Wednesday September 8 2021 Forecast (7:23AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)

High pressure moves offshore today and a southerly air flow develops and strengthens ahead of an approaching trough and frontal system from the west. While we see lots of sun during the day today, you’ll notice more clouds showing up later and those will increase significantly this evening. This time when we get into unsettled weather with some threat of heavier rainfall, it will all take place pretty much during the calendar day Thursday, between the two midnights, as a frontal boundary slowly moves west to east across the region and a wave of low pressure forms on it. This will create waves of showers and a few possible embedded thunderstorms. Downpours are possible but this time we won’t see them as intense and widespread for longer time like we saw with a couple recent systems. We’ve had a little time to dry out since Ida’s remains came through last week, so while some localized flooding is possible, it should not be a major issue. It’s back to fair weather Friday as Canadian high pressure approaches with a drying northwesterly breeze, and then a spectacular weekend follows with high pressure in control, coolest early Saturday as the high center will be moving overhead, warmest Sunday afternoon as the high slides offshore.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 76-83. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts above 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Showers arriving from west to east. Downpours and embedded thunderstorms possible. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts above 20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Numerous to widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms possible. Humid. Highs 71-78. Wind S 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, becoming variable.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with lingering showers and patches of fog in the evening. Clearing overnight. Humid evening, less humid overnight. Lows 56-63. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming NW.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 51-58. Wind NW under 10 MPH becoming calm.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 72-79. Wind calm then SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 53-60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)

A weak low and frontal system will move through the region on September 13 with some cloudiness and a risk of a few passing showers, otherwise dry. High pressure brings fair weather to the region September 14 into September 15 with a cooler start then warming up. Next frontal system brings shower chances late September 15 to early September 16 followed by fair, cooler/drier weather later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)

A generally zonal (west-to-east) flow pattern is expected. Current medium range timing suggests the best shower threat comes in the middle of the period with fair/mild weather to start, fair and briefly cooler thereafter.

42 thoughts on “Wednesday September 8 2021 Forecast (7:23AM)”

  6. Thanks, TK.

    Tom, your remark reminded me about the school picture day cartoons in the “Calvin and Hobbes” comic strip. Thanks for putting a smile on my face!

  10. JpDave I was thinking the same thing that thankfully this front is slowing down and not coming through here during peak heating. If this front was coming through during peak heating it would be an interesting afternoon here.

  12. TK – can you clarify what the term PWAT means in the NWS reports? Is it the amount of rain potential but not what is likely to actually fall? It always seems higher than local forecasts. For example, it shows some areas receiving upwards of 3 inches tomorrow which is well above anything I have seen. Thanks.

    1. You got it.
      PWAT stands for precipitable water, which is defined as “measure of the depth of liquid water at the surface that would result after precipitating all of the water vapor in a vertical column over a given location.

    2. Where did you come across that? Someone’s idea of a joke?
      Quite a headline there. 🙂

      NO tornadoes in the MID_ATLANTIC today! We insist!

      1. That was (is) a real headline from this morning. Needless to say, not much interest in scientific accuracy there.

        Fingers crossed on the no tornadoes!

        And hi Vicki! 🙂

        1. YIKES!!!! A real headline! Pretty pathetic! Thanks for sharing as it brightened up my day. Much appreciated.

  21. Good morning!
    Thanks as always, TK

    I believe there was a tornado-warned cell in the Storrs CT area a couple of hours ago.

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