One-Two Punch Leads To Cold Weekend

135 Comments

1:20AM

Warm when it storms, colder when it doesn’t. That’s the story of the next 7 days.

A broad low pressure trough will cross the Northeast through Friday. Surface reflections of this come in a double punch, one storm rapidly moving through today, with mainly rain (that starts off as some snow mainly well northwest of Boston). Heaviest rain comes in the morning, along with strongest winds, and a risk of minor coastal flooding at high tide. The stormy weather of the morning subsides in the afternoon though it remains a dismal day.

The second main punch will come as a piece of energy whips in ahead of the main trough on Friday morning, and this may contain a squall of rain and even thunder in the morning. This should occur before the cold air gets in, hence rain instead of snow. Behind this area, little waves of energy will cross the region from west to east through Friday evening, each one with colder air to work with, so the threat of snow showers exists. A heavier snow squall cannot be ruled out.

Beyond this activity, blustery and cold weather will take hold Friday night through Saturday. Though the strongest wind will be done with by evening, it will still be brisk and very cold for the NFL playoff game between the Patriots and Broncos. The temperature at kick-off should be in the middle 20s, but fall rapidly into the teens during the game. Bundle up if you are going to this one!

Sunday, though it’s not being advertised loudly, we still have to watch a small upper level disturbance crossing the region. This may kick off some scattered snow showers. Regardless, it will be a very cold day, probably the coldest of the short cold stretch, which will last through Monday (MLK Jr. Day).

By Tuesday, another rapid warm-up is expected as low pressure cuts through the Great Lakes. Its cold front will set off rain showers in the mild air, which may end as snow showers at night or early Wednesday as the next cold shot comes in, but this will be met with drier weather on Wednesday, though likely a strong wind once again.

Forecast…

TODAY: Overcast. Any snow in the 495 belt may leave a slushy coating before turning to rain early. Rain elsewhere,  possibly heavy for a while later in the morning before ending from southwest to northeast by 2PM. Lingering drizzle and areas of fog rest of afternoon. High 42-47.  Wind NE to E 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH in the morning, shifting to SE and diminishing to under 10 MPH during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Drizzle ending. Areas of fog. Low 37-42. Wind S under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy into late morning with a band of rain showers, possibly heavy, and a chance of thunderstorms, moving from southwest to northeast across the region. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny midday and afternoon with passing rain and snow showers, greater probability of snow showers with time. High 43-48 in the morning then temperature dropping into the 30s in the afternoon. Wind SE 5-15 MPH early, shifting to SW and increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH, eventually to W at similar speeds including gusts around 40 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers and a slight risk of a heavier snow squall before midnight. Low 22-27.  Wind W 15-25 MPH with gusts around 40 MPH, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. High 30-35. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, diminishing slowly.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 12-17. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. High 22-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 11. High 33.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. PM rain showers. Low 28. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. AM snow showers. Low 29. High 36.

135 thoughts on “One-Two Punch Leads To Cold Weekend”

      1. It’s amazing!!! And high tide isn’t for another 5 hours. Wow

        House is anything but air tight – wind is whistling through every east facing window.

      2. Mac left the house at 5:20 and was in his office in Watertown at 6:20. Good time to leave!!!! Thank you John.

  4. Some real heavy rain down in northwest NJ, southwest CT…..

    Temps in central and southern NJ are in the mid 50s…wonder how far north that gets…..

    Surprised to see quick burst of snow interior Mass….I was wrong.

    Have a good day all !!!

  5. Just under 2″ of heavy, wet snow here in Worcester. I was just out brushing off the car and it feels (and sounds) like the snow is starting to mix with sleet. The roads are untreated and it’s a bit of a mess out there.

    1. Be safe Christie. I noticed some schools were closing and the traffic reports said driving is not good at all

  7. wow–a little surprised this morning. I didn’t expect more than a heavy coating. About 2-1/2″ in Holden. Still snowing. Flakes are big which means it will probably flip soon.

  8. Walked in from the parking lot to my office on Congress street and that east wind was stiff, no wonder rain!!!

    Scott look at hr 240 on 00z EURO, just torches the region with warmth!

    1. Yes it did, but once the PV comes back, which may be for most of February, we could be in for some interesting weather.

  12. Noticed a few wet snow flakes splat the windshield on the way into to work this AM.
    That was about it.

    I noticed long range, a few more inside runners or lakes cutters moving through.

    Not much hope in the next couple of weeks, then we are virtually into to February!!

    1. Nothing I can see spells anything for January at this point, as has been the case this winter, warm for storm and cold after.

      DS yes nothing more depressing then cold 37 degree rain in January!!

      BLAH BLAH BLAH

  13. WOW the wind was strong walking to the T this morning. Nothing says “blah” to me more than winter rain.

    BLAH!

    1. Yes indeed! I have all day training today at work, so the snow would have
      been great and might have been enough to cancel the training!! Lol

      Instructor got lost and ended up in Braintree, so we’ll have a late start!! It will
      take forever to come back up the Distressway into the City!!

  14. What a temp contrast from let’s say Concord NH north, Portland Me that was supposed to turn to rain early is sitting at 25 degree and Snow and the further north the cold air is entrenched with very low dew points.

    I would imagine we will see some areas come in with close to a foot in central Maine and the mountains.

  15. I think the 12 z NAM came in much colder for Maine and I think even a little colder for areas that were supposed to turn over to rain in SNE. It now has most of Maine in 6+ inches easily.

  16. For example Worcester was supposed to turn over to rain by now but they are still sitting at 32 degrees and snow.

  17. just flipped to sleet/rain mix. snowed like crazy for a while this morning. I bet we have 3 to 4 inches in spots. the roads are awful.

  18. The Longshot has been given advance info on a window for a possible snowstorm. The Longshot does not like this because he has forecasted 3″ of snow for the entire winter season. But, in deference to his (somewhat morose) brethern bloggers, the Longshot has decided to sacrifice his projection for the greater good.

    In return (no, there are no free lunches), all bloggers must guarantee a Pats’ and B’s win on Sat nite. Should you accept this mission and be caught or captured the Longshot will disavow any knowledge of your actions. However, should you succeed, arrangements will be made for the right (snowlover) conditions between Feb 7-10th.

    Do not fail, for what the Longshot giveth, the Longshot can taketh. 🙂

    1. It is now January 12th and you are predicting a snow event in the time frame
      of 2/7-2/10. LOL!!! You’re Funny!!

      I doubt very much that happens!!!!

      1. Were you a doubter of the Longshot’s original 3″ prediction?OS, your mission remains the same. You are to deliver 2 wins on Sat nite. (And don’t be such a spoil sport either. It’s hard work for me to reverse the current trend.)

        1. Sorry,

          I can’t guarantee you 2 wins. With this Tebow magic
          going on, anything is possible, although the Pats
          “should” win. B’s also “should” be a lock to win.

          More worried about the Pats than the B’s, even though they Miss Marchand. I can see ways in which the Pats lose this game.

        2. Yes,
          I was a doubter of your original 3 inch prediction, However, with each passing day, that is looking better
          and better! Lol

    1. One never knows what tricks Mother Nature has up her sleeve!! Lol

      Yes, the cold hung in there much longer than I ever imagined, that’s for sure!

  20. Water is already up to yesterday’s high tide mark and we have three hours to go to high tide. I’m hoping it doesn’t go under the house – since I’m in the house???

    2. Vicki,

      I believe it. The tide is right now running 1.5ft above normal per the Boston Harbor Buoy. That means with an expected 10.8 ft tide, it will be at least 12.3ft at 1pm. That means minor coastal flooding and the surge is probably likely to rise a bit more……. High tide is around 1pm. In the Harbor, the vertical rise of the tide has about 6ft more to go. That probably translates to another 3 to 4 ft vertical rise on the south river. Between 12pm and 2pm will be the worst. Good luck !!

      1. Ummmm does that translate to it coming up under the house?? There is still about 30-35 feet between where it is now and the house. Halfway between house and where it is there is a ridge formed back in the fall – about 2-3 feet tall – if it goes over that it’s more of a downhill slant to the house

        As much as I’m loving this, I’d feel a bit happier if I had a car and could leave if necessary

          1. This house is just above sea level too. I wouldn’t own at this level but I would love to be on the other side of the south river looking down at the river and the ocean. Safe and lovely view. The waves are spectacular. I only have an iPhone camera (and old one at that) and they are not doing the waves justice 🙁

  21. everyone thats south of rt 2 rain by and after noon time Highest areas of Billerica are getting some coatings but will be washed away by 1pm since i think the change is coming now to noon time.

  22. Snowing light – moderate in Sudbury. Heavy, wet snow. We have about 2 inches of snow on the ground right now.

    1. rainshine – what a difference a few miles makes. My daughter said it has been raining in Framingham for over an hour – no snow ever accumulated on the roof and what is on the ground is washing away

      1. Lots of switchovers all morning here. When I last posted it was snowing. Now it is raining (wonder if there is ice in there).

        Vicki – I am so jealous of you! 🙂 At the seashore! Most of my childhood and into my teens my family often went to Hull – to Nantasket beach and the bay. My husband is originally from Hull and his house was on the bay. I have lots of memories from there. We also visited Scituate a few times – at the harbor. But that was long ago. I never experienced a storm near the beach. We talk about moving to somewhere along the South Shore someday – near the beach. Enjoy your time at the beach!

        1. Thanks rainshine – I love the Hull area and have wonderful memories of Nantasket Beach on summer nights at the amusement park. I really am enjoying the storm but would be bit more comfortable if I had a car. Two hours to go so hopefully it will only get close to the house and not under it 🙂

            1. Thanks – wish I could get outside to take a video to post but the rain is too hard and it would kill my phone 🙁

  24. Just drove from Milford to Foxboro, it was all rain, but a fellow did say it was snowing for about a half hr early this morning around 7am and changed to rain at around 730

  26. interested to see what becomes of that blob off L.I. when it gets here to central mass. (if it gets here) Still snowing now.

  29. I wish I could post a photo on here for you snow deprived — outside my window it’s like a winter wonderland.

    Still snowing in Worcester although we’re in a bit of a lull at the moment. There’s got to be almost 4″ out there. I can’t even see the little spikes of grass coming through it anymore.

    1. if it doesn’t flip to rain when that next batch comes through, we might get 6″ out here Christie. Charlie’s post about the surging warmth doesn’t give me confidence but we’ll see!

  31. Nice to see a little snow. It will feel like January this weekend. Still no signs of any big snow events.

  33. Inside the 495 belt did anyone know there’s 5.4 million and the rest of the state has only 1.4 million, a very crazy stat.

  36. 12 z gfs is different then previous runs, still has warmth late in the run, but keeps the cold air right around through most of the month.

  37. update from NWS

    1140 AM UPDATE…

    INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH BASED
    ON LATEST REPORTS. WITH TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
    THIS REGION MAIN IMPACT WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
    SECONDARY ROADWAYS.

    OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK.

  38. 1 more hr to go to high tide. Tide guage shows tide should be at 9.8ft, if it were running normal, and projected tide height is 10.8ft, so 1 more foot of vertical rise to go. Current actual tide guage reading is 11.8ft, so this tide will come in at 12.8ft, which is pretty high !!!

    1. The foam is coming up over the ridge I spoke of earlier. If it only goes 1 more foot – I assume you mean up toward the house – it will be fine. And I’m thinking the 3 foot ridge would stop any further forward progression other than splashover…………..I hope. The owner of the house is heading here because there are a few leaks.

      Does the tide keep coming in, however, when it is this strong or does it halt right about the high tide time?

      1. What stinks hadi is that i don’t live anywhere near the coast, closet is 30 miles away and it rained, it stinks that all the snow fell well north and west 🙁

        1. It wasn’t that far off though:) Just too far south for you. What I can say is that the cold temps held up better then modeled or forecasted.

    1. Back edge of precip just came through here with huge rain drops and temp dropped to 39.9 so a little cold air above us but temps also look to stay above freezing so no flash freezes, take it easy 🙂

  43. Anyone notice on the 12Z NAM that it really close to popping a coastal storm, but even if it did it would be too warm even if it did.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20120112%2F12%2Fnam_namer_030_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=030&imagesurls=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=01%2F12%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes

    1. Hadi,

      we might have to drop a bunch of shaved ice from those big city buildings before this winter is out.

  47. precipitation ends by 3 pm as a mix of rain,snow freezing rain and sleet. areas just outside of 495 is still snow/sleet.
    areas between 128 and 495 there is still pockets of frozen precipitation
    Heivy precipitation brings down cooler air which i think is part of the reason why so many areas saw snow to rain to snow to rain instead of just rain. It started as rain here in Billerica but then swiched to wet snow when the hievy precipitation started.
    there was about a coating to 2 inches outside in billerica depending on where you where. Outside of the high school i say about 1 to 1.5 inches fell
    where i live in billerica 1-2. How small elevation and wind change can effect the amounts

  48. today:Rain showers early then cloudy highs in the low 40s
    tonight mostly cloudy chance of showers late lows in the low 30s rsing after 3 am to the low to mid 40s
    friday mostly cloudy rain with a chance of freezing rain and snow.temperatures falling from the upper 40s to low 30s by evening
    friday night partly cloudy and colder lows in the mid 20s
    saturday partly sunny highs in the upper 20s to low 30s
    saturday night through sunday night . cold highs in the low to mid 20s lows around zero
    monday and monday night partly sunny highs in the mid to upper 20s lows in the upper teens.
    tuesday and tuesday night partly to mostly cloudy a chance of showers highs in the low 40s lows in the 20s
    wednesday sunny highs in the mid 30s

      1. Yes, I also never see hype from him either.
        Sadly though the last week of January might be quite mild.
        Then what does February bring?<——Big question!

  50. He is great!! Hate to read what he has to say. I think we can pretty much kiss January goodbye and see what Feb has to offer.

    1. If it doesn’t snow in the next 7-10 days, then forget about snow for the rest of the month.
      After this week, the arctic air is going to retreat and rebuild, and may come at us for the start of Feb, and could stay with us. We Shall See.

      1. Without a major and I mean major pattern change, the South is going to warm up quickly by mid-late February with the increasing sun angle. And that real warm air will be our next spoiler. We’ll be fighting the calendar in about four more weeks.

        I still believe we have two bombs before winter is out. One in February and one in March. (is that lame & vague or what!)

  51. Warm air never really made it into southern NH. I never thought we would still have snow on the ground by the end of the day but we do. Just over the border 2-3 inches, and Manchester got about 4 inches.

  53. Hi all.

    Had temporary health problems today so I didn’t get to post much. I have a heart condition that occasionally knocks me on my ass (and today it chose to do so in a significant way for the first time in 6 years). It’s atrial fibrillation. And I’m on medication for it. But once in a while, it sneaks in. The good news? It fixed itself! No trip to doc or hospital needed…

    Anyway, a bit more snow in some areas than I forecast. A bit of a surprise, for sure, but not a huge one. Knew there was some potential for colder air to hang tough but though the ocean would have a bit more influence. That took longer.

    I haven’t looked at too much yet, will be doing that soon and posting an update. Doesn’t look like much change to the forecast currently in place….

    2. Glad to hear your ok. Both my wife and son have a heart condition called Long QT. My wife has an inplanted defibulator and my son will need one in two years when he is nine, he takes medication now. Tk not sure if you saw the post I sent you regarding Dave Shea a former bruins play by play anouncer. I am doing some buisness with him now. He was here on Saturday and will be back here well in less than an hour tonight. If the deal goes well I may have him call some plays for tonights game LOL. I have known him about 2years from a town thing we do, but now I think were becoming friends.

      1. Yikes Tk…..

        Even though we’re operating in a chat room here, we’re all real people and friends. All the best!

        1. Clearly I meant about Shea. I’m sorry to hear about your wife and son. Mac has all sorts of heart problems on his side of the family.

      3. I’ve always been a fan of Dave Shea! Loved when he was on the announcing team with Fred & Turk. And when he was calling the games himself he did a great job. My favorite Dave Shea quote (after a big hit caught by the camera right in the corner): “Almost knocked your dip and chips off the living room table didn’t they?!”

        1. TK- Got his autograph for some of the guys at work. He just left. He is coming back Monday night and I will get one for me. Very nice guy. I was like a youg kid waiting for the date to come over. Had the game on for him. I said do you mind the game on, he said no as long as Edwards can tame it back. Not a fan of Jack. I don’t blame him as after the lockout he lost his job to him.

    3. TK. Glad you are improved. Again please do not worry about leaving us to our own devices if you are not up to posting. We play pretty well together :). Rest and get 100%

        1. Thanks guys and gals! I am doing much better. Just have to live with it and once in a while it gets cranky. 🙂

    1. i should also add. i am not thinking we will be even close of average snowfall. i think we will be dealing with one of the worse snow droughts in over 20 years.

      1. Interestingly, I had on WMUR from NH last night…and up there, because of the October snowstorm, a great many NH locations are evidently running seasonal totals that are a few inches above normal relative to where they should be. I’ll assume these areas also did well today….But for our local area, yes…so far….very little.

  58. Up to now, I havent minded the weather pattern because its been mild to warm 95% of the time. A lot of nice days have been pleasant to be outdoors.

    I dont think I’m going to enjoy the next 7 days. Starting Saturday, very cold except for the one day (next Tuesday or so) that has precip, where its too mild to snow. Then, back to cold. This type of pattern I dont care for.

  59. Worcester, which has had a high of 33F and reported 3 inches of snow today………has a +8F anomoly for the day because its normal low is 17F and so far, I think its low is 30F. This is also happening at the other 3 main southern New England climate stations. All with daytime lows today are well above normal, causing today to be nearly 10F above normal.

  61. finally a chance of my dad,brother and I going skiing first time this year. its really late into the season. most mountains got at least a few inches. My favorite ski area ,stowe has opened most of their trails when they only had about 45% open before the storm. Killingtion opend a whole bunch trails. even wachusett has a good 3 -6 inches of natural snow and with the best grooming in new england expect that 3-6 inches to be in good use.

  62. Wind Advisory up for a good part of SNE tomorrow. It will feel like January this weekend but looks like more showers for early next week. I don’t see any sustained winter pattern for the rest of January.

  64. Headed to Burlington vt for a kids hockey tournament over the weekend, now that’s some cold! 9 on sat and 5 on Sunday… Brrrrr!

    Back onsunday afternoon then off to Waterford Ireland for the week for work. Probably similar wx there to what we have seen…

    Tj

  65. Thanks Scott even though the news is not great for us. This may end up like 2001-02 winter or 06-07 winter.
    Maybe by some miracle will get that blockbuster in February The Farmers’ Almanac is calling for.

    1. I would like at least one good storm this winter, at least 10 inches. The good thing about this winter is it can be used for future analogs, and these type of winter can be predicted better in the fall.

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