Wednesday September 1 2021 Forecast (7:17AM)

245 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)

The now post tropical remains of Ida will present themselves as a mass of tropical moisture riding along and over a frontal boundary with a strengthening area of low pressure later today through early Thursday, the low center tracking near or over Cape Cod. This path and set-up is good for a widespread heavy rainfall event from later today to early Thursday morning, resulting in areas of flooding. Travel will be impacted for a number of hours and even into Thursday after the rain ends as it will take a while for things to dry out. Wind will be only a minor issue as the intensifying system moves by and pulls away, but even some moderate wind gusts can be enough to result in power outages due to wet and already stressed trees on saturated ground and their ability to damage power lines. Drier air will be coming into the region behind the departing system for the remainder of Thursday and into Friday on a northwesterly air flow, and the air will be just unstable enough on Friday for the potential for a few isolated diurnal showers to develop, but most of the region stays rain-free. Looking into the Labor Day Weekend, high pressure brings dry and pleasant weather Saturday, and the next system’s arrival is going to be a little sooner than I was anticipating previously, so look for clouds and a shower chance Sunday morning-midday as a warm front passes through, and just a chance of a shower or thunderstorm in a few locations later Sunday or Sunday night after we’re briefly in a warm wedge of air and a cold front approaches as low pressure passes north of our region.

TODAY: Thickening overcast. Rain arriving southwest to northeast this afternoon. Highs 70-77, coolest along the coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast with areas of fog. Rain, often moderate to heavy. Embedded thunderstorms favoring the South Coast especially Cape Cod. Lows 58-65. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the South Coast.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with areas of fog into mid morning with rain and embedded thunderstorms diminishing from southwest to northeast. Becoming partly sunny by late morning on. Highs 67-74. Wind NE 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coast with higher gusts, but a period of variable wind possible Cape Cod region, shifting to N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated showers. Highs 71-78. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches forming interior lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point middle 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning. Partly sunny in the afternoon with a late day or evening shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 73-80. Wind SE shifting to SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)

Brief visit from high pressure bringing dry weather for Labor Day September 6. Passing disturbances bring shower chances September 7 and again later in the period. Mild September 7, cooler September 8, milder later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)

Cooler early and late period, mid period warm up. Limited rainfall chances.

245 thoughts on “Wednesday September 1 2021 Forecast (7:17AM)”

  1. Thanks TK. Looks like my question hit yesterday’s comments the same time as your new update. Can you take a look at it and let me know. I am a concerned dad.

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I heard Wankum say to watch for a few spin ups and he showed system passing a little to the West of the Boston area.

    Most models show it passing to the East. I wonder what he was looking at??????

    1. Not one forecaster I have discussed this with thinks that low center will pass west of Boston. It will pass east of the Cape Cod Canal.

      My guess is that it’s just a generalization: Tropical remains = tornado risk. But now is not the time for generalizations. It’s time for specifics. There won’t be a tornado risk on the cool side of the frontal boundary that system will be moving along.

      1. He very clearly showed the system passing West of Boston say around Worcester or so . I just dob’t trust Anything he says. And on top of that, I can’t stand his presentation. Compare to Eric and Harvey and you will see.

  5. After reviewing the models, ALL of them have 3 + inches, with a majority having 4+ inches. Sure looks like we are in for it.

  8. Thanks Tk . Question I have a debris pickup in Hanover tonight around 5 do you think I can get it in . The crew will be beck in at midnight tonight to work the storm I’m so excited, NOT !!

  12. Anyone have a guess whether it might be raining in Dover late am? Daughter to school some horses at 11:30 but there is no indoor

    1. Your post prompted me to take a look at the radar.
      I didn’t realize the rain was on our door step.

      Sprinkles could start anytime, then some light rain. The heavier rain, I “think” will hold off until later this PM, I hope. Good luck.

      1. This also confirms NO need to worry about “spin ups”, which is a stupid dumb-ass nomenclature for tornado! A tornado is a tornado. Yes we know about the Fujita scale. Instead of spin ups, say weak EF-0 or EF-1 tornado. Mets should call it what it is.

        Is it done to allay fear? Spin up does not sound as ominous as tornado. I am SICK to death of this crap!!!

  14. If the HRRR amounts verify in that short a time period, we might find out spots in roads that, unknown to the human eye, have some weaknesses below them, especially ones next to small brooks, streams and rivers.

    1. Indeed. NWS mentioned “possible” road washouts.

      .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/…
      Highlights…

      * Potential for rare/high impact type flooding tonight into Thu
      * Widespread 3-5″ rainfall amounts with isolated 6-7″ possible
      * Low risk of a tornado near the south coast overnight

      If the higher end rainfall totals are reached
      especially in vulnerable areas; the potential exists for a
      relatively rare high end flood event in our region. This would
      include the potential for very significant urban and small stream
      Flash Flooding as well as significant River Flooding. Basement
      flooding along with even a few road washouts would be possible. The
      one positive is the progressive nature of the system, which will
      make it difficult for high end isolated amounts to exceed 6 or 7
      inches. That being said, the potential for high end flooding exists
      across much of the region especially near and south of the MA
      Turnpike.

      1. I do NOT want water in the basement. It doesn’t usually happen and when it did, it was Winter with frozen ground.
        But we have had so much rain, I don’t know how much the ground can absorb the water.

        It doesn’t have to get too deep to affect the furnaces and hot water heaters. The guts of those are only about 4 inches above floor level.

        Wouldn’t be so bad during the day where I could continually monitor it. But in the middle of the night!)@(#&(!@&#(@&!
        Gimmie a break!!!

          1. The leak area in our basement is directly between the furnace and hot water heater. Do you usually have water, North?

            1. Not since we put in a new pump and French drain feeding into it but I have a door out of the basement that is down a hill so that concerns me with the rainfall rates. I hope your plug holds!

              My sump pump had been bone dry through all of this when at Xmas it was going off every minute. Not sure if the water table changed near me.

              1. Thank you. Good luck and very interesting re christmas vs now

                I don’t know how French drains work. I’m finding out the uphill side of many of the homes in this neighborhood can pool with water. Many of those are garages. Ours happens to be the basement side. I wondered if a French drain could be along only one side.

  17. From NWS BOston
    will be considering a wind advisory tonight for southern RI
    into southeast MA, as model soundings suggest G35-40 kt possible in the warm sector. Ditto for northeast MA including Boston, north of the surface low NE winds may gusts 35-40 kt early Thu morning. While these speeds are below wind advisory criteria, concerned that saturated ground and fully leaved trees will yield a lower threshold for wind/tree damage. Will chat more about this later.

  18. Thank you, TK.

    Given that I live in a partly submerged apartment (euphemistically known as “garden level”), I’ve bought life vests for me and my cat. She doesn’t like wearing one. But, as I told her (Mia), she’s going to have to if things get bad with the remnants of Ida.

        1. Nice. Thank you.

          Only problem is, I am NOT about to enter ANY store ANYwhere. Not with delta surging out there.

          I may consider ordering some for the future.

          But I have lived in this house for 45 years and have never had enough water to cause a problem with a water heater or furnace.

          Watch tonight be a first.

          1. We had not either although house is just 10 yrs old. Had we not been in the basement for the tornado warning with Fred, it could have been days and heaven knows how much water it was discovered

            1. Any and every essential worker deserves thanks from everyone.

              Many who use curb side at Home Depot type facilities are also essential workers. That would include both of my sons In law. It is why I know Home Depot has curbside. My son is also an essential worker. Any place that offers curbside receives enormous tips from me and from my family.

              1. Many people on this blog are. I’ve never known anyone to be anything but grateful for everything they do. In many cases, it is curbside service that has kept businesses going through this

            3. Our shopper is receiving hazard pay in the form of a most generous tip that the shopper gets from no one else.

              I choose not to go into stores.

              1. Ours also. Also restaurants who have curbside. I helped a gentleman in Sutton with dollars to run raffles for restaurant gift cards. There are too many to count who understand how much is owed to all essential workers.

                Every single worker at Whittier Fatm in Sutton is nothing short of a hero in my view. They that had curbside working efficiently within weeks of the March 2020 shutdown. I’d sit in line with tears watching as the family, looking absolutely exhausted, put groceries in trucks.

                They are also friends. You know what they told me…..that they owe us because we helped their family business survive. That is the kind of people they are. They are far from alone.

            4. I’m an essential worker myself, not as a weather forecaster, which I do separately of a Mon-Fri job at an assisted living / memory care facility.

              While some such facilities were hit really hard especially during the early part of the pandemic, we took our hits but managed to come through it with very very few casualties in comparison to many less fortunate places.

              While most of my work does not involve direct contact with the residents, at this current time I am serving breakfast to about 14 memory care residents 5 mornings a week for about 45 minutes. It’s definitely not my area of expertise, but in a place that has had a lot of worker turnover and short staffing the last year+, I’m happy to be able to help them.

              It kind of reminds me of being with my father, as he had dementia in the last 4 years of his life, so sometimes it can be a bit hard, but it gives me such a perspective a lot of people don’t get.

              There’s a woman in there (in her 70s who you would swear was in her 60s) who walks around spryly and talks with no trouble, but every day we have the same conversation because she doesn’t remember the one we had the day before. And you know what? That’s ok. Every day it’s brand new to her, and makes her smile. And that’s all the matters…

              2. Bless you, TK. My mother was in memory care for several years, and the folks who served her meals (and actually sat and fed her) for her last year absolutely made her day — and likely extended her life.

                1. I remember watching a young man who cared for my dad. When I thanked him, he told me he thinks of each person as his grandparent.

                  Seeing TKs love for his mom…..it is certain these folks feel loved

        2. Thank you. I sent this to daughter and SIL. Only problem could be one of my grands is hyper sensitive to noise. I’m not sure this would bother him much though as it is two floors down from bedrooms.

          Home Depot has curbside but my son in law is working a full day.

        3. Good idea . We have sensors in all of the hospital mechanical rooms . Any hint of water & an alarm will be sent to operations base .

    1. Here is a sounding for Northern Bourn/Southern Plymouth just North of the canal

      https://ibb.co/bHWcNXt

      That is pretty serious stuff. But I must say that these soundings
      on Pivotal Weather are often way over done on the tornado threat.

  22. Low tornado risk for the coastal areas but not zero. I think WxWatcher’s office in Mount Holly NJ is going to be issuing several tornado warnings today.

    1. Yes, quite likely. Also SPC should be issuing a tornado watch this PM. I would thinks so, anyway. We shall see.

  28. JpDave in the mesoscale discussion it was mentioning the severe threat could get to Long Island so I agree with you more watches will be coming further north. Will the warm front get into coastal areas of SNE???

    1. remember our discussion earlier

      * Primary threats include…
      A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
      Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
      to 75 mph possible

  33. I think thee is still a possibility that a narrow watch box gets extended to include LI and south coasts of ct, ri and ma. time will tell

  35. Im confused. Earlier The discussion re Wankum read to me as if there won’t be spin ups or tornadoes. But are we now seeing a potential for those. My guess is I’m misunderstanding the wording but want to be sure

  36. Vicki this tweet from Ryan Hanrahan might clear this up for you

    The @NWSPC has also increased the tornado threat which is conditional on the exact placement of the low/warm front.

    1. Thanks, JJ. I’m reading that as we don’t know yet where the placement will be. I will add that I detest a threat of tornadoes overnight.

  37. I am thinking if there were to be a tornado coastal CT RI Cape and Islands would be the areas it could happen.

  38. I think if you want an early idea if any areas in southern New England has to worry about spin-ups, watch the wind direction, dew-points and maybe temp.

    Any locations that you see the wind veering around to SE or even S and whose dewpoint jumps to 70F or higher are probably at a non-zero risk.

    Any locations that you see the wind east or northeast and dewpoints in the low-mid 60s, no spin-ups likely.

  39. mid-upper 70 dewpoints in southern NJ and Maryland, etc.

    The amount of warmth and humidity poised to run up and over our relatively cool, stable dome of air is somewhat scary.

    Rain rates should be outrageous tonight.

  42. TK – I take it you have kept your rain amounts intact. It seems like the hype machine is revving up or am I missing something. It will certainly rain hard but maybe don’t call the National Guard yet. Is this wishful thinking?

    1. Absolutely agree !

      I also think this gives credence to that 4-5-6 inch strip falling a little further south then even the 12z GFS and particularly 12z Euro show it.

      I just think those torrential rainfall rates have to be closer to the tropical humidity. I can’t see an upper 50s dewpoint yielding those kind of rain totals. But just north of the 70s dewpoints, where the 60s dewpoints are, watch out.

      1. Ahhhh, just looked at 12z HRRR totals, boston to Plymouth for the big amounts, if my old eyes are correct. That makes more sense to me.

  45. Another tweet from Ryan Hanrahan
    One cause for concern with these kind of tropical systems is the very high freezing level (nearly 15kft in this case). A very deep “warm cloud” produces rain drops very efficiently through a process known as collision-coalescence and can enhance rainfall rates.

  47. This is totally unrelated to weather, but I just wanted to mention that I received my Pfizer booster #3 shot today. All I can do now is see how the next 24 hours goes.

  49. I like the trends you are discussing with heavier rain headed bit more south. Color me happy if my town ends up with rain total that starts with a 3.

  51. Quick peak at the latest SREF coastal areas of CT RI Cape and Islands in what I call an elevated tornado risk and looking at the 18z HRRR it seems to be in agreement with the SREF.

  54. JJ that possible tornado damage in Annapolis is right off highway 301 not far from the Naval Academy and more worrisome, not far from the Bay Bridge. We used to stop in Kent Narrows on the other side of the bridge every year on our way home dromedary Charleston. The bridge was always dicey even of just a bit windy

    1. Vicki that storm looked nasty on radar and were seeing the pictures confirm what looks like tornado damage.

  56. Funny, I read the 2nd paragraph of the NWS discussion where they talk about 2 possible max rainfall areas and …….

    all I could think of was the snowstorm last year, where all the models had a second max incredible snow projection in an area where there was a ton of dry air.

    The snowfall in this area verified and even exceeded the crazy projected totals.

    So, maybe a second max area of rainfall does make it further north into the area with dewpoints in the upper 50s.

    1. so does 18z 3km NAM.

      When I place my cursor almost around Boston and Marshfield, the 10m wind is coming up as 42 knots early tomorrow morning.

  58. I’m on a weather page where people are writing this thing off based on current radar.

    Let me just say that I’m glad they are not preparing forecasts for actual media (radio / TV).

    “I’ll get less than an inch here in RI.” Um, no you won’t.

  71. What a rapid development and expansion of very heavy convective showers south of eastern Long Island and Rhode Island. Moving due north. Absolute craziness begins soon.

  72. From Ryan Hanrahan
    Tornado warning for Harlem, Washington Heights, The Bronx, and southern Westchester.

    2. Saw mike who is not to be named report that also.

      Tornado warning for Manhattan reported by others. Incredible hourly rain amounts down that way

  75. This is the second time in this summer the NWS Mount Holly NJ office had a issued a tornado emergency due to a destructive tornado in progress. The other the last Thursday of July.

    1. That’s almost three times what I have in Back Bay. I’m at 0.64, and it’s raining lightly to moderately. From what I’m reading the very heavy stuff is finding its way into RI now. We’ll see if Boston gets into prolonged, very heavy rain. There appears to be a fairly sharp drop-off to our north in terms of forecast amounts, say, by the NH/MA border. Wonder if that drop-off will shift a bit southward.

  79. Thank you all again! 🙂

    Another issue I have is my basement, keeping any deep water away from my oil burner and gas tank. No way I can keep water from the basement entirely. I will be grateful if both still work in the morning.

  90. Still only raining lightly to moderately in Boston. I am up to 0.78.

    We’ll see if and when this picks up in intensity. It should soon.

    The NYC rain looks absolutely frightening. That’s a deluge.

  93. I’m the red band I am currently in, I am getting 1.67/ hr underneath it. Up to .90 for the day so far in North Attleboro.

  94. Torrential rain here in Coventry CT and the heaviest stuff about to move in. Thundering now as well. Up to 2.85” in the rain gauge so far today (after receiving nearly two FEET since July 1)

  96. Mark I am having thunder here as well. First time ever in CT flash flood emergencies were issued. They are up for Fairfield and New Haven counties

  98. Unusual to have the remnants of a hurricane cause such widespread destruction more than 1,000 miles from landfall.

    Now pouring in Boston.

  105. Looks like a tropical storm out there right now. Torrential wind blown rain and about to get into some real heavy stuff. Up to 3.05”. Should easily eclipse 5”.

  107. I would no be surprised if that is in the Norwalk area. This part of I-95 tends to flood and I would be surprised if it did not tonight.

  111. Stay off roads !! All kinds of accidents coming in including myself I hydroplaned into another truck & we both almost flipped . I’m fine , he’s fine & I have very minor damage . Stay home !!! I saw 10 car accident as well !!!

  112. 4.8” of rain here now, it has been a complete deluge the past 90 minutes. Received about 1.3” of that in the last hour.

  114. Power is out here. Fortunately I have two back-ups to the sump. Relentless rain since about 2:30!

  116. Glad you’re okay, SSK! Pouring again and windy here in Taunton. Power is still out. Back-up pumps are working!

  117. In the day after tomorrow, just before the goofy NYC surge tsunami, there is a scene where its pouring in NYC and the water is shin deep in the City.

    I always thought that was unrealistic too, but based on some video clips from NYC and looking at obs showing 3+ inches of rain in 1 hr, I´d have to say nature may have achieved the unrealistic.

  118. Slept for a bit. 5.60 South Sutton.

    Captain, also hope the sump pump keeps going. I was wondering about schools also. Be safe all.

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