Ultimately speaking people can only guess as to how things will go. The reality is you can make the most informed learned guess and still be wrong. Washing hands, wearing a mask and getting a booster when possible is always going to be the best defense.
I do think our numbers will rise – we are heading to cold and flu season, we didn’t get hit as hard with the delta varient as other places, New England is a popular tourist destination as leaves turn, etc. – some places are smart about it like Salem putting a mask mandate back in place for their busy season. So we do have some mitigation so it ought not be as bad as last year. But everything in an unprecedented pandemic is logical guesswork.
I echo dr S
Only reason I recognize his name is that He said a month or so ago that we’d peak in two weeks. That was of course wrong and raised eyebrows then
I can no longer keep up with all these current and upcoming variants.
Alpha, Delta, Iota, Kappa, Lambda, Mu, Eta.
How many of these $&@#% variants will we have to go through?
Still waiting for the “Beta” and the “Gamma”. Or has that arrived already?
Forgive me for borrowing some of JPD’s “language”. 😉
Joshua, are all these different “variants” due to so many unvaccinated?
Dr. Gottlieb is credible. For some reason he underestimated Delta back in May and June, saying it would only impact a “few hot spots.” He’s come to his senses.
What he’s saying about the Northeast is probably true. Besides New York and New Jersey we’ve escaped a major wave, and even in those states it was fairly muted. Based on what is happening and has happened in the UK (with very similar vaccinated rates to the Northeast), Gottlieb is projecting the Northeast (and parts of the Midwest) is due for an enhanced continuation of the current wave.
Several factors that favor an enhanced continuation of the current wave in Massachusetts:
– Schools back in session. This will increase cases. The biggest worry with more cases is often less the people it infects first, but the people who get infected by those people. So, pupils in school (as well as staff) may bring it home, transmit while visiting Grandma or at family gatherings.
– Packed indoor and outdoor stadiums, gymnasiums will be a problem this fall and winter. Whether school sports or professional, with much less mitigation in place, these gatherings will lead to enhanced spread.
– Waning immunity in vulnerable people in nursing homes, assisted living, and other places.
– Breakthrough cases generally will accelerate. Again, the issue will not be so much with folks who get breakthrough cases, it’s who they may transmit it to.
– Cooler weather, less ventilation, much more indoor (cafes, restaurants, clubs) activity with much less mitigation than a year ago.
This is long but I found very interesting. I like Dr Wen. A while ago, I posted here that she was one of the first health officials I heard saying we have to stop giving mixed messages. I also like Dr Faust.
Below is pretty much the verbatim discussion. Apologize for typos. I typed as they spoke on my iPad which isn’t as easy as a PC
Dr Jeremy Faust Mgh/Brigham and Harvard Medical…
Two highly respected FDA officials resigned because they felt for first time science was not leading. One of the only things trump got right was to allow science to lead in vaccines. Now we are rushing when we didn’t at the start, even with a huge crisis. We waited for safety regulators then. Now we are rushing when the crisis is not among vaccinated but is among unvaccinated.
The safety measures in Israel are not Adequate at this time. They have not been properly described, even by Dr Fauci. The American people need to know what it means.
Dr Leana Wen….. the White House did the right thing to say if you are vaccinated you are protected but with delta variant the protection is declining. Data shows that a third dose reduces protection by ten times. She thinks FDA and CDC could say that, even if not approved at this time, they allow people to have a third dose. It is a patients choice.
Dr Faust……people cannot make an informed decision if they do not have the data. At the moment data in Israel is only on data for people over 60. That data shows a third does does boost immunity but risk of hospitalization or severe illness is the same. The question is how long does the protection in 60+ last.
If months and years…then approve them. If less or if it doesn’t protect younger people, who have a much higher rate of adverse effects, that is important. If we roll it out to them without data, they will be shooting ourselves in the foot if there is a subgroup of younger males, especially, who have a chance of negative affects…..especially if the third dose doesn’t help them…but hurts them.
Dr Faust …Crucial question is …how long does it last for 60+ group
Dr wen…. agrees there may be a risk benefit for different groups of people. People who are Immune compromised should think about third vaccine which Dr Faust agrees with.
Both agreed that more important is to get unvaccinated vaccinated than run up the score and have third booster
This is wrong.
“ Data shows that a third dose reduces protection by ten times.” It INCREASES not reduces
I was going to point that out. Thank you.
Whew! Thanks Vicki. 🙂
I’m surprised there isn’t more than that. I saw another but it is pretty easily figured out. Not easy trying to keep up with talking.
The conversation fascinated me. I don’t agree with Dr Wen that we should not wait for the data and it should be a choice . Dr Faust was right. They’d shoot themselves in the foot. We bungled the vaccines with mixed messages but at least the science was right because we waited for it. Even with mixed messages we created mistrust. I can’t imagine the outcry if data shows a booster/third shot jeopardizes one group of folks….or even if it is discovered that it only adds a month of higher efficacy.
If I got my booster prematurely, then there’s not much I can do about it obviously. I figure as long as I feel the same as before then it’s ok with me. It’s been 72 hours and still feel fine. 🙂
My healthcare provider reached out to me via email to get the booster in the first place. If it hadn’t been formerly approved by the CDC then they should have waited. It will probably be approved eventually anyway like everything else has.
I think you said you went to Brigham. They are not offering boosters/third vaccines to anyone other than those at high risks I would have confidence they had good reason to give you yours now.
Faust and Wen agreed that high risk should have third vac now.
Yes, it’s the BWH. Thanks again Vicki. I have no regrets getting the booster early. Still too many mixed messages as you said.
Fenway Park now has a mask mandate.l regardless of vaccination status. It will be interesting how long into the NFL season that Gillette initiates one as well.
Good.
I am concerned about what happens soon due to schools opening.
The state isn’t. They are not reporting covid in schools this year. CDC not reporting breakthroughs. State not reporting covid in schools. Curious isn’t it?
I know there is one family in Sutton who has a child severely immune compromised who has been told another child has been in close contact with an individual with covid.
If children are masked, they are not quarantined. And then there is the test to stay. That worked very well for Abbott who tested daily and yet exposed a group of seniors
My concern is that a lot of school kids under 12 could get sick with Covid between now and December. Am I correct that a vaccine wouldn’t be ready to be approved until early 2022 at the earliest?
Even if approved, I’m afraid there will be a lot of legitimate hesitancy.
I agree.
JPD. I saw these tweets by Eric topol re moderna and pfeizer antibodies. I remembered you had asked for data. You, I am sure, will understand it a whole lot better than I.
Thank you. Could only read some due to the annoying sign up pop-ip that block most of it if I enlarge to read it.
I do not have a twitter account. Too easy for wackos to follow you on twitter.
Darn. Let me take screen shots
I took zoomed out screen shots then zoomed in. I think I got them in order. Good luck
Photo 4 and 5 I think need to be reversed but I suspect clear enough to follow
Good stuff. thank you. Now happy the Mrs. and I got the Moderna. At the time, we thought Pfizer was the better vaccine..
Awesome
I just took what I could get and was lucky it was moderna. My girls and spouses all had pfeizer but son and wife had JJ. I saw a report recently that JJ seems to be holding its efficacy better. I may be wrong in that.
3 Miami-Dade County Public Schools teachers and another 12 staff members — bus drivers, security monitors, cafeteria workers, custodians, etc. — have died from Covid-19 in the last 10 days.
No words. Just tears
Me, too. And I get so angry when people say, “oh, the vast majority weren’t vaccininated” … or, “most had underlying health conditions.” I’m so sick of hearing that. It’s almost as if people are saying “well, they had it coming.” One would think that Covid would have made us all have more empathy and less of a weirdly 19th century Darwinian view of mankind. Yes, we wish more people would have gotten vaccinated. And yes, having underlying health conditions predisposes us to more severe disease from Covid and many other diseases. But, many of the underlying health conditions mentioned for some who passed away are very common in many of us: chronic hypertension and diabetes. Further, and most importantly, it’s really awful that we’re losing so many people every damn day: Fathers, mothers, uncles, aunts, sons, daughters. As a nation, we’re reverting to life expectancy numbers last seen in the 1970s and 80s and very few seem to care. That’s really bad. I saw this with HIV in the 1980s and early 90s, and it startled me every time I’d come back to the U.S. I literally heard people tell me back then, “well, they’re gay and promiscuous,” to which I’d respond, “well, they’re humans, and you do know that HIV kills heterosexuals, too.” The response I’d get was just as heartless: “Yeah, but they’re drug users and prostitutes.”
Good lord, there’s something off about America. Although it’s nominally the most Christian wealthy, industrialized country – in terms of percentages attending church – it’s sometimes the least Christian in terms of actual behavior. The weak, the vulnerable, the sick, the marginalized, the outcasts, they were Jesus Christ’s children, if you will. Somehow that’s been lost in some of the American versions of Christianity.
You sure brought back a memory of Mac when he would return to this country when aids was so prevalent and the cavalier attitude.
I am repeating but, at a recent board of health meeting, a man stood to object to masks in schools. He, like many others, like to use the “it is only a small percentage of children who will be affected or who are will die.” The board chair just looked at him for a few moments and said quietly but in a tone that should have given him pause….
“One child is one child too many.”
And he just kept on which is asinine comments.
I don’t know what we have become but it is truly beyond what I ever dreamed possible
I now of six unvaccinated folks who have been given vaccine cards from medical folks and two who are looking for someone to give them one.
Ya know that end of life that we didn’t think was possible …..in a decent world, I would never have thought it was possible. We are truly our own worst enemy
If you know of people with falsified vaccine cards – report em so the law can get to the bottom of who is giving them out.
Sadly, I don’t know them or I would. It was a first thought I had. I just know of them. But I was going to try and figure out who they got them from.
Tom Brady admitted he got covid soon after the boat parade this year.
C-19 for 9-5 is ready.
Comments are closed.
Your no-hype southeastern New England weather blog!
Is this dr credible?
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/03/covid-cases-dr-scott-gottlieb-says-northeast-has-yet-to-see-true-delta-wave.html
He has been correct about some things but incorrect about others like thinking there would be no true “fourth wave” back in april. He was wrong. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/04/04/gottlieb-predicts-no-true-fourth-wave-for-us-heres-what-other-experts-are-saying/ (This is from early april.)
Ultimately speaking people can only guess as to how things will go. The reality is you can make the most informed learned guess and still be wrong. Washing hands, wearing a mask and getting a booster when possible is always going to be the best defense.
I do think our numbers will rise – we are heading to cold and flu season, we didn’t get hit as hard with the delta varient as other places, New England is a popular tourist destination as leaves turn, etc. – some places are smart about it like Salem putting a mask mandate back in place for their busy season. So we do have some mitigation so it ought not be as bad as last year. But everything in an unprecedented pandemic is logical guesswork.
I echo dr S
Only reason I recognize his name is that He said a month or so ago that we’d peak in two weeks. That was of course wrong and raised eyebrows then
I can no longer keep up with all these current and upcoming variants.
Alpha, Delta, Iota, Kappa, Lambda, Mu, Eta.
How many of these $&@#% variants will we have to go through?
Still waiting for the “Beta” and the “Gamma”. Or has that arrived already?
Forgive me for borrowing some of JPD’s “language”. 😉
Joshua, are all these different “variants” due to so many unvaccinated?
Dr. Gottlieb is credible. For some reason he underestimated Delta back in May and June, saying it would only impact a “few hot spots.” He’s come to his senses.
What he’s saying about the Northeast is probably true. Besides New York and New Jersey we’ve escaped a major wave, and even in those states it was fairly muted. Based on what is happening and has happened in the UK (with very similar vaccinated rates to the Northeast), Gottlieb is projecting the Northeast (and parts of the Midwest) is due for an enhanced continuation of the current wave.
Several factors that favor an enhanced continuation of the current wave in Massachusetts:
– Schools back in session. This will increase cases. The biggest worry with more cases is often less the people it infects first, but the people who get infected by those people. So, pupils in school (as well as staff) may bring it home, transmit while visiting Grandma or at family gatherings.
– Packed indoor and outdoor stadiums, gymnasiums will be a problem this fall and winter. Whether school sports or professional, with much less mitigation in place, these gatherings will lead to enhanced spread.
– Waning immunity in vulnerable people in nursing homes, assisted living, and other places.
– Breakthrough cases generally will accelerate. Again, the issue will not be so much with folks who get breakthrough cases, it’s who they may transmit it to.
– Cooler weather, less ventilation, much more indoor (cafes, restaurants, clubs) activity with much less mitigation than a year ago.
This is long but I found very interesting. I like Dr Wen. A while ago, I posted here that she was one of the first health officials I heard saying we have to stop giving mixed messages. I also like Dr Faust.
Below is pretty much the verbatim discussion. Apologize for typos. I typed as they spoke on my iPad which isn’t as easy as a PC
Dr Jeremy Faust Mgh/Brigham and Harvard Medical…
Two highly respected FDA officials resigned because they felt for first time science was not leading. One of the only things trump got right was to allow science to lead in vaccines. Now we are rushing when we didn’t at the start, even with a huge crisis. We waited for safety regulators then. Now we are rushing when the crisis is not among vaccinated but is among unvaccinated.
The safety measures in Israel are not Adequate at this time. They have not been properly described, even by Dr Fauci. The American people need to know what it means.
Dr Leana Wen….. the White House did the right thing to say if you are vaccinated you are protected but with delta variant the protection is declining. Data shows that a third dose reduces protection by ten times. She thinks FDA and CDC could say that, even if not approved at this time, they allow people to have a third dose. It is a patients choice.
Dr Faust……people cannot make an informed decision if they do not have the data. At the moment data in Israel is only on data for people over 60. That data shows a third does does boost immunity but risk of hospitalization or severe illness is the same. The question is how long does the protection in 60+ last.
If months and years…then approve them. If less or if it doesn’t protect younger people, who have a much higher rate of adverse effects, that is important. If we roll it out to them without data, they will be shooting ourselves in the foot if there is a subgroup of younger males, especially, who have a chance of negative affects…..especially if the third dose doesn’t help them…but hurts them.
Dr Faust …Crucial question is …how long does it last for 60+ group
Dr wen…. agrees there may be a risk benefit for different groups of people. People who are Immune compromised should think about third vaccine which Dr Faust agrees with.
Both agreed that more important is to get unvaccinated vaccinated than run up the score and have third booster
This is wrong.
“ Data shows that a third dose reduces protection by ten times.” It INCREASES not reduces
I was going to point that out. Thank you.
Whew! Thanks Vicki. 🙂
I’m surprised there isn’t more than that. I saw another but it is pretty easily figured out. Not easy trying to keep up with talking.
The conversation fascinated me. I don’t agree with Dr Wen that we should not wait for the data and it should be a choice . Dr Faust was right. They’d shoot themselves in the foot. We bungled the vaccines with mixed messages but at least the science was right because we waited for it. Even with mixed messages we created mistrust. I can’t imagine the outcry if data shows a booster/third shot jeopardizes one group of folks….or even if it is discovered that it only adds a month of higher efficacy.
If I got my booster prematurely, then there’s not much I can do about it obviously. I figure as long as I feel the same as before then it’s ok with me. It’s been 72 hours and still feel fine. 🙂
My healthcare provider reached out to me via email to get the booster in the first place. If it hadn’t been formerly approved by the CDC then they should have waited. It will probably be approved eventually anyway like everything else has.
I think you said you went to Brigham. They are not offering boosters/third vaccines to anyone other than those at high risks I would have confidence they had good reason to give you yours now.
Faust and Wen agreed that high risk should have third vac now.
Yes, it’s the BWH. Thanks again Vicki. I have no regrets getting the booster early. Still too many mixed messages as you said.
Fenway Park now has a mask mandate.l regardless of vaccination status. It will be interesting how long into the NFL season that Gillette initiates one as well.
Good.
I am concerned about what happens soon due to schools opening.
The state isn’t. They are not reporting covid in schools this year. CDC not reporting breakthroughs. State not reporting covid in schools. Curious isn’t it?
I know there is one family in Sutton who has a child severely immune compromised who has been told another child has been in close contact with an individual with covid.
If children are masked, they are not quarantined. And then there is the test to stay. That worked very well for Abbott who tested daily and yet exposed a group of seniors
https://www.masslive.com/coronavirus/2021/08/state-does-not-plan-to-track-covid-cases-in-massachusetts-schools-this-year-weekly-testing-services-will-still-be-available-for-districts.html
My concern is that a lot of school kids under 12 could get sick with Covid between now and December. Am I correct that a vaccine wouldn’t be ready to be approved until early 2022 at the earliest?
Even if approved, I’m afraid there will be a lot of legitimate hesitancy.
I agree.
JPD. I saw these tweets by Eric topol re moderna and pfeizer antibodies. I remembered you had asked for data. You, I am sure, will understand it a whole lot better than I.
https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1434147305800667139?s=21
https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1434230261802156041?s=21
https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1434230261802156041?s=21
Thank you. Could only read some due to the annoying sign up pop-ip that block most of it if I enlarge to read it.
I do not have a twitter account. Too easy for wackos to follow you on twitter.
Darn. Let me take screen shots
I took zoomed out screen shots then zoomed in. I think I got them in order. Good luck
https://imgur.com/a/zl02Lqy
Photo 4 and 5 I think need to be reversed but I suspect clear enough to follow
Good stuff. thank you. Now happy the Mrs. and I got the Moderna. At the time, we thought Pfizer was the better vaccine..
Awesome
I just took what I could get and was lucky it was moderna. My girls and spouses all had pfeizer but son and wife had JJ. I saw a report recently that JJ seems to be holding its efficacy better. I may be wrong in that.
3 Miami-Dade County Public Schools teachers and another 12 staff members — bus drivers, security monitors, cafeteria workers, custodians, etc. — have died from Covid-19 in the last 10 days.
No words. Just tears
Me, too. And I get so angry when people say, “oh, the vast majority weren’t vaccininated” … or, “most had underlying health conditions.” I’m so sick of hearing that. It’s almost as if people are saying “well, they had it coming.” One would think that Covid would have made us all have more empathy and less of a weirdly 19th century Darwinian view of mankind. Yes, we wish more people would have gotten vaccinated. And yes, having underlying health conditions predisposes us to more severe disease from Covid and many other diseases. But, many of the underlying health conditions mentioned for some who passed away are very common in many of us: chronic hypertension and diabetes. Further, and most importantly, it’s really awful that we’re losing so many people every damn day: Fathers, mothers, uncles, aunts, sons, daughters. As a nation, we’re reverting to life expectancy numbers last seen in the 1970s and 80s and very few seem to care. That’s really bad. I saw this with HIV in the 1980s and early 90s, and it startled me every time I’d come back to the U.S. I literally heard people tell me back then, “well, they’re gay and promiscuous,” to which I’d respond, “well, they’re humans, and you do know that HIV kills heterosexuals, too.” The response I’d get was just as heartless: “Yeah, but they’re drug users and prostitutes.”
Good lord, there’s something off about America. Although it’s nominally the most Christian wealthy, industrialized country – in terms of percentages attending church – it’s sometimes the least Christian in terms of actual behavior. The weak, the vulnerable, the sick, the marginalized, the outcasts, they were Jesus Christ’s children, if you will. Somehow that’s been lost in some of the American versions of Christianity.
You sure brought back a memory of Mac when he would return to this country when aids was so prevalent and the cavalier attitude.
I am repeating but, at a recent board of health meeting, a man stood to object to masks in schools. He, like many others, like to use the “it is only a small percentage of children who will be affected or who are will die.” The board chair just looked at him for a few moments and said quietly but in a tone that should have given him pause….
“One child is one child too many.”
And he just kept on which is asinine comments.
I don’t know what we have become but it is truly beyond what I ever dreamed possible
I now of six unvaccinated folks who have been given vaccine cards from medical folks and two who are looking for someone to give them one.
Ya know that end of life that we didn’t think was possible …..in a decent world, I would never have thought it was possible. We are truly our own worst enemy
If you know of people with falsified vaccine cards – report em so the law can get to the bottom of who is giving them out.
Sadly, I don’t know them or I would. It was a first thought I had. I just know of them. But I was going to try and figure out who they got them from.
Tom Brady admitted he got covid soon after the boat parade this year.
C-19 for 9-5 is ready.