Saturday August 28 2021 Forecast (8:59AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 28 – SEPTEMBER 1)

You know we’re approaching the finish line of Meteorological Summer when August no longer lasts the 5-day forecast period in section one of my blog! Well here we are, in the final weekend of August and the last 4 days of Meteorological Summer, and it’s been a wet one. Hot? Not so much, because July was not. Hotter beginning and very warm ending with cool interlude as a more accurate way to describe the June-August period. Although these last 4 days have a bit of both, cooler this weekend and a spike in heat and humidity Monday before we settle things back to seasonable by Tuesday. How do we get there? Well after our recent spell of heat and humidity, we brought a cold front down across the region yesterday with not much fanfare other than a few isolated areas of showers and thunderstorms, but during the night the cooler air really arrived and this morning feels far different, as will a good part of the weekend, with a maritime polar air mass in place. We do pay for this with a lot of cloud cover this weekend, although there will be some periods of sun too, especially today and part of Sunday morning. The good news is that any rainfall will be limited to just a chance of showers later Sunday as a warm front approaches the region. This front will cross Sunday night and re-introduce warm to hot and more humid weather to us for Monday, a day that will also bring with it the chance of showers and thunderstorms behind that warm front and ahead of a cold front. I need a little more time to sort out the details on the shower and storm threat and the potential for any severe weather, but keep in mind that Monday and Monday evening do carry that potential at this time. Tuesday, a cold front will push through the region early, leaving us with a westerly air flow, less humid but seasonably warm weather to end August. Wednesday, the first day of September, our attention will be on the remains of Hurricane Ida (forecast to make landfall as a powerful hurricane on the Gulf Coast, likely Louisiana, later this weekend). The remnant moisture from that system will move through the lower Mississippi Valley then the lower Ohio Valley Monday into Tuesday, then make a run at the Northeast later Wednesday. The question to be answered is how far north the northern limit of the rainfall will get. Our medium range guidance is split on this, but I feel there is at least a decent chance at a moderate rainfall event for at least a portion of the region – something I will watch and fine-tune.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 70-77, coolest eastern coastal areas. Dew point upper to middle 50s. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers mainly south and west of Boston by later in the day. Highs 68-75, coolest eastern coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s to lower 60s. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to SW.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 85-92. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to lower 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 80-87. Dew point falling to upper 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain chances go up as the day goes on. Highs 70-77. Dew point rising to lower 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)

Any Ida remnant moisture linked up with a frontal boundary should exit September 2 with drying and seasonably cooler air for a brief time. High pressure brings dry weather and a warming trend September 3-4 before a disturbance brings a chance of showers September 5 followed by more dry but mild to warm weather September 6. From this you can see the early call on the Labor Day Weekend (September 4-6) to be not all that bad.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)

Unsettled with a chance of showers to start this period, followed by a cooler/dry trend as we get a stronger northwesterly air flow out of Canada with a trough moving through the Northeast.

47 thoughts on “Saturday August 28 2021 Forecast (8:59AM)”

  2. Thank you, TK.

    Spectacular morning. First time I’ve been outside for coffee in a while. It occurred to me that the only time of year I don’t sit out or open windows is summer. Go figure.

  6. Thank you, TK.

    Absolutely gorgeous on the Cape this morning, after yesterday featured temps in the upper 80’s right by the water with humidity and virtually no breeze!

  9. Thanks TK.

    Any way you slice it, Ida will be an extremely dangerous, potentially catastrophic hurricane landfall for the Gulf Coast. There are “glimmers”, most of which TK has mentioned, which could make things not quite as bad as they could be. But it is going to be bad regardless.

    Locally… Ida’s remnants could bring a fairly significant rain/flooding event to the Northeast or mid-Atlantic. It’s a bit early to say what areas will be most impacted. The synoptic pattern is pretty much textbook for an inland heavy rain caused by tropical cyclone remnants, though it at least looks like it will be progressive, in and out in a day or less.

    1. Thank you, WxW.

      I was just watching some coverage. The road I saw going into the areas of impact does not appear to have been closed so traffic can move only out. That was a horrific error made with Katrina.

      The mayor said the city didn’t have enough time to issue mandatory evac orders for folks inside the levy barrier so residents should get ready to hunker down and ride out the storm. I know the levy system is built to a cat 3 level and it has nee gates but my prayers are sure with everyone.

  11. Kudos to the NHC, whose last 2 advisories were based off of satellite estimates for winds and an estimated pressure.

    Well, a new recon plane just took its first run through the center and the max flight level winds were 90-95 knots with a pressure in the low-mid 970 mbs,

  15. According to Mike Waunkum, heat & humidity returns with severe storms late Monday, then 2-4”+ rains from Ida on Thursday.

    Oh what a lovely late summer week ahead. Oh well. Better than being in New Orleans, staring down the barrel of a Cat. 4 hurricane though. Right to the day of Katrina 16 years ago (2005) no less. I hope that city has learned a lot since then and will fair much better. We will see.

    1. Yup, 18z GFS continuing a big rain impact from Ida in the northeast. Whoever ends up in the warm sector also will have to worry about thunderstorms with spin-ups.

  21. mid/high 950 mb

    105 kt flight level winds

    Grand canyon ob in gulf, sustained at 59 mph, gusting to 73 mph

  23. I hope those parishes/towns SW of New Orleans evacuated. Those who didn’t around where the eyewall landfalls have truly put their lives in jeopardy.

  24. Mississippi Canyon Oil Platform

    Wind NNE sustained at 85 mph, gusting to 101 mb

    In the last 20 minutes, the pressure fell 6.4 mb !!!!!!!

      1. just updated again

        sustained at 90 mph, gusting to 116 mph

        20 min pressure drop of 6.4 mb down to 974 mb

  29. Rapid, rapid intensification of Ida.
    Max sustained winds forecast to be 135 knots or just over 155 mph Does that make it a cat 5? Or the strongest cat 4 possible?

    2. It is chilling Vicki.

      JpDave, its going to be close, yet another rapid intensification into landfall. Water temp near the LA coast is running in the upper 80s.

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