Tuesday August 17 2021 Forecast (7:26AM)

56 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 17-21)

A warm front will approach and pass through our region today and tonight. The clouds will be abundant, shower activity with this front will not be, staying mostly west and north of the region. The front will introduce much higher humidity for the rest of this week, along with a better opportunity for shower activity. The peak of this shower activity appears to be set to occur later Thursday through early Friday, associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Fred. After that, the axis of most concentrated moisture should push offshore with a diminishing though not disappearing shower threat for the balance of Friday. A push of high pressure from eastern Canada may kill the shower chance by early Saturday to start the weekend.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Fog patches. Slight chance of a shower. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few showers possible mainly southwestern NH, central MA, and eastern CT. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers mainly CT/RI. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the morning. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Numerous showers and possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Best chance of showers during the morning, diminishing during the afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point upper 60s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Slight chance of a shower. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 22-26)

Light onshore flow but only a small shower chance with coolest air along the coast for August 22 to end the weekend. We also have to keep an eye out for TS Henri offshore. While most guidance has it staying offshore between New England and Bermuda, it will be close enough to create rough surf along the coast and may be close enough to push a band or two of showers into far southeastern New England at some point, most likely August 23. Front from the west may bring showers August 24 before a drying trend and high pressure moving in later in the period with seasonably warm air.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 27-31)

High pressure is expected to dominate, with limited rain chances and fairly warm weather to end August.

56 thoughts on “Tuesday August 17 2021 Forecast (7:26AM)”

  8. I know not to rely on the NAM for tropicals.

    I will report that the 12z NAM has Henri at 1001 mb and that the 00z NAM at the same comparative time, had at 1014 mb. So, the 12z NAM is intensifying Henri more than the 00z NAM did.

    1. My family must be trying to attend the wedding. Fred was one of my closest uncles, Grace was my nickname for my mom. I hadn’t seen until you mentioned it. Henri was my dad. Is it rude for me to ask them to attend at a distance 🙂

    2. Some models bring Henri a wee bit too close to us on that 12z run. TK was Johnny on the spot with his forecast.

  12. The 12z GFS, though off shore, is a jump to the NW for sure compared to its 00z run.

    Would need something to cut off a bit near or just inland from the East Coast to yank it back or for the Bermuda High to retrograde to the west.

    That GFS scenario would be a surfers delight for days.

  14. The thing I do find interesting about Henri is it isn´t a storm located around the Cape Verde Islands where its 10 days or more out from any possible impact.

    We´d be talking 144 hrs or so for impact, if some steering pattern, that the models haven´t caught onto yet ever came to fruition.

  16. Tom if this was winter I would be saying looking at the GFS close but no cigar but trending in the right direction.

    1. Yup.

      Headed to watch Sox/Yanks game 1 @ 1pm.

      If Yanks sweep 3 game series, they´d be in 2nd place.

      I just hope Sox get at least 1 game, then they come home to hopefully do as well against the Texas Rangers, as they did against the Orioles. I was impressed that Yankees took 2 of 3 at the White Sox and really could have swept that series.

      Interesting AL East this year.

  17. Tom since the trade deadline when the Yankees added Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo there is energy and life in this team. They are only 5.5 games out of first place so winning the division does not seem like a long shot as it once did. They are getting healthy getting guys back from the COVID list and IL.

  18. 12z Euro doesn´t seem too high on Henri.

    But, the 500 mb flow looks interesting to me.

    I wonder what TK, SAK, WxWatcher might think about it.

  19. I was sad to read this that meteorologist Jeanetta Jones has past away. I watched her a lot when I was young.
    From meteorologist James Singleton
    Sad news in the weather community tonight. Just got word that Jeanetta Jones, longtime Weather Channel meteorologist from the mid 80’s to the mid 2000’s has died from COVID. Jones stepped down from her job at TWC after a brain injury from a serious car accident in 2006. She learned to cope with the symptoms which included vertigo. Never met her, but grew up watching her from the time I was in 3rd grade through my college years and the years that followed.

    2. Jimmy, I remember her fondly. She was one of the first meteorologists in the beginning of the channel. So sad.

      1. Helpful hint – maps like that, if the model name has an “I” at the end, it means that it hasn’t run yet, and what you’re seeing is a quick run of the model, which starts with the 6-hour position from the previous run, and no new data ingested. In other words, fairly useless.

  22. I think the Yankees are a better team than the Red Sox. It’s okay to say it. Yankees underachieved in the 1st half, by a lot. Red Sox overachieved in the 1st half, by a lot. It’s funny how things even out.

    I think the Yankees will not only catch the Red Sox (soon), but may overtake the Rays.

  27. You all will have to keep an eye on Henri. That ridge through each run of several of the models is getting stronger and could push Henri rather close to the coast.

    1. slowest approaching to southern new england tropical system

      I may have passed out at hr 129 🙂

      This is like seeing the NAM project 95 inches of snow.

      1. 4-7 inches of rain and maybe a cat 1 weakening to a tropical storm right up over eastern Mass

        This should light up twitter.

  31. 48 hrs from now, that feature at 500 mb shown trying to cut-off will be so cut-off and further west and southwest, that this thing will landfall in like, Delaware.

  32. The GFS Ensemble mean is still offshore, but not that far offshore, certainly close enough to bear watching, At this range, I’d pay more attention to the Ensembles than the Operational runs.

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