Thursday September 2 2021 Forecast (7:17AM)

90 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)

The very heavy rainfall event that was made up of the remains of Ida combined with a frontal boundary is coming to an end and we’ll be left with a gusty breeze as we start to dry out this morning behind departing low pressure. Winds will diminish this afternoon as high pressure builds toward New England from southern Canada but we will still be in the northeasterly air flow through Friday until the high builds right over the region for the start of the Labor Day Weekend with dry, pleasant weather. The high shifts offshore by Saturday night and low pressure passing north of the region will bring a quick warm front / cold front combo through the region Sunday, which will have more clouds and the risk of showers, but I expect these to be limited. Fair weather returns behind this system for Monday to finish off the Labor Day Weekend.

TODAY: Showers/downpours lingering over Cape Cod until mid morning. Any lighter shower end elsewhere. Clouds break for sun. Highs 67-74. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing later in the day.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of an isolated afternoon shower. Highs 71-78. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches forming interior lower elevations. Lows 51-58. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning. Partly sunny in the afternoon with a late day or evening shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 73-80. Wind SE shifting to SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower possible. Lows 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)

Current timing suggest shower threats exist about September 8 and 10, otherwise mostly dry weather with some up and down temperatures from a generally zonal flow weather pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)

Same basic pattern – some up and down temperatures with limited shower chances.

90 thoughts on “Thursday September 2 2021 Forecast (7:17AM)”

  3. Flash flood warning just issued.

    Flash Flood Warning
    for Worcester County

    Issued by National Weather Service
    Boston, MA
    7:25 AM EDT Thu, Sep 2, 2021

    The National Weather Service in Norton has issued a

    * Flash Flood Warning for… Hartford County in northern Connecticut… Tolland County in northern Connecticut… Windham County in northern Connecticut… Southern Worcester County in central Massachusetts… Hampden County in western Massachusetts… Southwestern Hampshire County in western Massachusetts…

    * Until 315 PM EDT Thursday.

    * At 725 AM EDT, gauge reports indicated heavy rain falling across the warned area. Between 3 and 7 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

    HAZARD…Life threatening flash flooding. Heavy rain producing flash flooding.

    SOURCE…River and rain gauges reported.

    IMPACT…Life threatening flash flooding of streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. Many rivers and streams are still rising, and considerable poor drainage flooding remains.

    * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include… Worcester, Springfield, Hartford, New Britain, West Hartford, Bristol, Manchester, Chicopee, East Hartford, Enfield, Southington, Westfield, Holyoke, Shrewsbury, Glastonbury, Newington, Vernon, Windsor, Agawam and West Springfield.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    Turn around, don’t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.

    Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

  5. Thanks TK.

    More dry spots than wet ones in my basement. No water anywhere near the oil burner and just a dab of water near the hot water tank. It’s the best I’ve ever seen it, all things considered.

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Just read all the posts I missed from last evening. Some great pists.

    TK it is wonderful the work you are doing at the memory center!

    SSK, sorry about yiu accident. So happy you are OK

    How did basements fare?
    I had a little bit of water near the cellar door. That was it. Not even enough for me to wet vac it up. Hope all fared as well or better.

    Not much wind to speak of here.

    Saw the Cape and Plymouth tornado warnings. Any confirmations?

    NJ and MD looked like mid west ground Zero.

    Would love to hear from WxWatcher when the dust settles. Must have been a wild day for him and his vo-workers.

  9. Thanks TK.

    5.84” the total here in Coventry CT setting us up for another well above normal precip month for September. This coming off 8.13” in August and 15.5” in July. That’s nearly 29.5” of rainfall since July 1!! I cannot remember a wetter period in my life. Thankfully I live up on a hill.

    Of note, about 18” of that rain came from tropical systems or their remnants….Elsa 5”, Fred 3”, Henri 4”, and Ida 6” (I am rounding). And we are still not even close to done with hurricane season.

  11. Just checked basement. Nothing was showing on the camera but wanted to see if there was water in other areas. SILs hydraulic cement patch inside and out held. Thank God.

    1. That’s great! Just checked mine too and all is good. Not a drop in the sump pump hole. Something definitely changed with the water table between Xmas and this summer. It’s been dry since March!

  13. Thank you, TK.

    Maybe my rain gauge is broken. It’s only measured 3.62. Could that be correct? In any case, I’m relieved that there was no damage to the basement, boiler room, courtyard, or trash area. Everything held up.

    I am very sorry to hear about SSK’s accident. Glad to know he’s okay.

    The reports from Mark, Vicki, JJ, Tom, and others were really startling. As I mentioned last night, to have the remnants of a storm that made landfall >1,000 miles away do this much damage is quite something. I’m reading that at least 8 people lost their lives in NY and NJ. The damage there and also in CT is very extensive.

    2. Did any debris get in there because previous to this event, you
      rain gauge appeared to be spot on to me.

      I would start there and if nothing found, check the calibration.

      IF I added correctly, Logan came in with 4.23, which sounds low to me. Sometimes when I add the 6 hourly totals, it never adds up. Why? who knows with Logan.

      Your 3.62 sounds low to me, but who knows.

  19. Happy to find no water in basement and only a bit in sump pump hole. Like others, I expected to find worse. Sun seems to be on the verge of coming out.

  24. What number tropical system is this for us in some form or feature ?

    Is it 4 …. Elsa, Fred, Henri and Ida …. am I missing any ?

    1. I think that list is complete.

      At least so far it looks like Larry will stay well off shore, but
      one never knows.

  26. Some Central Park info, some of it courtesy of Joe D’Aleo:

    Central Park has 152 years worth of weather records. With 7.19″ yesterday, this is now the 18th wettest September on record, with 19 days to go.

    The 3.15″ between 8:51pm and 9:51pm there is their single greatest 1-hour total on record.

    Since July 1, Central Park has received 28.60″ of rain. This is the 2nd wettest July-September on record there, trailing only the 31.37″ they had in 2011.

    Central Park received 11.09″ in July and 10.32″ in August. This is only the 2nd time in their 152-year history that they had 10 or more inches of rain in back-to-back months. The other time was March-April, 1983. They have never had 3 consecutive months with 10″+.

    For the year-to-date, this is 2nd wettest year on record in Central Park. The 49.06″ through midnight trails only the 50.28″ from 2011.

    1. That should say 29 days to go for the 1st blurb. Still waking up after a long 1st day back at work after vacation and an interesting drive home at 3am.

      3.93″ was my total here at the StormHQ World Headquarters Compound.

  27. We were at 5.07″ in the west end of Taunton when I left for work at 6:15. I know it rained two more hours after that!

    Power came back on as I was leaving. I believe my sump is working.

    Route 24 was closed down in both directions in Fall River this morning!

    How are you feeling, SSK and Philip?

  28. Thanks SAK for the info!

    Thanks to all for the discussion and observations during and after the event.

    Glad you are okay SSK!

    Philip hope you are feeling well.

    As usual there was no perfect model for cast but the short range guidance for the most part did perform very well for that event. It’s not a case that we get to test out very often regarding the models. But a lot of them had max amounts a little over 6 inches, and the consistency of that was why I opted to go for a two to six inch broad swath and then try to pinpoint the worst. They were obviously a few heavier than six and a few lighter than two, but those were the exceptions…

    We will see what NWS has to say about any wind damage investigations.

    1. Thanks for asking TK! I am feeling fine so far. I didn’t even wake up to any arm stiffness, which I did last time but even that not all that much.

      Will still monitor though. Who knows what tomorrow may bring?

  32. A few passing comments I’ve heard or seen (not on this blog) today trashing weather forecasters. For what? This was a very well forecast system. The major impact was well forecast. And then when it happens there are people who act like it was a surprise and blame us? HAHAHAHAHA.

    Clueless.

    1. I really have no tolerance for criticizing Mets. That should come as absolutely no surprise to anyone here 😉

      It really is a no brainer. If you have an issue, go to the source.

      1. Forecasts ’round the media & NWS were done quite well on this. Even that set of maps that Dr. S posted yesterday showed a nice consistent forecast between everybody which verified rather nicely given the potential variability.

        1. They sure were well done. I think the vast majority of the time, forecasts are well done. If there is an error, well…..we all make them.

  34. Thank you, SAK. You always provide interesting information. Glad your drive at 3am was a safe one.

    Don’t like it that folks trash weather forecasters. When I tune in to forecasts around the dial I see dedicated teams of men and women doing their jobs. Do they make mistakes? Yes. We all do. Are they sometimes under pressure from management to hype or at least dramatize? Yes. This is not their fault. I generally like the forecasters in the Boston media market. I find them knowledgeable, but also personable. Do I criticize sometimes? Yes. But, never in a personal way.

  35. Yankees Radio Broadcaster John Sterling had to be rescued from his car driving home last night with the flooding rains.

    Tweet from Talkin Yanks
    Yankees Spanish radio broadcaster Rickie Ricardo got a call from Suzyn Waldman after leaving yesterday’s game. John Sterling was stuck in his car filled with water
    Ricardo turned around, rescued John from his car and got him home with guidance from police

  36. Don’t write off Larry as a fish storm just yet. The GFS Ensemble shows a threat to eastern Newfoundland. The Canadian Ensemble shows a threat to Newfoundland and some members threaten Nova Scotia. The Euro Ensemble not only shows a more significant threat to Newfoundland, but several members show a threat to Nova Scotia and a couple of members are much farther west, passing very close to New England.

    Now, obviously, the odds are very low, and Larry likely will stay out to sea, but the trend in the forecasts has been farther west, so don’t just ignore it and write it off just yet.

  38. I appreciate all of the kind words regarding my incident last night , thank you . I hope the insurance will go 50/ 50

  40. Incredible sinkhole from the storm on the 13th hole at the TPC River Highlands golf course in Cromwell. Washed a portion of the fairway and golf cart path away into the Ct River and left railroad tracks and a gas pipe suspended in mid air!

    https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/idas-rains-cause-sinkhole-at-tpc-at-river-highlands/2574403/#:~:text=Heavy%20rains%20from%20Ida%20created%20a%20large%20sinkhole,railroad%20tracks%20that%20run%20alongside%20the%2013th%20fairway.

    1. https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=9kKo4DyN&id=D36EBB076894D20232BB8C672D8B74B87EDF5F20&thid=OIF.XNk6mzztOyX2rQsrr6n3Bg&mediaurl=https://s.hdnux.com/photos/01/21/56/01/21422167/3/1200×0.jpg&cdnurl=https://th.bing.com/th/id/R.f642a8e03c8d083e59d68dfc5f5edfe0?rik=&pid=ImgRaw&r=0&exph=900&expw=1200&q=tpc+river+highlands+sinkhole&simid=300370673791&form=IRPRST&ck=5CD93A9B3CED3B25F6AD0B2BAFA9F706&selectedindex=0&adlt=demote&shtp=GetUrl&shid=4a64bbe2-ee2f-4d90-94dd-29761aea23c4&shtk=SWRhIGNhdXNlcyBnaWFudCBzaW5raG9sZSBhdCBDcm9td2VsbCBnb2xmIGNvdXJzZQ%3D%3D&shdk=Rm91bmQgb24gQmluZyBmcm9tIHd3dy5taWRkbGV0b3ducHJlc3MuY29t&shhk=0us8sT2o3w%2BNGO04Y6qXrmVerxhJ4KV73r7Nvmn5i4g%3D&shth=OIF.XNk6mzztOyX2rQsrr6n3Bg

  41. 5.07 at our Taunton home on the west side.
    4.20 at NWS-Norton.

    Taunton daily rainfall records:

    6.50, August 26, 1924
    6.35, June 12, 1931
    6.17, August 19, 1955

    5.12, June 13, 1998 (Most rainfall recorded at KBOX)

  42. Glad the Yankee announcer Sterling was rescued. Thank you for sharing, JJ.

    I just read the death toll has risen to 41 from yesterday and last night’s storms. Will likely increase further.

    Let’s hope Larry stays away from New England.

    1. Yes I think that was the same tornado you are referring to but there were several yesterday and a lot of videos floating around on twitter…its heard to keep them all straight. Just a wild day yesterday ,

  49. Appreciate everyone’s concern for us here! I’ll have more in time, but yes, it is quite devastating as you can tell, especially the flooding. Having been here awhile now, I’ve gotten pretty familiar with the area. There are/were parts of Philadelphia underwater that I’ve been to a number of times. It’s crazy to see it like it is.

    I fear the death toll will climb higher, and the costs will likely range in the tens of billions.

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