This gives a strong insight as to why we’d never get to herd immunity: https://youtu.be/pd8P12BXebo caution: pretty sad to watch.
That about sums it up. We are in deep trouble.
It is heartbreaking. I don’t understand why we cannot stop the governors and senators who are literally and knowingly exposing their constituents to serious illness and too often death. These subhuman elected officials are also in good part responsible for keeping covid alive. I vote for a closing of the borders in those states at the very least
Too harsh a comment?
I wouldn’t say too harsh – very passionate is more my takeaway. My only point of contention is on the idea of an internal border closing for states. There are many people who through no fault of their own are trapped in life in those states who something like that would profoundly affect. I agree with the sentiment about officials in charge, however. But regarding those officials: as their states get harder hit and their constituents ask more questions you will see some reverse the course of the ship. Or at least try to. But when you’ve got your soldiers firmly entrenched it’s hard to change their mindset. Look at what happened this week when Trump told people to get vaccinated: https://youtu.be/eA306aNtvmk he immediately realized he had to dial it back and talk about freedoms and joke around.
Thanks, Dr S. He is pathetically transparent
I was arguing with myself re borders. The thought came to mind because Hawaii stipulates that you are either vaccinated or need a negative covid test before entering. This is more of what I had in mind. But I also understand Hawaii is a different animal. I agree you can’t close borders. As is the case with many, my son lives in one state and works in another. I feel as if there has to be some way to stop these politicians. I also agree you will see some constituents begin to see how wrong they are, but I honestly don’t think it will be enough.
I am not a fan of his, as everyone knows. But, I recognize that his Administration played a part in getting the vaccines through the approval process in record time. Also, the decision to purchase large quantities of vaccine, even before they were approved, was a good one.
I saw the crowd reaction to Trump’s appeal (at the rally) to get vaccinated. I think it actually surprised him that people would boo something as innocuous as what he said. But then he went along with the crowd, because he needs to be constantly adored and adulated. A more responsible person would say, “really, folks, you need to get vaccinated, we’ve suffered for too long during this pandemic, please do it, for yourself, your loved ones, and others.” Trump can’t do that. He projects a powerful person. And he is a lumbering giant, seemingly brimming with confidence. But, when surrounded by sycophants he can’t bring himself to challenge them. Here’s where I do see a big difference with Biden. For all of my criticism of Biden, he does own up to his mistakes, he accepts responsibility, he doesn’t depend on others’ adulation for his confidence. He’s quietly a much more secure person than Trump.
Truly interesting. So mitigation was, in the end, what brought them to zero
Joshua do you agree with Fauci that normalcy could return in Spring 2022 and there is light at the end of the tunnel?
I, for one, do NOT. We shall see.
I saw Fauci asked this. Odd part was that as he said spring 2022, the caption below read fall 2022. I’m inclined to use the words from his mouth before a media caption. As is the case with Dave, I’m in wait and see mode. As long as we continue to give mixed messages, approve activities that create more positives, and listen to the self serving politicians……maybe not so much
I was listening to a radio talk show on WGBH with the conversation on boosters. The guest stated that we should stop using the word “booster”. He said that people actually require 3 shots for full vaccination as opposed to just two. He then suggested that there may be additional “boosters” thereafter.
Does this mean that most of us are not “fully vaccinated” after all?? Oops!
This is an excerpt from the link I’ve posted a few times. I’ll share the link again here, Philip.
Health officials don’t want to wait until the nation gets stuck behind the pandemic eight ball again, but some experts worry the move was premature.
Dr. Jeremy Faust, an emergency medicine physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital, is skeptical of boosters for the broader population so soon.
“The risks are unknown, and the benefits are unknown. I can’t, as a responsible physician, give someone advice, when I haven’t been able to weigh those two things,” Faust said, cautioning against taking a “shot in the dark.”
Waiting for the data
Pfizer and Moderna have gauged side effects from a third shot tantamount to the primary course — fever, sore arm and fatigue — while the rare risk of more serious side effects, like myocarditis, remains.
Faust points out the clinical trial data and real-world success of the vaccines have been an undeniable “slam dunk” thus far, but third doses are uncharted territory.
“The science on this is unavailable. And that’s not a place where we’ve been before,” Faust said, noting the risk of myocarditis has shown to happen more frequently after the second mRNA dose.
“What’s the third dose going to do?” Faust said. “Is a third dose going to hospitalize more people for myocarditis than we’re actually getting in return for the third dose of vaccine coverage? We literally don’t know.”
JJ and others, yes, I think that more normalcy will return by the spring of 2022, the caveat being that we don’t get worse variants. If we can up the vaccination rate, which apparently has been happening to some degree, and if we can get boosters in the arms of those who need them, we should be able to have some more normalcy next spring. I’ve always used the crude indicator of getting deaths under 100 a day nationwide. If we can do that, we can say the pandemic is for all intents and purposes over. Unfortunately, we’re nowhere near that benchmark. We were getting close back in late June when we briefly went under 300 deaths a day. But now we’re well over 1,000 a day.
Vicki, I have seen Fauci’s comments, but I’m surprised by them. Our data on vaccine’s waning immunity is obsolete for the most part. We should be relying on Israeli and UK data for boosters. Their public health authorities are not only encouraging boosters, they’re demanding them for the vulnerable. I completely agree. I am sure the benefits outweigh the risks. A growing number of fully vaccinated people in Israel and the UK – most are vulnerable, and were vaccinated 8 months ago – are dying from Covid-19, because the vaccine’s immunity has waned considerably.
The comments in the link that I found of interest are from Schaffner (Vanderbilt) and Faust (Brigham). I don’t have the sense they are not saying not to get a booster. They are cautioning that not to get to early. They state that it is too soon to know They are clear that immune compromised folks should be first, but seem to believe we need better data before the next step.
It seems to me to be a more honest discussion than many I’ve heard from politically connected folks.
Adding. Immune compromised folks are the individuals who had the vaccine eight months ago. I was in second wave and have until Dec 1 to hit 8 months
Vicki, thanks for posting the messages from Faust and others.
I’m just not in agreement with the “we need more data” statement from Faust and others. The data is right there, in Israel and the UK. We don’t need to rely on poor or obsolete U.S. data. CDC is a train wreck, I’m sorry to say. It’s like they operate at dial-up speed.
Israel now has 25 to 30 deaths a day, (that’s a lot in a country with 8 million people) and nearly 700 in ICU (also a high number). In Israel, at least 45% of current deaths and 55% of ICU folks are fully vaccinated (Pfizer). In part this reflects the fact that Israel has such a high vaccination rate and they vaccinated earlier than everyone else. But it’s clear that vaccines are losing efficacy. We need boosters. Probably all of us. Yes, there are risks. But there are risks associated with every medicine we ingest and every inoculation, too. The data from hundreds of millions of administered vaccines suggest the risks are minimal, and the benefits outweigh those risks. The longer CDC and others dither, the deeper this Delta wave is going to penetrate, not just in other states, also in states like Massachusetts where a sizable number of people in nursing homes and other elderly are losing vaccine immunity (they got their shots in January). If the caseload was much lower, I wouldn’t worry as much. But the caseload is way, way too high, which indicates transmission is a real possibility for vaccinated folks.
I do worry about our lack of understanding what other countries have done. I have yet to hear anyone in this country mention the Data from Israel that says efficacy is down to low 80 for preventing serious illness or even death
Do other countries have data on any adverse effects of boosters too close to last vaccine. That was the data I thought they were referring to. It didn’t seem to be whether we need boosters but timing in between. I saw a tiny bit if a red flag when we originally said 6 months and then went to 8. I tend to agree we need to make sure the booster is spaced to give the most immunity while not causing any problems.
Do you know what Data we have on best practices for spacing.
My healthcare provider reached out to me this afternoon to set up an appointment for Covid vaccine #3.
My appointment is for Wednesday morning September 1. Wish me luck!
🙂
Vicki, from what I’ve gauged the worst risks from the mRNA vaccines (whether the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or more) are for the 12 – 17 age group. This is where myocarditis is showing up and is a risk worth worrying about. But, almost no-one is saying give boosters to this group. It’s about the >40 age group. And the age cutoff may come down over time a bit. I don’t know the ages of WHW folks, but I’m guessing the >40 criterion means that many of us will be in line for a booster soon.
Israel is about 3-4 weeks ahead of the U.S. in terms of its Delta wave, but its trajectory has been even more explosive than ours (on average). This should concern us. Israel’s vaccination rate is similar to Vermont’s and NH’s. I fear that states that are doing okay right now, as Israel was until some time in July, may not be doing so well soon. And it’ll be because of waning immunity among the vulnerable, which is a large group, not just the immunocompromised. I consider anyone above 65 to be vulnerable, anyone with diabetes to be vulnerable, anyone with kidney disease, etc …
If Israel’s situation was a casedemic – only cases, not translating into hospitalizations or deaths – I’d be much less concerned. But, Israel’s situation (the UK’s, too, though to a lesser degree) is not a casedemic.
Extrapolate the Israeli data on deaths/day and you get well over 1,200 a day in the U.S. Keep in mind that because we have many more unvaccinated folks the number here would be significantly higher. We don’t want to be enduring this kind of pain.
By the way, the U.S. crossed the 100,000 hospitalizations threshold today.
Thank you. The article did mention myocarditis. As you know my youngest and I had an issue with irregular heartbeat a week ish after our second vaccine. I’ll be watching closely.
This will not be a one-off NY thing. I think that many states have done a poor job of reporting, and in some cases there has been manipulation of data (eg, Florida).
C-19 for 8-26 is ready.
Comments are closed.
Your no-hype southeastern New England weather blog!
This gives a strong insight as to why we’d never get to herd immunity: https://youtu.be/pd8P12BXebo caution: pretty sad to watch.
That about sums it up. We are in deep trouble.
It is heartbreaking. I don’t understand why we cannot stop the governors and senators who are literally and knowingly exposing their constituents to serious illness and too often death. These subhuman elected officials are also in good part responsible for keeping covid alive. I vote for a closing of the borders in those states at the very least
Too harsh a comment?
I wouldn’t say too harsh – very passionate is more my takeaway. My only point of contention is on the idea of an internal border closing for states. There are many people who through no fault of their own are trapped in life in those states who something like that would profoundly affect. I agree with the sentiment about officials in charge, however. But regarding those officials: as their states get harder hit and their constituents ask more questions you will see some reverse the course of the ship. Or at least try to. But when you’ve got your soldiers firmly entrenched it’s hard to change their mindset. Look at what happened this week when Trump told people to get vaccinated: https://youtu.be/eA306aNtvmk he immediately realized he had to dial it back and talk about freedoms and joke around.
Thanks, Dr S. He is pathetically transparent
I was arguing with myself re borders. The thought came to mind because Hawaii stipulates that you are either vaccinated or need a negative covid test before entering. This is more of what I had in mind. But I also understand Hawaii is a different animal. I agree you can’t close borders. As is the case with many, my son lives in one state and works in another. I feel as if there has to be some way to stop these politicians. I also agree you will see some constituents begin to see how wrong they are, but I honestly don’t think it will be enough.
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/08/23/1029737143/breakthrough-covid-infections-add-even-more-chaos-to-schools-start-n-2021
Some positive news for J&J vaccine people: https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Health/jj-vaccine-booster-shot-raises-antibody-levels-fold/story?id=79631467
Interesting comments on Trump, Dr. S.
I am not a fan of his, as everyone knows. But, I recognize that his Administration played a part in getting the vaccines through the approval process in record time. Also, the decision to purchase large quantities of vaccine, even before they were approved, was a good one.
I saw the crowd reaction to Trump’s appeal (at the rally) to get vaccinated. I think it actually surprised him that people would boo something as innocuous as what he said. But then he went along with the crowd, because he needs to be constantly adored and adulated. A more responsible person would say, “really, folks, you need to get vaccinated, we’ve suffered for too long during this pandemic, please do it, for yourself, your loved ones, and others.” Trump can’t do that. He projects a powerful person. And he is a lumbering giant, seemingly brimming with confidence. But, when surrounded by sycophants he can’t bring himself to challenge them. Here’s where I do see a big difference with Biden. For all of my criticism of Biden, he does own up to his mistakes, he accepts responsibility, he doesn’t depend on others’ adulation for his confidence. He’s quietly a much more secure person than Trump.
Taiwan is a relative success story. They’ve beaten back the outbreak that began in May. Cases down to 0. Taiwan was very successful throughout 2020 and early 2021, then suffered a setback, though they’ve met the challenge. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/25/taiwan-zero-covid-cases-outbreak-vaccine-test-trace
Truly interesting. So mitigation was, in the end, what brought them to zero
Joshua do you agree with Fauci that normalcy could return in Spring 2022 and there is light at the end of the tunnel?
I, for one, do NOT. We shall see.
I saw Fauci asked this. Odd part was that as he said spring 2022, the caption below read fall 2022. I’m inclined to use the words from his mouth before a media caption. As is the case with Dave, I’m in wait and see mode. As long as we continue to give mixed messages, approve activities that create more positives, and listen to the self serving politicians……maybe not so much
I was listening to a radio talk show on WGBH with the conversation on boosters. The guest stated that we should stop using the word “booster”. He said that people actually require 3 shots for full vaccination as opposed to just two. He then suggested that there may be additional “boosters” thereafter.
Does this mean that most of us are not “fully vaccinated” after all?? Oops!
This is an excerpt from the link I’ve posted a few times. I’ll share the link again here, Philip.
Health officials don’t want to wait until the nation gets stuck behind the pandemic eight ball again, but some experts worry the move was premature.
Dr. Jeremy Faust, an emergency medicine physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital, is skeptical of boosters for the broader population so soon.
“The risks are unknown, and the benefits are unknown. I can’t, as a responsible physician, give someone advice, when I haven’t been able to weigh those two things,” Faust said, cautioning against taking a “shot in the dark.”
Waiting for the data
Pfizer and Moderna have gauged side effects from a third shot tantamount to the primary course — fever, sore arm and fatigue — while the rare risk of more serious side effects, like myocarditis, remains.
Faust points out the clinical trial data and real-world success of the vaccines have been an undeniable “slam dunk” thus far, but third doses are uncharted territory.
“The science on this is unavailable. And that’s not a place where we’ve been before,” Faust said, noting the risk of myocarditis has shown to happen more frequently after the second mRNA dose.
“What’s the third dose going to do?” Faust said. “Is a third dose going to hospitalize more people for myocarditis than we’re actually getting in return for the third dose of vaccine coverage? We literally don’t know.”
https://www.yahoo.com/gma/why-shouldnt-rush-covid-19-151645912.html
JJ and others, yes, I think that more normalcy will return by the spring of 2022, the caveat being that we don’t get worse variants. If we can up the vaccination rate, which apparently has been happening to some degree, and if we can get boosters in the arms of those who need them, we should be able to have some more normalcy next spring. I’ve always used the crude indicator of getting deaths under 100 a day nationwide. If we can do that, we can say the pandemic is for all intents and purposes over. Unfortunately, we’re nowhere near that benchmark. We were getting close back in late June when we briefly went under 300 deaths a day. But now we’re well over 1,000 a day.
Vicki, I have seen Fauci’s comments, but I’m surprised by them. Our data on vaccine’s waning immunity is obsolete for the most part. We should be relying on Israeli and UK data for boosters. Their public health authorities are not only encouraging boosters, they’re demanding them for the vulnerable. I completely agree. I am sure the benefits outweigh the risks. A growing number of fully vaccinated people in Israel and the UK – most are vulnerable, and were vaccinated 8 months ago – are dying from Covid-19, because the vaccine’s immunity has waned considerably.
The comments in the link that I found of interest are from Schaffner (Vanderbilt) and Faust (Brigham). I don’t have the sense they are not saying not to get a booster. They are cautioning that not to get to early. They state that it is too soon to know They are clear that immune compromised folks should be first, but seem to believe we need better data before the next step.
It seems to me to be a more honest discussion than many I’ve heard from politically connected folks.
Adding. Immune compromised folks are the individuals who had the vaccine eight months ago. I was in second wave and have until Dec 1 to hit 8 months
Vicki, thanks for posting the messages from Faust and others.
I’m just not in agreement with the “we need more data” statement from Faust and others. The data is right there, in Israel and the UK. We don’t need to rely on poor or obsolete U.S. data. CDC is a train wreck, I’m sorry to say. It’s like they operate at dial-up speed.
Israel now has 25 to 30 deaths a day, (that’s a lot in a country with 8 million people) and nearly 700 in ICU (also a high number). In Israel, at least 45% of current deaths and 55% of ICU folks are fully vaccinated (Pfizer). In part this reflects the fact that Israel has such a high vaccination rate and they vaccinated earlier than everyone else. But it’s clear that vaccines are losing efficacy. We need boosters. Probably all of us. Yes, there are risks. But there are risks associated with every medicine we ingest and every inoculation, too. The data from hundreds of millions of administered vaccines suggest the risks are minimal, and the benefits outweigh those risks. The longer CDC and others dither, the deeper this Delta wave is going to penetrate, not just in other states, also in states like Massachusetts where a sizable number of people in nursing homes and other elderly are losing vaccine immunity (they got their shots in January). If the caseload was much lower, I wouldn’t worry as much. But the caseload is way, way too high, which indicates transmission is a real possibility for vaccinated folks.
I do worry about our lack of understanding what other countries have done. I have yet to hear anyone in this country mention the Data from Israel that says efficacy is down to low 80 for preventing serious illness or even death
Do other countries have data on any adverse effects of boosters too close to last vaccine. That was the data I thought they were referring to. It didn’t seem to be whether we need boosters but timing in between. I saw a tiny bit if a red flag when we originally said 6 months and then went to 8. I tend to agree we need to make sure the booster is spaced to give the most immunity while not causing any problems.
Do you know what Data we have on best practices for spacing.
My healthcare provider reached out to me this afternoon to set up an appointment for Covid vaccine #3.
My appointment is for Wednesday morning September 1. Wish me luck!
🙂
Vicki, from what I’ve gauged the worst risks from the mRNA vaccines (whether the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or more) are for the 12 – 17 age group. This is where myocarditis is showing up and is a risk worth worrying about. But, almost no-one is saying give boosters to this group. It’s about the >40 age group. And the age cutoff may come down over time a bit. I don’t know the ages of WHW folks, but I’m guessing the >40 criterion means that many of us will be in line for a booster soon.
Israel is about 3-4 weeks ahead of the U.S. in terms of its Delta wave, but its trajectory has been even more explosive than ours (on average). This should concern us. Israel’s vaccination rate is similar to Vermont’s and NH’s. I fear that states that are doing okay right now, as Israel was until some time in July, may not be doing so well soon. And it’ll be because of waning immunity among the vulnerable, which is a large group, not just the immunocompromised. I consider anyone above 65 to be vulnerable, anyone with diabetes to be vulnerable, anyone with kidney disease, etc …
If Israel’s situation was a casedemic – only cases, not translating into hospitalizations or deaths – I’d be much less concerned. But, Israel’s situation (the UK’s, too, though to a lesser degree) is not a casedemic.
Extrapolate the Israeli data on deaths/day and you get well over 1,200 a day in the U.S. Keep in mind that because we have many more unvaccinated folks the number here would be significantly higher. We don’t want to be enduring this kind of pain.
By the way, the U.S. crossed the 100,000 hospitalizations threshold today.
Thank you. The article did mention myocarditis. As you know my youngest and I had an issue with irregular heartbeat a week ish after our second vaccine. I’ll be watching closely.
12,000 more Covid-19 deaths in NY state than previously reported. https://twitter.com/NewsHour/status/1430553556755570689
This will not be a one-off NY thing. I think that many states have done a poor job of reporting, and in some cases there has been manipulation of data (eg, Florida).
C-19 for 8-26 is ready.