Friday August 20 2021 Forecast (8:35AM)

199 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 20-24)

Tropical moisture lingers in the form of fog, drizzle, and a few showers, but a drying trend (in terms of rain chances) takes place today, but not so much humidity, that will be sticking around (pun potentially intended) for a while. A more general onshore flow will develop as we get into the weekend which will keep temperatures in check though, so no high heat to go along with the mugginess. As you know by now, a hurricane watch has been issued for the New England South Coast in response to the threat from Henri, which is going to make an approach to New England later this weekend from the south. There are still questions to be answered regarding the ultimate track of the center of that storm and this will determine the details of its impact on our region. This morning we see a variety of model solutions, which is no surprise, and we see a track from the NHC that brings the center onto the South Coast as a category 1 hurricane late on Sunday. However, there are scenarios on the table still covering a sooner turn to the left, or a jog to the right, and even a non-landfall. So the fine-tuning of this will be ongoing throughout the next few days so we can pin down what is most likely to happen and where. For this blog update, you won’t find grand detail in the forecast because I don’t feel that it is possible to responsibly do that yet. We should just be prepared for all of the things that a system like this can deliver and result in: strong wind with damage, heavy rain, flooding, power outages. Whatever Henri ends up bringing us, we will see improving conditions by later Monday through Tuesday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle with isolated showers into mid morning. Highs 78-85. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to E during the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point middle to lower 60s. Wind E under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Increasing chance of showers, favoring southern areas. Chance of thunderstorms favoring the South Coast in the afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 72-79. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH, may be stronger South Coast region later in the day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast with areas of fog. Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall possible. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle 60s to 70. Wind E to variable 10-20 MPH but could be stronger.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or showers in the morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 25-29)

High pressure will be the dominant force in the weather with mostly rain-free conditions and near to above normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3)

High pressure is expected to dominate, with limited rain chances and fairly warm weather.

199 thoughts on “Friday August 20 2021 Forecast (8:35AM)”

    1. What Is the Distance Between Degrees of Latitude?
      Degrees of latitude are parallel so, for the most part, the distance between each degree remains constant. However, the Earth is slightly elliptical in shape and that creates a small variation between the degrees as we work our way from the equator to the north and south poles.

      Each degree of latitude is approximately 69 miles (111 kilometers) apart.
      At the equator, the distance is 68.703 miles (110.567 kilometers).
      At the Tropic of Cancer and Tropic of Capricorn (23.5 degrees north and south), the distance is 68.94 miles (110.948 kilometers).
      At each of the poles, the distance is 69.407 miles (111.699 kilometers).

      This is rather convenient when you want to know how far it is between each degree, no matter where you are on Earth. All you need to know is that each minute (1/60th of a degree) is approximately one mile.

      For example, if we were at 40 degrees north, 100 degrees west, we would be on the Nebraska-Kansas border. If we were to go directly north to 41 degrees north, 100 degrees west, we would have traveled about 69 miles and would now be near Interstate 80.

      What is the Distance Between Degrees of Longitude?
      Unlike latitude, the distance between degrees of longitude varies greatly depending upon your location on the planet. They are farthest apart at the equator and converge at the poles.

      A degree of longitude is widest at the equator with a distance of 69.172 miles (111.321 kilometers).
      The distance gradually shrinks to zero as they meet at the poles.
      At 40 degrees north or south, the distance between a degree of longitude is 53 miles (85 kilometers). The line at 40 degrees north runs through the middle of the United States and China, as well as Turkey and Spain. Meanwhile, 40 degrees south is south of Africa, goes through the southern part of Chile and Argentina, and runs almost directly through the center of New Zealand.

      1. That’s pretty much where the comparison ends though because that was a very different storm.

        1. Oh, I understand that completely. I was not suggesting that at all. Just noticing the left hook. 🙂

          1. That hook would have significant implications, if it occurred, and not all of them are necessarily bad.

  9. Saw a tweet by someone comparing this to 1938. No.
    HUGE DIFFERENCE. That was an ignorant statement.

    They need to educate themselves on how different that system was from what this system can be, even at its worst. No 1938. Not even close. NOT EVEN CLOSE. That is the type of hype that fuels my anti-hype rage.

      1. I’d rather focus on the real dangers of the system at hand. Comparisons are ok in some cases, but they can get us into real trouble because a lot of people get into “carbon copy mode” when we use comparisons. This happened with that, so the same thing happens with this. It doesn’t always work that way. There are so many factors: Synoptic specific, regional changes (construction, population density). If a storm exactly the same as 1938 hit today it would be worse because of how much more of us there are and how much more “stuff” we’ve put in place for the storm to impact.

        But that said, this scenario is not 1938 at all. It’s not Sandy either. It’s Henri (2021). That’s where we need to focus.

    2. Very nice. thanks Tom.
      Water temp down to 77 still quite a distance South of NE.

      That will contribute to weakening and due to the slower forward speed of this system, it will likely weaken fairly quickly.

      Honestly, even if this track were to verify, I do not think it
      will be a hurricane at landfall. We shall see.

      1. Click on buoy and details and most buoys will display
        the water temperature, which is the whole purpose of the link. 🙂

      2. The jet stream projected orientation worrues me for extreme north and east outflow to maintain strength over upper 70F water temps.

        Also, with a hurricane being a heat engine, I wonder if the airmass with dps in the low-mid 70s up to the south coast can provide enough latent heat to the system, while over the smooth ocean surface.

        II don´t see any low level dry air ingesting into this thing. I am leary of weakening until land interaction.

        1. The slow movement is going to play a factor that actually helps. It’s not going to be able to maintain intensity this far north, which is one of the reasons I think the left hook / partial loop scenario is a better-case for a lot of people.

          Most of our tropical encounters are accelerating / transitioning systems. That acceleration and expansion of wind field in transition account for a lot of our wind issues in those things.

          1. Thanks TK, I agree with the benefits to that scenario ! Certainly not the normal 30-60 mph poleward movement.

            I just hope we don´t get stuck in the middle, where its moving 15 mph at the Gulf Stream northern wall and still has 8-10 mph momentum northward to the south coast, after which it loops, etc.

            If we´re looping/halting northward momentum 50-100 miles out in the ocean from the south coast, I´m in full agreement.

  15. Thanks, TK…

    I have a couple of questions that maybe somebody in the WHW Nation can help me with:

    When tropical cyclones reach us, don’t they usually zoom through? Doesn’t Henri seem to slow? It seems we may be dealing with him for most of Sunday into Monday????

    If it is a slow mover, does that impact any storm surge? If the storm moves very slowly, the all-ready high tides wouldn’t be able to move out.

    We have had more than 15″ of rain this summer. Wouldn’t strong winds bring down more trees seeing that the soil is so wet?

    Does this all make sense? I am in awe of all who post here. I have learned so much being here throughout the years.

    Thanks for any help.

    Just finished getting gas, water, burgers, cold cuts. Warming in There is no natural gas on our street. We lose power, we can’t use the stove. Grill time. Warming up the generator next.

    2. The slower movement, outside of potential rainfall amounts, is probably “better” news in some aspects. I just commented to Tom about this above.

  16. Thanks TK.

    Cannot believe I will likely be stuck in Miami tomorrow for what looks to be the first landfalling hurricane in NE in 30 years!

    1. Still a chance that 1) It is no longer a hurricane if/when it makes landfall. and 2) it never actually makes landfall.

  17. From eweather and when I saw the hurricane watch issued for parts of the shoreline I said to myself it has been a while since I seen one.
    In case you are wondering, it’s been 3,644 days since we had our last hurricane watch!

  18. LOL!!!
    You get Texas coming to town this weekend and you should be able to win that series. Depending on what happens with Henri it might only be a two game series as Sunday’s game could be postponed.

    1. Yup. Sale and Rodriguez next 2 days.

      Lets see, at Fenway, usually a SW wind or so is blowing out to center and left. The spring NE wind is into home plate, so a freshening easterly breeze Sunday afternoon would be from right to left. That could be fun for pop-ups and fly balls.

  19. HRRR asks the upper NJ shore if it would like to get in on the fun. 😉

    Now if that particular run was a representation of the actual outcome, Greater Boston area would have a muggy, breezy Sunday with a sun/cloud mix and a few tropical showers.

  21. 12z NAM …. hr 36 (8pm Saturday, I believe)

    Center looks projected at 37N, 72W, which is the heart of the northern Gulf Stream wall. (28C contour = 82/83F fahrenheit).

      1. (at hr 42) …… 39N, 72W, hitting the 26C = 80F contour.

        about 2 degrees north = approx 130 miles in 6 hrs = slightly above 20 mph movement north.

        1. (hr 48) 40N, 72.25W, need the Pythagorean theorem now with the slight left displacement 🙂

          65 miles in 6 hrs = approx 10 mph movement north

          1. I just had a flashback to Leo McKinnon, my 7th grade math teacher. But at least he could say it correctly.

            I had a college (non math) professor who insisted it was “Pythagorum’s Theory”. UGH!!!!

  22. 12z NAM landfall across the Twin Forks of Long Island before making another one in southeastern CT

    1. 3km version is further west (about half way between the 12km’s solution and the HRRR 12z solution).

      I still think we’re in the midst of model corrections. Not done yet.

  23. I think looking at the next 4 or 5 NHC track updates, we’ll see a westward shift on the approach portion, and a southward shift on the move-back-to-the-east portion as things correct closer and closer to the most likely scenario.

    1. Do you have any early thought as to whether the center moves back to the east over water or does it get north enough to move east over land in southernmost New England ?

      1. That part remains to be seen. I think right now if I had to say, it will find its way to land, but probably not as a hurricane.

        2. If it’s a tropical storm that could also have a significant impact. We have had some of these roll through the south shore leaving significant damage & power outages .

    2. In layman’s terms, does that mean the shift west you mentioned yesterday followed by a shift east and also south? Do,you see that happening south of here or over us? Right now, and I know it isn’t set in stone, dear old Henri seems to want to travel over both sons house and ours here.

      1. Yes, it’s a shift toward the scenario I described to you yesterday. It doesn’t leave all areas out of the woods by any stretch, and we’ll have to closely monitor of course. Henri seems to want to attempt to be part of the festivities. But I’m still optimistic, based on what you and I had talked about, that things can still work out. 🙂

          1. My fingers are crossed that all goes as well as it possibly can for all of this. I know we can’t control the weather, but we can monitor it and make the best decisions based on what we can tell.

  24. I can’t help but laugh at myself. I have lanterns, etc all set for the person staying here with the animals. But I also have them packed. I’ll be the one walking around the hotel prepared for a power outage.

  26. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=eus&band=Sandwich&length=24

    Yes, the circulation continues displaced from the big blob of convection.

    But, the outflow improves with each other and the system has a feeder band growing on its western edge.

    I think the models missed Fred’s intensity up to landfall by many, many mb. I don’t trust them bringing this down to high 970s, low 980s. Miss again by 10-12 mb and we’re talking mid-high 960s and a moderate cat 2.

    1. And then instead of hitting south coast at high 980s to low 990s, you might have it at high 970s to low 980s and a cat 1.

  29. I will be doing exactly what I did a year ago for Isiais getting the deck furniture in, making sure my battery powered radio is working, have my cell phone charged, and take out the flashlights. I am hoping this is not a repeat of Isiais.

      1. ICON has done decently but thats not saying much as the models in general been having trouble with TC genesis. GFS did a decent job last season, then they decided to mess with it and its way worst this year than last year. What ever they did to try and improve the models over the past year has broken them. Seriously wish they still had the old GFS running to do more of a comparison.

  31. RDPS 12z is closer to the loops scenario, though it’s in no hurry to actually move the center back to the east on that particular run.

  32. That is a bad track for my area. Coastal flooding at the CT shoreline and we would be on the worst side of the storm with the strongest of the winds. Fortunately that is not the final outcome.
    TK when I was reading the local hurricane statement for CT there was not a concern for tornadoes. Will this be a rare case where if Henri makes landfall there won’t be much of a tornado threat?

    1. There will be a threat, I’m sure. They are not going to really hit that threat until they are far more certain where the center goes, then they can figure out the orientation of the greatest shear, etc. These storms have “rules of thumb” but each one has its own little quirks.

      Yesterday, for example, the “steadiest” rain area was left of the remains of Fred, but the heaviest rainfall was right of the track just due to the intensity. Granted, that was over land longer and a remnant low really, but still just an example of how each system has its own little set of details.

  35. I will have another blog up at some point today, but I have no idea when, as I have a very long shift ahead of me (4pm to 3am). I’ve also decided that since I will be home (but still working some) on Sunday, I’m going to do my first ever live blog all day Sunday into Monday.

    From my extensive music collection, I’ve come up with my own playlist for Henri:

    Rock You Like a Hurricane – Scorpions
    God of Thunder – Kiss
    Before the Storm – Queensryche
    The Storm – Jim Steinman
    Wings of the Storm – Whitesnake
    Inside the Vortex – Ace Frehley
    Red Skies – The Fixx
    Change in the Weather – Tesla
    The Tide is High – Blondie
    Hell or High Water – Kiss
    Clouds Race Across the Sky – Joe Satriani
    Against the Wind – Bob Seger
    Summer Wind – Frank Sinatra
    Second Wind – Cinderella
    Ride the Wind – Poison
    Reap the Wild Wind – Ultravox
    Respect the Wind – Van Halen
    Here Comes the Rain Again – Eurythmics
    When the Rain Comes – Queensryche
    Let it Rain – Warrant
    Rain – Kiss
    The Rain Song – Led Zeppelin
    Liquid Sky – Queensryche
    I Like the Rain – Joe Satriani
    I Can’t Stop the Rain – Peter Criss
    Fool in the Rain – Led Zeppelin
    Mr. Rainmaker – Warrant
    Another Rainy Night (Without You) – Queensyche
    Crying in the Rain – Whitesnake
    Raining Blood – Slayer
    Who’ll Stop the Rain – Creedence Clearwater Revival
    After the Rain – Nelson
    Chasing Blue Sky – Queensryche

  36. For the Jeopardy! fans Mike Richards has resigned as host. The new season will start with guest hosts.

    1. Why not just use Mayim Bialik. I’m hoping that is her choice and not jeopardy’s. I didn’t like the choice of Richards to begin with.

      2. I like Mayim as well. She should be the new, permanent host.

        I recently heard some controversy with Mike Richards anyway. No idea what it was though. Did he post something on Facebook or Twitter?

  37. GFS down to 973 mb at max low pressure and at 984 mb near ¨landfall¨ with south coast.

    Its a guess on my part, but I think that´s closer. Take 3-5 mb off each is my guess for max intensity and ¨landfall¨.

    1. The GFS has landfall at Montauk as a 55-knot tropical storm at Noon on Sunday with a pressure of 990mb. It then rapidly weakens and heads up the CT Valley before turning NE near Lebanon late Monday morning.

        1. One of the many reasons I subscribe to WeatherBell – for the GFS you have tons of map options, but also, for many of the parameters, like wind and precipitation, you can get 1-hourly maps for the 1st 120 hours (Ditto for the ECMWF for the 1st 90 hours).

          1. I can see how that´s a lot more helpful than the 3 hr panels I am looking at, especially in this particular scenario.

  40. That GFS solution is terrible for CT in terms of impacts. I am going to be coming home to a mess if that verifies.

    Vicki, sorry to hear about Greylock. What are they going to do about rescheduling the wedding?

      2. I hope they can work something out. Added stress I’m sure they are not wanting to deal with right now.

  41. High tides Saturday PM, Sunday AM and Sunday PM

    NYC (Battery)

    Sat 8:25 pm (5.8 ft)
    Sun 8:55 am (5.1 ft)
    Sun 9:11 pm (5.8 ft)

    Montauk, NY

    Sat 8:56 pm (3.0 ft)
    Sun 9:18 am (2.5 ft)
    Sun 9:43 pm (2.9 ft)

    Providence, RI

    Sat 8:14 pm (5.6 ft)
    Sun 8:36 am (5.1 ft)
    Sun 9:01 pm (5.6 ft)

    New Bedford, MA

    Sat 8:07 pm (4.8 ft)
    Sun 8:28 am (4.4 ft)
    Sun 8:53 pm (4.7 ft)

    1. I agree. I think similar in max winds at the peak but much more rain and a much longer duration storm overall.

      Isiais was basically a quick moving 6 hour wind storm with little to no rain for us.

  43. Question. I’m not sure if SAK meant Lebanon CT or VT but am assuming VT if Henri travels up CT river valley.

    Sooooo. If henri is to the west of Sutton, does that mean most rain will also be to our west? In addition to the wedding, we are very worried about heavy rain coming back in the foundation crack.

    1. Lebanon, NH, right on the CT River (hence the comment about moving up the CT Valley before turning NE at Lebanon). Lebanon, CT is only 20 miles from the CT coast and well east of the CT Valley, and there is no Lebanon in VT.

      1. You are right. I often think of many towns in that area as interchangeable. But you didn’t answer the main question

        1. I have the same issue as a close childhood friend moved across the border from Lebanon, NH to Norwich VT – I sometimes think of them em masse as “Dartmouth Hitchcock land.” 🙂

          1. I’m laughing as that makes perfect sense to me. I associate white river junction with my nana and riding with her on the train to VT. So to me everything there is VT

          2. I have actually been laughing for a bit because one of our first and continued clients was Mascoma Savings in Lebanon.

  44. I don’t like that track moving the storm just west of Boston. My concern is not just heavy rain but mostly damaging SE winds engulfing the city. When JPD posted those NHC maps this morning that was the first things I thought of.

    Isn’t the “right” of the track with the most wind damage?

  45. Yes the right side is the side where your highest winds happen and can’t rule out brief weak tornadoes.

  46. The NHC, on its intermediate advisory, has raised the winds to 70 mph and estimated a slightly lower pressure of 994 mb

    1. How did the models initialize with pressures close to 994mb? The storm strengthening seems to be on track.

      1. 6 hrs into the Euro´s 12z run, which I think is 2pm, the Euro is 5 mb too low, at 999 mb, assuming the estimated pressure is correct. Next recon plane this evening.

    1. with the Euro trying to play catch up by hr 48, that its still strengthening Henri well north of the northern part of the Gulf Stream. 987 mb

  48. Probably a dumb question, but I’m seeing mostly warmer than average ocean temperatures along the cone of possible Henri paths. Wouldn’t that support the notion of a storm that retains relative strength, even as it meanders northward?

    2. Its relative to average.

      So, an average water temp of 65F can be running 5F above average and its still too cool to provide the warmth a hurricane thrives on.

  50. What scares me is the fact that Henri is just going to be milling around just west of Boston for 24+ hours. This seems like a recipe for lots of city tree damage to me, anyway. Maybe it’s not 1938, but it appears something that most of us haven’t dealt with for a number of years, if ever, depending on age.

    Why does Henri zoom up to the South Coast, then practically stops in place when it reaches our latitude?

    1. I just saw your response above TK! I still would like those other questions answered at your convenience. I hope that track can bend “eastward” before it arrives Boston.

  53. I definitely see a theme here.

    1. Many models want Henri to turn left and take it to Western Ct/NYC
    2. Models have it with slow movement allowing weakening over
    sub-optimal temperatures of the ocean up this way.

  54. When its late Saturday night/Sunday morning and Henri has 90 mph sustained winds, don´t assume that there are 90 mph sustained winds extending hundreds of miles east from the center.

    Just past the Gulf Stream and probably a couple hundred miles of the south coast, there will be a core of strong winds, especially north and east of the center.

    As the system slowly moves north/north northwest over cooler waters, those strong core of winds will ease, while they spread out a bit.

    Also, a second wind area may develop in eastern areas due to the pressure difference between Henri and high pressure to the northeast.

    So and I think the HWRF that JpDave posted shows this really well. By ¨landfall¨, when the winds are reported probably around 70 to 75 mph sustained, what we may actually see if a core around the center of 50-55 mph winds, particularly just to the east, another max area of 30-35 mph winds along eastern Mass and then a large area of breezy to occasionally blustery conditions.

    But, I don´t think sustained winds of 75 mph, with gusts to 100 mph are coming, even if the hurricane meets the projected intensity criterias.

    1. How you like pembrike , marshfield & Scituate Tom . You are on a roll today with information & please keep it coming . My wife is going to dollar tree tonight to get batteries for everything.

      1. Breezy, windy Sunday. Winds all day 20-30 mph, gusts to 40, maybe 50. Early day winds from the east, veering to SE and S during the day. Not much rain, could be mix of sun and clouds by afternoon, tropical feeling.

        I reserve the right to change my mind tomorrow 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  55. With the ground so saturated with all the rain we have had this summer it won’t take much in the way of wind gusts to knock down trees and cause property damage along with power outages. Once Henri leaves the airmass is still going to be very humid and hopefully if power is lost it won’t be long because no power and very humid weather is not a good combination.

  56. I hope Eversource does a better job restoring power than they did with Isiais.
    Tweet from Matt Austion of WVIT in CT
    A ‘LEVEL 3’ EVENT: classification of #Henri means the possibility of up to nearly half of customers losing power for up to 10 days.

  59. Regardless of track, some reasons for cautious optimism on Henri, at least in some regards, this afternoon. Models seem to be keying on more weakening as it approaches, maybe because they have it slowing down a little more and earlier. As TK has said, all of our historically “big” impacts in New England occur with accelerating storms. Also, it is struggling at the moment. The center remains nearly exposed north of its convection, despite expectations for the wind shear causing this to relax. There will be no substantial intensification until that changes, if it ever does.

    Having said that, certainly worth continued close monitoring, especially near the coast! Definitely seems to be a trend westward with possibly more impacts for the CT/NYC/NJ areas.

  63. If the current NHC forecast track and intensity becomes reality, what can be expected in the Boston area in terms of impact? I know we would be in the northwest quadrant, but at least couple hundred miles from the center.

        1. I wondered. But only because I do that so often I can’t count. I often say my BIL lives about 15 miles west of San Francisco.

    2. I don’t think much if it keeps that current path . CT I believe has issued a state of Emergency.

      1. Yes we are under a state of emergency in CT. Latest gfs follows the center line from the hurricane center.

  64. Bad track for me. I would be on the heavy rain side. Mark would be on the side with the strongest winds.

    1. That was a run with lower pressures …..

      min pressure : 970 mb, 2nd landfall on CT coast : 986 mb.

      Recon plane in Henri now. Hasn´t sampled right side yet.

      Still worried this thing is going to overacheive with respect to intensification.

  67. Another high altitude mission is being flown, data I´m sure will end up in 00z models.

    Feel like I´ve seen some 18z runs crossing eastern most Long Island.

    If today´s changes hold, yes, bigger impact out west. Goes over eastern tip of Long Island or coastal RI, central and eastern sections have a bigger impact.

    Feel like projected pressures are down (stronger) a few mb on 18z runs so far.

    1. I got the idea the stronger ensemble projections were the solutions west of the Cape a couple days ago and the weaker solutions were east of the Cape.

      So, I think there can be a 970 mb min pressure, with a low to mid 980 mbs landfall on eastern tip of Long Island or east towards RI that has an impact on our area. I don´t think these strength pressures automatically mean central Long Island into Central CT or even further west.

      Curious to see the 00z spaghetti plots and runs. It would take the slightest less effect from the cut-off upper level low or a slightly weaker Atlantic ridge to nudge the track slightly east from earlier today.

    1. I absolutely could be wrong but I’m not sure if a SOA will be needed or not . I guess we will find out .

  70. A USAF reconnaissance plane has recently gotten a fix on Henri’s center and found a pressure of 995mb. This indicates the storm has not intensified today, as the most recent advisory had a pressure of 994mb. Most models (especially HWRF/HMON) were initialized a few mb too strong on the most recent cycle. and will be considerably off (too strong) on their 0-12 hour forecasts, at least. Will be interesting to watch the recon flights in the next couple days now that we’ll have near constant data coming in. If it starts a strengthening trend, the planes will tell us. The cloud pattern of the storm does look a little better to me this evening with some indication that it’s starting to respond to the lower shear.

    1. WxWatcher I am so rooting for shear to disrupt this storm as the track is not good for CT. I am already mentally preparing I am going to be without power for a few days.

      1. one plane is at 10,000 ft, the other at 5,000

        you can definitely see the lower level circulation is NW of the circulation at 10,000 ft. They are tilted for sure.

    1. Interesting. Slower approach? I like the less rain here. Crack in foundation is patched inside and out but has to dry before SIL can fill. The less rain, the better our chances

        1. Thank you. Vows may be tomorrow night if greylock folks approve. They are trying so hard to accommodate

      2. Westerly approach looks like it exposes it to more land before it hits Massachusetts so that’s good for weakening it – if this westerly track stays true. Worst impacts in NY and CT.

        1. I like weakening scenario but…..I don’t want to wish for NY and CT to have a bad outcome. Ugh. I’ll just wish for it to go poof.

  72. Eric Fisher about five minutes ago:

    Current thoughts on wind gusts Sunday as #Henri arrives. Landfall point still bouncing a little, but favoring between eastern Long Island and Narragansett Bay. With saturated ground, it will probably only take gusts over 30-35mph to bring down trees.

  74. A little while ago, AccuWeather (TV) had 80-100 mph where Henri makes landfall and 60-80 mph in my area.

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