Wednesday August 11 2021 Forecast (7:35AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 11-15)

It’s Bermuda High time! The next 3 days will feature the classic New England hot and humid summer weather courtesy high pressure anchored off the US East Coast, centered in the vicinity of Bermuda. This means high temperatures over 90 for most areas except for a few coastal areas that may fall shy of 90. Boston’s high temps will fall shy of records all three days, which sit between 99 and 101 (all set during a brutal 1944 heat wave). Nevertheless, for the city it’ll be hot and muggy for the stretch with the only chance of a bit of temporary natural relief coming in the form of a possible feeble sea breeze on Friday as the wind field weakens temporarily, allowing that possibility. As for thunderstorm threats, despite the heat and humidity, we will lack strong triggers for storms, with most of those developing each afternoon well to the west. If they can organize into lines, the remains of them can make their way into the WHW forecast area both tonight and Thursday night but would likely be fading away and have minimal impact. Nevertheless, we’ll have to watch for that and otherwise just a few possible isolated air mass storms popping up any afternoon today through Friday. One other note: The Perseid Meteor Shower peaks the next couple of nights, and while we have the moon out of the way this time, what may not be out of the way are some clouds at times, as well as possibly some patches of high altitude smoke. However, some of the meteors should be visible for at least part of each night. Peak time to see them is after midnight to about first light. The thin and fast-moving meteors radiate outward from Perseus, high in the northeastern sky then gradually moving toward overhead as the overnight goes on. A reclining lawn chair and as little light pollution as possible will maximize your view, pending the cooperation of the weather. The heat will be broken by a cold front sweeping across the region Saturday. There is disagreement among the guidance as to the timing of this front. For example one piece of fairly reliable guidance brings the front across the region Saturday morning with limited shower activity, while the other says it’ll be an afternoon passage with a more solid line of showers and thunderstorms. At the moment I am still leaning toward the earlier passage with a day that starts muggy, has its shower threat mostly early, and ends drier, but this forecast is subject to change so check for updates. What is quite certain is that Sunday will be a very pleasant summer day thanks to high pressure that builds in from southern Canada.

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms favoring central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 88-95, cooler in a few areas near the South Coast. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. A brief shower possible mainly well west and northwest of Boston. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible. Highs 91-98, cooler in some coastal areas especially the South Coast. Dew point lower to middle 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of a brief shower mainly north and west of Boston. Patchy fog. Lows 72-79, warmest in urban centers. Dew point lower to middle 70s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 90-97, possibly cooler coastal areas. Dew point lower 70s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible overnight. Lows 70-77. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially morning and midday. Highs 82-89. Dew point lower to middle 70s falling into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 62-69. Dew point falling to upper 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 16-20)

While we’ll have to keep an eye to the south to some moisture there, right now it appears that high pressure may remain in control over our region for most of if not the entire period with dry weather and low to moderate humidity, as well as a lack of significant heat – only a gradual warming.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 21-25)

High pressure may shift offshore with increased warmth and humidity and also a better chance of shower activity during these days. Also as previously mentioned, need to possibly keep an eye out for tropical activity to the south, or remnant moisture approaching from the southwest, pending the development and movement of system(s) in the Atlantic basin.

56 thoughts on “Wednesday August 11 2021 Forecast (7:35AM)”

  5. Thanks TK.

    I imagine the only A/C Bostonians had available in 1944 was inside movie theatres. There probably still was none in department stores like Jordan Marsh, Filene’s, etc. There certainly was no such thing as individual home A/C until the 1950s.

    1. That was when a huge part of buying a home was to make sure the house had windows set for cross ventilation. Now houses are built with as few windows as possible, especially on the side, for energy conservation purposes.

  7. Logan up to 82 with dp 72 and heat index: 87 I’d say it is rather humid out.

    JP
    79 , dp 74, heat index 83

    1. This particular hot spell is delivering on the humidity, thus far. The breeze did feel helpful though.

      1. It has been humid for quite a while now. I can’t do Anything around the house without breaking out into a horrible sweat and feeling miserable.

        And the next 3 days will be BRUTAL to say the least.

        Am most concerned about tomorrow.

        We could be 96-98 degrees with dp 74-76 which would equate to heat indexes of:

        107 to 113

        that is DANGEROUS levels of heat and humidity.

        There will be an EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING for tomorrow.

        There is already and Excessive Heat Watch out for tomorrow:

        https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=box&wwa=excessive%20heat%20watch

          1. She never feels well with humidity, AC or not.
            She is doing the best she can and staying in AC as much as possible.

            Thank you.

  10. Thanks, TK.

    Not loving the timing of this weather — I’m playing an outdoor concert this evening.

    Thinking today of ssk and others who work outdoors — or indoors without ac.

    1. Yup, unfortunately. Also, a 75F dp contour in the Mississippi Valley. And, our groundwater table is so darn high after all the July rain, so that´s getting evaporated too.

  12. The next 6 to 7 nights will be great examples of humidities affect on overnight temps.

    First 3 nights, the dps won´t allow suburbia to go much below 72F and obviously, the urban cities will be even warmer.

    Saturday night might be a transition night to …..

    Sunday thru Tues nights of next week having large diurnal temp changes, especially a bit away from the coast.

    While the airmass above will still be rather warm leading to warm afternoons, the lower dps, light winds and August´s lengthening nights should allow inland locations plenty of opportunity to cool to the dps, which could be in the low 50s. So, perhaps an inland location early next week could be 84F or 85F mid afternoon and have a pre-sunrise low of 53F or 54F.

    Hang in there the next 3 days, some of the benefits of getting later in the summer are not too far away.

      1. Well, I´d favor a warmer than average set-up for this time period.

        But, today´s 12z GFS compared to yesterday´s 12z GFS has differences, within a warm set-up, that have huge differences in afternoon temps. Yesterday´s was warm to hot for the long range, today´s is more mild and humid.

        Tomorrow´s long range will probably have an early season arctic cold front 🙂 🙂 🙂

    2. Used to love summer when I was younger but I have to admit that I am looking forward to the benefits of late summer.

  13. For jeopardy fans… “It’s Double ‘Jeopardy!’: Mike Richards And Mayim Bialik Will Be New Hosts”

    I don’t know a lot about him but absolutely love her.

      1. I happened to read about him the other day. I believe he was the exec producer of Price is Right for a while and one of the show´s regulars alleged inappropriate behavior on his part. I guess he is being hand picked to host Jeopardy by a top exec at the network. I love the idea of Mayim and how about Lavar Burton as the other co-host instead.

  16. Temps / dp’s about where I expected them to be today, maybe a bit of an under-performance but that’s the energy being spent on heating up saturated ground.

    Temps upper 80s to lower 90s.
    I do not think Logan’s 92 is correct. I’ll give them 88 or 89 tops.
    91 Norwood hot spot makes sense. As of 3PM, nothing else in eastern MA is that warm, and neither are they, except maybe above the runway asphalt.

    Great progress from my mom today…
    She’s already to solid food and speech is excellent considering how it started out. She remembered she had a foot doc appointment on Aug 16 which is she is concerned about missing. 😉 She should be moving to rehab no later than tomorrow.

    8. That is great news TK. So glad she is steadily improving! She will be at McDonalds with you on a Sunday in no time!

  17. Not sure if I ever mentioned this, but I’m not really a fan of “heat index” and “wind chill”. I never have been nor will I ever be. I don’t think either one are that representative. Not to mention they can vary greatly from person to person, especially heat index.

    2. Both nake a difference for horses and riding. My daughter asked me today what heat index will be. Eric or Pete or JR posted last night and I happened to see it.

  21. TK – Is “Fred” in our future sometime next week with heavy rains like in July?

    Is August going to have well above normal rainfall?

    1. I am not TK but GFS has .4 of rain for the entire 372 hour run for Boston! Not that will happen but we will see.

  24. Beautiful weather continues in London on my last day – well; morning.

    So glad I was able to visit.

    Harder for my daughter to visit me in Boston. Her boyfriend still can’t enter the U.S. and if she goes she must quarantine upon her return; plus take a slew of expensive tests. I hope to see her within 6 months. Covid has been very hard on families separated by oceans and land borders. Saying goodbye is always hard, but made harder now.

  25. Regarding the above question about Fred, we won’t really know if it’s in our future in any way. Given the forecast track, perhaps remnant moisture, but that could easily stay south as well.

    Time will make this clearer.

  26. Clouded over quickly in London and it’s been drizzling for the past few hours. An appropriate send-off. It’s the one rain type – drizzle – I hadn’t seen.

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