it’s headed this way from Block Island Sound.

  5. Thanks TK. Love skedaddles. A friend told me yesterday that weather has been horrible. Am I just not noticing? I thought we’d had a really nice stretch

    1. This is interesting because there is a whole aspect of “weather psychology” .. beyond just the normal where some people don’t thrive in a lot of cloudy weather, which I totally understand. I think our media (not by their own fault necessarily) drive some of this. When the top story is weather nearly all the time, and a stretch of wet weather, a record-challenging wet July, etc., people start to hear it so often than if they are not necessarily accepting of the fact we go through periods of both good and bad weather, the news teaches them to dwell on the bad so much that it goes beyond the normal reaction one might have.

      You are correct, we’ve had stretches of rather nice weather, and to the like of many that has also come with the lack of heat and humidity so the comfort level has been decent for the majority of folks as well.

      But….we have this one episode of heavy rainfall, our news headlines drive on it, and suddenly the mentality is that we never left the bad stretch of July and this is just a continuation of it all.

      I think that’s the best way I can describe it.

      1. Thanks. I get it. If something is repeated often enough, people tend to believe it ….even if it’s an exaggeration or sometimes totally false.

        1. Yes. That’s basically it.
          If you’re told the weather is bad, even when it’s not, then you think it is. Not “you” as in “Vicki”, but people in general. There are some people who don’t fall into that rut, but I think it is true for many people, unfortunately.

          Obviously, July was a cloudier and wetter month than average, considerably so, but as you said there were some nice days in there, and in particular we had more nice days than not-so-nice days for a while leading up to this current unsettled episode. Ah well. I enjoy this as much as the mostly sunny day we’ll be having tomorrow. 🙂

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.

    1.40 inches in the gauge so far for this event. Heaviest of rain has been SE of this area. Occasionally we get into some heavier rain.

    1. GFS looks like the winner on this event.

      ECMWF wavered far too much and just yesterday was delivering 2-4 inches of rain to the I-495 belt. Not a good forecast.

      1. Just took a look. Decent large mouth. That one is about 2 pounds or so it looks to me. Perhaps something like 16 or 17 inches long.

        Since I grew up fishing the Charles and tributaries, I am not much of a pond/lake fisherman. 🙂 I tend to like fishing the river as I know the nuances and where the fish are likely to be. On a lake or pond, I have no clue whatsoever.

        Thanks for sharing the photo. Post more if you have em. If OK with TK.

        2. Hey. Good job today. And I understand. I think we all have our favorite places to fish as well as type of area.

  9. Thank you, TK.

    July was quite wet and often cloudy, but, as TK alluded to, we had some stellar days in July.

    1. I know bad weather is more exciting in the news, but I think if once in a while they’d key on nice weather a little more, it would do wonders for the population. 🙂

      I know it’ll never happen, but one can dream. 😉

  10. Pouring again.

    We’re up to 4.04″ since yesterday afternoon!!!

    Dave and Rainshine, I apologize for not wishing you a Happy Birthday earlier! I hope you both had special days! Life is racing by at warp speed lately!

    Happy Birthday!

    1. No worries Capt. 🙂 Thank you.

      Warp speed, you aren’t kidding.
      I feel like I am on a bullet train to the end of my life and it is going downhill and picking up speed.

      I have reached an age where I wake up in the morning and say to myself, I am still here. Seriously, that is where I am at…..

    2. Thank you, Captain. No problem. The way things are, every day seems the same. My husband and me don’t go out that much so wknd. or wkday. Not much difference. Except we used to watch tennis on tv for yrs. Now husband watches golf a lot, especially during wknd. He used to play golf back in the day. I watch golf with him – a little more relaxing than tennis.

  12. Rain ended about 30 mins ago, wind is busy from the S, we’ve had breaks in the clouds with some sun 🙂

  13. I am amazed that throughout much of the morning and so far into this afternoon so many sparrows and other small birds flying around and chirping in spite of the heavy downpours. You would think they would have been hunkered down hiding up in the trees shivering or something. Go figure.

    1. I’ve actually seen more “inactivity” from them on sunny, pleasant days. Again, go figure. 😉

    2. Well, birds don’t shiver, for one thing, but that’s a funny concept (kind of reminds me of Loony Tunes)… 🙂

      Animals are a great example we should all follow: Adaption. They make the best of whatever they are dealt. Humans just have a tendency to moan about the weather on social media. 😉

      There is nothing like a nice walk in the rain. 🙂

  15. This strip of heavy showers in SE Mass get another wow ! Thank goodness the line is moving, but it’s dropped a crazy amount of rain in a short time !! Roads are streams !!

  16. Interestingly, if NHC was going by their old policies of naming things, we’d only have ONE named storm through August 5.

    Either way, the tropics are about to start waking up a bit.

    1. And let me guess, we’re going to be in a perfect pattern to be vulnerable. Just our luck as usual.

      1. That remains to be seen. Can’t predict the details of the pattern in regard to bringing any systems (which don’t exist quite yet) up this way.

        It’s not really our luck as usual. Most Atlantic systems don’t directly impact New England, and we’ve now gone 30 years without a hurricane landfall.

        If I had to venture a guess based on my feelings of medium range pattern, I’d say that the Caribbean and / or Florida, are more vulnerable, not just from a climate standpoint but a pattern standpoint. However, we must never turn our back on tropical season up here, no matter what.

      2. As TK said, it’s been 30 years since a Hurricane made landfall in New England or Long Islands. That is the 2nd longest stretch we’ve ever gone without a direct hit. The average is one ever 9.4 years. Our “luck” is going to run out soon.

        1. August 19, 1991. Macs birthday. He spent it emptying pans in the attic which didn’t have pull down stairs and you couldn’t stand up…especially if you were 6’1”

  17. Fine by me if nothing from the tropics impacts us. One year ago today the clean up process from Isiaias began and having no power for four days.

    1. I had a memory show up on my Fb page today when we had no power. I couldn’t recall why. I was obviously too focused on not having power and we all know how I feel about that. TK reminded me it was Isaias

  18. For laughs The Farmers’ Almanac came out calling for typical winter chill stormy January tranquil February with near normal amounts of snow from coast to coast. January starts mild but will trend colder toward middle and latter part of the month. They are red flagging for potent winter storms second week of January, last week of February, and second week of March.

    TK I know it is way early any chance the Almanac will be close to correct? I always feel with them go with the opposite.

    1. The farmers almanac has been proven to be less reliable than a coin flip funny enough. People studied its efficacy and it was less than 50% correct if I recall.

    2. If the farmer’s almanac is close to correct it will be by accident.

      It’s a great publication for everything except weather forecasts. Very entertaining though. 🙂

  20. I know. I don’t believe their 85% accuracy they claim. I always post when it comes out for all of us to have a good laugh.

  22. If this was early February instead of early August, this would have been one heck of a snow event. Essentially we had a “wintry” setup along the east coast in the middle of summer.

    1. No, it wouldn’t have been. For one, we don’t have a Bermuda High sitting off the East Coast pumping warm and humid air into the region in the winter. Also, due to the temperature difference the atmosphere would only have been able to hold about 20% of the moisture that was available today.

    2. This isn’t even close to a wintery setup.
      This particular setup would have produced rain in February too.

      1. Thanks TK and SAK! I mistook the rain clinging to the coastline for a norlun type setup. Sorry. 🙂

  24. Arrived in London. It’s been cloudy, sunny, and rainy during my brief time here so far. Very typical summer weather in these parts. Variability is the theme.

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