Snow Drought Continues Despite Cold Shots

114 Comments

4:26PM

This is not the first time we’ve seen this weather pattern, so before you believe anybody that says they have never seen anything like this, that’s only true if they were not born or not paying attention the last time. 🙂 While it’s true it is a rare pattern, it is not unheard of. And this will not be the last time we see it.

For some, the pattern is welcomed. For others, not so much. The reasons are obvious and not really needing to be stated here.

This weather pattern will continue to feature a lack of significant snow, but will contain shots of cold air between milder pushes of weather. The main storm track will continue to be through the Great Lakes and into eastern Canada, north of New England, due to the lack of blocking (the pattern that caused us the 6-week barrage of snow last winter), and a ridge of high pressure persisting near the southeastern US.

One such storm is passing northwest of us at this time, and the cold air being pulled in behind it is first sweeping in from the southwest, but as a couple troughs move through tonight, winds will shift more to the west and eventually northwest as temperatures start to fall significantly. A few snow showers and even a snow squall may accompany these wind shifts and falling temperatures.

The weekend (long for some because of MLK Jr. Day Monday) will be a cold one. Earlier this week, I though the coldest day would be the holiday itself, but it now appears this will be on Sunday. For the Patriots/Broncos playoff game in Foxboro Saturday night, it will be a very cold night, along with some wind. As stated before, you’ll want to bundle up big time if you are going to this one! Expect the temperature to be near 22 at kick-off and near 16 by the end of the game, hopefully as the Pats leave the field victorious! Winds out of the northwest may gust over 20 MPH, pushing the wind chill down below 10 at times.

As for the previously advertised disturbance bringing a chance of snow showers for Sunday, I’m going to scale it back but not eliminate it, as there are still solid signs of some energy moving through in the upper levels that day. Snow showers or no snow showers, it will be one heck of a chilly day, barely making it above 20. A slight temperature recovery can be expected for MLK Jr. Day on Monday.

The next storm system sails through the Great Lakes late Tuesday & Wednesday, with similar results to the one just gone by, except probably less overall precipitation. This will be fine-tuned as it is closer to occurring.

And before you ask, “graupel” (see below) is basically rounded tiny little snowballs that fall from the sky. Like sleet or ice pellets, except softer. 🙂

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower of rain, graupel, or snow early. Isolated snow showers and a very slight chance of a brief snow squall before midnight. Low 22-27. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting 35-45 MPH. Wind chill in the teens.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. High 29-34. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 8-13. Wind NW 10-15 MPH gusting to 25 MPH. Wind chill around zero.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated snow showers. High 17-22. Wind NNW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low -1 to +4 inland valleys, 5-10 most other areas except 10-15 urban centers and immediate shoreline. Wind N under 10 MPH.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Mostly sunny. High 30-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow or freezing rain early, rain showers later. Low 28. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny and windy. Low 25. High 35.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 32.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 16. High 33.

114 thoughts on “Snow Drought Continues Despite Cold Shots”

  1. Thanks TK – how ya feeling???

    Wind is still howling down here. House is shaking worse than yesterday with the wind off the ocean.

    Does anyone know what causes the foam on the ocean when the waves break? My husband doesn’t believe water makes foam on its own so we have been trying to figure it out. I told him I’d ask here since someone is bound to know.

    1. My guess is Phosphorus (as in soap and laundry detergents) that makes its way to the ocean via various sewer systems. LOL

      1. Shows you how much I know. Here it is from Wikipedia:

        Sea foam, ocean foam, beach foam, or spume is a type of foam created by the agitation of seawater, particularly when it contains higher concentrations of dissolved organic matter (including proteins, lignins, and lipids)[1] derived from sources such as the offshore breakdown of algal blooms. These compounds can act as surfactants or foaming agents. As the seawater is churned by breaking waves in the surf zone adjacent to the shore, the presence of these surfactants under these turbulent conditions traps air, forming persistent bubbles which stick to each other through surface tension. Due to its low density and persistence, foam can be blown by strong on-shore winds from the beachface inland onto sidewalks and streets.

        1. Wow thanks. Really interesting For the record before I saw your second post my husband thought your original explanation made perfect sense

      2. the wave action is a major part of it Waves picking up the sand that has small bacteria and other things in it. not all bad bacteria.

    2. I am doing well. Heart is fine. Migraine is gone. And I have beaten some cold virus I had. Thank you for asking and thanks everyone for your concern. 🙂

  2. Thanks TK for the update as always. As I mentioned in the previous post, whatever happens (or doesn’t happen) in February will be the same for March. I do believe that both months will have the same pattern…whatever that may be.

    Hopefully cold & snowy…otherwise a new record for least snowiest easily!

    1. 1.5″ = 2011-12*
    2. 9.0″ = 1936-37
    3. 10.3″ = 1972-73

    Fwiw…I do like Henry’s thinking about snow for February-March. We will certainly see. 🙂

  3. Another question. Is this wind going to stay strong through the night? I think the house is shaking so much we may be in Kansas by morning 🙂

    1. I think it is going to cut down somewhat later at night. But I believe it will still be breezy throughout tomorrow, ‘though.

      1. Breezy is good. Even windy is good. I’m laughing because I’ve never felt a house shake so much and we are used to being in the houses on stilts. I do hope they have an Internet connection wherever we land in Kansas so I can keep in touch 🙂

        1. Well, I haven’t seen any “twisters” around! 🙂 So I don’t think you will be going to Kansas!

          I am driving my husband crazy running and looking out the window – looking and hoping for snow! Just like I do in the summer when thunderstorms are around. 🙂

          1. We will just have to put our husbands in one house and you and me in another when storms approach. I literally sit in the window and everyone laughs at me

  4. About 15 mins. ago, the doppler radar showed an area of snow not too far from the west of Sudbury. I have been looking out the window to look for any snow – nothing but a fantastic sky full of fast-moving dark clouds in the darkening evening sky. Then I looked at the radar – and the snow just disintegrated! 🙁 Apologies to those out on the road, but I would have liked to see a snow squall. There appears to be more snow out west – bet that doesn’t make it too far east.

      1. I know. But at least we have the Patriots to look forward to. No matter what, I know they will win – no matter what anyone says!

        I like the Red Sox – especially if they are on a winning streak, so I guess I am not a hard-core fan; just a fair-weather fan! I don’t care for basketball or hockey – but I love to watch tennis. And I love football – especially the Patriots. Both my husband and me get kind of excited watching that – win or lose.

        1. I agree I do not think they go four and out, not this game anyways. As weird as it may sound I think they have a very good chance to make the superbowl. Weird because of there defense.

        2. I was a red sox fan in my youth. Good reason. I am lucky enough to name Ted Williams as an incredibly close family friend. Enough that he named his son (not someone to be proud of in hindsight) after my dad. The players I see now just don’t have the heart the players had then. Mac and I really enjoy football. Mac also loves golf.

  5. Last year this time, we already had 40.4″ of snow. We will be lucky if we see half of that total this winter.

      1. The wind is howling here. I am glad you were able to see the ocean and wind like you saw yesterday. You feel those storms big time on the ocean, rain or snow.

  7. This is a HELP WANTED AD that is currently running in the Boston Herald:

    Where was this “opportunity” last winter when we had 80″+ of snow?? Lol. 🙂

    SNOW SHOVELERS AND SNOW BLOWER OPERATORS

    Boggs Properties is now accepting applications.

    REQUIREMENTS: You must be available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week including holidays. You must be able to work each and every snow event. You must be able to get to the meet point quickly day or night. You must have appropriate outerwear for any winter conditions. You must be able to work long hours and be capable to perform the necessary work. We will pay $20.00 per hour for reliable persons.

    Please contact Boggsproperties@aol.com. Interested candidates Please Respond To This Ad With Your Phone Number So We Can Contact You For An Interview.

    Thank You. 🙂

    1. I think that is great. $20.oo is good too. They could make like $300 a storm. Not bad. I would think they would make at least $300 but depending on how many areas could make much more. A good storm could have you working 24hrs or more.

  8. parts of the berkshires and vermont is getting more snow . look at the radar you see that the snow is not going past the berkshires. Is this because the mountains are blocking the snow?

    1. Downslope snows happen often in VT, this is the reason for their snow as well as the lake effect machine streaming snow through NY into VT. I think the upper level disturbance coming through aids in producing the VT snow.

  9. Winter Storm Warning up for Northern Berkshire County and part of Vermont. In additon winter weather advisories posted around those areas as well.

  10. current temperature is 28 degrees and falling. wind coming from the west and northwest at 18 mph and feels like 20 and is cloudy.
    marshland behind the my house at stage 2 on a 5 scale. Also the water temperature is falling dramaticly and is now about 35 degrees and i am thinking we will start seeing ice coverage by saturday late night. sometimes if there is a breeze ice forms on the trees in my yard.
    stage1 less than 1.5 feet
    stage 2: 1.5 to 2.5 feet. close of flooding lower lying trails
    stage3: 2.5 to 3.5 feet floods most trails.
    stage 4 . 3.5 to 4.5 floods all trails and water makes it into the woods and goes into the parking lot other houses start seeing water reach their yards
    stage 5 : 4.5 feet or more, flooding of yards water over greater than 7 feet my yard starts seeing water my house use to be the largest house on the street with 2 stories and we are the highest point on the coastline/bank of the marshland. no there is a 3 and a half story house being built next store. my house use to have woods surrounding it . there was an old 1 story house but now they cut down a good amount of trees and brush and I am worried on what this will do to the envioment

  11. Love TK’s forecast and explanations. Also, love this website which is his creation. Finally, I am very happy to hear that TK’s health is in good shape and that his Dad is doing well.

    I respectfully disagree, however, with TK’s assessment of this 10 week period. I’m 47 and have spent 32 of my 47 years in the Boston area. I have never seen a 10 week period like this. A few have come close, but none have been this persistently mild and none have featured a southwesterly as consistent as this period. For goodness sake, there are dandelions growing on my parents’ lawn (I am not kidding!). Nor have I ever seen a snow and cold drought as widespread throughout the US. From Colorado to Buffalo to NE, there has hardly been any snow or significant and persistent cold. The number of days above 50 in Boston since late November has to be a record or close to it. The number of days (daytime highs) below freezing stands at a measly 3 or 4 (we’ll likely have 1 or 2 more this weekend, thank goodness). While that is not a record (yet), I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that records are broken in terms of temperatures when all is said and done.

    I do agree with TK that these kinds of patterns have existed in the past, both recent and distant. But, even the mildest of winters have been colder and snowier than this one – and here I am not just referring to Boston, also the rest of our nation (lower 48).

  12. Winds are really gusty right now, glad they will calm down a little for the game tomorrow. Tonight would have hurts the Pats big time.

    Joshua I have been in NE 17 years and have not seen anything like this winter with such abnormal high temps and low temps. We will look back in this in years and remiss on how awful it was, that is unless we get a couple beasts in Feb/March.

    1. I’ve been here for almost 40 years and never seen no snow to date and we r in mid jan, it’s crazy

  13. Regardless of what Feb brings ,this winter to some form will break records. I think we get some good storms next month, but with how things have been going we go reverse or keep going like this till spring. I have no idea. I think March continues to do what past have done last few years. But that is just my guess. Like I said we just Don’t know. I would be shocked if Boston does not see at least one snow event this month.

    1. R u backing away a bit John from previous predictions, I’m still going with the least snowiest 🙂

      1. I’m just guessing Charlie. But I thing the beast will come out and play soon. I still agree with you on winter will feel very short. Short in the way that there has been no long outbreak of severe cold and of course no real snow yet. I think we get the snow next month but in a short time period. Am I backing off, not yet. Remember all we need is a few good ones that’s it. I was amazed the other night when I got home from work around 5pm, It was still not all dark yet. Days are starting to get longer.

  14. By the way, the mild winter on this side of the Atlantic has been equally mild in Western, Northern, and Eastern Europe. While Austria did get walloped by significant snowfalls in recent days, the Alps have had very little snow, and many places in Western Europe have not even seen a single night of frost, let alone persistent cold (this includes parts of Holland, Belgium, parts of England, Wales, and Ireland.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jan/11/mild-winter-natural-world

    The images from North Korea surrounding the mass hysteria `caused’ by the death of Kim Jong Il suggest that at least over there, snow and cold have been the norm this winter. Generally, the Korean peninsula has similar weather to New England. Not the same patterns, but temperature ranges are similar, prevailing wind direction is similar, coastal areas have a similar interplay between continental and maritime climate zones.

  16. In the Guardian article (of which I included the link), there is a cool map of Europe on which people are mapping the `early spring.’ Actually, I’m surprised I haven’t seen someone publish a map like this in the US this winter. I do realize that over here we have had frost and some brief cold spells which would rule out some of the phenomena being observed in Europe. Nevertheless, I have been observing some very peculiar things, such as the dandelions I mentioned, flies in January (outside!), birds making incredible amounts of noise all winter thus far, and I just heard from my daughter up north that black bears are making appearances outside the lodge (which is not unheard of during the winter months, but very rare). I’m telling you, this may be a winter that will make an indelible mark because of its general absence. As someone interested in explanations, I’d like to find out what the specific reason is for this widespread natural phenomenon.

  17. I’m chuckling with the discussion that no one has seen a winter like this. Hmmmm global warming :))

    Just sayin

    1. Actually, I’m not on the global warming alarmist bandwagon, although I do believe it is a real phenomenon (it’s hard to challenge the fact that the last decade or so has seen the warmest years on record globally, each year in succession warmer than the previous one). This winter represents a real challenge to scientists, I think. A conundrum. And, I really believe that simply calling it a La Nina effect is somewhat of a cop-out. La Nina is part of the explanation, but there has to be something else going on. The pole and arctic regions (far north) are actually quite frigid. I do not know whether there will be a net gain in ice build up to offset last year’s significant ice loss, but I’d venture a guess that some parts will see some positive gains. However, the cold up there has been locked in place and has only made mini incursions southward. While it is true that places like Quebec City have experienced normal snowfall and only slightly above normal temperatures, it appears the arctic incursions south have barely made it across our border.

      1. Makes sense Joshua. Well to me. We had the discussion here a bit ago. Seems I started it then too. I have been known to stir the pot.

  18. Its amazing after the Pre Halloween Noreaster how the pattern did a big time switch. Once these patterns lock in they could lock in for a while as we seen here and they are slow to breakdown. The big difference this year compared to last year no High at Greenland to allow for blocking and giving us the opportunity for blockbuster storms and a weaker La Nina. I don’t believe in global warming and as I always say the weather does try to balance itself out.

    1. Funny JJ I was writing the same thoughts as you. You are much more knowledgeable than I am obviously. Really enjoy this blog.

  19. I respectfully disagree with the global warming talk. While it seems very unusual it really isn’t. Weather is cyclical and we just happen to be going through a cycle that has happened in the past. It also has a way of balancing itself out. Hopefully this doesn’t mean a cool and wet spring/summer…

    1. Agree on most points. Weather is cyclical and usually things balance out. Although this pattern is unusual in my view it has happened at some point in the past (not in my memory, but my memory is fallible). Moreover, the global warming debate has been politicized on both sides of the argument to a degree that I am uncomfortable with. This said, globally scientists are mostly in agreement that the earth is warming. I do not think one could call it dramatic warming, but the earth’s average temperature has been at record levels in recent years.

      I doubt whether this year’s winter has anything to do with global warming. It would be folly to suggest it does, as it is only one season. Generally, we throw out outliers in our analysis. I think this one will be such an outlier. The interesting thing will be to discover why it was such an outlier.

  20. And yet, with all the mild temps and no snow…it still feels like winter to me. I feel light deprived, I’m tired of it feeling like its 10pm when its only 6pm and by late this afternoon, I was cold. 🙂

  22. I think a positive of this hemispheric pattern is that the arctic has had colder weather than the past few winters. There is above avg ice in the Bering Sea due to Alaska’s very cold weather. That may actually reinforce the mild wx in the lower 48 by causing storminess in the Pacific due to increased temp contrasts. The storminess then floods the US with mild, pacific air.

    I wouldnt discount snow for this winter. It is so early in the scheme of things. In Feb, once the sun strength returns and the land masses begin to feel that effect, that alone could help to alter things enough to do the trick.

  23. Vicki I agree but somewhat different thinking though, global warming to me is indisputable. The tricky part of it is how much of it is man made vs pure global climate change. We clearly have influenced our environment with co2 etc… The amonunt of pollution just from the developing countries is enough to cause climate change. There are arguments that can be made on both sides. I just think we have enough evidence to show that our planet is changing ie ozone layer depletion, artic shelf shrinking. Also keep in mind that we will have greater and more severe type weather due to climate change. All of this IMHO:)

    1. Hadi I was making the comment somewhat tongue in cheek. My feeling is that we have influenced the climate and that this winter is not as out of the ordinary as we would think but there are other signs that are more convincing. I’m a firm believer that you cannot destroy a part (e.g. Rain forests ) and not expect it to affect the whole. And cyclical enters into the picture also but coupled with what man has done perhaps the scales tip

    2. Ur right on hadi, I believe anyone that turns a blind eye on global warming is not right IMHO, as of now it’s possible and for anyone that believes it or not we need more time to study to see how much is global warming and how much it’s not 🙂

  24. Hello all, up by the Sunday river ski area for the weekend. Only about an 8″ snow pack, which was built yesterday it seems.
    The last week of January may feature record warmth.
    Then we shall see how Febuary and March behave.
    By the way it’s good to see snow banks again.

  26. I see a big mild spell that goes from jan 22-Feb 2nd, temps could be back into the mid 40’s with consistency, absolutely nuts 🙂

  27. Some current Alaska morning temps…..

    Bettles : -53F
    Tanana : -53F
    McGrath : -50F
    Arctic Village : -45F
    Fairbanks : -41F

    1. Wow!! Impressive temps!

      The warmth on the EURO is scary in the long range. I would not be surprised to see temps in the 50’s the last week of January.

  28. But again balance will be in the cards, watch us get destroyed with snow in Feb and march or even worse a cool and damp summer.

    1. I agree………in spring, the atmosphere is usually turbulent as it attempts to balance the increasing warmth with the northern cold. I know its way to the north, but there is a lot of intense cold this winter at high latitudes. I think there could be some real intense late winter/early spring storms trying to achieve that balance and if our area can be north of one of those storms, then we’ll get clobbered.

  29. Data from Taunton NWS climate section……

    Monthly January Departures thru January 13th….

    Boston : +6.7F
    Hartford : +7.8F
    Providence : +6.2F
    Worcester : +7.0F

  30. Nothing like waking up in the morning to the day of a huge,huge game. Did anybody hear the remake of Ground control to major Tom, It was dedicated to the Denver QB. Go Pats.

    1. Hi John – just went to the cape for a bit and ended up having lunch at the hearth and kettle at the Cape Codder Resort – thought of you as I know you enjoy going there with your family!

      1. That’s great Vicki. As you can see really quick ride from here.
        It’s good to go there during school vactions, halloween or christmas as they have many things for the kids to do. I am not crazy about hearth and kettle. We had dinner at the olive garden when we were just there. My wife want’s to go for Feb vacation for a night or two, but not sure on that one.

    2. If anybody can find this song that would be great. We saw It on the news at lunch yesterday and we were all roaring. I would love to hear the entire thing. I searched you tube with no luck.

  31. Joe Joyce mentioned on his morning newscast that we will end the month of January on the warm side. I believe the last below normal month was June.

    1. I guess we were wrong on the prediction we had made for a storm this weekend. We will get one at some point. My predictions all done.

  32. Well that stinks. I guess will have to wait till February and hopefully a winter pattern will become sustained.

  33. This is the kind of winter that ends with a sizeable snowfall. “Dead” winters have often been bookended with significant events. One example is the 1981-1982 winter in which the winter started and ended with 2 blockbusters (December 5-6 1981 & April 6 1982). Though not a blockbuster, we already have the unusual October 29 snowfall. What comes to end this winter? And when?

      1. The December 1981 storm started on a Saturday as fairly wet snow but by night and into Sunday it became a powder blizzard. That was the storm that Dick Albert counts as his “greatest miss” as he forecast snow flurries on his Friday night broadcast. Not many people got that storm. Even the NWS missed it on the day it started.

        The April 1982 storm was a powder blizzard just about everywhere except the immediate coast.

        I had about 18 inches from the December storm and about 17 inches from the April storm here in Woburn.

        1. Thanks TK !!

          Its the April storm I remember more than the Dec storm and that Dec storm must have been an interesting setup if both Dick Albert and the NWS missed it that close to the event.

  34. The 96-97 winter comes to mind with the April Fools Storm. I still think we see on major Noreaster before winter is out and was one of my bold weather predictions for 2012.

  35. I am curious to see how Monday night/Tuesday morning playsout. There talking light snow, mix or freezing rain. Would anybody like to charm in on that. I hope everybody enjoys the game tonight. My wife and I heading into the city for a surprise 50th.

    1. if around and north of rt 2 look at morning mix then rain showers in the afternoon. all rain showers for everyone else

  36. Not a big storm system in terms of precipitation. Looks like a little mix interior before going over to some rain. All rain at the coast.

  37. Above normal precipitation in both 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks which is the good news. The bad news above normal temps in both the 6-10 8-14 day outlook. I think will have a setup similar to Monday night Tuesday rest of the month with a little wintry mix at the onset but mostly rain with any storm system that effects us.

  38. Boston’s Logan made it to 34F today and I think it will crack 32F Monday, so….officially, looks like it will only add 1 more subfreezing high to January for this particular cold shot.

    1. CH7 is saying 22 at kickoff and dropping into the teens during the game. No mention of the wind speed. Hope that helps.

      2. Although this will be a cold game, not as cold when they played the titans. But none the less This will be a cold night. Good luck fans who will be going. They may need to go with a hot drink instead of a cold beer.

        2. I just remembered I think Charlie is going to the game.
          Have fun, stay warm, and please do not get locked up again. LOL.

    1. THANK YOU-that was awesome. Dude your on your own. I am in tears here. Do ya think they should play that during the game. Thank’s again you made my night, so funny. I’m gona listen to it about 10 more times before I head out.

      1. I just called my father and played it for him. That is a hoot. I swear I am in tears here. Went to confession today I bet the priest would even like that. He is a huge pats fan.

            1. Agreed Hadi, game is far from over and Vicki, I guess I’m not rooting for one team or the other. Why do you not like NO ?

              1. They’ve spent a lot if time being mouthy. I didn’t like the way they kept driving up breezes points. Nothing concrete. Just sportsmanship

          2. NO favored by an FG in this one, but the 9ers are playing well and seemed focused. they were tough at the end of season.

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