Monday August 30 2021 Forecast (7:40AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3)

A warm front is passing through the region this morning and introducing a shot of very warm and muggy air, but a cold front approaching on the quick from the northwest will also trigger the chance of showers and thunderstorms today, especially mid afternoon into evening. I’m not expecting widespread but rather scattered coverage of these showers and storms in one or possibly two waves. Any of the storms can become strong to severe, but this will be a rather isolated occurrence. Activity settles down later this evening and overnight as the front pushes through and introduces a slightly drier air mass for Tuesday, although it will still be on the warm side with a sun/cloud mix for the final day of August. Cooler air will filter in at night as the wind shifts more to the north and eventually to the east. September arrives Wednesday and we’ll be watching the remains of Hurricane Ida, heading in our direction from the southwest. As this event draws closer, it looks like the low pressure area that was once the hurricane, in the form of a post-tropical , weaker but defined low pressure center, will be passing to the south of New England, far enough to keep us from re-entering the tropical air mass on the other side of the front the low will have linked up with, but close enough to spread its rain shield into southeastern New England, with current timing Wednesday night and Thursday. Some guidance moves this out rather quickly Thursday while other guidance allows it to hang around longer into Thursday night too. So the end-timing is still a bit in question. I have slowed it down slightly in comparison to yesterday’s outlook. Regardless, drier air moves in by Friday but there may be just enough instability left in the atmosphere to pop a couple diurnal showers.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible mainly southern NH and central MA early afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible all areas mid afternoon on. Highs 81-88. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, can be strong and gusty near any storms.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms into late evening favoring eastern MA, RI, and eastern CT. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to lower 60s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 80-87. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 70-77. Dew point near 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with rain likely, tapering off late day when clouds may break especially northwest of Boston. Areas of fog through midday. Highs 65-72. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partial clearing. Areas of fog. Any lingering rain ends. Lows 58-65. Dew point lower 60s to upper 50s. Wind N to NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated showers. Highs 71-78. Dew point near 60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)

Labor Day Weekend… High pressure in control to start with dry and pleasant Saturday September 4 with low humidity, then similar Sunday September 5 with a slight increase in humidity. Monday September 6 humid with passing showers and thunderstorms possible as a cold front approaches and passes through the region. Drier, cooler weather expected to arrive for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)

Warmest early and late period, cooler interlude mid period with an air mass from Canada. Showers will be limited, probably the best chance with air mass change late September 9 or September 10.

49 thoughts on “Monday August 30 2021 Forecast (7:40AM)”

      1. Love it, JPD. I have a feeling that the day you are impressed that we will be under a mandatory evac order 😉

        1. Nah, that’s not true. But I have been around a long long time and have seem much. Sorry to say, but it does take much to impress me.

          and SPC marginal risk does not impress. In fact most days the slight risk is meaningless. An Enhance risk gets my attention, but the only time I have seen that here recently, it was a dud, So there you go.

          I was NOT impressed with Bob (in my area), NOT impressed with Gloria. Last Hurricane that impressed my
          was Donna. and Previous to that it was Carol.

          Snow storms have to be doozies to impress me. A 1 foot snow event is like a snow flurry to me.

          Thunderstorms have to be monstrous to impress me.
          Can’t even remember the last one to impress me around here. It may have been years ago with a warm front T-storm with impressive lightning and house shaking thunder where I had to comfort the poor dog who was violently shaking.

          Worcester tornado impressed me as did the Springfield one. Mid West and Plains tornadoes impress and scare the crap out of me.

          Sorry, it’s just the way I roll. As my Anthem song stats,
          I ain’t ever satisified.

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ituFNPXAaE8

  12. Thank you, TK.

    I will be saying “good riddance” to humidity once it finally goes away. While Saturday felt great, yesterday the humidity came back, and today it’s maddeningly high. Drenched in sweat after a morning jog. Really uncomfortable air – breathing part is what gets to me. I’ve kind of had it with this, especially because it’s been with us pretty much as a constant feature much of the summer.

  13. JPD – I lost power with Gloria for 12 hours. While the rain certainly didn’t impress me, the wind most certainly did, obviously. Unlike Vicki, I HATE losing power, even for just a few minutes. Did Irene 2011 impress you? 😉

    Hopefully Ida will impress you with 2-4”+ rainfall. If only she was in February.

      1. 2-4 inches of rain will depress me at this point, not impress me.

        Daughter Lisa just wrote me an email:

        “Just got back from our day trip to Oxford. What a beautiful city. Reminded me of Edinburgh.

        You would love how autumnal it feels here: definitely scarf + fleece weather. Luke and I are currently curled up on the couch with blankets and tea, about to watch Harry Potter (inspired by wandering around Oxford!).”

        Ah yes, autumnal. … scarf and fleece weather. … hot tea … Well, certainly not here.

        1. Nothing. No loss of power. No big deal, other than at my wife’s cousin’s house about 200 feet away from us where they had 7 or 8 trees down. 🙂

  14. I just received an impressive and in-depth response from the individual at NOAA I emailed.

    Does anyone know how to upload a PDF (I will create from the email) so that I can just post a link?? It probably won’t be tonight as I’m working on a couple of other projects. But tomorrow for sure.

  15. Ida remnant rainfall forecast for Boston from 3 major models (12z Monday runs):

    Canadian: About 0.10 inch.
    GFS: About 3 1/2 inches.
    Euro: About 6 inches.

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!
    What wonderful agreement. 😉

      1. Might be the most effective method right now…….

        If I ever come across the dart board I made in college I got to find a way to take a photo and get it here.

  16. Oopsie….

    TWC got busted again for “faking” the live wind drama. If you haven’t seen the video yet, you will.

      1. It’s sad honestly because what a great outlet for information and now you have to listen for the good information in between all the fluff.

        I loved that channel so much when it was created right through the 1990s and even into the very early 2000s. But since then it has evolved into the “MTV of the weather world” as I just said on one of my weather pages to somebody.

  18. With regard to Gloria, I recall hearing on the news at the time about one home just off the VFW Parkway in West Roxbury that went without power for 3 weeks.

    1. Could be. I don’t remember. I don’t see how, but then that is several mile away from me. Our power didn’t even flicker.
      Not even close. 🙂

  19. 18z NAM, not ideal because it’s out there in time still, general 1-3 inch rainfall with locally heavier (closer to 4 on Cape Cod), but pretty fast timing.

  20. CFS model brings a tropical cyclone to New England in 744 hours. Batten down the hatches! 😉

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