Saturday August 14 2021 Forecast (8:30AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 14-18)

Transition day! We start out in the hot/humid air mass we have been in during the last few days, although a cold front is heading this way and is going to cut across the region from northwest to southeast during the day, exiting via Cape Cod by tonight. This will deliver a cooler/drier air mass to our region, but to get there, we’ll have to go through a shower and thunderstorm threat. It still looks like a fairly low coverage event overall, with under 50% of the region seeing any activity of note, and possibly 25% or less of the region seeing the heaviest shower and thunderstorm activity. Of course, if you happen to be visited by one of these heavier storms, you can see briefly strong and gusty wind, torrential downpours, lightning, and even some small hail. This type of occurrence will be rather isolated though. For many, this change may be marked by clouds, a gusty breeze, and a lighter shower, or even no rain at all. But if you are out and about today, be prepared for a thunderstorm. This threat will decline rather quickly as we get to mid to late afternoon from northwest to southeast, with only the South Coast still seeing the chance of a shower or storm into early tonight. Sunday through Wednesday we will enjoy 4 days with no rainfall threat thanks to an area of high pressure that comes in from Canada, first sits off to the northwest and north of our area, then right over the region, and then slips off to the southeast. This will account for subtle changes during the fair weather stretch. Sunday’s weather will be governed by a light northerly air flow bringing in the driest air, and then the wind turns more easterly Monday with a more maritime feel, an uptick in humidity you won’t really notice because the air will still be refreshingly cool. Once we get to Tuesday and Wednesday, a more southerly air flow will transport higher humidity into the region, though not oppressive, and without the heat to accompany it. There will also be an increase in cloud cover by Wednesday, but still this 4-day stretch will be one of the best of the summer.

TODAY: Mostly sunny early, then variably cloudy with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms from late morning through afternoon, favoring southwestern NH and central MA first, then southeastern NH through eastern MA, eastern CT and RI early through mid afternoon, and areas to the southeast mid afternoon on. Isolated locations may see strong storms. Highs 84-91. Dew point near 70 but falling through the 60s from northwest to southeast by the end of the day. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TONIGHT: Clouds and a few showers/thunderstorms possible South Coast early, otherwise mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point falling into 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind variable to N under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog lower elevations. Lows 57-64. Dew point upper 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind variable up to S 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 19-23)

High pressure off the Atlantic Coast helps open the door for some tropical moisture which results in warm and humid weather here with the daily chance of showers and thunderstorms, but also plenty of rain-free time too. We’ll have to watch for a frontal boundary approaching from the west later in the period which may enhance the shower/storm risk somewhat.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 24-28)

This will continue to be the time period we need to keep an eye on tropical activity off the East Coast or remnant moisture coming this way by way of the Southeast / Mid Atlantic States. Again this is far out there in the future and there is no guarantee we end up seeing anything significant. In fact, high pressure that is forecast by guidance at this time to be to our west and north may very well build in and protect the region from unsettled weather. There will be a lot of fine-tuning to do with the late August forecast.

69 thoughts on “Saturday August 14 2021 Forecast (8:30AM)”

    1. You’re welcome JPD! Your lower dp’s are on the way!
      We may dip all the way to the lower 50s tomorrow for dews!

    1. Many people are with you on that one. 🙂

      I myself don’t mind the muggies, but the change is nice too!
      Probably going to take advantage of it tomorrow for a mulch mowing of the lawn, which is certainly growing a lot faster this year than it did in a year like … say … 2016. 😉 Actually, it’s fair to say that many lawns grew “in reverse” aka shrunk to dust & dead grass that summer. 😛

      1. Yes! My plan is to do the same and trim bushes, etc. Seems like the perfect day. The heat and humidity really get to me when it happens several days at a time,

        1. It can be rough. For some reason I have a very high tolerance to both heat and humidity. And it seems to be getting even better with time, which is odd – usually it goes the other way for most people. 😉

          But I sympathize with those who struggle in it. All I need is some hydration and a fan and I’m good. 🙂

          1. That’s great for you! It does usually do the other way with age.

            Hoping your Mom is continuing to improve.

            1. She is in rehab now.
              Recovery has been remarkable so far.
              She’s walking with a walker as her legs are still fairly weak from being off her feet for nearly a week and not really having eaten solid food until about a day and a half ago.
              Her speech is nearly perfect – only has to stop to search for a word once in a while, which is also improving with time.

    1. Must be a warm front between you and the airport. 😉 Actually last night was a good example of the “heat island” effect from asphalt & cement. SAK sent me a shot of all the obs around the city and you could clearly pick it out.

      1. Not just the obs. I have been downtown in really hot humid conditions like this and the comparison between downtown and my house are quite remarkable.

        The urban heat island is real for sure. 🙂

  8. For those who “get irritable” when “it’s 92 degrees” this song is for you. It’s by the British band Siouxsie and the Banshees (note, Brits nowadays only use Celsius in forecasts, and even in everyday talk about the weather – this was different when I lived in the UK in the 80s and Fahrenheit was still in use, especially by older folks): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TAt52OPnRf8

  9. It seems more comfortable this am. Light grey clouds are blocking the sun. But I don’t have sun on deck this early. The birds are quiet except fir a little hummingbird chirping that it’s time to change the feeder nectar. What my mom called June bugs calling for water are buzzing loudly

      1. I should have been more specific. I was sitting and not moving around. Moving around is a whole different ballgame 😉

  10. Two major earthquakes this morning…
    Prelim 6.9M @ 7:57AM EDT just south of Alaska, tsumani alert for parts of the Pacific.
    Prelim 7.2M @ 8:29AM EDT southwestern Haiti, significant damage and casualties reported.
    These are both seismically very active areas, so their occurrence is no surprise. Their coincidence is also no surprise as we have seen 2 or 3 significant quakes occur in very different areas over a short period of time on many occasions.

    1. These people have it so much worse then “ our humidity “ . Prayers for the people in Haiti and Alaska . Awful

      1. I am pretty sure the Alaska one was offshore so probably no damage anywhere.

        Haiti … buildings there have the staying power of a sand castle on the beach. Just terrible construction. They are in very bad shape there and have been for a long time, sadly. You don’t even need a major quake for big damage.

      2. I echo your prayers Aiden. Alaska had one of the largest earthquakes in about five decades back in late July. It was 8.2. I remember the 1964 earthquake well also. A grandson of a close family friend and neighbor had his family’s home destroyed. He came to spend the summer in Belmont with his grandmother and became a close friend of my group of neighborhood friends. That was 9.2. I believe – but am not certain – both were offshore. TK, it sure is an earthquake prone area… daily.

  11. Thanks, TK… Good morning, friends!

    Let’s hope and pray for the best in Haiti and Alaska. I just saw this on the Twitter account for the World Central Kitchen:

    A major 7.2 earthquake struck Haiti this morning, larger than 2010’s 7.0 but away from Port au Prince in a lower population area. All WCK staff are safe and we are mobilizing to support affected cities & towns in the south alongside
    @CoreResponse
    . We will share more updates soon.

    I shot these two photos of the approaching thunderstorm Thursday evening (links below.) Can anyone explain the rectangular shadow above the storm clouds? Is that a shadow of a towering cumulus? The sunset was behind that storm.

    https://imgur.com/tMnWTbS

    https://imgur.com/7O8ViQX

    1. It worries me that there have been now two large quakes in a few weeks period in that area.

      Awesome photos. What causes the clear section that shoots up from the clouds?

    2. That is simply a shadow being cast by a convective cloud tower. We see them often. That particular one, because of the location of the photo and the orientation of the clouds and light source, and ambient light, is quite pronounced from this view.

  12. Quite the temp spread on the 11AM reports between Bedford (83) and Boston (91). And dew points all in the lower to middle 70s in eastern MA with the exception of Boston which reports upper 60s. That location has certainly developed the habit of standing out lately. It’s working. 😉

  14. Thanks TK! Thinking of you and your mom. Glad to hear she’s doing better and love your positive outlook on it, which is no doubt contributing to her success! 🙂

    Weather-wise… Keep an eye on TS Grace. She may be a factor for us in some form or another during the week of the 23rd. The stronger she gets in the short term, the more we have to pay attention. Fred, probably not much of a factor, though he may sort of indirectly help enhance the shower/tstorm risk late this week. This pattern we’re going into is one which is pretty benign overall, but we’re at the time of year where tropical systems pose a constant “wildcard” threat.

    3. Fred was a great example of a low level swirl going so much further west than the models predicted, being directed by the low level flow.

      Current 12z GFS running, seems to be picking up on Grace.

      1. Are you positive it is only thing directing Fred 😉 🙂 🙂

        As far as Grace. I often called my mom Gracie….no idea why as it was not her name. She was a force to be reckoned with. I’m curious to see what happens with Grace.

        2. When I was young, the name Grace was a put-down among my siblings. It was short for a sarcastic “graceful.” For example, my sister would stub her toe on the table and trip only to and hear “Way to go Grace!”

  15. CAT 4 Hurricane Linda in the eastern Pacific. At least, as is the case with so many of their hurricanes, it will impact no land.

  16. 12z GFS projection of 949 mb hurricane along the central Texas coast, intensifying and not yet at landfall.

    1. this run, projects landfall at 947 mb, perhaps N of Corpus Christi, TX and SW of Houston, TX. Perhaps in the vinicity of where Harvey made landfall.

  17. Thank you, TK, for the explanation of the shadow on my storm photos!

    We had a downpour about 90 minutes and only added moisture to the air. 75 DP here; 77 down on the Cape. I haven’t felt it this humid in a long time!

    Speaking of the Cape, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning is up for the Sandwich-Sagamore area for a cell moving through.

  20. the models and Satellites been crapping the fan with these tropical systems. So called Grace might not even be a TD/TS as they couldnt find anything. Which is good there were people talking about a strong tropical storm moving into my area tomorrow. Now the models starting to shift everything well south of me at the 18th run, when at the 12 it went basically right over the VI. :)http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2021/al072021/track_early/aal07_2021081418_track_early.png

    1. Joshua, these are fantastic. Foxes in the back of your daughters flat and what a view she has. I love the phone booths. I love the feel of history.

      Mac was fascinated by the Citroën and would have loved to have one. His family has a Morris Minor and the five of them travelled Europe in one before getting a VW bug.

      Thank you very much for sharing. How special that you were able to make the trip happen and be with your daughter. London and England as a whole was a huge part of Mac’s life and his families.

      1. Thank you, Vicki.

        And thanks for sharing your stories of Mac’s European adventures, in a Morris Minor, no less.

        Really nice to hear about Mac’s fascination with the Citroën. I am similarly fascinated. Well, in my case obsessed; besides the Traction Avant I love the CX Prestige (the ultimate limousine) from the 1980s, or the early 70s sports car SM (Maserati engine), or the DS series (especially the DS 23), or the 2CV (`ugly’ duckling).

  23. I love the heat but boy this is some heat . I worked an overnight shift at the hospital last night & then had a job going at 8am this morning & it was tough . But saying that my crew can handle anything .

  25. Boston had the highest temp in NE today at 92. Was this the usual “bad” thermometer or did Logan truly earn it? 😉

    Was that high temp for the entire northeast as well?

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