Monday August 16 2021 Forecast (7:16AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 16-20)

High pressure overhead now will shift offshore through Tuesday and a warm front will approach the region later Tuesday. During the next two days there will be some high and mid level clouds around, though limited to mostly this morning during today before becoming more widespread Tuesday. The warm front will cross the region Tuesday night and introduce higher humidity for Wednesday through Friday. In addition, a couple disturbances including the remains of what was once Tropical Storm Fred will be pushed into our region, increasing the chance of shower activity, though the chance will not be that great and will be mostly over interior areas Wednesday before peaking on Thursday and continuing into Friday before diminishing later Friday.

TODAY: Partly cloudy morning. Sunny afternoon. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point middle 50s. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH..

TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Variably cloudy overnight. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 57-64. Dew point upper 50s. Wind E to SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Fog patches. Slight chance of a shower. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few showers possible mainly southwestern NH, central MA, and eastern CT. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers mainly CT/RI. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm until late in the day. Highs 75-82. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 21-25)

There is a little uncertainty in the forecast for the August 21-22 weekend. Expecting the main plume of tropical moisture to have shifted offshore, reducing the chance of showers from that, but a weak upper low over the Great Lakes trying to move into New England with additional shower opportunities, while high pressure to the north may do its part to send somewhat drier air into the region. Putting this together, leaving a slight chance of showers in, favoring Saturday, warmest and highest humidity day being Saturday with slightly cooler and less humid air arriving Sunday. Fine-tuning is going to be needed for that forecast as we go along this week. Based on the anticipated weekend scenario and the guidance that shows it best, will go for dry weather August 23 then slightly higher humidity and a return to the chance of some shower activity August 24 with dry air again attempting to move back into the region for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 26-30)

The guidance trend says the East Coast has a little less to worry about regarding potential tropical systems, but always keeping an eye out there. High pressure should be the dominant player with mostly rain-free weather and near to above normal temperatures.

56 thoughts on “Monday August 16 2021 Forecast (7:16AM)”

    2. The max flight level wind was 68 knots. The general rule is to take 20% off of the flight level winds to get the estimated surface wind,, which comes out to 54 knots, well short of hurricane status. NHC is only calling it 50 knots on the 11am advisory.

        1. Agreed. Charleston has consistently done an excellent job with getting the word out for preparation and warning. I’ve said here before, their evacuation strategies were always very successful.

  13. Its still comfortable, but noticing a few eastern Mass obs with dps that have climbed to or just over 60F.

  15. 3.24 ft surge now in Appalachicola. Interested to see what happens next 45 min to 1 hr as Fred is just to their west-southwest.

    Positive thing going for them is the tide is going out til 7pm tonight. So, the increase in storm surge right now is greater towards a lower expected water level, while the actual water level maintains or only slowly rises.

    Again, next hour, lets see if a further surge (ie, increase in water level) arrives.

  16. The entire gulf coast is a covid19 hot spot, and if these storms pull off what they have done last year in which they strengthen prior to landfall, the entire Gulf coast is going to be hit really hard. from storms and covid.

    also for anyone that has family or know people that have family in Afghanistan, my heart goes out to you. very sad what is going on.

  18. 3.88 ft storm surge in Appalachicola. Winds coming around from SE to S and increasing.

    Sustained at 40.62 kts, gusting to 45.49 kts at the guage site, which is obviously right on the water.

    Water level increasing, while expected water level, headed towards low tide is decreasing. So, its a double whammy with respect to storm surge. 4.59 ft is what the guage is measuring, expected to be at 0.71 ft.

    1. NHC predicted a surge of 3-5 feet, and with the center making landfall now, it probably will start to decrease very soon.

      1. That’s actually typical for down there. These are locations that are right at the coast and water temperatures are in the mid-80s.

  20. 4.01 ft at Appalachicola. Pressure still falling. Close to max surge. Lets see what max value it gets to ……..

    1. Winds SSE at 45.68 kt, gusting to 51.71 kts. Looks like the worst is passing through now at the Appalachicola guage. Surge at 4.10 ft.

      1. Surge at 4.23 ft. Pressure perhaps leveling off at 1001.1 mb

        4.77 ft actual vs 0.54 ft expected.

        Had this surge hit at 9am this morning, at their high tide of expected 1.9 ft, the water level would be sitting at 6.13 ft instead of 4.77 ft. It really can help some having a surge hit at a lower tide.

  21. I hope the constant updating of the surge isn´t too annoying.

    I find it fascinating to watch it come into shore and humbling that a mid strength tropical storm is producing this.

    For reference, the early January bombing noreaster of a few to several years ago, quickly passing by, but getting down to low 960 mbs, if I recall correctly, caused a 4ft surge in eastern Mass and there were water rescues in south shore communities and flooded streets in parts of east Boston.

  23. 4.56 ft surge.

    But …. the observed water level has stabilized. Its the expected level that is still dropping due to low tide around 6/7 pm that´s causing the differential to slightly increase. Pretty consistent tropical storm force winds last hour or so from due south.

  24. Nothing like an iced sun tea, sweet, after 2 hours of mowing the lawn. 🙂

    I’m not a fan of beer. 😛

    1. That sounds yummy. Today has a definite warmer feel than yesterday. Could be lack of breeze and slightly higher DP. No complaints. Just an observation

      1. Temperatures are comparable to yesterday, but the dew point spent much of yesterday afternoon in the 52-55 range where as today it’s climbed to the upper 50s. Not really that humid, but more humid than yesterday. The difference is apparent to me too – but I think pushing a mower for nearly 2 hours may have been a contributing factor in my case. 😉

            1. Yes. Winds were definitely lighter today. I could have used a bit more breeze out there mowing. Ma Nature was not listening to me. 😉

  25. Curious as to what you see for the cape over the next few days. Just started our vacation and hoping we miss most of the weather from Fred. Read that most rain would be in western Mass. Thanks.

    1. I sure hope you have a special week. But…

      Shhhhhhhhh webster MA is where wedding is 😉

      How about further west.

    2. I think you will get some showers & downpours but it doesn’t look like a super soaker for that area.

  26. The max Appalachicola surge ended up being 4.68 ft

    Winds now just 10.5 knots and the water level is dropping steadily.

  27. As I mentioned to TK earlier (and also in my blog), keep an eye on how far west Henri gets before turning northward. Some of the Ensemble members hint at the possibility at some impacts from the Carolinas to New England. Most of the members don’t, but the threat isn’t zero. At the very least, there’s going to be some rough surf for the Cape and Islands later this week.

    1. Definitely rough surf there.

      Even the op GFS from 06z has some showers over the Cape itself.

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